How Far Away Is This Team?

[George O'Brien]

I picked this up on another board. I it is limited, but interesting:

We are really not that far off let me explain:
This year we have played in 55 games
of those 55 we have lost 37
of those 37 we have lost 27 by 5 points or less
That means that 49% of the total games that we have played we have lost by 5 points or less that doesn't sound as impressive as the fact that 79% of the games we have lost (37) we have only lost by 5 or less in 27 of them!

Most information I have looked says that the only way to learn to close out games is by playing in close ones and gaining a "swagger" as a team.

I think that most 5 point differences can be over come in the last 1:30 of a game or even less.
Lets say we won just 50% of those games this year 13 1/2 games lets round up 14 games.

Then our record would be 32 wins 23 losses .718 or 2nd place in the western conf. just under Sac (.740)
and thats only winning 50% of the games that we have lost by 5 points or less.

My point is we are not as bad/Far off as people think You could even say we are consistently about 1:30 out of being one of the best teams in the NBA and thats before any draft picks, free agents, or superstar europian point guards.

The cure, most say time. We do have to remember that we have the youngest team in the NBA, so time is something we should have.

BTW, Of the Suns 18 wins, 8 have been by 5 points or less.

 

[elindholm]

BTW, Of the Suns 18 wins, 8 have been by 5 points or less.

Whew, thanks for saving me the trouble.

Okay, so the Suns are 10-10 in games decided by more than 5 points, and 8-27 in games decided by 5 points or less. Do I have that right?

Why does the original poster give the Suns 50% wins in their close losses, but not give up any of the close wins? That doesn't make much logical sense. And also, no team is the league is so good that they win half the time when down by 5 with 1:30 to go.

If you figure that, with experience, the Suns will be able to win 50% of all close games, then that would put them right at .500. Which is certainly an improvement, but not exactly elite.

Fans of bad teams are always inventing explanations for why their team isn't so bad.

 

[slinslin]

Depending on draft and free agency we could have one of the biggest turnarounds in NBA history.

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by elindholm
BTW, Of the Suns 18 wins, 8 have been by 5 points or less.

Whew, thanks for saving me the trouble.

Okay, so the Suns are 10-10 in games decided by more than 5 points, and 8-27 in games decided by 5 points or less. Do I have that right?

Why does the original poster give the Suns 50% wins in their close losses, but not give up any of the close wins? That doesn't make much logical sense. And also, no team is the league is so good that they win half the time when down by 5 with 1:30 to go.

If you figure that, with experience, the Suns will be able to win 50% of all close games, then that would put them right at .500. Which is certainly an improvement, but not exactly elite.

Fans of bad teams are always inventing explanations for why their team isn't so bad.

Another way to look at is that the difference between this year and last year is actually very small. Last year the Suns won a lot of close games and this year they aren't.

Actually I was a bit surprised that the Suns had won so many games by more than 5. I guess I don't remember the wins very well.

 

[Joe Mama]

Originally posted by George O'Brien
Another way to look at is that the difference between this year and last year is actually very small. Last year the Suns won a lot of close games and this year they aren't.

Actually I was a bit surprised that the Suns had won so many games by more than 5. I guess I don't remember the wins very well.

Bingo! Last year the Phoenix Suns were getting great fourth quarters from their best players. This year even before the Marbury trade the Phoenix Suns have floundered in the fourth, more specifically the final 2-3 minutes.

Joe Mama

 

[Yuma]

That's true. Not even Penny or Marbury were saving us in the fourth like last year. Something cahnged from the year before. The only guy we got rid of before the year that played ANY minutes at all for us was Bo Outlaw. I know everyone keeps discounting his efforts, but he was the only guy doing the dirty work needed, screens, screening out, taking charges, etc. that helps teams win. I can't remember all the charges he took at the end of games for us. We have no unselfish player who does those kind of things right now. Harvey was playing like that, but D'Antoni won't let him off the bench at all!! I remember Harvey putting in some good minutes for us early on.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Jake has been doing that all year, he just makes a few mistakes now and then


Also, I think a big deal is our clutch shooting has been down. No knock against Marbury's play this year, but he was simply missing shots at the end of the game he would have made last year.

Last season, I think the only player I would want to take a last second shot above Marbury was Kobe. He was that clutch.

Another thing, Amare has missed a large percentage of games this year. Our record without him during Dec and Jan was attrocious. Even if he isn't putting up great numbers, he changes the entire look of the game. The team suddenly has a reliable post presence, that teams cannot ignore. This opened up shots for Penny and Steph last year. Also, he adds a whole new look on defense. Jake can body up his man, but he isn't a threat to block shots like Amare is. Lastly, he can be a force on the boards when he is motivated to do so. A handful of games this year were lost on the last 3 possesions because the suns could not keep the other team from getting offensive boards.

 

[Ryanwb]

How Far Away Is This Team?

Pretty far

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Originally posted by elindholm

Fans of bad teams are always inventing explanations for why their team isn't so bad.

