Insider - Chad Ford - Trades might shake up draft, from top to bottom

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Updated: June 22, 2006, 11:45 AM ET

Trades might shake up draft, from top to bottom



By Chad Ford

With less than a week to go before the June 28 NBA draft, very few teams are on solid footing. Not only are most teams uncertain about who will be available when they make their pick, but also there is a major factor that is simply impossible for them to calculate accurately -- the trades that most think are coming.
Here's a take on the top prospects from an NBA team executive drafting in the high lottery.
"There are warts everywhere," he said. "Do you take a risk and go with upside or do you take a player who's going to be solid? Usually when you're drafting this high, you get a little of both. This year is different. I think there's one star, Adam Morrison. But he may not be the best player in the draft. I think this has led to all of the trade talk."
This "trade talk" is what could, more than anything else, upset everyone's expectations about how the draft will play out. After all, when you don't even know which teams are making the picks, how can you figure out who they're taking?
To try to sort things out, Insider has its ear to the ground, listening for trade rumblings. Here's what we're hearing about potential deals affecting the draft:


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[FONT=Arial,Hevetica,sans-serif]Toronto Raptors[/FONT]

Since the regular season ended, two small trades have gone down in the NBA, both involving the Raptors. Toronto sent Rafael Araujo to the Jazz for Kris Humphries and Robert Whaley. Then, on Wednesday, they sent Eric Williams and Matt Bonner to the Spurs for Rasho Nesterovic.
But just about everyone believes that another big trade is in the works, involving either the No. 1 pick or Charlie Villanueva.
So far, a number of rumors have popped up, involving Jermaine O'Neal, Samuel Dalembert, Jamaal Magloire and Brevin Knight. So far, all of them have been bogus.
Over the past few days, GM Bryan Colangelo has shot holes through all the scenarios. O'Neal would hurt their cap flexibility. Dalembert is overpaid. Magloire isn't worth the No. 1 pick. Knight isn't enough to motivate a swap of the No. 1 pick for Charlotte's No. 3 pick.
Colangelo reiterated on Wednesday that it would have to be something "much bigger" to move the pick at this point.
That probably shoots holes in some other trade scenarios currently out there.
The most popular has the Portland Trail Blazers packaging No. 4 and No. 30 along with Travis Outlaw or one of their young point guards to get up to No. 1. The deal would allow the Raptors to pick up a few extra assets and still be in a position to take Andrea Bargnani at No. 4. However, the word is that the Raptors aren't interested and that the Blazers are unwilling to sweeten the pot. They want Adam Morrison badly but apparently won't mortgage the franchise for a guy who could very well be there when they pick at No. 4.
The Houston Rockets have also tried to move up to get the No. 1 pick but just don't have the assets. Ditto for the Memphis Grizzlies. They'd be willing to offer just about anyone on their roster for No. 1 with the exception of Pau Gasol -- who is the only guy the Raptors would consider.
At this point, it appears the Raptors are leaning toward keeping the pick. But they're probably not done trading. Look for them to work a sign-and-trade deal to move Mike James this summer.



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[FONT=Arial,Hevetica,sans-serif]Chicago Bulls[/FONT]

Things have been pretty quiet in Chicago. Almost too quiet. The Bulls have more moveable assets than anyone else in the NBA at the moment. They have two very desirable first-round picks (No. 2 and No. 16), lots of young players with tradable contracts and a plenty of cap room this summer.
So are they going to make a deal?
A rumor that was floated last week had them talking with the Los Angeles Lakers about a deal that would send Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum to Chicago for Tyson Chandler and the No. 2 pick.
On Wednesday, a source said the Bulls might be considering trading the No. 2 pick and Chandler to the Phoenix Suns for Shawn Marion. With the pick, the Suns would select Tyrus Thomas. The move would help the Suns get the their salary-cap situation under control and allow them to re-sign Boris Diaw and Leandro Barbosa next summer.
More likely, the Bulls are keeping the pick and deciding between Thomas and Brandon Roy. A source in Chicago reiterated to Insider on Wednesday that they hadn't promised to draft Thomas and were still trying to decide which way to go.



