NBA Draft: Down year for sophomores
By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Send an Email to Chad Ford Friday, December 12
The cream of the high school class of 2001 has already been skimmed off. Amare Stoudemire, Carmelo Anthony and Chris Bosh head the class and all three players look like they will be all-stars for years to come in the league.
"That class was pretty top heavy," one NBA scout said. "With the exception of Bosh and Stoudemire, there just weren't a lot of big men. Most of the really talented players left in the class are guards. That's a little disappointing, but there are some talented kids left."
Any given sophomore class is usually pay dirt for NBA scouts. Very few players leave after their freshman year, meaning the class is mostly intact. And, with two years of college ball under their belts, the really talented sophomores are usually ready to make the jump to the NBA and make an impact right away.
This year may be a little different. "The depth isn't there quite the way we like," one scout said. "I look at every player on this list and my gut reaction is for them to go back to school for one more year. I usually can point to two or three sophomores and say they're ready. It's a little tougher this year."
He's right. With the exception of Arizona's Andre Iguodala and Florida's Christian Drejer, scouts were split on almost every other prospect from the class.
Here's a quick look at 10 sophomores whom scouts will be watching this season.
Andre Iguodala, SG, Arizona
The facts: 6-6, 200; 13.2 ppg, 10.8 rpg, 7.2 apg on 38 percent shooting
The skinny: It will surprise some to see Iguodala at the top of this list, but of the NBA scouts and player personnel people Insider interviewed, all but one had him pegged as a lottery pick. Why? One, he's a phenomenal athlete (think Richard Jefferson) with an NBA body (again think Jefferson). The difference between the two is that Iguodala has extraordinary court vision for a player his size. While no one is claiming he's a point guard, he's got a fantastic handle and great feel for the game. The 7.2 apg is surprising everyone and has led many to believe that he'll play three positions at the next level. The knock on Iguodala is his outside shooting, but scouts feel that it's starting to come around. If he continues this pace and declares at the end of the season, you'll see him in the lottery.
Christian Drejer, G/F, Florida
The facts: 6-foot-9, 225 pounds; 10 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 4 apg on 45 percent shooting
The skinny: Having Drejer at No. 2 will also come as a surprise. Drejer is a native of Denmark who flirted with going straight to the NBA in 2002. Had he done so, he would've been a mid-first-round pick. Injuries limited his production at Florida last season, but now that he's healthy and considerably bulked up, he's starting to shine. Again, the appeal is versatility and basketball IQ for someone his size. He's an extraordinary passer and draws the occasional comparison from some scouts to Toni Kukoc. He's a good athlete, has a nice mid-range jumper (though his 3-point shot still isn't very consistent) and he's also starting to turn some heads on the defensive end. Scouts see him as a point forward in the pros. Those are hard to come by, which is why Drejer has some buzz right now. If he waited another season and became a college star, he'd have a shot at a Top 5 pick. As it stands now, he's probably a late lottery to mid-first-rounder.
Paul Davis, PF, Michigan State
The facts: 6-11, 250; 12.7 ppg, 7.2 rpg on 43 percent shooting
The skinny: Davis resembles a European prospect because he's still much more comfortable on the perimeter than in the post. That's pretty much unheard of for a 6-11 American player. He's got an excellent jump shot, solid fundamentals, some nice post moves and is an OK rebounder. The biggest question scouts have is what position he'll play. He's not a great athlete, which pretty much rules out the three. If he's going to be a four in the league, he's going to have to get stronger. A disappointing start to his season hasn't helped his cause.
Torin Francis, PF, Notre Dame
The facts: 6-10, 240; 17.5 ppg, 11.5 rpg, 3 bpg on 50 percent shooting
The skinny: Scouts can't seem to agree on Francis. Everyone loves his body, physical strength and agility for a power forward. He's a bruiser with decent moves around the basket and is one of the most talented rebounders and shot blockers in college basketball. That's where the consensus stops. Some scouts feel he's a great prospect and has a shot at the lottery. Others think that his lack of any face-the-basket game, combined with bad hands and a thin lower body, could be an issue. Most of Francis' bulk is in his upper body. That looks great, but in the NBA you need to have a strong lower body to hold your position on the block. They believe he needs at least another year at Notre Dame before even thinking about coming out.
