insider 1/4/2005 Too many stoppages hurting league scoring

[sunsfn]

Updated: Jan. 4, 2006

Too many stoppages hurting league scoring

By John Hollinger

If I were David Stern, I'd be concerned. Not somebody-just-hacked-into-my-Swiss-bank-account concerned, but worried nonetheless.
I'd be worried because the low-scoring games that were supposed to be eradicated by last year's rule changes are proving to be stubborn pests, and I'd be worried that the cure I introduced may be as bad as the original disease.

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AP Photo/Kevork Djansezian
If only David Stern could clone Steve Nash ...



As we all know, the powers that be in this league have a financial interest in producing fast-paced, high-scoring basketball games -- even if the coaches don't. Up-and-down, flowing games help generate fan interest, which helps sell tickets and merchandise, which ultimately benefits everyone.
That's how things worked during the glory years of the late 1980s and early '90s, but over time the pace slowed and defense gained the upper hand. The nadir was reached in the spring of 2004, when the Pistons and Pacers competed in a well-played, hard-fought and completely unwatchable Eastern Conference finals.
That trough set the stage for last year's crackdown on hand-checking on the perimeter, and it produced a desirable outcome last season. However, one has to wonder if the change will be short-lived.
Through the first two months of this season, NBA teams are averaging 96.3 points per game (all stats are through Tuesday's games). That's a one-point decline from last year's mark of 97.2, which is a move in the wrong direction if you're in Stern's seat.
Fortunately for the commish, that decline may not hold up through April. Historically, NBA offenses have performed better in the second half of the season, and if that trend holds up it should be enough to pull offenses back to the 97.2 mark by year's end.
So why should the commish be concerned? There are a few reasons.
First, I'm guessing he'd like scoring to be even higher and the pace even faster -- certainly anybody who saw Phoenix last year would have to agree. Second, and more important, it's not just that scoring is a bit down thus far, it's the way that it's happening. Essentially, the one thing keeping scoring up at all right now is an avalanche of whistles, which gets in the way of the exciting, open-court game the league would prefer to promote.
To see what I mean, let's take a closer look at the numbers from 2004-05 and compare them to this season. That effort is made easier by one thing that hasn't changed at all from a year ago -- the game pace. Teams are averaging 93.2 possessions per 48 minutes, just as they did a year ago, so we have a ready-made apples-to-apples comparison.

ATS--------2004-05 - 2005-06
Possessions/gm 93.2 -- 93.2
TS % -- -- 52.9 -- 53.0
FG % ---- 44.7 -- 44.9
FTs/48 min - 25.9 -- 26.4
FT % -- - -75.6 -- 74.1

Let's start with shooting. I use a stat called True Shooting Percentage (TS%) to evaluate how many points teams get from their shot attempts, and that mark has hardly budged. The league TS% is 53.0, just a smidgeon ahead of last year's 52.9%. Behind the scenes, however, the elements that go into TS% have changed quite a bit.
For starters, teams are shooting fewer 3-pointers and getting to the basket more. Last season teams shot 3-pointers on 19.6 percent of their possessions; this year that's down to 19.4. Not surprisingly, they're shooting a higher percentage -- overall field-goal percentage is up slightly from 44.7 to 44.9.
But the biggest change is in free-throw attempts. Contrary to what some expected when the rules against perimeter hand-checking came into being last season, referees haven't slackened a bit in their willingness to crack down on the defense. As a result, the league rate of free throws per 48 minutes is up from 25.9 last season to 26.4 this year, and personal fouls are up by a similar amount.
Incidentally, if you're wondering why a rise in field-goal percentage and free-throw attempts wouldn't increase TS%, it's because nobody can make a foul shot. The league is down from 75.6% a year ago to 74.1% this year; one shudders to think what it would be had Shaq been healthy all season.
Regardless, Stern's dilemma remains the same. He wants to sell a high-scoring, dynamic game to his audience, and the obvious way to do that is by tweaking the rules to provide strong incentives for teams to play that style.
Unfortunately, right now the main thing propping up scoring throughout the league is an increase in free-throw attempts, which is a poor way of accomplishing his goal. For starters, the free throw is the least exciting play in basketball. It brings the up-and-down action to a grinding halt while nine players sit and watch one perform -- if we wanted to see that we'd go to a baseball game. Additionally, it makes the games longer, which is never a good idea in today's short-attention-span society.
The idea a year ago was that teams would adjust to the increased vigilance of officials regarding perimeter hand-checking. Fouls would be up at first, the thought went, but once defenses adjusted, fouls would slowly decrease while the floor opened up.
It hasn't happened that way because offenses have adjusted too. No longer held up on the outside by a forearm to the hip, players like Dwyane Wade and Gilbert Arenas are flying to the rim and drawing contact on every play. That's creating more free throws, which has the perverse effect of slowing the action instead of speeding it up.
Additionally, the new interpretation of the rules has made it easier to score in the half court, which has another unintended consequence: Teams have less incentive to fast break. Yes, the Suns are a glorious exception, but for every Phoenix there are two teams carefully micromanaging each possession. That won't change when a player like Wade or Arenas can so easily beat his man off the dribble at the end of the shot clock.
So despite the uptick in scoring since the start of 2004-05, the commish finds himself right back where he started. High scoring and a free-flowing game are proven to produce a hit with fans, but doing so in a way that stops the game every few seconds harms the product at least as much as it helps. Thus, his work in resurrecting the pro game from its turn-of-the-century doldrums isn't done. Without better incentives to fast break and keep the game moving, few teams will willingly play the style of game that the league so desperately wants to sell.

