How bad is Marion's contract?

[elindholm]

I was among the first to fault the Colangelos for maxing out Marion prematurely. But I think some of us are getting carried away about just how bad his contract is. I used hoopshype to make a list of the 42 players in the league who were paid at least $10 million this season -- Marion just made the cut. And while I'd imagine that most of us would not consider Marion to be in the league's top 42 players, there are a lot of players who were even more overpaid this year.

True, Marion's contract goes on forever, while most of the other bloated deals in the league are drawing near to their merciful conclusions. But even so, I think we can consider ourselves relatively fortunate if Marion's deal is the worst one the Suns have.

Don't know whether that's any consolation!

In the list, the numbers are millions of dollars paid in 2003-04, and an asterisk indicates a contract expiring this summer.

Kevin Garnett 29.0
Shaquille O’Neal 26.2
Dikembe Mutombo 17.1
Rasheed Wallace 17.0*
Allan Houston 15.9
Shawn Kemp 14.9*
Chris Webber 14.5
Damon Stoudamire 14.4
Shareef Abdur-Rahim 13.5
Ray Allen 13.5
Kobe Bryant 13.5
Penny Hardaway 13.5
Allen Iverson 13.5
Stephon Marbury 13.5
Antonio McDyess 13.5*
Latrell Sprewell 13.5
Antoine Walker 13.5
Zydrunas Ilgauskas 13.4
Michael Finley 13.3
Grant Hill 13.3
Tracy McGrady 13.3
Jalen Rose 13.3
Keith Van Horn 13.3
Jason Kidd 13.1
Jermaine O’Neal 13.1
Tim Duncan 12.5
Eddie Jones 12.3
Brian Grant 12.2
Vlade Divac 12.1*
Antonio Davis 12.0
Tim Thomas 11.8
Tom Gugliotta 11.7*
Vince Carter 11.3
Antawn Jamison 11.3
Dirk Nowitzki 11.3
Paul Pierce 11.3
Elton Brand 11.0
Nick Van Exel 10.9
Glenn Robinson 10.3
Theo Ratliff 10.2
Baron Davis 10.1
Shawn Marion 10.1

Incidentally, if anyone's looking for Steve Francis, he made $9.93 million this year.

 

[Joe Mama]

It's really not in the consolation, but thanks for trying. It really doesn't make me feel any better than other teams have the same problems. And like you said, most of those contracts will be ending soon while Shawn Marion's is just beginning.

If he can consistently hit his jump shot Shawn Marion could probably fetch $7-8 million. The way he played most of last season he would probably get a contract starting at $5-7 million.

I had this argument on another message board some time ago. I contend that if the Phoenix Suns left Shawn Marion unprotected in the expansion draft the Charlotte Bobcats would not take him.


Joe Mama

 

[Krangodnzr]

The NBA needs to get rid of guaranteed contracts in the next CBA...

 

[elindholm]

I contend that if the Phoenix Suns left Shawn Marion unprotected in the expansion draft the Charlotte Bobcats would not take him.

I absolutely agree. Marion has shown no indication that he can lead a team. Given the Bobcats' salary restraints, if they were to take Marion, they wouldn't be able to afford any other good players (in free agency or otherwise).

 

[cly2tw]

I contend that if the Phoenix Suns left Shawn Marion unprotected in the expansion draft the Charlotte Bobcats would not take him.

I absolutely agree. Marion has shown no indication that he can lead a team. Given the Bobcats' salary restraints, if they were to take Marion, they wouldn't be able to afford any other good players (in free agency or otherwise).

Exactly. In terms of economics, the opportunity cost of taking him is too high for the Bobcats. In this sense, it's also a big favor others would be doing to us by taking Marion off our hand. This explains why at least our #1 + JJ are needed to get McGrady. It'd still be a steal if we throwed in Barbosa to the deal.

 

[Mad Psyentist]

wow, i dont know if im mistaken, but from the way you all are putting things, it almost seems like you all think marion has negative trade value because of his contract. If his contract is really such a burden on us, i bet tons of teams out there would love to take marion off our hands for an expiring contract.