Raymond Felton, PG, North Carolina
The facts: 6-1, 192; 8.6 ppg, 9.6 apg on 37 percent shooting
The skinny: Felton is considered the best "pure" point guard in the college ranks right now. With so many coaches clamoring for old school point guards to lead the show, and with a weak point guard draft class, Felton should rise based just on the fact that he's so good at what he does. It's funny that he gets that label considering he averaged 30 ppg in high school. He's adjusted his game in college, giving scouts hope that when he comes to the NBA, the'll get the best of both worlds. He's super quick, athletic, gets to the lane at will and has an extraordinary ability to find the open man. He's at his best when he's pushing the ball up the floor and hounding opposing point guards on the defensive end. He reminds some of a bigger, stronger version of T.J. Ford. He's a better shooter than Ford, but not a great one. He scores most of his points in penetration. He plays with an intensity that teams love. If he were two or three inches taller, he'd be a lottery pick for sure. Right now, scouts think the mid first round is probably where he'll be taken.
Ike Diogu, PF, Arizona State
The facts: 6-8, 250; 22.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 2.8 bpg on 56 percent shooting
The skinny: Another guy who draws a major split among scouts. Most were very high on Diogu before a disastrous performance at the junior trials in Colorado Springs this summer. Scouts felt that Diogu's lack of size and athleticism exposed him as a player who is smart enough to excel at the college level but doesn't have the skill to make it in the pros. Others look at what he's doing in the Pac-10 this season and laugh at that. Fundamentally, he's pretty skilled for a big man. He knows how to play in the paint, has great body control and finds a way to get the ball in the basket down low. He also had added a nice mid-range jumper to his repertoire.. He has NBA strength, gets to the line and shoots 80 percent when he's there. His lack of explosiveness limits his rebounding and shot blocking prospects in the pros. He'll be a hard guy to project. Some teams love him, others don't. He's an "eye of the beholder" player right now.
Jarret Jack, PG, Georgia Tech
The facts: 6-3, 200; 14 ppg, 8.4 apg, 6.3 rpg, 2.7 spg on 58 percent shooting
The skinny: He's the sleeper in the group. He's got great size and unbelievable court vision for a point. He's got a very nice outside jumper and has a little flair to his game that the fans love. He's got an NBA body and is a good athlete. Has been flying under the radar a bit, but scouts are getting turned on to him. He's still plays a little out of control sometimes, but most scouts feel that the talent is there. Probably will need another year of school, but then again, that doesn't stop most kids from declaring early.
Antoine Wright, SF, Texas A&M
The facts: 6-7, 200; 11 ppg, 3.4 rpg 35 percent shooting
The skinny: The Big 12 Freshman of the Year got a unusual amount of hype at the start of the season, but so far his performance has been shaky at best. He's a good athlete who can smoothly play multiple positions, but his streaky jump shot and terrible free-throw shooting are big issues with scouts. He seems more comfortable shooting the 3 than doing anything else on the floor. Scouts see the potential, but he hasn't really delivered enough to warrant being a first-round pick right now.
Sean May, PF, North Carolina
The facts: 6-8, 260; 20.8 ppg, 9.4 rpg on 63 percent shooting
The skinny: May may be the best offensive big man in the country. The son of former IU great Scott May, May is so smooth in the post it's amazing. The comparisons to Elton Brand and Zach Randolph come up all the time, so why is he not at the top of the list. A couple of things. One, conditioning is still an issue. He's had a weight problem in his career and that always gives scouts pause. Two, he's undersized for the position he plays. Three, with his injury last season, scouts still don't have a great feel for him. He develops some consistency, keeps his weight off and leads North Carolina to a title, he's going to move way up this list.
Bracey Wright, G, Indiana
The facts: 6-5, 200; 21 ppg, 6 rpg on 44 percent shooting
The skinny: He's a long, explosive two guard with a pretty dangerous 3-point shot. He can create his own shot, which is big with pro scouts. He can jump out of the gym and uses his long arms to play bigger than he actually is. Despite his solid perimeter game, he can be equally dangerous putting the ball on the floor and taking it to the rim. He draws a lot of comparisons to Cuttino Mobley from scouts. Scouts fear that Wright is much closer to 6-foot-3 than his listed height of 6-5. If that's true, his stock will fall a bit.