 

[reader]

sunsfn, thanks for posting the article.

I like how he refers to the Suns, glorious .....

Yes, the Suns are a glorious exception, but for every Phoenix there are two teams carefully micromanaging each possession.

 

[nowagimp]

I like how TS going from 52.9 to 53.0 is "hardly budged" but 0.5 extra foul shots a game is a big deal. How about injuries and these stats? Some of the stars(~17-20ppg) that have been out for at least 20% of the games so far are Amare, Magette, TMAC, KMartin, Camby, Ginobli etc. Could that effect scoring John-John?? Hollinger goes on to say that teams are running less because the half court game is easier, and yet, the number of possessions per game is unchanged. Ugh! I guess that means that they shoot the ball just as quickly in the half court set as on a fast break?#! Bull____! How do we know that teams are running less? Where is the stat? Well the suns are running less, but its because STAT is out. Seattle lost alot of depth, and obviously runs less(cant run when youre tired). This article sounds like an eastern conference whiner fan that laments the passing of alot of grabbing, err hand checking, which in reality is still frequently taking place and often not called anyway(watch a pistons game). Nash is handchecked at least 10 times a game without calls. I think a more important stat might be the number of foul disqualifications to starters, which I suspect has not changed. The problem is that the only big negative of fouling a player is the threat of disqualification. Obviously, the players dont trust the system of officiating as they almost always argue calls and posture with the referees to gain political advantage. It is the only sport that allows players to almost endlessly argue calls and "buddy up" to the refs.

 

[jibikao]

I wonder what Stern thinks of our game vs Knicks? How many FT did Knicks attempt?

You wonder why Knicks keep going inside 'cause they keep getting calls. They were only shooting about 38-40% from outside and yes, they will not beat Suns by jump shooting. Games like this really promotes "going inside".

Remember last year's playoffs against Mavs? Didn't both teams averaged like 115-120?? Now, that's what I call HIGH POINT games!!!!!!! Both teams keep scoring, up and down, dunks everywhere. Defense sucked but I think this is a good distinction between college basketball and NBA. I want to see more "fancy" stuff. I don't want to see those "super hard fought" physical games that put me to sleep.

I guess the refs at the Knicks' game didn't get the memo. lol

 

[George O'Brien]

It seems obvious that other teams will attack the basket against the Suns, since they don't have a straight up shot blocker. But I think Hollinger is onto something in that refs call a lot of fouls on incidential contact on drives to the basket but don't call mid court hand checks. This approach clear hurts the Suns because Barbosa is their only guard that really attacks the basket and no one has been able to stop Amare without fouling.

