Don't believe Warriors' salary-cap claim
By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Send an Email to Chad Ford Monday, August 18
Updated: August 18
10:03 AM ET
There are good trades, bad trades, lopsided trades, cap trades and fatal trades. And every once in a while, there is a trade that makes so little sense it defies any known convention for labeling what just happened.
Leave it to the Warriors and Mavs, and owners Chris Cohan and Mark Cuban, to come in with an "all of the above" in what has to be described simply as the most bizarre trade in recent history.
My word for it? Salary crap.
On Friday word leaked that Cohan had struck a deal with Cuban that will send Antawn Jamison, Danny Fortson, Jiri Welsch and Chris Mills to Dallas for Nick Van Exel, Evan Eschmeyer, Avery Johnson and Popeye Jones.
Here's Insider's take on the stunning trade.
Breaking down the Warriors' end
Blame Cohan, not my favorite whipping boy, Garry St. Jean, because I finally believe that even St. Jean can't be this dense. San Francisco Chronicle columnist Ray Ratto wrote a scathing diatribe linking this trade and several other boneheaded Warriors moves (including his failure to reassure Gilbert Arenas they'd take care of him down the road) to Cohan, and I'm convinced. Cuban needed a sucker to agree to a deal this bad, and he found one in the Warriors owner.
There is no way St. Jean could've made this trade. Only a greedy owner with little basketball knowledge, an intense hatred for the fans, and a bumbling crew of underlings could screw up this royally.
Despite the recent hype out there, the trade doesn't do nearly what the Warriors are claiming it will do.
It does not give Golden State significant cap space for the next two years. It does not increase the Warriors' ability to sign top free agents in 2004 or 2005. Even 2006 is a real question mark. And most importantly, it does not replace the loss of Gilbert Arenas at the point.
What it does is simply this: It saves Cohan a little more than $30 million over the 2006-08 seasons. Period.
I'm not in love with Jamison, Fortson or Mills. None of these players are superstars. All are overpaid. All have fatal weaknesses in their games. Jamison is a tweener who can't play a lick of defense. Fortson is an undersized rebounder with no offensive game. Mills is washed up. None had the ability to lead Golden State to a championship.
The Warriors should be commended for trying to trade all three players. Welsch's departure is the most problematic. He didn't have to be included in the deal to make it work financially. In other words the Warriors just gave him away. Here's what they got in return.
Nick Van Exel
Point Guard
Dallas Mavericks
Profile
2002-2003 SEASON STATISTICS
GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
73 12.5 2.8 4.3 .412 .764
Van Exel, who at 31 is coming off his best playoff series ever. But with three years, $34 million left on his contract, he's just as overpaid as Jamison was (albeit with two fewer years on his deal). To make matters worse, history suggests Van Exel will have a bad attitude on a bad basketball team. He had zero problems in Dallas last season, but most players don't when they're winning. Ask the folks in Denver how they felt about Nick, even when he was putting up 21 ppg. How will he handle moving from a first class organization in Dallas to the Warriors? They are really just a breath away from being the Clippers, and Van Exel isn't happy.
"He was disappointed, but he took it like a pro," his agent, Tony Dutt, told the Dallas Morning News. "I was probably more depressed about it than Nick was. I just thought Nick had developed a nice rapport with the fans and with that team. For as short a time as it was, he sure fell in love with that team and the city."
Eschmeyer is the very definition of an overpaid player. Eschmeyer averaged 1 ppg last season and still has four years, $14 million left on his contract. And did we mention that he won't be cleared to play medically until January? As bad as Jamison's contract was, at least he put up numbers.
Johnson, who in the last year of his deal, is basically an after thought. He played sparingly last season and will retire at the end of this year. He won't play in Golden State. In fact, there's talk that Johnson may end up somewhere else if this trade turns into a three way.
And Popeye Jones. Popeye Jones, people.
In other words, over the course of two months, the Warriors have taken their surprising, upstart, 38-win team from a year ago and removed their two best players and leading scorers (Arenas and Jamison), a top young prospect (Welsch) and their top reserve (Earl Boykins) and replaced them with Van Exel and Speedy Claxton.