The best of the rest: Hassan Adams, SG, Arizona; Anthony Roberson, PG, Florida; Shelden Williams, PF, Duke; Kennedy Winston, SF, Alabama; Daniel Horton, PG, Michigan; J.J. Redick, G, Duke; Dee Brown, G, Illinois; Kelenna Azubuike, G, Kentucky; Denham Brown, F, UConn; Rashad McCants, G, North Carolina; Keith Butler, C, Temple; Shavlik Randolph, F, Duke; John Gilchrist, G, Maryland
Draft Cards
A few weeks ago we wrote that scouts were still on the fence a bit about Syracuse's Hakim Warrick. Scouts have always loved Warrick's athleticism and energy, but questions about his position, perimeter shot, leadership and basketball savvy have haunted him.
Was Warrick's success last year the byproduct of defenders paying so much attention to Carmelo Anthony? Or is Warrick a star in the making?
That opinion is starting to change. Syracuse has played only three games, but in those games Warrick has averaged 25.7 ppg and eight rpg, and is shooting 50 percent from the field. The perimeter shot still isn't stellar, but it's getting there. Ditto with the ball handling.
Still, one thing bothers scouts tremendously about Warrick. He doesn't block shots. For someone so athletic and explosive, Warrick should be averaging a couple of blocks per game. Warrick tends not to gamble, which is why his average is low, but the concern still remains. He should be better. Maybe he just hasn't been taught.
As for his draft position, scouts are still mixed. Some see him as definite late-lottery material, others, still jaded by Darius Miles' poor NBA performance, think he'll never go high than the mid-to-late first round unless he gets a solid jumper.
BYU's Brazilian center Rafael Araujo is wowing scouts with a strong start to his season. Araujo is averaging 20.5 ppg and 11.8 rpg on 63 percent shooting from the field. He's doing all of this in just over 25 minutes per game.
The 6-foot-11 Brazilian native is a wide load who, like Yugoslavian Predrag Drobjnak, prefers to face the basket. However, scouts have been impressed with his new found low-post moves this season.
"He's improved tremendously," one scout said. "He isn't the quickest or most athletic guy in the world, but he's doing some real damage offensively in the paint. It's tough to find guys in college who can do that."
While scouts claim that Araujo is just an average defender and passer and doesn't have great shot blocking ability, most of them now plant him firmly in the first round. By the end of the season, he could go even higher.
"There aren't many big guys who are his size and have his strength," the scout said. "I think he'll have a place in the league. We all love his learning curve. He really took a major jump this summer and that's what we want to see."
By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Send an Email to Chad Ford Friday, December 12
The cream of the high school class of 2001 has already been skimmed off. Amare Stoudemire, Carmelo Anthony and Chris Bosh head the class and all three players look like they will be all-stars for years to come in the league.
"That class was pretty top heavy," one NBA scout said. "With the exception of Bosh and Stoudemire, there just weren't a lot of big men. Most of the really talented players left in the class are guards. That's a little disappointing, but there are some talented kids left."
Any given sophomore class is usually pay dirt for NBA scouts. Very few players leave after their freshman year, meaning the class is mostly intact. And, with two years of college ball under their belts, the really talented sophomores are usually ready to make the jump to the NBA and make an impact right away.
This year may be a little different. "The depth isn't there quite the way we like," one scout said. "I look at every player on this list and my gut reaction is for them to go back to school for one more year. I usually can point to two or three sophomores and say they're ready. It's a little tougher this year."
He's right. With the exception of Arizona's Andre Iguodala and Florida's Christian Drejer, scouts were split on almost every other prospect from the class.
Here's a quick look at 10 sophomores whom scouts will be watching this season.
Andre Iguodala, SG, Arizona
The facts: 6-6, 200; 13.2 ppg, 10.8 rpg, 7.2 apg on 38 percent shooting
The skinny: It will surprise some to see Iguodala at the top of this list, but of the NBA scouts and player personnel people Insider interviewed, all but one had him pegged as a lottery pick. Why? One, he's a phenomenal athlete (think Richard Jefferson) with an NBA body (again think Jefferson). The difference between the two is that Iguodala has extraordinary court vision for a player his size. While no one is claiming he's a point guard, he's got a fantastic handle and great feel for the game. The 7.2 apg is surprising everyone and has led many to believe that he'll play three positions at the next level. The knock on Iguodala is his outside shooting, but scouts feel that it's starting to come around. If he continues this pace and declares at the end of the season, you'll see him in the lottery.
