Insider 9/30/2005 Scouting matchups: week 4

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Friday, September 30, 2005
Scouting Matchups: Week 4

NFL advance scouts watch games in person, studying everything from personnel packages to play-calling signals, and on film, looking at individual players, as well as a team's various schemes and recent trends. The goal? Provide their coaching staff with the best possible means of preparation during the week of practice. Scouts Inc., does the same thing, compiling the best advance scouting reports available and delivering them to you by Tuesday afternoon on ESPN.com Insider. On Friday, after breaking down more game film, Scouts Inc., files an updated report with a deeper look at each game, spotlighting key individual matchups and trends and predicting the final score.

MatchupScouting

SUNDAY OCTOBER 2, 2005

San Diego at New England
Sun 1:00 PM ETChargers at Patriots
The Patriots keep inventing ways to win. One week it will be on the legs of RB Corey Dillon, the next week on the strength of their complex defense, and another week on the foot of ultra-clutch PK Adam Vinatieri, set up by a perfect 12-for-12 fourth quarter performance from the arm of QB Tom Brady



Buffalo at New Orleans
Sun 1:00 PM ETBills at Saints
New Orleans should hand the ball off to RB Deuce McAllister early and often, with QB Aaron Brooks having problems protecting the football, and the defense's performance inconsistent play thus far. However, the Saints have been forced to abandon the running game after falling behind in each of the last two games. Buffalo could try to exploit that developing tendency by taking some chances downfield and trying to get RB Willis McGahee outside in the first quarter. It's critical that New Orleans' defense prevent the big play early.



St. Louis at NY Giants
Sun 1:00 PM ET
Rams at Giants
St. Louis' offensive line play has been shaky at times; its secondary has been depleted by injuries; and this will be its third game on the road, but the Rams are finding ways to win, so don't count them out. This week look for them to lean on RB Steven Jackson and the running game. A strong commitment to the running game will take some pressure of an offensive line that hasn't pass protected well and help keep the defense rested. That doesn't bode well for the Giants, as their run defense surrendered 268 yards on 33 carries last week.


Detroit at Tampa Bay
Sun 1:00 PM ETLions at Buccaneers
The Lions are coming off their Week 2 bye and will look to capitalize on the extra preparation. They have too much talent at the wide receiver position for their passing game to look as inconsistent as it has so far in 2005. As much as the Lions would like to rely on RB Kevin Jones to carry the load, it promises to be tough sledding versus the league's most dominant run defense to date. If Jones does not get untracked against DT Anthony McFarland, LB Derrick Brooks & Co., all the pressure will shift to QB Joey Harrington and his trio of talented but unreliable wide receivers in Roy Williams, Charles Rogers and Mike Williams.


Seattle at Washington
Sun 1:00 PM ETSeahawks at Redskins
Seattle RB Shaun Alexander is coming off a monster game and he will be asked to carry a heavy load once again, but QB Matt Hasselbeck will play a bigger role in deciding the outcome of this game. While Washington's defense is capable of slowing Alexander down, it doesn't have the depth at corner to match up with the Seahawks' multiple-receiver sets. The problem is taking advantage of that weakness is easier said than done because the Redskins will almost constantly blitz. Hasselbeck has to find the open man and get rid of the ball quickly as a result.


Denver at Jacksonville
Sun 1:00 PM ETBroncos at Jaguars
The Jaguars return home against a Broncos team that struggled the last time it played in the state of Florida. Jacksonville's formula for success last week was handing the ball a franchise record 37 times to Fred Taylor, so Broncos defensive coordinator Larry Coyer must design a plan to stop an impressive collection of offensive talent. Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan must formulate a gameplan against a Jaguars defense that is ranked second in the NFL in total defense, with a short week to prepare.