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[FONT=Arial,Hevetica,sans-serif]Charlotte Bobcats[/FONT]

GM Bernie Bickerstaff has been active in trying to trade up or down in the draft.
The recently rumored swap that would send Brevin Knight and the No. 3 pick to Toronto for Alvin Williams and the No. 1 was shot down by Colangelo on Wednesday.
It's still unclear, however, what the Bobcats want to accomplish. With Michael Jordan in a decision-making role, will they dump their strategy of building slowly through the draft and opt for a more aggressive approach that brings in veterans?
At this point, the Bobcats look more and more likely to stay at No. 3. They are zeroing in on Roy, who's likely to be available when they pick.



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[FONT=Arial,Hevetica,sans-serif]Portland Trail Blazers[/FONT]

The Blazers might be happy at No. 4, but they'd be happier if they could move up to No. 1. Adam Morrison is the top guy on their draft board not only because of his talent but also because of his popularity in Portland.
The Blazers have created a huge gulf between the team and their fans, and drafting Morrison would definitely help bridge it. And their dream scenario is to find a way to get both Morrison and Brandon Roy. The Blazers have to do something to change their local image and their locker-room culture, and adding Morrison and/or Roy would be a huge step.
The problem is that the Blazers appear unwilling to give up the two guys most teams are interested in, Martell Webster and Jarrett Jack.
Instead, they are hoping that a combination of a young player plus No. 4, No. 30 and/or No. 31 will be enough. They have been shopping Zach Randolph, Darius Miles and Theo Ratliff, and they're willing to move some other players, as well.
I'm not so sure any of that will help the Blazers get Toronto's No. 1 pick. Whatever interest the Raptors might have in Travis Outlaw and Sebastian Telfair does not appear to be strong enough for the Raptors to give up the top pick, even with the Blazers' picks in the deal.
Look for the Blazers to get more suitors this summer when Joel Przybilla can be had via sign-and-trade.



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[FONT=Arial,Hevetica,sans-serif]Atlanta Hawks[/FONT]

Besides the Raptors, the Hawks have the most rumors swirling around them.
The hottest talk is that they promised to pick Shelden Williams. But, if so, when? Was it with the No. 5 pick? Or did they know they were trading down and wanted to try to improve their chances to get him in the lottery?
Or is it another team that has promised Williams and is ready to move up to No. 5 to get him?
One candidate might be the Philadelphia 76ers. The Hawks have interest in Allen Iverson, and the Sixers have interest in moving him. Sixers GM Billy King is a big fan of Williams and needs a young player to eventually replace the aging Chris Webber. Would the No. 5 pick and Al Harrington (via sign-and-trade) be enough for the Sixers to part with Iverson?
Another team could be the Seattle SuperSonics, who might be willing to offer Nick Collison and the No. 10 to Atlanta for the No. 5. The Sonics are also high on Williams, especially after losing their best rebounder, Reggie Evans, in February. With that pick the Hawks could get another forward and then take a point guard or combo guard -- UConn's Marcus Williams, Kentucky's Rajon Rondo or Villanova's Randy Foye -- at No. 10.



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[FONT=Arial,Hevetica,sans-serif]Minnesota Timberwolves[/FONT]

The Wolves have what it takes to get the No. 1 pick in the draft. All they have to do is say that Kevin Garnett is yours, and they get No. 1. But team president Kevin McHale says he's not trading Garnett and that no one at the top of the draft is worth Garnett.
However ... if the Raptors were to throw Charlie Villanueva into the deal and perhaps Mike James in a sign-and-trade, it might get more interesting.
The Wolves can get better offers, though. The Bulls and Warriors both have more assets than Toronto, if the Wolves want to deal. Right now it appears that they don't.
More likely, the team moves Marko Jaric and perhaps Ricky Davis to the Nuggets for Kenyon Martin.




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[FONT=Arial,Hevetica,sans-serif]Boston Celtics[/FONT]

The team doesn't have an acute need for the No. 7 pick, because it's unlikely the Celts can draft anyone there who can help immediately. Rather, they need veterans in the backcourt and in the middle who can help Paul Pierce and Wally Szczerbiak now.
But unless the Celtics can get a future pick (2007 first-round picks are highly valued right now), it appears unlikely Boston will trade its pick.
The alternative is trading Pierce, which the Celtics say they're not doing.


