Insider 8/22/2005 West loads up for San Antonio

sunsfn

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Updated: Aug. 22, 2005, 1:48 PM ET

West contenders load up for San Antonio showdown



By John Hollinger


Can the San Antonio Spurs be sunk?

That's the question facing several teams in the Western Conference this offseason. With the Spurs having won three titles in seven years and having been serious contenders the other four seasons, there's little doubt the road to the title will go through the Alamo City at some point. The Spurs suffered no important losses in the offseason and largely stood pat, with Argentine center Fabricio Oberto their lone acquisition. Meanwhile, the other Western contenders have been furiously reshaping their rosters in an effort to match San Antonio's talent and cohesiveness.

How have they fared so far? Let's take a look at the changes the top contenders in the West have made and how those moves fit with their goals at the start of the offseason:


Dallas Mavericks

Goals: Improve the D; don't panic
The Mavericks fell short against Phoenix in the postseason, but they have to like how they closed the season. Once Avery Johnson took over, the Mavs went 16-2 and nearly snuck up on San Antonio to take the Southwest Division.

Marquis Daniels' scoring hasn't equaled victories for Dallas.

Dallas resisted the urge to make wholesale changes, which had seemed to be an annual event in Big D. The loss of Michael Finley as a luxury-tax amnesty casualty obviously hurts, but the Mavs can weather that blow. Marquis Daniels should bounce back after an injury-riddled 2004-05 campaign, and the Mavs added defensive specialist Doug Christie, who should team with Josh Howard to give Dallas one Ginobili-stopper on the court at all times.

Of course, Dallas would have received a higher grade if it had done more in the frontcourt. Shawn Bradley retired, and Dallas replaced him by outbidding New York for überstiff DeSagana Diop. (You read that correctly. There was a bidding war for DeSagana Diop.) Thus, the Mavs again are short of candidates to stop Tim Duncan in the post, which could be telling if the two clubs meet in the conference finals. Grade: C+


Denver Nuggets

Goals: Upgrade at shooting guard; add shooters
Denver lost Voshon Lenard on opening night last season and muddled through the season with DerMarr Johnson and Greg Buckner sharing Lenard's shooting-guard spot. However, Denver didn't get nearly enough offense from those two, and the Nuggets' lack of 3-point shooting was a problem all season -- especially in their five-game defeat against San Antonio in the first round, when the Nuggets shot 11-for-42 from downtown.

Unfortunately, Denver might be even worse off this season. Johnson and Buckner both are free agents, as is shooting specialist Wesley Person. Lenard is slated to return, but he's 32 and coming off a serious injury -- and he wasn't that good to begin with.

Worst of all, the Nuggets have struck out completely in the free-agent market. Shooters like Marko Jaric and Michael Finley have rebuffed Denver's advances, forcing GM Kiki Vandeweghe to sift through the Ronald Murrays and Eddie Houses of the world for help. First-round pick Julius Hodge is another option, but he's not a shooter.

Thus, the Nuggets might have to trade from their frontcourt excess (hello, Nene) in order to fill this need. Grade: D-

Houston Rockets

Goals: Get younger; get a power forward
The Rockets also closed the season strongly, but age loomed large heading into the offseason. Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady were the only rotation players under 30, necessitating a quick infusion of youth.

Houston made halting strides in that direction, signing forward Stromile Swift and drafting guard Luther Head, but its advanced age in the backcourt remains a red flag. Mike James is 30, Bob Sura is 32, David Wesley and Charlie Ward are 35, and Jon Barry is 36.

The Swift signing was huge in another respect -- it transformed Houston's greatest weakness (lame production at power forward) into a strength. Swift's 40-minute averages from the past three seasons suggest he'll average close to 20 points, 10 rebounds and three blocks per 40 minutes, numbers Juwan Howard seemingly took weeks to accumulate. Swift's man-to-man defense still needs work, especially if he's going to guard Duncan in the postseason, but his offense alone should add several games to the Rockets' win total. Grade: B+

Phoenix Suns

Goals: Keep the razzle-dazzle, but get tougher
Well, the Suns certainly got tougher.

Phoenix embarked on a quest to become a more physical, defensive-minded team after San Antonio conducted a layup drill on the Suns in the conference finals. Phoenix traded for Kurt Thomas and signed Brian Grant and Raja Bell. Thomas was one of the league's leading rebounders last season and should help out on the boards, while Bell is a hard-nosed defender and Grant a hustling, physical big man. Thomas and Grant also give Phoenix two players who potentially can guard Duncan in crunch time.