In any case, most NBA coaches will always prefer to attack the basket than rely on jump shoots as long as the defensive three second rule is in place. My read on it early in the season was that the defensive three second rule was being more tightly enforced, so drives to basket returned as the preferred offense.

 

[Errntknght]

The obvious solution is to reduce the shot clock from 24 to 20 or even 16 seconds. The move to reduce it to 14 in certain instances where there wasn't a change of possession was a step in the right direction and certainly hasn't put anyone under great strain. I thought that might be a first step towards a general reduction but there's been no talk of it happening.

Some other things they could do is to instruct the refs not to call touch fouls when a guy is shooting or to just give the guy an extra point when he makes the shot and get on with the game. Actually the two things would go well together - not so easy to get the call but a slightly higher reward when it is made. Hey, just make it a team foul and not a personal foul - keep the better defenders on the floor more. (I'm thinking the refs often need time to make sure the scorer knows who the foul is on, so just do away with it as a personal foul.)

I like the international style of the refs not having to handle the ball when there is a simple change of possession, too. That interrupts the flow of the game to no discernible purpose and often does away with fast break opportunities. It would help us in international play, too.

Personally, I'd like them to cut the time to get the ball over midcourt down some more but that is tricky. Move it down too much and teams will start pressing full court a lot - to me that's the benefit as I like to watch that style of play but I don't think that's what the league powers have in mind.

 

[nowagimp]

The obvious solution is to reduce the shot clock from 24 to 20 or even 16 seconds. The move to reduce it to 14 in certain instances where there wasn't a change of possession was a step in the right direction and certainly hasn't put anyone under great strain. I thought that might be a first step towards a general reduction but there's been no talk of it happening.

Some other things they could do is to instruct the refs not to call touch fouls when a guy is shooting or to just give the guy an extra point when he makes the shot and get on with the game. Actually the two things would go well together - not so easy to get the call but a slightly higher reward when it is made. Hey, just make it a team foul and not a personal foul - keep the better defenders on the floor more. (I'm thinking the refs often need time to make sure the scorer knows who the foul is on, so just do away with it as a personal foul.)

I like the international style of the refs not having to handle the ball when there is a simple change of possession, too. That interrupts the flow of the game to no discernible purpose and often does away with fast break opportunities. It would help us in international play, too.

Personally, I'd like them to cut the time to get the ball over midcourt down some more but that is tricky. Move it down too much and teams will start pressing full court a lot - to me that's the benefit as I like to watch that style of play but I don't think that's what the league powers have in mind.

Rule changes in the NBA take time to effect changes in the game because personnel decisions are often linked to the rules. Example: since the recent more liberal defense rules, a lesser premium has been placed on man-to-man defense and more on the ability to make perimeter shots. It took years when the rules were changed in the early to mid nineties to allow more physical play. Before that time, many of todays post "role players" would not have made the cut, since they are primarily bangers(like Danny Fortson). It will take years for teams to abandon their rosters, made up of physical bangers who dont shoot too well, and retool their rosters to fit an international type game. Until then, coaches will challenge the rule changes by continuing to argue against the new foul limits. Hand checking is still used very often on the perimeter despite the rule changes. The refs are reluctant to call alot of these fouls mostly because they dont want to foul players out. It would be especially unpopular to foul out alot of the home team. Unfortunately, a rapid change in the game requires complete enforcement of the rules, but this isnt going to happen. A more gradual change is more likely. I believe that refs are given specific instructions to avoid inviting fan apathy(imagine fouling out alot of hand-checking pistons in a home game). They are even told to "watch the moving screen by Yao" as we know. Pity they dont watch the moving screen as much on other players, its a problem all over. Many organizations have spent years tooling their rosters to the hard physical game, it will take time to change.

If you dont think the game has become a wrestlers paradise, think of all the big muscle guys in the game who cant shoot. Many teams have players who are safely left alone on defense from 10-12 ft. Now consider the end of the showtime era(1990) and look at the players. Michael Jordan came into the league in '84 at 6'7" and 196 lbs, a stick who would be beaten up by todays players. 8 years later he was still around 205 lbs. He eventually pumped himself to 225lbs after his skills declined. This all happened due to rule changes in the level of permissible physical contact.