Being a fan of the Cardinals, I know this all too well. There are always reasons and excuses why your teams sucks that year, and why they will be better. It is extremely easy to rationalize it. However, while the Suns manage to keep it close, learning to win is possibly to most difficult thing to do in any sport. Having the killer instinct and will to win, while they sound cliche, are quite important, and I am not sure that this team is anywhere close to that.

 

[elindholm]

There are always reasons and excuses why your teams sucks that year, and why they will be better. It is extremely easy to rationalize it. However, while the Suns manage to keep it close, learning to win is possibly to most difficult thing to do in any sport. Having the killer instinct and will to win, while they sound cliche, are quite important, and I am not sure that this team is anywhere close to that.

This is well put. There were times last season when the Suns definitely did have the killer instinct, as has been noted before. There is really no other explanation than Marbury's leadership. His leadership this season wasn't nearly as much in evidence, for whatever reason, and the magic remained elusive. But the team is in desperate need now of someone who can step up and fill that void.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Originally posted by elindholm

There is really no other explanation than Marbury's leadership. His leadership this season wasn't nearly as much in evidence, for whatever reason, and the magic remained elusive. But the team is in desperate need now of someone who can step up and fill that void. [/B]

It is interesting, in the first few weeks of the season, there were opportunities to pull out close games, and for whatever reason, it didn't happen. Jason Kidd, while a wonderful player, was not someone to take the last shot, and never had that role. One of the primary reasons in bringing Marbury in was to find someone to hit the big shot, and we all know how many times Marbury did that last year. Suddenly, the plan changes, and we have a new "core".
I guess the idea is to hope a star and leader comes from this group. Who from this group has that ablility though? Johnson? Stoudemire? These two still seem to be very good complimentary players, but neither seems to have good leadership skills. Any thoughts?

 

[George O'Brien]

Was the difference Bo or Stephon or other stuff? Maybe all three.

For one reason or another the chemistry of this team was bad from the start of training camp.

-- Marion seemed to lose his outside shot after bulking up over the offseason and was even less willing to attack the basket.

-- Stephon's outside shot was less effective and teams backed in the paint and dared him to shoot jumpers, which he routinely missed.

-- Williams was injured during training camp and was not as effective on defense as he once was.

-- Stoudemire spent the summer recovering from foot surgery and was not able to train as hard as before, yet teams double teamed him.

-- Neither Hardaway nor Johnson started the season well. Hardaway was less effective than he was a year ago and JJ was very inconsistent prior to the trade.

-- The offensive schemes that worked for the Suns last season were less effective as opponents learned how to defense them; but Frank Johnson made no adjustments.

-- Bo Outlaw's skill at the trapping defense was not replaced by someone with the same energy and skill.

The injuries to Stoudemire and Carbakapa were significant, but the team was not playing well before that.

 

[Chaz]

Originally posted by ASUCHRIS

I guess the idea is to hope a star and leader comes from this group. Who from this group has that ablility though? Johnson? Stoudemire? These two still seem to be very good complimentary players, but neither seems to have good leadership skills. Any thoughts?

Because of their age they are complimentary players right now, but both Johnson and Stoudemire have the abilities to be much more.

I see Stoudemire as the focus, with Johnson the ultmate complementary player. Stoudemire will have to fit in as a role player for right now but by late next season I expect we should see glimpses of the player he could become. Once Amare and Joe learn how to play together, and with Marion where he can be effective, the Suns will have a very nice team.

The championship part will come with these developments and some skillful completion of the roster.


You guys are right on about the void of the "killer instinct" since the departure of Stephon. They will definatley need to develop or aquire that as a team if they hope to challange in this league.

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by SirChaz
Because of their age they are complimentary players right now, but both Johnson and Stoudemire have the abilities to be much more.

I see Stoudemire as the focus, with Johnson the ultmate complementary player. Stoudemire will have to fit in as a role player for right now but by late next season I expect we should see glimpses of the player he could become. Once Amare and Joe learn how to play together, and with Marion where he can be effective, the Suns will have a very nice team.

The championship part will come with these developments and some skillful completion of the roster.

You guys are right on about the void of the "killer instinct" since the departure of Stephon. They will definatley need to develop or aquire that as a team if they hope to challange in this league.

I agree, but another factor will be how quickly Barbosa develops. I do not expect him to become a superstar, but he could be major late game factor with his speed, shooting, and ability to steal the ball. If he can develop enough point guard skills to go with his other skills, he could be a big factor on the way the team plays at crunch time.

In another post, I noted that Barbosa's numbers other than minutes played and assists are actually a lot better than Marbury's in his first year. Right now his shooting percentage (45%) is better than any other outside player and three point shooting (40.3%) is second only to that of Jacobsen.

Right now he makes a lot of mistakes, but he also shows signs of billiance.

 

[Errntknght]

I just wonder if you guys are including a sensible NBA coach for the Suns in your fantasies for the future. I haven't seen anything in what D'A has done so far, on either end of the floor, that even hints of his meeting that easy criterion. Also, I haven't seen anything in his remarks about his plans/ideas that inspires confidence that he knows what he's doing.