The question is whether these acquisitions destroyed everything that made the Suns good in the first place. It's hard to imagine the Suns running-and-gunning to 60 wins again with this roster. Up front, signing Grant was possible only because Phoenix let athletic big man Steven Hunter leave as a free agent, resulting in a serious downgrade at backup center. Trading for Thomas cost the Suns Quentin Richardson and a first-round pick, depriving Phoenix of a scorer on the wings. Meanwhile, Bell's addition was more than offset by the loss of Joe Johnson in free agency, meaning the Suns lost the two men most responsible for their league-leading 3-point barrage.

Moreover, the new guys don't seem to fit the Suns' playing style. It's hard to imagine Steve Nash having similar options on the break this season if he's waiting for Grant or Thomas to get over half court, much as it's difficult to picture Bell creating shots in transition or taking over the point when Nash checks out. Improving the defense was important, but one has to think the Suns overreacted to the conference finals loss to San Antonio. Grade: D+


Sacramento Kings

Goals: Replace C-Webb; build the bench
The Kings had more work to do than most teams after Seattle ran them off the floor in the first round of the playoffs. Fortunately for the Kings, they had an excellent offseason.

Armed only with their mid-level salary exception, they swooped in late to nab high-scoring forward Shareef Abdur-Rahim. He replaces the weak link in the starting lineup, Kenny Thomas, with a nightly 20-10 threat and gives Sacramento one of the game's best starting fives. Much like Detroit, the Kings are light on superstars but each starter is well above average at his position (Abdur-Rahim, Brad Miller, Peja Stojakovic, Bonzi Wells and Mike Bibby).

Signing Abdur-Rahim also puts Sacramento in great shape to rebuild a depleted bench, with Thomas moving to the pine and Corliss Williamson sliding to small forward. Plus, the Kings acquired Jason Hart from Charlotte for a second-round pick and have two assets remaining, restricted free agents Maurice Evans and Darius Songaila. One or both could be converted into a quality backup shooting guard via a sign-and-trade deal. The Kings still could use a big center to lay down the law in the paint, but they've improved themselves as much as any Western contender. Grade: A-


Seattle SuperSonics

Goals: Keep the core; improve the frontcourt
Last season, Seattle matched up with San Antonio the best. The Sonics' physical style frustrated the Spurs and allowed Seattle to extend the series to six tough games despite Rashard Lewis' absence.

That's why the Spurs might be breathing a sigh of relief when they look at Seattle's free-agent departures. The Sonics entered this offseason with virtually everyone on the roster a free agent. Although Seattle kept the most important piece, guard Ray Allen, several other key components have scattered. Super sixth man Antonio Daniels signed with Washington, and forward Damien Wilkins signed an offer sheet with Minnesota. Reggie Evans, Vladimir Radmanovic and Ronald Murray don't have contracts, either. In fact, even the coach left, as Nate McMillan took Paul Allen's bucks to become the new warden in Portland.

Seattle also wanted to improve the frontcourt, which contributed size and fouls but not much scoring last season. On this front, the Sonics have been slightly more successful. They let Jerome James walk, but he was taking minutes away from better players anyway. They re-signed Vitaly Potapenko, and first-round pick Johan Petro should exceed James' output. But losing Daniels in particular was an enormous blow -- Seattle's weak response was signing Rick Brunson -- and as a result the Sonics are very likely to fall off the pace in the West this coming season. Grade: C-

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JS22

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Me thinks somebody doesnt like the Suns? :D
 

boisesuns

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Chaplin said:
Hollinger really dislikes the Suns. He's always been like that.


He must REALLY like the kings then. These preseason/offseason grades are pretty much pointless:)
 

elindholm

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The concerns are valid, however. Last year's starting lineup featured five "horses," and that won't be the case anymore. We're trusting that you don't need all five players running to be effective on the break -- for instance, the Showtime Lakers didn't seem to need Abdul-Jabbar -- but it's only trust at this point. Ditto our optimistic predictions about Bell's scoring and Diaw's ability to step into a rotation spot.

If everything goes right, the Suns will be fine. But just because everything went right last year doesn't mean that it's something one can count on very often.

Of course, a downgrade to 55 or even 52 wins will be just fine for the Suns, as long as they can play tougher in the playoffs.
 

dreamcastrocks

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I agree. With Kurt Thomas grabbing more rebounds, it allows Amare to be on the break more.