Houston at Cincinnati
Sun 1:00 PM ETTexans at Bengals
This game features teams going in opposite directions. The underachieving Houston Texans must come up with a game plan on offense that can generate points. New offensive coordinator Joe Pendry replaces the departed Chris Palmer and will be expected to get David Carr to perform. The game plan for the Bengals defense will be stopping RB Domanick Davis and forcing Carr into making critical mistakes. The Bengals lead the league with a plus-12 turnover differential and have forced 10 turnovers in the last two games. It will be interesting to see if Carr will continue to blame the offensive line for protection breakdowns.


Indianapolis at Tennessee
Sun 1:00 PM ETColts at Titans
Indianapolis has uncharacteristically been winning with defense rather than its high-octane offense. That trend could change going up against a Tennessee defense that is giving up an average of 25 points a game. The key will be getting the running game and Edgerrin James going early. That will set up the play action and QB Peyton Manning's play fakes are the best in the league. Tennessee's defense will have to counter by trying to prevent the big play defensively, so expect a conservative defensive game plan.


NY Jets at Baltimore
Sun 4:05 PM ETJets at Ravens
This game features two teams in must-win situations heading into Week 4 of the regular season. Both teams have been one-dimensional and have relied heavily on their defenses to off-set their struggling offenses. It's a tough first test for third-string QB Brooks Bollinger.


Philadelphia at Kansas City
Sun 4:15 PM ETEagles at Chiefs
Philadelphia's Jim Johnson and Kansas City's Gunther Cunningham are aggressive defensive coordinators that will look to blitz early and often. The ability of each offense to keep the opposing coordinator off balance and pick up his blitzes will play a big role in who gets the win. With two veteran quarterbacks facing off, this aspect of the matchup is that much more intriguing. Both the Eagles Donovan McNabb and the Chiefs Trent Green have to make sound decisions quickly.


Dallas at Oakland
Sun 4:15 PM ETCowboys at Raiders
The Cowboys' two wins were in games that they endured despite mediocre performances. Ironically, the team's only loss came in its best outing -- that is, prior to giving the game away to the Redskins in the final five minutes. The Raiders know the feeling, having given three strong efforts but to no avail in three-consecutive losses to open the 2005 season. In order to buck the trend Oakland knows it must, above all, focus on containing Cowboys' RB Julius Jones, who continues to be the featured player with 74 carries in three games, despite mixed results thus far. Conversely, Dallas knows it must keep WRs Randy Moss and Jerry Porter under wraps in order to make it out of Oakland alive.


Minnesota at Atlanta
Sun 4:15 PM ETVikings at Falcons
Sunday's matchup between the Vikings and Falcons is an important game for two teams that entered the 2005 season with the highest of expectations. If the Vikings are to pull to .500 after an 0-2 start, QB Daunte Culpepper must build on the momentum of his three-touchdown, zero-interception performance last week. Minnesota also needs the big plays to continue on defense, but it can't come at the expense of breaking contain versus explosive QB Michael Vick.

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San Francisco at Arizona
Sun 8:30 PM ET
49ers at Cardinals
The 49ers and Cardinals say "Hola" to Mexico City as the NFL plays its first-ever regular season game outside the United States at Estadio Azteca. The Cardinals may be without QB Kurt Warner (right groin) and may be forced to start Josh McCown, whose accuracy and timing will need to improve against an aggressive and opportunistic 49ers secondary.
• Complete advance scouting report

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• Take 2: McCown can exploit Niners' secondary

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MONDAY OCTOBER 3, 2005
Green Bay
at
Carolina
Mon 9:00 PM ETPackers at Panthers
Tabbed as preseason playoff contenders in the NFC, the Packers and Panthers are off to miserably disappointing starts. Things don't get any easier for QB Brett Favre and his team as they travel to Carolina and face an ornery Panthers' club on Monday Night Football. If the Packers are to stop the bleeding, they must play more conservatively, better protect the football and get more big plays from their defense. More specifically, Favre needs to stop pressing (seven interceptions in three games) and his supporting cast must shoulder more of the load.