 

[Joe Mama]

Originally posted by Errntknght
I just wonder if you guys are including a sensible NBA coach for the Suns in your fantasies for the future. I haven't seen anything in what D'A has done so far, on either end of the floor, that even hints of his meeting that easy criterion. Also, I haven't seen anything in his remarks about his plans/ideas that inspires confidence that he knows what he's doing.

I guess I want to see what he does with a healthy team over the last third of the season. Frankly I don't think he gets enough credit for keeping the Suns competitive in almost every game, especially since the trade. That roster had no business being in most of those games.

I was encouraged that D'Antoni said the top priority for Amare Stoudemire for the remainder of the season is to work on his defense.

Joe Mama

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by Errntknght
I just wonder if you guys are including a sensible NBA coach for the Suns in your fantasies for the future. I haven't seen anything in what D'A has done so far, on either end of the floor, that even hints of his meeting that easy criterion. Also, I haven't seen anything in his remarks about his plans/ideas that inspires confidence that he knows what he's doing.

What could he say that would inspire your confidence?

 

[Errntknght]

George O' "What could he say that would inspire your confidence? "

Let's see, he could say things like, "All the double teaming we're doing is killing us - we're going to play straight up man-to-man defense the rest of this year and let the players and coaches learn which opponents in which situations really require doubling. Once we have a handle on that we'll start using them sparingly and one of my assistants will keep a record of every attempt, any flaws in the execution and what resulted from it - so we can learn when it is effective."
I'm not a fan of the motion offense in the NBA but I'd be impressed if I heard something like this, "I've used the motion offense for over ten years and I know it can be effective but it has to be done right from the ground up. I know the players we have will thrive in it. We will implement it next summer. I have no idea why Frank didn't consult with me regarding the MO last year."
I'd rather hear, "We kept on with the old offense because we didn't want to implement a whole new system on the fly. Next year you'll see a real NBA offense, with guys playing where they should be on the floor. Real plays, well executed. Even when you see the guys going one-on-one it will be part of the system with options designed in."
How about, "Small ball sucks... if JC wants to keep the team playing this way he'd going to have to hire another coach!"

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by Errntknght
George O' "What could he say that would inspire your confidence? "

Let's see, he could say things like, "All the double teaming we're doing is killing us - we're going to play straight up man-to-man defense the rest of this year and let the players and coaches learn which opponents in which situations really require doubling. Once we have a handle on that we'll start using them sparingly and one of my assistants will keep a record of every attempt, any flaws in the execution and what resulted from it - so we can learn when it is effective."
I'm not a fan of the motion offense in the NBA but I'd be impressed if I heard something like this, "I've used the motion offense for over ten years and I know it can be effective but it has to be done right from the ground up. I know the players we have will thrive in it. We will implement it next summer. I have no idea why Frank didn't consult with me regarding the MO last year."
I'd rather hear, "We kept on with the old offense because we didn't want to implement a whole new system on the fly. Next year you'll see a real NBA offense, with guys playing where they should be on the floor. Real plays, well executed. Even when you see the guys going one-on-one it will be part of the system with options designed in."
How about, "Small ball sucks... if JC wants to keep the team playing this way he'd going to have to hire another coach!"

He could, but having the reporter die from shock might not be good.

He's certainly hinted that he see's small ball as a stop gap.

I can understand why he has not publicly trashed the offense he is using, because they will have to keep running it for the rest of the season.

As for double teams, he might have to be more honest than he can afford to be about how some players are incompetant man defenders.

So while I would like to know he understands, I am not concerned that he only makes hints and you have to translate some "coach speak" to get a feeling he "gets it". I can't think of any NBA coach that actually comes out and says "we do this because our players aren't very good right now".

 

[Joe Mama]

Since some posters on this message board and said that the small ball love affair starts at the top I thought I would post this question and response from Jerry Colangelo's February 9th KTAR interview. I found it encouraging. Joe Mama


http://www.nba.com/suns/news/ktar_colangelo_040209.html

Burns: (Jake)Voskuhl and Amaré on the court on the same time, two guys I would think you want to have on the court together as much as possible, and yet things seem to be working better when they’re not on the floor at the same time. How do you guys work your way through that?

Colangelo: I agree with that analysis and that’s the way it appears for now, and we’ll see. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. As we look forward down the line, I guess it’s hard to say what’s really going to happen until we bring in a few more people, but I hate to think that we’re going to be a small ball kind of a team. I want to get some additional size out on the court. I think Zarko (Cabarkapa) coming back, yeah he’s thin but he’s 6-11, will make a difference because of his versatility. Bryan (Colangelo) told me that (Antonio) McDyess really looked different today at the workout. He looks like he’s come back a great deal. He took this time off to strengthen his leg, his quads, and we’ll see. We’ll see if he has anything the rest of the way. That’s what this season, as it turns out because of the moves we made, is all about. It’s about preparing for the future and I do feel very good about the emergence of Joe Johnson. Leandro Barbosa has shown that he has an awful lot of talent and a chance to be very good in this league, and Casey (Jacobsen has) done a good job getting minutes and starting to shoot the ball consistently. There’s some good things happening out there, but we need to get a few more bodies out there, this year and next, and we’ll see how we look as we go forward.