 

[George O'Brien]

wow, i dont know if im mistaken, but from the way you all are putting things, it almost seems like you all think marion has negative trade value because of his contract. If his contract is really such a burden on us, i bet tons of teams out there would love to take marion off our hands for an expiring contract.

I'm sure GS would take Marion for NVE in heartbeat.

The question I keep asking is what free agent SF is available for $5-7 who can be obtained to replace Marion? I was looking thought this summer's free agent list and it is not very inspiring. RealGM

Am I missing someone? All I want is someone who can average 19 ppg and 9 rpg and over 2 steals per game while shooting over 44%.

 

[F-Dog]

The NBA needs to get rid of guaranteed contracts in the next CBA...

The NBA and the NFL both allow for guaranteed and non-guaranteed contracts. (Most) NBA contracts are guaranteed because that's what makes sense from an economic and salary-cap-management standpoint.



IMO, Suns fans complaining about Marion's extra $2m/yr is like playoff losers complaining about the officiating--it almost certainly wouldn't/won't make a difference, so why bother? (The Kings two years ago are the only team I can think of who could legitimately argue that bad calls cost them a championship.)

The Spurs are eating something like $7m this year just thanks to Ron Mercer; I don't see any Spurs fans getting bent out of shape over it, though.


Would Marion get taken by Charlotte in the expansion draft? Maybe, since they could turn around and trade him to another team. I agree it doesn't make much sense to have a $10m complementary player if your team stinks and you're bound by a $30m hard cap.

Would it make sense for the Suns to leave him unprotected? I don't think so, since there's little chance they could replace his contributions through free agency if he was taken. The Suns might not even be able to spend the salcap space they've got now in a way that's frugal and helps the franchise.


Maybe Marion will get seriously injured or fail to regain his shot, or maybe the cap number will keep going down every year. If neither of those things happen, though, Marion's contract won't look out of place in five years.

Well, not in three years, anyway...

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Good post FDog.

About the guaranteed contracts:

There has been random articles that the owners and David Stern want to shorten the length of guaranteed contracts. 4 years for a FA, and 5 for your own player. It would be almost impossible to do away with them completely, but I like the idea of the 4 and 5 year plan.

 

[Joe Mama]

wow, i dont know if im mistaken, but from the way you all are putting things, it almost seems like you all think marion has negative trade value because of his contract. If his contract is really such a burden on us, i bet tons of teams out there would love to take marion off our hands for an expiring contract.

IMO we would probably all be surprised with what other teams offered for Shawn Marion alone. Most of the offers would probably come from teams with deep pocket books, and they probably wouldn't be that great.

I'm sure GS would take Marion for NVE in heartbeat.

The question I keep asking is what free agent SF is available for $5-7 who can be obtained to replace Marion? I was looking thought this summer's free agent list and it is not very inspiring. RealGM

Am I missing someone? All I want is someone who can average 19 ppg and 9 rpg and over 2 steals per game while shooting over 44%.

How about Donyell Marshall? He's only making $4.5 million per season. He may not get 2 steals per game, but he also won't need help defending all of those bigger threes that liked to post up Shawn Marion frequently.

IMO, Suns fans complaining about Marion's extra $2m/yr is like playoff losers complaining about the officiating--it almost certainly wouldn't/won't make a difference, so why bother? (The Kings two years ago are the only team I can think of who could legitimately argue that bad calls cost them a championship.)

The Spurs are eating something like $7m this year just thanks to Ron Mercer; I don't see any Spurs fans getting bent out of shape over it, though.


Would Marion get taken by Charlotte in the expansion draft? Maybe, since they could turn around and trade him to another team. I agree it doesn't make much sense to have a $10m complementary player if your team stinks and you're bound by a $30m hard cap.

Would it make sense for the Suns to leave him unprotected? I don't think so, since there's little chance they could replace his contributions through free agency if he was taken. The Suns might not even be able to spend the salcap space they've got now in a way that's frugal and helps the franchise.


Maybe Marion will get seriously injured or fail to regain his shot, or maybe the cap number will keep going down every year. If neither of those things happen, though, Marion's contract won't look out of place in five years.