Remember the NBA Loserville column from Thursday? Put the Warriors at No. 3 now, behind only the Jazz and Bucks.
If you're a Warriors fan, this trade only works if three major things happen in the course of the season.
1. The Van Exel we saw in the playoffs -- the guy who averaged 19.5 ppg and 4.1 apg on 46 percent shooting -- shows up every night in Golden State. If he does, his numbers are close enough to Arenas to call him a serviceable replacement. Then again, he has to keep playing at that level for the next three seasons.
2. Mike Dunleavy is the second coming of Larry Bird. With his new-found starting job, Dunleavy needs to average at least 18 ppg and 7 rpg, shoot 45 percent from the field and not give up 35 points a night to the guy he guards. That last feat will be the toughest. Dunleavy proved in the summer league (23.3 ppg) he has the ability to score when he gets the ball (though he did shoot less than 40 percent from the field). But his defense is awful. Worse than Jamison's. That's bad enough on any team. But when you play for the worst defensive team in the league already, it's downright scary. With no one else on the roster to really back him up, Dunleavy will be thrown to the wolves.
Jason Richardson
Shooting Guard
Golden State Warriors
Profile
2002-2003 SEASON STATISTICS
GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
82 15.6 4.6 3.0 .410 .764
3. Jason Richardson finds his jumpshot and his defense, Troy Murphy ups his inside presence, Mickael Pietrus is rookie of the year, Speedy Claxton is the sixth-man of the year and coach Eric Musselman doesn't hang himself in training camp.
That's a lot of ifs folks.
As for the cap room that the Warriors are promising? It's a mirage.
Next summer, assuming the cap stays at $43.8 million and the team doesn't re-sign Adonal Foyle (and letting him go would be another big loss), they'll have around $4 million in cap space. However, given that the team will suck, they'll have a high lottery pick that should take most of that. The cap hold on the No. 4 pick, for example, will be around $3 million, essentially erasing any cap room for the summer of 2004.
In 2005, the situation isn't any better. The team's cap number will be at $39.8 million (including last year's first rounder). However, that assumes the team lets Richardson and Murphy (both will be restricted free agents) walk away. Add in another high lottery pick, and the cap room is basically gone again.
In 2006? Van Exel's contract comes off the books. Hooray. So do Dampier's and Claxton's. That will leave the team with enough cap room to either re-sign Dunleavy, who becomes a restricted free agent, and a top-tier free agent or to dump Dunleavy and go after two top-tier free agents.
Of course, we all know how top free agents flock to bad teams with lots of cap room. Just ask Kiki Vandeweghe in Denver or Kevin O'Connor in Utah or even Jerry Krause, who tried that strategy in Chicago.
If the Warriors decide to re-sign Richardson, Foyle, Murphy and Dunleavy to long-term deals, they can kiss all their 2006 cap room goodbye.
The only two scenarios where the Warriors see the light of day?
1. Van Exel's contract only becomes fully guaranteed next year if he meets certain performance incentives. If Van Exel stumbles and falls short of those benchmarks, the Warriors could buy him out for $2.5 million next summer. However, according to league sources familiar with Van Exel's contract, it's unlikely that will happen.
2. The Warriors aren't done dealing. The team has been talking with the Grizzlies about a multi-team deal that would send Erick Dampier to Memphis for Wesley Person. That move would clear another $8 million off the cap for next summer and give the Warriors some real wiggle room. However, one league source claimed that talks stalled after the Warriors struck their deal with Dallas.
Breaking down the Mavs' end
Things are much clearer from Dallas' point of view. They gave away their most productive bench player for a big upgrade at small forward in Jamison, a tough (though undersized) rebounder in Fortson and a promising young guard in Welsch.
While it's doubtful any of these players will be the piece that puts Dallas over the top, the move was a slam dunk for Dallas from a talent perspective. They got younger, bigger and more versatile while essentially swapping one live body for four.
The Mavs weren't going to get a dominating center or power forward for Van Exel anyway, so they decided to address their other glaring need -- small forward.
The team will miss Van Exel's explosiveness off the bench, but here's what they get in return.
