Insider Dec. 21 - 22nd, Are the Kings better without Webber?

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Are the Kings better without Webber?
By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Send an Email to Chad Ford Sunday, December 21
Updated: December 22
11:07 AM ET


A big injury to a star player can turn even the best of teams into bottom feeders. But that's not exactly true this year. A few teams -- the Kings and Grizzlies come to mind -- are actually playing better without a key player.

Of course, that leads us to the obvious bar room debate -- are the Kings better off without Chris Webber? Would the Grizzlies be smart just to leave Jason Williams on the injured list for the next few months? Are there other teams out there that might be better if one of their top players stayed on the IL?

Insider breaks down the NBA at Week 8, including five teams that may be better off without an injured star; the second coming of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade; Donald Sterling's big payoff and one big reason why it may be too early to write off the Magic just yet.


Better off dead? What I'm about to say goes against everything we think we know about the NBA. You know the mantra by now. Stars win championships. Point guards lead their teams to victory. You need veterans to take home a ring. Low-post bangers and perimeter sharp shooters are essential to any team wants to still be playing in June.
Maybe. But for teams like the Kings, Grizzlies, Mavericks, Knicks and Timberwolves, watch them play and dominate without a key player and then ask yourself -- will they be as good when the guy making $15 million returns? The answer isn't always as cut-and-dry as it appears.

Better off without Chris Webber?

Chris Webber
Power Forward
Sacramento Kings
Profile


2003-2004 SEASON STATISTICS
GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
- - - - - -



Yes: The Kings have the second-best record in the NBA (19-6) without Webber. They rank first in the NBA in points scored. In Webber's absence, Brad Miller has moved from center to power forward and put up career numbers -- 15.6 ppg, 10.5 rpg, 5 apg and 1.5 bpg on 53 percent shooting from the field. The combo of Vlade Divac and Miller anchoring the middle gives Sacramento one of the biggest, best passing front lines in the NBA. The loss of Webber has also forced Peja Stojakovic to take his game to another level. His 24.3 ppg and 5.7 rpg on 50 percent shooting are all career highs. When Webber comes back, will the chemistry this group has developed fade? Webber demanded 21.4 shots per game last season to get to his 23 ppg average. He needs those shots to get into his game. Stojakovic needs just 17 shots per game to average 24.3 ppg. And Miller, who has similar numbers to Webber last season in every category but points, needs just 11.1 shots per game. When you factor in that Miller shoots 16 percentage points higher than Webber from the line, who do you want taking shots in the fourth quarter?

No: When he's healthy, Webber is one of the most dominant power forwards in the NBA. He's more athletic than Miller, a better defender and a better low-post scorer. With so many perimeter options for the Kings, Webber's presence on the block may actually give players like Stojakovic and Miller more wide open looks. Besides, it won't be Miller who sees a cut in playing time. Divac is 35 years old and tends to wear out toward the end of the season if forced to play heavy minutes. He's averaging around 29 mpg right now, a little too much for coach Rick Adelman's taste. When Webber comes back, look for Adelman to cut Divac's minutes down to between 20 and 25 a game to keep him fresh for a playoff run.

Better off without Jason Williams?

Jason Williams
Point Guard
Memphis Grizzlies
Profile


2003-2004 SEASON STATISTICS
GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
17 10.9 1.4 6.9 .405 .842



Yes: The Grizzlies were 6-8 before Williams injured his back on Nov. 29th. With Williams out, Earl Watson and Mike Miller took over point guard duties and went on a five game winning streak. By the time Williams came back, the Grizzlies had gone 8-2 without him in the lineup. During that stretch, Watson did an incredible job running the point, averaging eight apg, and Miller transformed into a point forward, upping his numbers from 3.2 apg to 7.3 apg during those 10 games. Those numbers aren't the only thing Hubie Brown likes. Watson is a much tougher defender and rebounder than Williams. The Grizzlies showed a big improvement on the defensive end during that 10-game stretch without suffering a major let down in points scored. Racking up a 100 points a game may be the Grizzlies' strength, but the added backcourt toughness Watson brings turns them from an up-and-comer into a playoff contender.

No: Williams wasn't really at fault for any of the Grizzlies' first eight losses and he hit a couple of key fourth-quarter shots that helped Memphis pull out some of their first six wins. While Williams isn't a great defender, he a more proficient scorer, does a better job of getting the Grizzlies out on the break and his assist-to-turnover ratio (4.21) is second best in the NBA. Brown may be better off continuing to rotate the two depending on matchups. When he needs the extra defensive help, Watson gets the call. When he needs a little juice in the offense, Williams runs the show.

Better off without Michael Finley?