 

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Friday, September 30, 2005
Take 2: 49ers vs. Cardinals


By Scouts, Inc.

San Francisco at Arizona Matchups
QB RB WR OLD LLB DB ST Coach Overall

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Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this week's matchup between the 49ers and Cardinals. Now they're back with a second look.

Backup QB Josh McCown replaces the injured Kurt Warner. McCown provides a different dimension to the Cardinals offense than Warner, because of his athleticism, mobility and ability to throw on the move. But his decision making and confidence level last week were awful when he replaced Kurt Warner. If McCown continues to struggle again this week, head coach Denny Green will not hesitate to play John Navarre. Navarre has a strong arm and work ethic, but isn't nearly as mobile as McCown. Though Navarre might have a better upside than McCown, he still needs to improve his touch and short accuracy in the passing game.

Look for offensive coordinator Keith Rowen to simplify things and take some of the pressure off McCown, with a strong emphasis on the running game to set-up the play action pass on first and second down.

Defensive back Mike Rumph was placed on injured reserve yesterday after injuring his foot in practice. The 49ers will also be without starting LC Ahmed Plummer and linebacker Jamie Winborn, who cleaned out his locker and left the team on Wednesday.

With Rumph out, Plummer battling injuries and Winborn likely to be traded, three of the key players in the 49ers defense won't be available against Arizona's wide receiving trio of Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Bryant Johnson. The 49ers re-signed Willie Middlebrooks, who was released in the final roster cuts and he will probably start on Sunday, while nickel back Michael Adams was moved back to take Rumph's starting spot at FS.

The Cardinals' injury situation continues to grow in severity, and it appears as many as five opening day starters could miss Sunday's game. LC Antrel Rolle could miss four weeks and probably more with a left knee injury. RC David Macklin has a hamstring injury and is listed as questionable. Warner injured his groin last week and is out for this week's game. RT Oliver Ross broke a bone in his right hand and is expected to miss a month of the season and starting NT Russell Davis was placed on injured reserve after suffering a torn biceps tendon.

Look for head coach Mike Nolan to get more involved in the 49ers' defense. Nolan's forte is defense and the 49ers defense is the worst in the league through the first three games, allowing the opposition to roll up an average of 477 yards through the first three games.

Look for the Cardinals to continue to spread the field to create mismatches and try to convert shorter, high percentage passes to build up Josh McCown's confidence. If the Cardinals offensive line can protect McCown, he should be able to put up some big numbers against a questionable secondary.

QB Tim Rattay continues to be plagued by fourth-quarter mistakes. Last year, seven of his 10 interceptions came in the fourth quarter. Last week against the Cowboys with the 49ers protecting the lead, Rattay threw two interceptions. Of his 16 career picks, 11 have come in the fourth quarter. Backup QB Alex Smith is not ready to take over for him, though. Smith struggled in the preseason and has only played in three snaps so far this season.

Expect Cardinals defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast to pick his spots when pressuring Rattay, due to the injuries in the Cardinals secondary. The Cardinals still have the ability to get pressure with their front four. Look for LDE Chike Okeafor to have a big game vs. his former team, when matched-up against RT Kwame Harris. Also, look for newly signed right tackle and former Cardinal Anthony Clement to work in a rotation with Harris.

WR Brandon Lloyd is emerging into a top-flight receiver, as he shows signs of benefiting greatly from receivers coach Jerry Sullivan. Lloyd has 10 catches for 224 yards and three touchdowns. His 89-yard score on a pass from Tim Rattay was the sixth longest pass play in 49ers history.

Look for RB Marcel Shipp to continue to be the starter ahead of JJ Arrington. Shipp likely will get twice as many carries as Arrington. Ideally, Arrington would get 10-15 carries a game, but the Cardinals running game and offensive line must dramatically improve if Arrington is to get that number. The Cardinals are ranked 28th in the NFL in rushing, averaging 67.7 yards per game.