Continued......................
By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Send an Email to Chad Ford Monday, August 18
Updated: August 18
10:03 AM ET
There are good trades, bad trades, lopsided trades, cap trades and fatal trades. And every once in a while, there is a trade that makes so little sense it defies any known convention for labeling what just happened.
Leave it to the Warriors and Mavs, and owners Chris Cohan and Mark Cuban, to come in with an "all of the above" in what has to be described simply as the most bizarre trade in recent history.
My word for it? Salary crap.
On Friday word leaked that Cohan had struck a deal with Cuban that will send Antawn Jamison, Danny Fortson, Jiri Welsch and Chris Mills to Dallas for Nick Van Exel, Evan Eschmeyer, Avery Johnson and Popeye Jones.
Here's Insider's take on the stunning trade.
Breaking down the Warriors' end
Blame Cohan, not my favorite whipping boy, Garry St. Jean, because I finally believe that even St. Jean can't be this dense. San Francisco Chronicle columnist Ray Ratto wrote a scathing diatribe linking this trade and several other boneheaded Warriors moves (including his failure to reassure Gilbert Arenas they'd take care of him down the road) to Cohan, and I'm convinced. Cuban needed a sucker to agree to a deal this bad, and he found one in the Warriors owner.
There is no way St. Jean could've made this trade. Only a greedy owner with little basketball knowledge, an intense hatred for the fans, and a bumbling crew of underlings could screw up this royally.
Despite the recent hype out there, the trade doesn't do nearly what the Warriors are claiming it will do.
It does not give Golden State significant cap space for the next two years. It does not increase the Warriors' ability to sign top free agents in 2004 or 2005. Even 2006 is a real question mark. And most importantly, it does not replace the loss of Gilbert Arenas at the point.
What it does is simply this: It saves Cohan a little more than $30 million over the 2006-08 seasons. Period.
I'm not in love with Jamison, Fortson or Mills. None of these players are superstars. All are overpaid. All have fatal weaknesses in their games. Jamison is a tweener who can't play a lick of defense. Fortson is an undersized rebounder with no offensive game. Mills is washed up. None had the ability to lead Golden State to a championship.
The Warriors should be commended for trying to trade all three players. Welsch's departure is the most problematic. He didn't have to be included in the deal to make it work financially. In other words the Warriors just gave him away. Here's what they got in return.
Nick Van Exel
Point Guard
Dallas Mavericks
Profile
2002-2003 SEASON STATISTICS
GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
73 12.5 2.8 4.3 .412 .764
Van Exel, who at 31 is coming off his best playoff series ever. But with three years, $34 million left on his contract, he's just as overpaid as Jamison was (albeit with two fewer years on his deal). To make matters worse, history suggests Van Exel will have a bad attitude on a bad basketball team. He had zero problems in Dallas last season, but most players don't when they're winning. Ask the folks in Denver how they felt about Nick, even when he was putting up 21 ppg. How will he handle moving from a first class organization in Dallas to the Warriors? They are really just a breath away from being the Clippers, and Van Exel isn't happy.
"He was disappointed, but he took it like a pro," his agent, Tony Dutt, told the Dallas Morning News. "I was probably more depressed about it than Nick was. I just thought Nick had developed a nice rapport with the fans and with that team. For as short a time as it was, he sure fell in love with that team and the city."
Eschmeyer is the very definition of an overpaid player. Eschmeyer averaged 1 ppg last season and still has four years, $14 million left on his contract. And did we mention that he won't be cleared to play medically until January? As bad as Jamison's contract was, at least he put up numbers.
Johnson, who in the last year of his deal, is basically an after thought. He played sparingly last season and will retire at the end of this year. He won't play in Golden State. In fact, there's talk that Johnson may end up somewhere else if this trade turns into a three way.
And Popeye Jones. Popeye Jones, people.
In other words, over the course of two months, the Warriors have taken their surprising, upstart, 38-win team from a year ago and removed their two best players and leading scorers (Arenas and Jamison), a top young prospect (Welsch) and their top reserve (Earl Boykins) and replaced them with Van Exel and Speedy Claxton.