Christian Drejer, G/F, Florida
The facts: 6-foot-9, 225 pounds; 10 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 4 apg on 45 percent shooting
The skinny: Having Drejer at No. 2 will also come as a surprise. Drejer is a native of Denmark who flirted with going straight to the NBA in 2002. Had he done so, he would've been a mid-first-round pick. Injuries limited his production at Florida last season, but now that he's healthy and considerably bulked up, he's starting to shine. Again, the appeal is versatility and basketball IQ for someone his size. He's an extraordinary passer and draws the occasional comparison from some scouts to Toni Kukoc. He's a good athlete, has a nice mid-range jumper (though his 3-point shot still isn't very consistent) and he's also starting to turn some heads on the defensive end. Scouts see him as a point forward in the pros. Those are hard to come by, which is why Drejer has some buzz right now. If he waited another season and became a college star, he'd have a shot at a Top 5 pick. As it stands now, he's probably a late lottery to mid-first-rounder.
Paul Davis, PF, Michigan State
The facts: 6-11, 250; 12.7 ppg, 7.2 rpg on 43 percent shooting
The skinny: Davis resembles a European prospect because he's still much more comfortable on the perimeter than in the post. That's pretty much unheard of for a 6-11 American player. He's got an excellent jump shot, solid fundamentals, some nice post moves and is an OK rebounder. The biggest question scouts have is what position he'll play. He's not a great athlete, which pretty much rules out the three. If he's going to be a four in the league, he's going to have to get stronger. A disappointing start to his season hasn't helped his cause.
Torin Francis, PF, Notre Dame
The facts: 6-10, 240; 17.5 ppg, 11.5 rpg, 3 bpg on 50 percent shooting
The skinny: Scouts can't seem to agree on Francis. Everyone loves his body, physical strength and agility for a power forward. He's a bruiser with decent moves around the basket and is one of the most talented rebounders and shot blockers in college basketball. That's where the consensus stops. Some scouts feel he's a great prospect and has a shot at the lottery. Others think that his lack of any face-the-basket game, combined with bad hands and a thin lower body, could be an issue. Most of Francis' bulk is in his upper body. That looks great, but in the NBA you need to have a strong lower body to hold your position on the block. They believe he needs at least another year at Notre Dame before even thinking about coming out.
Raymond Felton, PG, North Carolina
The facts: 6-1, 192; 8.6 ppg, 9.6 apg on 37 percent shooting
The skinny: Felton is considered the best "pure" point guard in the college ranks right now. With so many coaches clamoring for old school point guards to lead the show, and with a weak point guard draft class, Felton should rise based just on the fact that he's so good at what he does. It's funny that he gets that label considering he averaged 30 ppg in high school. He's adjusted his game in college, giving scouts hope that when he comes to the NBA, the'll get the best of both worlds. He's super quick, athletic, gets to the lane at will and has an extraordinary ability to find the open man. He's at his best when he's pushing the ball up the floor and hounding opposing point guards on the defensive end. He reminds some of a bigger, stronger version of T.J. Ford. He's a better shooter than Ford, but not a great one. He scores most of his points in penetration. He plays with an intensity that teams love. If he were two or three inches taller, he'd be a lottery pick for sure. Right now, scouts think the mid first round is probably where he'll be taken.
Ike Diogu, PF, Arizona State
The facts: 6-8, 250; 22.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 2.8 bpg on 56 percent shooting
The skinny: Another guy who draws a major split among scouts. Most were very high on Diogu before a disastrous performance at the junior trials in Colorado Springs this summer. Scouts felt that Diogu's lack of size and athleticism exposed him as a player who is smart enough to excel at the college level but doesn't have the skill to make it in the pros. Others look at what he's doing in the Pac-10 this season and laugh at that. Fundamentally, he's pretty skilled for a big man. He knows how to play in the paint, has great body control and finds a way to get the ball in the basket down low. He also had added a nice mid-range jumper to his repertoire.. He has NBA strength, gets to the line and shoots 80 percent when he's there. His lack of explosiveness limits his rebounding and shot blocking prospects in the pros. He'll be a hard guy to project. Some teams love him, others don't. He's an "eye of the beholder" player right now.
Jarret Jack, PG, Georgia Tech
The facts: 6-3, 200; 14 ppg, 8.4 apg, 6.3 rpg, 2.7 spg on 58 percent shooting
The skinny: He's the sleeper in the group. He's got great size and unbelievable court vision for a point. He's got a very nice outside jumper and has a little flair to his game that the fans love. He's got an NBA body and is a good athlete. Has been flying under the radar a bit, but scouts are getting turned on to him. He's still plays a little out of control sometimes, but most scouts feel that the talent is there. Probably will need another year of school, but then again, that doesn't stop most kids from declaring early.