Well, not in three years, anyway...

Ron Mercer? Nobody in San Antonio is complaining about him because he's been cut, and his salary comes off their books at the end of this year. He doesn't have 6 years left on a maximum salary that is going to keep getting bigger and bigger.

Shawn Marion was overpaid by at least $3 million this season. His salary is going to keep getting worse and worse also. Unless he suddenly improves drastically he will be overpaid by at least $4.4 million next season. It will keep getting worse and worse.

I'm not suggesting the Phoenix Suns just unload Shawn Marion for nothing. I'm just saying he is overpaid, and I expect a lot more from a player making his kind of money.

Joe Mama

 

[scotsman13]

Dikembe Mutombo 17.1
Rasheed Wallace 17.0*
Allan Houston 15.9
Shawn Kemp 14.9*
Damon Stoudamire 14.4
Shareef Abdur-Rahim 13.5
Penny Hardaway 13.5
Allen Iverson 13.5
Antoine Walker 13.5
Zydrunas Ilgauskas 13.4
Michael Finley 13.3
Grant Hill 13.3
Jalen Rose 13.3
Keith Van Horn 13.3
Eddie Jones 12.3
Brian Grant 12.2
Vlade Divac 12.1*
Antonio Davis 12.0
Tim Thomas 11.8
Tom Gugliotta 11.7*
Vince Carter 11.3
Antawn Jamison 11.3
Nick Van Exel 10.9
Glenn Robinson 10.3
Theo Ratliff 10.2
Baron Davis 10.1

everyone left on this list i wouldnt trade marion strainght up for. i believe that marion is a better player then any of these players. he brings more to the table every night then any of of this guys or they (others in the list) bring so much bagage with them that they arent worth having on a team (a.i. and wallace))

 

[elindholm]

By my count, you deleted more than 1/3 of the list, so I'm not sure what point you're making. I already said that, while Marion's contract is bad, there are others that are worse.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I would place Marion well into the top 42 players in the league. I would go as far as to say he is a top 30 player with the season he had last year.

As to why Suns fans whine about Marion's contract, well it is because it seems that some people aren't happy unless they are whining about this team in some fashion.

No one really complained about Marion until Penny left. Now he is the whipping boy.

 

[elindholm]

No one really complained about Marion until Penny left.

Selective memory. Some of us have been saying that Marion is overpaid ever since he signed his extension.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

No one really complained about Marion until Penny left.

Selective memory. Some of us have been saying that Marion is overpaid ever since he signed his extension.

Well actually you have been saying it...no one really paid attention...then the whiners took up your banner and ran with it.

 

[Chaplin]

I'm not suggesting the Phoenix Suns just unload Shawn Marion for nothing. I'm just saying he is overpaid, and I expect a lot more from a player making his kind of money.

Joe Mama

Like what? What does he need to do to convince you? Put up Kobe Bryant numbers?

 

[Chaplin]

No one really complained about Marion until Penny left.

Selective memory. Some of us have been saying that Marion is overpaid ever since he signed his extension.

But the real question is does this overpayment of Shawn Marion drastically affect the ability of the Suns to improve the team. Joe says that we are overpaying him 3 million dollars.

I don't know about you, but in today's NBA, I think 3 million dollars isn't THAT much money.

 

[elindholm]

Well actually you have been saying it...no one really paid attention...then the whiners took up your banner and ran with it.

Joe Mama has been saying it all along too.

 

[Chaplin]

Joe Mama has been saying it all along too.

 

[cly2tw]

Fallacy #1: Not many SFs produce what Marion does, so Marion's value is high.

It's about the team. You can have a 10 mil SF and 4 mil SG on your starting five or 10mil SG but 4 mil SF. That no other SF would have the same stats Marion has does not imply that the team won't be better off by having a low-pay SF like Bowen or Marshall or Jim Jackson but an expensive SG/PG/C like Kobe/Nash/Camby.

Fallacy #2: He is only 2-3 mil overpaid at most, not a big problem in NBA.