Remember the NBA Loserville column from Thursday? Put the Warriors at No. 3 now, behind only the Jazz and Bucks.
If you're a Warriors fan, this trade only works if three major things happen in the course of the season.
1. The Van Exel we saw in the playoffs -- the guy who averaged 19.5 ppg and 4.1 apg on 46 percent shooting -- shows up every night in Golden State. If he does, his numbers are close enough to Arenas to call him a serviceable replacement. Then again, he has to keep playing at that level for the next three seasons.
2. Mike Dunleavy is the second coming of Larry Bird. With his new-found starting job, Dunleavy needs to average at least 18 ppg and 7 rpg, shoot 45 percent from the field and not give up 35 points a night to the guy he guards. That last feat will be the toughest. Dunleavy proved in the summer league (23.3 ppg) he has the ability to score when he gets the ball (though he did shoot less than 40 percent from the field). But his defense is awful. Worse than Jamison's. That's bad enough on any team. But when you play for the worst defensive team in the league already, it's downright scary. With no one else on the roster to really back him up, Dunleavy will be thrown to the wolves.
Jason Richardson
Shooting Guard
Golden State Warriors
Profile
2002-2003 SEASON STATISTICS
GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
82 15.6 4.6 3.0 .410 .764
3. Jason Richardson finds his jumpshot and his defense, Troy Murphy ups his inside presence, Mickael Pietrus is rookie of the year, Speedy Claxton is the sixth-man of the year and coach Eric Musselman doesn't hang himself in training camp.
That's a lot of ifs folks.
As for the cap room that the Warriors are promising? It's a mirage.
Next summer, assuming the cap stays at $43.8 million and the team doesn't re-sign Adonal Foyle (and letting him go would be another big loss), they'll have around $4 million in cap space. However, given that the team will suck, they'll have a high lottery pick that should take most of that. The cap hold on the No. 4 pick, for example, will be around $3 million, essentially erasing any cap room for the summer of 2004.
In 2005, the situation isn't any better. The team's cap number will be at $39.8 million (including last year's first rounder). However, that assumes the team lets Richardson and Murphy (both will be restricted free agents) walk away. Add in another high lottery pick, and the cap room is basically gone again.
In 2006? Van Exel's contract comes off the books. Hooray. So do Dampier's and Claxton's. That will leave the team with enough cap room to either re-sign Dunleavy, who becomes a restricted free agent, and a top-tier free agent or to dump Dunleavy and go after two top-tier free agents.
Of course, we all know how top free agents flock to bad teams with lots of cap room. Just ask Kiki Vandeweghe in Denver or Kevin O'Connor in Utah or even Jerry Krause, who tried that strategy in Chicago.
If the Warriors decide to re-sign Richardson, Foyle, Murphy and Dunleavy to long-term deals, they can kiss all their 2006 cap room goodbye.
The only two scenarios where the Warriors see the light of day?
1. Van Exel's contract only becomes fully guaranteed next year if he meets certain performance incentives. If Van Exel stumbles and falls short of those benchmarks, the Warriors could buy him out for $2.5 million next summer. However, according to league sources familiar with Van Exel's contract, it's unlikely that will happen.
2. The Warriors aren't done dealing. The team has been talking with the Grizzlies about a multi-team deal that would send Erick Dampier to Memphis for Wesley Person. That move would clear another $8 million off the cap for next summer and give the Warriors some real wiggle room. However, one league source claimed that talks stalled after the Warriors struck their deal with Dallas.
Breaking down the Mavs' end
Things are much clearer from Dallas' point of view. They gave away their most productive bench player for a big upgrade at small forward in Jamison, a tough (though undersized) rebounder in Fortson and a promising young guard in Welsch.
While it's doubtful any of these players will be the piece that puts Dallas over the top, the move was a slam dunk for Dallas from a talent perspective. They got younger, bigger and more versatile while essentially swapping one live body for four.
The Mavs weren't going to get a dominating center or power forward for Van Exel anyway, so they decided to address their other glaring need -- small forward.
The team will miss Van Exel's explosiveness off the bench, but here's what they get in return.
Continued......................