If Seattle can be a C- when they lost their coach, and stand to lose 5 players to free agency, there is something completely wrong with his grading scale.
 

scotsman13

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last summer all these people were saying that the suns werent going to make the playoffs. all the experts state that we cant run in the playoffs, all the experts state that our style wont get us anywhere, all of the experts say we need to rebound and play defence to go in the playoffs or to be successful. now that we have players that will help us rebound on the defensive end and get the outlet pass going we cant play the same way. well if we were to leason to them we wouldnt have won 62 games last year or made it to the WCF. i wish they would make up their minds.
 

fordronken

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The same people who said we can't win a championship with our type of roster last year are criticizing us for changing it.
 

goldseraph

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I think Hollinger is overreacting and taking a too simplistic view of the Suns' moves. We didn't keep JJ but we also saved paying him a fortune which we can't really afford unless we traded Marion. Q is erratic, I never liked his game much.. also he has a bad back which could cause trouble down the line. He had a fairly big contract as well for the next 5 years. I think we will actually be tougher in the playoffs if STAT takes another step forward defensively. A frontcourt with KT boarding and brusing, Amare blocking shots, and Marion playing great D and boarding like a freak is going to be quite imposing. Each of those guys is capable of 10-15 rebounds on any given night and all can score.
 

fordronken

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Hollinger also heavily criticized the Hawks shelling out 70 million and two first rounders for Joe Johnson. I wonder if during games, Hollinger just goes online and reads the play-by-play.
 

George O'Brien

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Somehow people think that it is huge loss that the Suns got rid of a relatively slow, short gunner who averages under 36% for three. Q's defense was no great shakes and he relied on spot up rather than quckness to get this shots. Is there any reason to believe Pidgett would be any less effective if he was given green light to gun?

If Grant is even 80% healthy, he will be light years better than Hunter. Hunter had no offensive skills, was too weak to defend the post, and seemed to make the same mistakes over and over.

Obviously losing JJ hurt, but that doesn't mean that JJax and Bill can't get the three point shots he gave.

The truth is the Suns will keep running and the team has even more shooters than last season. People who predict the Suns offense will decline are going to be very disappointed.
 

thegrahamcrackr

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Hollinger simply goes by the stats. He doesn't really know the game of basketball that well from what I have read. I mean he is a very knowledgeable fan, but far from the expert he would like us to believe.

He also doesn't have a very firm grasp on the play characteristics of lesser known players.
 

Treesquid PhD

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If they stay healthy, the biggest issue when bringing in injury prone players is that they won't play. Even the staunchest JJ haters can't deny he was pretty durable and could log long minuets. I am probably more skeptical on most of Jim Jackson and Brian Grant's ability to log significant and consistent minuets at their ages.
 
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sunsfn

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thegrahamcrackr said:
Hollinger simply goes by the stats. He doesn't really know the game of basketball that well from what I have read. I mean he is a very knowledgeable fan, but far from the expert he would like us to believe.

He also doesn't have a very firm grasp on the play characteristics of lesser known players.

Yes, and if some of you did not like Chad Ford, this guy is worse. I really do not like many of his articles. Keeping ESPN insider may get tough if I have to pay to read this guy all year...!
 

coloradosun

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mribnik said:
Brian Grant is a serious downgrade at BACKUP center?

If he really wanted to be accurate he would have stated that Hunter was the Suns only center last year. I would say Kurt Thomas is definite improvement over Hunter. And adding Brian Grant gives us back up at the 4 and 5.
 

thegrahamcrackr

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sunsfn said:
Yes, and if some of you did not like Chad Ford, this guy is worse. I really do not like many of his articles. Keeping ESPN insider may get tough if I have to pay to read this guy all year...!


Agreed
 

fordronken

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At least Chad Ford had contacts with teams and got information out before anybody else did. Reading John Hollinger for basketball information is like getting sex advice from a virgin biology professor.
 

elindholm

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Reading John Hollinger for basketball information is like getting sex advice from a virgin biology professor.

I'll have to take your word for it.
 
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sunsfn

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fordronken said:
At least Chad Ford had contacts with teams and got information out before anybody else did. Reading John Hollinger for basketball information is like getting sex advice from a virgin biology professor.

You are on a roll today ford......... :D :thumbup:
 

cly2tw

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thegrahamcrackr said:
Hollinger simply goes by the stats. He doesn't really know the game of basketball that well from what I have read. I mean he is a very knowledgeable fan, but far from the expert he would like us to believe.

He also doesn't have a very firm grasp on the play characteristics of lesser known players.

Andy,

I thought you guys provided him with those stats. ;) :D
 

thegrahamcrackr

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cly2tw said:
Andy,

I thought you guys provided him with those stats. ;) :D


Nope. Hollinger is in bed with 82games. They provide some neat stats, but everything is just based on IDS stuff.

Our stuff will actually be appearing on NBA.com in some capacity next season if everything goes as planned.
 

hcsilla

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I think that Hollinger was pretty much off with this offseason-grading.

He may not like the Suns' moves but why is he so amazed by the Kings' moves? Getting of SAR isn't that fantastic if they already had 3 PF's.
Wells can mess up their chemistry too. They don't really have a backup C either.

As someone already pointed out SEA got a better grade than the Suns because they may lose everyone not named Ray Allen.
 
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