This is correct if the team does not have cap room to sign free agent. In Suns case, if he was hypothetically taken in the expansion draft and we could ship White with our pick. Then we'd have enough cap to sign Kobe (14m), Camby(7m), and Marshall(5m). Without trading White, we'd be able to get Kobe, Marshall and sign Vujanic. Or if you trust JJ on SF, Kobe and Camby. With our #7 pick still there. It's all about the opportunities you lose by having his 11mil on your cap.

Fallacy #3: Marion is a top 30 NBA talent.

By stats or in the fantasy league, maybe. But the best test is to envision an hypothetical "reorganization draft" in NBA, with all the current NBA players as draftees to be picked one by one by the 30 teams trying to build a franchise. Even with no regard to the current contracts, which team would draft Marion in the first round? I claim that a sound team needs at least two good-great one-on-one scorer or one that and one great defensive stopper a la Ben Wallace, or a PG. So, I don't think any team would pick Marion even in the 2nd round. Considering his max contract, he might be picked late in the 3rd round or even later, after the Marshall's, Harpring's, Bowen', Jim Jackson's of the world are taken already.

 

[Chaplin]

Sad that now that Penny's gone, all of a sudden Shawn is the whipping boy.

sigh. I guess it had to happen to someone...

 

[Joe Mama]

Like what? What does he need to do to convince you? Put up Kobe Bryant numbers?

How many times does this need to be said? It's not about numbers. It's about what he actually brings to the table. As I said earlier, he's overpaid by $3 million this season, but he's at the beginning of a maximum contract that gets bigger and bigger.

When Shawn Marion first signed his extension I'd offended it. However it did not take Eric but a short time to convince me it was a bad idea. To be honest I still don't think the Phoenix Suns could have kept him for much less because somebody would have offered him the max or damn near it last summer as a restricted free agent. Since the Suns were so far over the salary cap it would have taken no sense to let him walk. Even if they weren't it would be tough to let him go for nothing.

So I'm not suggesting there was a simple solution.

I'll tell you guys what. If Shawn Marion can get his shot back and start playing some good, sound defense I won't say anything about his maximum contract. That is until he's making $15 million + in a few years.

Joe Mama

 

[Chaplin]

It IS about numbers! That's what it's ALWAYS about in the NBA! If not actual numbers, then PROJECTED numbers! Heck, the amount he's overpaid is a NUMBER...

I'm not saying he ISN'T overpaid, all I'm saying is that it isn't as big a deal as you keep making it out to be.

 

[George O'Brien]

It IS about numbers! That's what it's ALWAYS about in the NBA! If not actual numbers, then PROJECTED numbers! Heck, the amount he's overpaid is a NUMBER...

I'm not saying he ISN'T overpaid, all I'm saying is that it isn't as big a deal as you keep making it out to be.

One of the reasons it was important that the Suns were sold was that it became clear that the Colangelos could not afford to lose the kind of money their high salary structure had created. The new owners should be able to handle a payroll in the mid $60s without forgoing the MLE or using draft picks to dump salary.

Realistically, the Suns have made a number of moves over the years that were mistakes. How about Thunder Dan for Hot Rod Williams? How about signing Luc Longley? How about signing Googs and Penny to max deals? As blunders go, giving Marion too much money is really pretty minor.

 

[Joe Mama]

It IS about numbers! That's what it's ALWAYS about in the NBA! If not actual numbers, then PROJECTED numbers! Heck, the amount he's overpaid is a NUMBER...

I'm not saying he ISN'T overpaid, all I'm saying is that it isn't as big a deal as you keep making it out to be.

It's not about numbers when you are figuring what somebody's actual words to the team is. Besides, you know I'm talking about filling up a stat sheet, not salary. There's a big difference.

One of the reasons it was important that the Suns were sold was that it became clear that the Colangelos could not afford to lose the kind of money their high salary structure had created. The new owners should be able to handle a payroll in the mid $60s without forgoing the MLE or using draft picks to dump salary.

The Colangelos could have and would have handled a large team salary if the product on the court had a chance at a championship. I think you're mistaken if you think this new owner is going to throw around money like they do in Portland, Dallas, or New York. I'm sure this guy wants to win, but he also wants to make money.

Joe Mama