Antoine Wright, SF, Texas A&M
The facts: 6-7, 200; 11 ppg, 3.4 rpg 35 percent shooting
The skinny: The Big 12 Freshman of the Year got a unusual amount of hype at the start of the season, but so far his performance has been shaky at best. He's a good athlete who can smoothly play multiple positions, but his streaky jump shot and terrible free-throw shooting are big issues with scouts. He seems more comfortable shooting the 3 than doing anything else on the floor. Scouts see the potential, but he hasn't really delivered enough to warrant being a first-round pick right now.
Sean May, PF, North Carolina
The facts: 6-8, 260; 20.8 ppg, 9.4 rpg on 63 percent shooting
The skinny: May may be the best offensive big man in the country. The son of former IU great Scott May, May is so smooth in the post it's amazing. The comparisons to Elton Brand and Zach Randolph come up all the time, so why is he not at the top of the list. A couple of things. One, conditioning is still an issue. He's had a weight problem in his career and that always gives scouts pause. Two, he's undersized for the position he plays. Three, with his injury last season, scouts still don't have a great feel for him. He develops some consistency, keeps his weight off and leads North Carolina to a title, he's going to move way up this list.
Bracey Wright, G, Indiana
The facts: 6-5, 200; 21 ppg, 6 rpg on 44 percent shooting
The skinny: He's a long, explosive two guard with a pretty dangerous 3-point shot. He can create his own shot, which is big with pro scouts. He can jump out of the gym and uses his long arms to play bigger than he actually is. Despite his solid perimeter game, he can be equally dangerous putting the ball on the floor and taking it to the rim. He draws a lot of comparisons to Cuttino Mobley from scouts. Scouts fear that Wright is much closer to 6-foot-3 than his listed height of 6-5. If that's true, his stock will fall a bit.
The best of the rest: Hassan Adams, SG, Arizona; Anthony Roberson, PG, Florida; Shelden Williams, PF, Duke; Kennedy Winston, SF, Alabama; Daniel Horton, PG, Michigan; J.J. Redick, G, Duke; Dee Brown, G, Illinois; Kelenna Azubuike, G, Kentucky; Denham Brown, F, UConn; Rashad McCants, G, North Carolina; Keith Butler, C, Temple; Shavlik Randolph, F, Duke; John Gilchrist, G, Maryland
Draft Cards
A few weeks ago we wrote that scouts were still on the fence a bit about Syracuse's Hakim Warrick. Scouts have always loved Warrick's athleticism and energy, but questions about his position, perimeter shot, leadership and basketball savvy have haunted him.
Was Warrick's success last year the byproduct of defenders paying so much attention to Carmelo Anthony? Or is Warrick a star in the making?
That opinion is starting to change. Syracuse has played only three games, but in those games Warrick has averaged 25.7 ppg and eight rpg, and is shooting 50 percent from the field. The perimeter shot still isn't stellar, but it's getting there. Ditto with the ball handling.
Still, one thing bothers scouts tremendously about Warrick. He doesn't block shots. For someone so athletic and explosive, Warrick should be averaging a couple of blocks per game. Warrick tends not to gamble, which is why his average is low, but the concern still remains. He should be better. Maybe he just hasn't been taught.
As for his draft position, scouts are still mixed. Some see him as definite late-lottery material, others, still jaded by Darius Miles' poor NBA performance, think he'll never go high than the mid-to-late first round unless he gets a solid jumper.
BYU's Brazilian center Rafael Araujo is wowing scouts with a strong start to his season. Araujo is averaging 20.5 ppg and 11.8 rpg on 63 percent shooting from the field. He's doing all of this in just over 25 minutes per game.
The 6-foot-11 Brazilian native is a wide load who, like Yugoslavian Predrag Drobjnak, prefers to face the basket. However, scouts have been impressed with his new found low-post moves this season.
"He's improved tremendously," one scout said. "He isn't the quickest or most athletic guy in the world, but he's doing some real damage offensively in the paint. It's tough to find guys in college who can do that."
While scouts claim that Araujo is just an average defender and passer and doesn't have great shot blocking ability, most of them now plant him firmly in the first round. By the end of the season, he could go even higher.
"There aren't many big guys who are his size and have his strength," the scout said. "I think he'll have a place in the league. We all love his learning curve. He really took a major jump this summer and that's what we want to see."