Special Teams
PK Neil Rackers made all four field goal attempts last week and is perfect on 10 attempts this season. Four of Rackers tries have covered at least 40 yards and two have covered at least 50, with a long of 54. Rackers has shown impressive leg strength and is tied for the league lead with seven touchbacks. The return teams have struggled and Reggie Swinton has been somewhat of a disappointment, since the 59-yard punt return in week one vs. the Giants. Swinton is 10th in the NFC in both punt (5.0 avg.) and kickoff returns (22.0 avg.).

San Francisco P Andy Lee had a strong net average of 38.2 yards last week vs. the Cowboys. The Cowboys average starting point after kickoffs was the 28-yard line, while the 49ers started on average at the 23. PK Joe Nedney has been called upon just twice for field goal attempts, making both efforts. Nedney has given the 49ers an upgrade on kickoffs this season, as his leg is much stronger than last year's kicker Todd Peterson

Matchups
• Arizona RDE Bertrand Berry against SF LT Jonas Jennings
• Arizona SLB Karlos Dansby against SF RB Kevan Barlow
• SF QB Tim Rattay against Arizona LDE Chike Okeafor and SS Adrian Wilson
• Arizona RT Fred Wakefield or Ian Allen against SF LDE Bryant Young
• SF WR Johnnie Morton against Arizona DC Eric Green


Scouts' Edge
This game features two teams that must rely on depth in order to line up and play on Sunday, due to all the injuries that have mounted at this point in the regular season. The Cardinals have been disappointing to say the least and have yet to play a complete game in the first three weeks of the regular season. The 49ers lost a tough game at home last week against a beatable Dallas Cowboys team. Both teams will come out and try to establish the running game to take pressure off their quarterbacks.

QB Josh McCown must step up and prove he is a bonafide NFL starting quarterback, He has a solid core of receivers going up against a secondary that has given up a lot of yardage and big plays. Another key element in this game will be the performance on special teams and the battle for field position. The Cardinals can ill afford to start the season at 0-4, and they will win this high-scoring affair in the NFL's first ever regular season game outside the United States in Mexico City.

 

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Friday, September 30, 2005
Cards unlikely to notch first win


By Scouts, Inc.

Why To Watch
The 49ers and Cardinals say "Hola" to Mexico City as the NFL plays its first-ever regular season game outside the United States at Estadio Azteca. The Cardinals may be without QB Kurt Warner (right groin) and may be forced to start Josh McCown, whose accuracy and timing will need to improve against an aggressive and opportunistic 49ers secondary. The Cardinals woeful running attack won't get a break either because of the speedy, swarming 49ers linebacking core. The 49ers will attempt to expose a banged up Cardinals defense that lost four players to injury last game with a heavy dose of between the tackles running and underneath routes. They will also look to avoid another late-game collapse by avoiding costly penalties and improving their play-calling.

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When the 49ers have the ball
Rushing: Offensive coordinator Mike McCarthy needs to stay committed to the run for an entire game. Both Frank Gore and Kevan Barlow looked impressive between the tackles in the second half against the Cowboys. Look for Gore's workload to continue to increase -- he showed great burst in the last game and could feast on the slow and depleted Cardinals' linebackers.

Arizona safeties Robert Griffith and Adrian Wilson both struggled in run support against the Seahawks and will have to do a better job wrapping up the elusive Gore. The Cardinals interior defense wore down for the second time in three weeks, so the bruising, physical Barlow becomes the perfect complement in the second half. Plus, NT Russell Davis (biceps) and LB Eric Johnson (left hamstring) left last game and may be unavailable against the 49ers.

The 49ers will look to neutralize SLB Karlos Dansby and stretch MLB Lester Towns, who has struggled in sideline-to-sideline pursuit. Look for Gore to bounce some runs out toward Kwame Harris and test the shed ability and pursuit of LDE Chike Okeafor. LG Justin Smiley was effective in moving to the second level, but needs to be more effective in finishing his blocks against the Cardinals linebackers.

