Draft watch: Noah hot, Redick not
posted: Monday, March 27, 2006
It has been a dramatic March for NBA draft prospects. Most of the top prospects in the draft were still playing this weekend and several of them dramatically helped (or hurt) their stock over the course of the last four days.
The reverberations were felt all the way at the top of the draft. NBA scouts and executives still are debating who the No. 1 pick in the draft should be. At this point it's doubtful there will be a consensus anytime soon -- with as many as seven prospects still hopeful of being No. 1 overall.
Here's our second look at who's hot and who's not in the NCAA Tournament:
Who's Hot?
Tyrus Thomas, PF, LSU: He was on no one's top-100 prospect board at the start of the season. A few of the NBA scouts who live in the area didn't even mention him when I put together my preseason top 100 in September. But after two dominating performances this weekend against Duke and Texas, a growing number of scouts are saying that Thomas is the best prospect in the draft.
His combination of size, athleticism, aggressiveness and skills (he showed some ball handling and a sweet 12-foot baseline jumper this weekend) are unmatched in the draft. Yes, he's still raw offensively. But watching him this weekend, it's getting difficult to come up with reasons why he shouldn't be considered the No. 1 pick in the draft. Eight teams passed on Amare Stoudemire in 2002 because they believed he was too raw to make an impact in the league. There won't be more than two, maybe three teams at most, who'll pass on Thomas this year. In fact, if Thomas has two more great performances left in him this weekend, he could be the consensus No. 1 pick by draft night.
Joakim Noah, PF/C, Florida: Noah wasn't on anyone's top-100 list either at the start of the season. But a stellar March has him in the top five as well. Like Thomas, Noah also has a great motor, excellent athleticism and more skills than you think. He too has been the best player in his region. And unlike Thomas, he's a legit 7-footer. If Noah was 25 pounds heavier, he'd be the No. 1 pick, hands down. As it stands now, he's No. 4 on our big board with an outside shot at the No. 1 pick for teams such as the Hawks and Raptors, who are in desperate need of size.
Josh McRoberts, PF, Duke: McRoberts didn't dominate the tournament like Thomas or Noah have. But he's shown enough potential and grit (a la Marvin Williams last year) to have firmly planted himself in the top 10 should he decide to declare for the draft. McRoberts has great size, an all-around game and excellent athleticism for his position -- giving him as much upside as just about anyone in the draft.
If he declares this year, he's probably guaranteed a top-10 pick with strong workouts. However, here's the dilemma. If he stays another year at Duke and continues to impress, he could be a top-three pick in the draft next year. Does he stay in Durham and work on his game? Or does he take the guaranteed money and run? My heart says he'll stay one more year and spend more time preparing himself for the NBA. My mind says he's shopping for Escalades as I write this.
LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, Texas: A 26-point, 13-rebound performance against West Virginia on Thursday had scouts buzzing that Aldridge had solidified his place as a potential No. 1 pick in the draft. A 2-for-14 performance against LSU on Saturday had scouts backtracking -- but only a little bit. Aldridge's game against LSU wasn't as bad as it looked in the box score. He did have 10 rebounds and five blocks. Most of his shots were on line, they just didn't go in.
While it's clear that big, physical players such as Glen Davis of LSU are going to push him further away from the basket, there's no reason to believe that on a better day, Aldridge can hit those shots he took. Besides, how many 310-pound power forwards is he going to have to face in the NBA? Clearly Aldridge needs to get stronger, but scouts believe that the rest of the package is there. He's holding onto our No. 1 spot on the big board by a thread. But truth is, scouts are split in two over whether Aldridge or Thomas is the best power forward in the draft.
Randy Foye, PG/SG, Villanova: It's tough to fault Foye for Villanova's demise in the tournament. He did everything for Villanova the past four games. He scored, he defended, and at times, he ran the team as a point guard. His 3-point shot has tapered off at a fairly alarming rate toward the end of the season, but for the most part NBA scouts believe he's a good enough shooter. He's still trying to convince scouts that he's a point guard at the next level, but there are enough NBA scouts and executives convinced he's a basketball player and it's still pretty likely he'll end up in the top 10 on draft night.