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[FONT=Arial,Hevetica,sans-serif]Houston Rockets[/FONT]

The Rockets have made attempts to move up in the draft. Morrison, with a healthy Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming, would help make the Rockets instant contenders.
The problem is that since the McGrady trade the Rockets have had few assets to offer in a trade. Stromile Swift and Luther Head are possibilities, but neither player's trade value is that high at the moment.
More likely, the Rockets to try to trade down or out of the draft in exchange for a veteran. The Rockets are in "win now" mode. With the exception of J. J. Redick, it's unclear anyone on the board can help them at No. 8.


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[FONT=Arial,Hevetica,sans-serif]Golden State Warriors[/FONT]

They are one of the most active teams in trade talks at the moment. The team they put together didn't gel, and the Warriors need to make some serious changes.
It appears that Mike Dunleavy, Troy Murphy and the No. 9 are the assets they're looking to move. However, considering the big contracts of Dunleavy and Murphy, they may have to include a young prospect like Andris Biedrins or Mickael Pietrus.
One rumored deal has the Warriors swapping Dunleavy, Murphy and the No. 9 pick to the Lakers for Lamar Odom and Aaron McKie.
Another has the Warriors sending Pietrus, Murphy and the No. 9 to the Bulls for Tyson Chandler and the No. 16.
Utah could be another trading partner. A deal that would send Pietrus and Murphy to Utah for Carlos Boozer has been rumored since February.


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[FONT=Arial,Hevetica,sans-serif]Orlando Magic[/FONT]

The team has been trying to move up in the draft to get Brandon Roy. But it appears they need to convince a team to take a combo of Hedo Turkoglu and the No. 11 pick, and they've been striking out.
Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson and Darko Milicic are untouchable right now.


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[FONT=Arial,Hevetica,sans-serif]New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets[/FONT]

The Hornets have been trying to pair their two picks (No. 12 and No. 15), along with J. R. Smith, to move up high in the draft. There was speculation that Charlotte (No. 3)might be the trade partner, but that has been shot down by the Bobcats.
Another possibility might be the Rockets' No. 8 pick, though that offer sounds a little high just to move up a few spots. But the move could get them Patrick O'Bryant, the big man they're after. The Rockets need assets right now and might be willing to throw in Stromile Swift to make a deal.


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[FONT=Arial,Hevetica,sans-serif]Philadelphia 76ers[/FONT]

We expect them to be among the most active teams this summer. Iverson is finally on the block. So are Chris Webber and Samuel Dalembert. The problem is that all three have terrible contracts, making it difficult for Billy King to do a good deal with anyone other than the Knicks.
A deal with Atlanta may be a possibility for Iverson. San Antonio has some interest in Samuel Dalembert. Moving Webber? Good luck.



[FONT=Arial,Hevetica,sans-serif]Utah Jazz[/FONT]

The Jazz have been trying to package Boozer in a trade that gets them up into the top 10, with the goal of getting Brandon Roy or Randy Foye. But no one's biting.
One possibility might to be to package a future first-round pick (their own or the future Knicks pick owned by the Jazz) to Seattle for the No. 10. The word is that the Sonics are trying to keep costs under control right now so that they can sign Chris Wilcox. Still, it's unclear whether Foye would be on the board at No. 10.
Other interesting trade scenarios have cropped up for the Jazz. In particular, the Warriors, Lakers and Bucks have shown interest in Boozer.
The Bucks might be willing to part with Jamaal Magloire and Mo Williams in return for Boozer. That would be an intriguing deal for the Jazz, who could address their needs in the frontcourt and the backcourt in one fell swoop.
The Lakers deal would probably have to be a three-way trade: Boozer and the No. 14 going to L.A., with Odom ending up at another destination. Odom wouldn't be a great fit for Utah, but he could be the player to get them the two guard they want.