QB Tim Rattay is much more effective in short-yardage situations, so running the ball often and successfully on early downs will be key.

Passing: Rattay was the victim of some bad luck on the final drive of the Cowboys game. WR Arnaz Battle had performed well all day, but left after limping off the field with a leg injury. WR Johnnie Morton moved from the slot to Battle's flanker spot and WR Otis Amey moved to the slot. Rattay's next pass bounced off Amey's hands and was intercepted, ending the 49ers rally.

Battle could have a field day against a depleted Cardinals secondary that may be without CBs Antrel Rolle and David Macklin. He is a physical receiver who, along with Morton, is effective coming over the middle on the short slants that the 49ers like to run on third and short situations.

WR Brandon Lloyd established himself as an effective vertical threat against the Cowboys, catching 4 balls for 142 yards and 2 touchdowns. Lloyd will again look to stretch the field and give the 49ers room underneath. Dansby has the ability to cover underneath, so look for the 49ers to run their routes away from him.

Look for Gore to become involved in the short passing game on early downs in order to expose the lack of speed of the Cardinals linebackers. He has the burst and ability to make the Cardinals miss on the perimeter. Barlow is a much better blocker and can pick up the blitz better on third down.

RDE Bertrand Berry will become a factor again on the pass rush, after battling all-pro Walter Jones last week. Defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast will look to run some overload blitzes from Berry's side in order to confuse the left side of the 49ers line and put pressure on Rattay to make quick decisions, something he hasn't proven he can do.

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When the Cardinals have the ball
Rushing: Once again the Cardinals will look to spread the field with their three-receiver sets in order to give RB Marcel Shipp more room to run up the middle. The problem is that RILB Jeff Ulbrich remains in the game in nickel and is a genuine downhill, physical, run-stopping player. Ulbrich has the reaction skills to fill a gap and finish his tackles.

LG Reggie Wells has to do a better job of sustaining his block at the point of attack in this game and possibly get to the second level on Ulbrich. 49ers NT Anthony Adams needs to continue to eat up blockers and allow Ulbrich to flow to the ball, something he should be able to do against the interior of the Cardinals line.

ROLB Jamie Winborn and LOLB Julian Peterson, who left the Cowboys game with a hamstring injury, are susceptible to inside runs, but very effective in space. Another problem for the Cardinals is that tight end Eric Edwards struggled mightily in run blocking. Edwards often missed assignments or whiffed on blocks against the Seahawks, something Winborn and Peterson will be aware of and will look to exploit.

Shipp has proven that he can improvise better than J.J. Arrington when the blocking scheme breaks down. He has the ability to make people miss in space and is more assertive than Arrington when hitting the hole.

Passing: QB Josh McCown looked out of sorts and inaccurate against the Seahawks. The 49ers will look to follow the Seahawks blueprint and use delayed blitzes and pressure to make McCown uncomfortable in the pocket. While the Cardinals pass protection certainly hasn't been great, their receivers aren't helping either. Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald and Bryant Johnson aren't burners, but need to run more precise routes and get open earlier, allowing McCown to take shorter drops and attempt higher percentage passes.

The 49ers need to bring blitz pressure because LDE Bryant Young, NT Isaac Sopoaga and RDE Marques Douglas were unable to get any sort of a pass rush against the Cowboys. Young will have an easier time in this game facing either an injured Oliver Ross or backup RT Fred Wakefield. If McCown has time, the Cardinals receivers then have the ability to run longer routes and get open.

The Cardinals utilized Boldin and Fitzgerald in short wide receiver screen routes on early downs, effectively using those plays to replace their run game. McCown also utilized Fitzgerald's leaping ability, something they will look to do again against smaller CB Ahmed Plummer.

As effective as Ulbrich is against the run, he is susceptible to underneath crossing routes and play-action passes. Look for the Cardinals to line up Fitzgerald or Johnson in the left slot and then run routes into Ulbrich's zone toward the sideline.