Honorable mention: Al Horford, PF, Florida; Marcus Williams, PG, UConn; Jeff Green, F, Georgetown; Glen Davis, F/C, LSU; Kyle Lowry, PG, Villanova; Brandon Roy, SG, Washington; Ryan Hollins, F/C, UCLA; Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, SF, UCLA; Patrick O'Bryant, C, Bradley
Who's Not?
J.J. Redick, SG, Duke: Redick's worst nightmare happened on Thursday. Not only did Duke suffer an early exit at the hands of LSU, but his fantastic senior season came into serious question with NBA scouts after the athletic LSU backcourt forced Redick into his worst game (3-for-18 from the field) of the year. This wasn't just a case of Redick's shot being a little off. He was horrible, and LSU freshman guard Garrett Temple drove him crazy. His length and athleticism were too much for Redick. He just couldn't get clean looks at the basket.
One game shouldn't taint a fantastic senior season -- but what every NBA scout that I talked to noted was that Temple is the type of athlete Redick will have to play against every night in the NBA. With that said, his stock isn't sliding as much as some might think. Scouts also understand that Redick won't be a star in the NBA and coaches won't be devising defenses to stop him the way LSU did. If Redick gets on a good team with a low-post presence, he should be an excellent sniper in the NBA. If asked to do what he did for Duke this year, it's going to get ugly. Look for him to fall in the range we've predicted for him most of the year: somewhere between 13 and 22 come draft night.
Adam Morrison, SF, Gonzaga: Morrison had a better tournament than Redick did, but his stock also suffered a bit after Gonzaga blew it against UCLA. Morrison is a well-known commodity among NBA scouts. They know his strengths and weaknesses. What Gonzaga's loss did was scrape away some of the mystique that was artificially inflating his stock. Had Morrison led Gonzaga to an NCAA title, it would've been tough for GMs to justify not taking him No. 1. Now that's not so hard.
Morrison is human too, and for the first time in several months, NBA scouts are acknowledging that again. Morrison is a very good, but not great, NBA prospect. That realization will likely cost him a few spots in the draft unless a team such as the Sonics or Blazers gets the No. 1 pick.
Rudy Gay, SF, Connecticut: By this time of the year, NBA scouts expect to see flashes of greatness from top-five prospects. Thomas, Noah and Aldridge all delivered at times. Gay? Not so much. He did have 20 points against George Mason in a losing effort on Sunday. But for the most part, scouts didn't see anything over the past four games to convince them that Gay is a potential No. 1 pick.
He grabbed some boards, hit a few jumpers and made a few plays. But he was rarely the best player on his team, let alone the floor. He has the tools. But he still has a long way to go before he figures out how to use them. That won't stop an NBA team from taking him in the lottery. But for now (until NBA team workouts that is) Gay has slipped out of contention for the No. 1 pick in the draft, according to the scouts Insider spoke with this weekend.
Rodney Carney, SF, Memphis: Carney has been trying to dump the "soft" label for the past three years. He did a great job of exorcising those demons during his senior season, but a so-so tournament has brought his stock back down to Earth. Carney's 2-for-12 performance against UCLA had scouts raising all the same concerns about toughness, focus and ability to perform in the clutch. Some team will fall in love with his combination of athleticism and shooting ability in individual workouts, but the tale of the tape is going to overcome.
Allan Ray, SG, Villanova: After Ray's great 25-point performance against Arizona last weekend, a few scouts were talking about him as a potential late first-round pick. But after two awful performances against Boston College (3-for-15) and Florida (5-for-19) that talk has cooled considerably. Ray has had an excellent season, but his NBA upside is questionable.
He's a good, but not great perimeter shooter who's undersized for his position and doesn't have the versatility to be anything more than a bench gunner. This isn't the way he wanted to end his career at Villanova. It will take a stellar performance at the Orlando pre-draft camp to get Ray's stock back on track.
posted: Monday, March 27, 2006
It has been a dramatic March for NBA draft prospects. Most of the top prospects in the draft were still playing this weekend and several of them dramatically helped (or hurt) their stock over the course of the last four days.