[FONT=Arial,Hevetica,sans-serif]Indiana Pacers[/FONT]

The Pacers are unhappy with how their team responded last season and have had conversations about blowing it up. That means Jermaine O'Neal, for the first time in his Pacers career, is not untouchable.
While rumors of a swap with the Raptors appear bogus, at least two teams might be willing to give the Pacers what they want for O'Neal: a high draft pick, a young prospect and salary cap room for the summer of 2007.
The Bulls have a number of ways to make that scenario work. For instance, they could swap the No. 2 and Ben Gordon or Luol Deng for O'Neal because they are under the salary cap.
The Hawks could offer a similar deal of the No. 5, Marvin Williams or Josh Smith and Zaza Pachulia for O'Neal.



[FONT=Arial,Hevetica,sans-serif]Denver Nuggets[/FONT]

The Nuggets are interested in trading Kenyon Martin (to the Knicks or Timberwolves) and Andre Miller (to the Celtics) to clear cap space or move up in the draft.
There's also been talk of Marcus Camby going to the Bulls in exchange for Tyson Chandler and the No. 16.




[FONT=Arial,Hevetica,sans-serif]Miami Heat[/FONT]

The Heat are trying to use Dorell Wright to move up in the draft to get their hands on a Pat Riley favorite -- Guillermo Diaz.



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[FONT=Arial,Hevetica,sans-serif]Phoenix Suns[/FONT]

They've been trying to package the No. 21 and No. 27 picks to move up. Their target is presumably a big man like Mouhamed Saer Sene or Hilton Armstrong, though Rajon Rondo and Sergio Rodriguez are also high on their list.
The Suns are also willing to do a bigger deal if they can get into the top 3. Leandro Barbosa can be had. The Suns love him, but aren't sure they can afford to re-sign him next summer. Shawn Marion is a long shot -- a team would have to offer a great player and a high pick to get him.



[FONT=Arial,Hevetica,sans-serif]New Jersey Nets[/FONT]

The Nets would love to be able to package the No. 22 and No. 23 picks to move up and get an athletic big.
Another option would be to package Antoine Wright and Zoran Planinic with one of their picks to move up.
As for the rumors that Richard Jefferson is on the block, I'm told they're bogus.



[FONT=Arial,Hevetica,sans-serif]New York Knicks[/FONT]

Knicks president Isiah Thomas had just about everyone on the trading block along with the No. 20 and No. 29 picks.
However, unless Channing Frye is included in the deal (he won't be according to a Knicks source), they're probably not moving up significantly in the draft.



[FONT=Arial,Hevetica,sans-serif]Memphis Grizzlies[/FONT]

After another first-round playoff exit, the Grizzlies are back at the drawing board.
They desperately need a point guard and are still paper thin in the middle.
I've heard that just about anyone on the roster, other than Pau Gasol, is available.
The Grizzlies have been trying to move up to get Adam Morrison. While he doesn't currently fit a need, maybe Jerry West has something else going on.

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[FONT=Arial,Hevetica,sans-serif]Los Angeles Lakers[/FONT]

The Lakers have been shopping Andrew Bynum and Chris Mihm. Lamar Odom can be had, too, but the price is significantly higher.
Their target in the draft? Brandon Roy.
 

boisesuns

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Interesting. There should be a lot of moves this year. One thing I don't agree with with his take on the Rockets beign a contender if they get morrison.
 

SunsTzu

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I have a hard time believing the Suns would trade Marion for Chandler and Tyrus Thomas.
 

asudevil83

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one trade that was brought up a LONG time ago from someone on another board was:

Suns trade: Kurt/Barbosa/#21
Rockets trade: Swift/Head/#8

Swift would be a better fit for this team than Thomas. he's younger, faster, and can do most of the same things (except for the outside shot). Head plays just like Barbosa, MAYBE a little more PG oriented. the #8 pick could be used to net Marcus Williams.

this would solve a good amount of problems for us.

KT next to Yao would also be a nice pair. i see KT more suited for a slower half court oriented game. Barbosa next to Alston would be a fun backcourt too. and the #21 would be used to suit their needs.
 

abomb

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I have a hard time believing the Lakers are shopping Bynum or Odom.
 

boisesuns

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asudevil83 said:
one trade that was brought up a LONG time ago from someone on another board was:

Suns trade: Kurt/Barbosa/#21
Rockets trade: Swift/Head/#8

Swift would be a better fit for this team than Thomas. he's younger, faster, and can do most of the same things (except for the outside shot). Head plays just like Barbosa, MAYBE a little more PG oriented. the #8 pick could be used to net Marcus Williams.

this would solve a good amount of problems for us.

KT next to Yao would also be a nice pair. i see KT more suited for a slower half court oriented game. Barbosa next to Alston would be a fun backcourt too. and the #21 would be used to suit their needs.

Swift has gotten the Lazy label everywhere he's been. Kurt's shooting is going to be big for the suns, becuase without it, he would just clog the lane. I think swift would do that. We may be able to get something decent for #8, but I don;t think it would be anything that makes this trade worth it.
 

abomb

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boisesuns said:
Swift has gotten the Lazy label everywhere he's been. Kurt's shooting is going to be big for the suns, becuase without it, he would just clog the lane. I think swift would do that. We may be able to get something decent for #8, but I don;t think it would be anything that makes this trade worth it.

Dont discount Luther Head either, some people had him as the 3-4 best rookie last year. I have always liked Swift, not sure why though.
 

boisesuns

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abomb said:
Dont discount Luther Head either, some people had him as the 3-4 best rookie last year. I have always liked Swift, not sure why though.

I haven't seen him play too much. Swift is very athletic, but seems to fall out of favor with the coaches and the rotation.
 

Bada0Bing

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I remember reading something a few years ago that Swift is so lazy that the team has to send someone to his house to make sure that he’s out of bed in time to make it to practices. I’m not sure if it’s true or not, but it was so funny to me that I just haven’t been able to forget it.
 

tobiazz

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I'm a little more concerned about the Hawks rumors than the Suns rumors. I don't want them to get a guy like Iverson who can single-handedly lower their (our) pick in the next draft by a few spots.
 

Gaddabout

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I really hope the Suns don't trade into the Top 3 this season. It will cost them a rotation player, and if we're going to alter the rotation, I'd just assume trade veteran for veteran. Trading a rotation player to get a Top 3 pick is a much, MUCH bigger gamble.

I think a lot of what's driving the Marion for No. 2 trade talk is the comparisons of Tyrus Thomas to Marion. Now, I like Tyrus Thomas as a prospect, but he's not Marion, not yet. I think Thomas is much more like a Stromile Swift but with a better attitude. He needs to go to a team like Chicago. He could not come close as a rookie to filling all the roles Marion does for this team. He would also be a liability in floor spacing on offense.
 

scoutmasterdave

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Gaddabout said:
He would also be a liability in floor spacing on offense.
Thomas has a very good mid-range jumper, I'd say better than Marion's. He shot 60% from the floor at LSU last year. He definintely doesn't have Marion's range (at least not yet), but he's a good shooter. I don't think spacing would be much of an issue with a little work on his range.
 

JCSunsfan

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I wonder how badly Philly wants to move Iverson. If Atlanta can get him without giving up too much, it might mean that our pick from Atlanta might not be nearly as good as we hope. JJ and Iverson would be a pretty good back court.

I think it would probably be both safe and wise to trade that pick, if we get a decent offer now. There are too many things that could go wrong between now and next year to hang onto it too tightly.
 

George O'Brien

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It would never happen in a million years, but I wonder how a Marion for Odom deal would play out. The Suns would have to take some bad contracts (Marion makes $2.5 million more) and probably give up their Hawks pick, but I think Odom would really thrive playing on the Suns.
 

George O'Brien

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thegrahamcrackr said:
Marion has more value than Odom....

It would be the Lakers giving up extra...

Statistically you are certainly correct, but Odom has never played on an up tempo team nor with a quality big man teammate much less an all star point guard. I may be wrong, but he looked pretty good in the playoffs.
 

cly2tw

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George O'Brien said:
It would never happen in a million years, but I wonder how a Marion for Odom deal would play out. The Suns would have to take some bad contracts (Marion makes $2.5 million more) and probably give up their Hawks pick, but I think Odom would really thrive playing on the Suns.