The reverberations were felt all the way at the top of the draft. NBA scouts and executives still are debating who the No. 1 pick in the draft should be. At this point it's doubtful there will be a consensus anytime soon -- with as many as seven prospects still hopeful of being No. 1 overall.
Here's our second look at who's hot and who's not in the NCAA Tournament:
Who's Hot?
Tyrus Thomas, PF, LSU: He was on no one's top-100 prospect board at the start of the season. A few of the NBA scouts who live in the area didn't even mention him when I put together my preseason top 100 in September. But after two dominating performances this weekend against Duke and Texas, a growing number of scouts are saying that Thomas is the best prospect in the draft.
His combination of size, athleticism, aggressiveness and skills (he showed some ball handling and a sweet 12-foot baseline jumper this weekend) are unmatched in the draft. Yes, he's still raw offensively. But watching him this weekend, it's getting difficult to come up with reasons why he shouldn't be considered the No. 1 pick in the draft. Eight teams passed on Amare Stoudemire in 2002 because they believed he was too raw to make an impact in the league. There won't be more than two, maybe three teams at most, who'll pass on Thomas this year. In fact, if Thomas has two more great performances left in him this weekend, he could be the consensus No. 1 pick by draft night.
Joakim Noah, PF/C, Florida: Noah wasn't on anyone's top-100 list either at the start of the season. But a stellar March has him in the top five as well. Like Thomas, Noah also has a great motor, excellent athleticism and more skills than you think. He too has been the best player in his region. And unlike Thomas, he's a legit 7-footer. If Noah was 25 pounds heavier, he'd be the No. 1 pick, hands down. As it stands now, he's No. 4 on our big board with an outside shot at the No. 1 pick for teams such as the Hawks and Raptors, who are in desperate need of size.
Josh McRoberts, PF, Duke: McRoberts didn't dominate the tournament like Thomas or Noah have. But he's shown enough potential and grit (a la Marvin Williams last year) to have firmly planted himself in the top 10 should he decide to declare for the draft. McRoberts has great size, an all-around game and excellent athleticism for his position -- giving him as much upside as just about anyone in the draft.
If he declares this year, he's probably guaranteed a top-10 pick with strong workouts. However, here's the dilemma. If he stays another year at Duke and continues to impress, he could be a top-three pick in the draft next year. Does he stay in Durham and work on his game? Or does he take the guaranteed money and run? My heart says he'll stay one more year and spend more time preparing himself for the NBA. My mind says he's shopping for Escalades as I write this.
LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, Texas: A 26-point, 13-rebound performance against West Virginia on Thursday had scouts buzzing that Aldridge had solidified his place as a potential No. 1 pick in the draft. A 2-for-14 performance against LSU on Saturday had scouts backtracking -- but only a little bit. Aldridge's game against LSU wasn't as bad as it looked in the box score. He did have 10 rebounds and five blocks. Most of his shots were on line, they just didn't go in.
While it's clear that big, physical players such as Glen Davis of LSU are going to push him further away from the basket, there's no reason to believe that on a better day, Aldridge can hit those shots he took. Besides, how many 310-pound power forwards is he going to have to face in the NBA? Clearly Aldridge needs to get stronger, but scouts believe that the rest of the package is there. He's holding onto our No. 1 spot on the big board by a thread. But truth is, scouts are split in two over whether Aldridge or Thomas is the best power forward in the draft.
Randy Foye, PG/SG, Villanova: It's tough to fault Foye for Villanova's demise in the tournament. He did everything for Villanova the past four games. He scored, he defended, and at times, he ran the team as a point guard. His 3-point shot has tapered off at a fairly alarming rate toward the end of the season, but for the most part NBA scouts believe he's a good enough shooter. He's still trying to convince scouts that he's a point guard at the next level, but there are enough NBA scouts and executives convinced he's a basketball player and it's still pretty likely he'll end up in the top 10 on draft night.