An Amare/Odom/Diaw frontcourt would be sick. We'd have no need for TT in that case and I could imagine a s&t as part of the Marion for Odom deal. But I'd have no idea why Lakers would prefer Marion to Odom though.
 

thegrahamcrackr

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George O'Brien said:
Statistically you are certainly correct, but Odom has never played on an up tempo team nor with a quality big man teammate much less an all star point guard. I may be wrong, but he looked pretty good in the playoffs.

He looked good in 1 round of the playoffs. The problem is that he is never consistant. Marion is a 2-time allstar, and has thrived in countless situations.

His value is much, much higher than Odom's


Also - Odom played with Elton Brand for a couple years.
 

SunsTzu

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Not to mention Odom is one too good a time away from joining Birdman.
 

hsandhu

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Man, I never thought about Marion for Odom, but I like it. They have the same amount of years on their contracts, but odom makes less, and with the rule changing that salaries in trades have to be within 25%, that deal can go through straight up.

The lakers would do that deal just to try and shake things up.

It works for the suns because

1) odom makes less
2) is a year and a half younger
3) and most importantly, flat out has more talent than marion. go back and look at the threads during the laker series, most everyone agreed on the fact that when shawn plays his best and lamar plays his best, lamar is better. Lamar odom can at times be unguardable on offense, something you'll never be able to say about shawn (much less even him creating his own score in a half court set).
 

hsandhu

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If the lakers don't want marion, do a three way with chicago, with the #2 and a player.

Just think about this:

Is there any chance Bruce Bowen can guard odom? No, odom will do to him what dirk was able to.

Can Josh Howard guard odom? Again, no. He'll punish him in the post. but..

has quick enough feet to stay infront of him on defensive (something boris had a ton of trouble with). I know this because during the laker series when he switched off on nash he did a hell of a job staying in front of him w/ his lateral movement, and bothered him with his long arms (the only big i saw do as good a job was varejao of cleveland). That's why the man odom was guarding tended not to be involved in the pick w/ nash.

I know it sounds crazy but odom for marion can make this team better, and marion's trade value right now is not any higher.
 

Joe Mama

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SunsTzu said:
Not to mention Odom is one too good a time away from joining Birdman.

most of you guys know what I think of Lamar Odom vs. Shawn Marion. The latter may be a little bit better and more consistent during the regular season, but when everybody is giving 110% in the playoffs Odom is the better player. For those of you obsessed with rebounds, I could easily see Lamar Odom averaging 10 rebounds per game for this team.

Now back to reality. :-(

As SunsTzu not so eloquently put it above, Lamar Odom is one failed drug test away from a long-term suspension. There are other reasons a Shawn Marion/Odom swap would probably not go down, but this one is the icing on the cake IMO.

Joe
 

boisesuns

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Joe Mama said:
There are other reasons a Shawn Marion/Odom swap would probably not go down, but this one is the icing on the cake IMO.

Joe

or the "Ingredient" in the brownies if you will:)
 

F-Dog

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cly2tw said:
An Amare/Odom/Diaw frontcourt would be sick. We'd have no need for TT in that case and I could imagine a s&t as part of the Marion for Odom deal. But I'd have no idea why Lakers would prefer Marion to Odom though.
Crazy talk.

Odom does well against Marion head-to-head, but who cares? The Suns aren't worried about Odom, they're worried about Nowitzki and Tim Duncan, and Marion is the one who can actually guard one of those guys.

Plus, with Amare/Odom/Diaw, you've got three players who all need significant touches to work their way into the game. "Why did _____ completely disappear from the game?" would be the main topic of discussion after every loss for the entire year.



I do like the logic of "Let's trade our 40-minute guy for that 38-minute guy, so that we can get rid of our 24-minute guy", though. :rolleyes:
 

Gaddabout

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This must be hypothetical dream talk, because neither the Lakers nor the Suns will ever trade starters within their own division. Neither team would even do a three-way. It's iffy enough within the conference.
 
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