Honorable mention: Al Horford, PF, Florida; Marcus Williams, PG, UConn; Jeff Green, F, Georgetown; Glen Davis, F/C, LSU; Kyle Lowry, PG, Villanova; Brandon Roy, SG, Washington; Ryan Hollins, F/C, UCLA; Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, SF, UCLA; Patrick O'Bryant, C, Bradley
Who's Not?
J.J. Redick, SG, Duke: Redick's worst nightmare happened on Thursday. Not only did Duke suffer an early exit at the hands of LSU, but his fantastic senior season came into serious question with NBA scouts after the athletic LSU backcourt forced Redick into his worst game (3-for-18 from the field) of the year. This wasn't just a case of Redick's shot being a little off. He was horrible, and LSU freshman guard Garrett Temple drove him crazy. His length and athleticism were too much for Redick. He just couldn't get clean looks at the basket.
One game shouldn't taint a fantastic senior season -- but what every NBA scout that I talked to noted was that Temple is the type of athlete Redick will have to play against every night in the NBA. With that said, his stock isn't sliding as much as some might think. Scouts also understand that Redick won't be a star in the NBA and coaches won't be devising defenses to stop him the way LSU did. If Redick gets on a good team with a low-post presence, he should be an excellent sniper in the NBA. If asked to do what he did for Duke this year, it's going to get ugly. Look for him to fall in the range we've predicted for him most of the year: somewhere between 13 and 22 come draft night.
Adam Morrison, SF, Gonzaga: Morrison had a better tournament than Redick did, but his stock also suffered a bit after Gonzaga blew it against UCLA. Morrison is a well-known commodity among NBA scouts. They know his strengths and weaknesses. What Gonzaga's loss did was scrape away some of the mystique that was artificially inflating his stock. Had Morrison led Gonzaga to an NCAA title, it would've been tough for GMs to justify not taking him No. 1. Now that's not so hard.
Morrison is human too, and for the first time in several months, NBA scouts are acknowledging that again. Morrison is a very good, but not great, NBA prospect. That realization will likely cost him a few spots in the draft unless a team such as the Sonics or Blazers gets the No. 1 pick.
Rudy Gay, SF, Connecticut: By this time of the year, NBA scouts expect to see flashes of greatness from top-five prospects. Thomas, Noah and Aldridge all delivered at times. Gay? Not so much. He did have 20 points against George Mason in a losing effort on Sunday. But for the most part, scouts didn't see anything over the past four games to convince them that Gay is a potential No. 1 pick.
He grabbed some boards, hit a few jumpers and made a few plays. But he was rarely the best player on his team, let alone the floor. He has the tools. But he still has a long way to go before he figures out how to use them. That won't stop an NBA team from taking him in the lottery. But for now (until NBA team workouts that is) Gay has slipped out of contention for the No. 1 pick in the draft, according to the scouts Insider spoke with this weekend.
Rodney Carney, SF, Memphis: Carney has been trying to dump the "soft" label for the past three years. He did a great job of exorcising those demons during his senior season, but a so-so tournament has brought his stock back down to Earth. Carney's 2-for-12 performance against UCLA had scouts raising all the same concerns about toughness, focus and ability to perform in the clutch. Some team will fall in love with his combination of athleticism and shooting ability in individual workouts, but the tale of the tape is going to overcome.
Allan Ray, SG, Villanova: After Ray's great 25-point performance against Arizona last weekend, a few scouts were talking about him as a potential late first-round pick. But after two awful performances against Boston College (3-for-15) and Florida (5-for-19) that talk has cooled considerably. Ray has had an excellent season, but his NBA upside is questionable.
He's a good, but not great perimeter shooter who's undersized for his position and doesn't have the versatility to be anything more than a bench gunner. This isn't the way he wanted to end his career at Villanova. It will take a stellar performance at the Orlando pre-draft camp to get Ray's stock back on track.
"Big Baby" Davis still looks like a young Oliver Miller to me, except Davis has shorter arms (and a bigger mouth).