Michael Finley
Guard-Forward
Dallas Mavericks
Profile


2003-2004 SEASON STATISTICS
GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
21 17.3 4.8 2.9 .443 .845



Yes: Expendable may be the better word. For the second time in as many years, Mavericks fans wonder aloud why Mark Cuban doesn't trade away Finley and get some low-post help for the team. Last year, it was the play of Nick Van Exel that appeared to make Finley expendable. This year, it's the play of rookie Josh Howard. While Howard isn't the offensive powerhouse that Finley can be, he's younger, more athletic, a better rebounder and a tougher defender. Since Finley went down with a sprained toe on Dec. 10th, Howard is averaging 13 ppg and nine rpg on 45 percent shooting from the field. His defense on Kobe Bryant last week (Bryant went just 4-or-18 from the field) was a big reason the Mavs beat the Lakers in L.A. for the first time in 13 years. With so many players on this team who can score (Dirk Nowitzki, Antoine Walker, Antawn Jamison, Steve Nash) aren't the Mavs better off putting at least one young defender in the lineup -- especially if trading Finley could net the Mavs a veteran big man to do some of the dirty work in the paint?

No: Take a look at the Mavs' record without Finley -- 2-3. Those losses came at the hands of the Celtics, T-Wolves and Clippers. The Mavs gave up an average of 111.3 ppg during those three games. Howard may be a good defender, but his presence isn't enough to slow down the opponents of the Mavs. And don't forget that Finley is a proven all-star while Howard, a rookie, still has a long way to go. Rookies tend to hit the wall late in the season because of the enormous amount of games played. Mark Cuban wants his team in the Finals this year. Having Howard as a support is nice and should lessen the minutes Finley has to play -- keeping him fresh for the playoffs. But come playoff time, who would you rather have on the floor late in the game?

Better off without Antonio McDyess?

Antonio McDyess
Power Forward
New York Knicks
Profile


2003-2004 SEASON STATISTICS
GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
11 10.3 6.9 1.2 .456 .594



Yes: For a full year and half we had to suffer through the almost daily updates in the New York media about McDyess' knee. Now that he's back, what's the big deal? The Knicks are 3-8 since Dice returned. While you can see that the rust is coming off more and more every game, it's also pretty clear that McDyess doesn't have the same explosiveness he had before the injury. His return has also caused a rift between Kurt Thomas, the team's best rebounder, and coach Don Chaney. Chaney benched Thomas for McDyess last week, prompting Thomas to begin talking trade. Would the Knicks be better off trading McDyess now (his $13.5 million come off the books this summer) and trying to get someone like Zydrunas Ilgauskas in return?

No: Give McDyess time. He's getting better and better every game and it's just a matter of time before he starts feeling like his old self. He's led the team in rebounding in three of the last four games and played a season-high 37 minutes versus the Hawks on Saturday. In that game he scored 19 points on Shareef Abdur-Rahim and was as active on the boards (4 offensive rebounds) as he's been all year. The Knicks still have time to turn their season around and giving up on McDyess now would almost guarantee that they'll miss the playoffs for another season.

Better off without Wally Szczerbiak?

Yes: This year's Timberwolves are a chemistry explosion waiting to happen. So far Kevin Garnett, Latrell Sprewell and Sam Cassell have gotten along great. But can that trio really handle the return of Wally and Troy Hudson? Combined, Garnett, Spree and Cassell are averaging a total of 52 shots a game and everyone seems happy. Once Hudson is healthy you can add another eight to 10 shots to that total. Will there be any shots left for Wally? But that's not the biggest issue for Flip Saunders. Garnett doesn't like Wally, and now that he has teammates he knows he can win with, will Garnett go back to freezing out Wally like he did two seasons ago? If Szczerbiak comes back and tries to take over as the Wolves' second option on offense, the friction created could set the whole team up in flames. Now that medical reports suggest that he might be out until the All-Star break, are the Wolves better off trying to trade Wally (it will be difficult because of his base-year status) for another big man given Michael Olowokandi's uncertain health?

No: Personalities aside, the Wolves need Wally. They don't have anyone who can knock down the 3 with an regularity. Cassell is their best 3-point shooter, but he's hitting only 38 percent of his shots from beyond the arc. Sprewell's shooting just 27 percent from 3 this year. Szczerbiak shot 42 percent from 3-point land last year and hit plenty of clutch shots for the Wolves down the stretch. If the T-Wolves really want to get out of the first round this season, they'll need a sharp shooter to break down the steady diet of zone defense they'll see in the playoffs.


Rookie Players of the Week: A few weeks ago we were marveling at how quickly this year's rookie class was maturing. This week, we're no longer questioning whether this is one of the best rookie classes ever. Last week, two rookies, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, weren't just great rookies. They were as good as anyone in the NBA, and at least one of them should walk away with player of the week honors this week.
Here are their stat lines:

LeBron: 4 games, 28 ppg, 6 apg, 51% shooting
Dwyane: 4 games, 27 ppg, 5.5 apg, 56% shooting

The key for both players has been a shift in roles. With Ricky Davis gone, Cavs coach Paul Silas is no longer asking LeBron to fit in. Silas and LeBron's teammates have seen enough to understand that on most nights, he's the best player on the floor. The trade of Davis wasn't just the result of an obvious rift between Silas and Davis. Silas felt LeBron was ready to take over and didn't want him to hesitate just because Davis was pouting. With Davis gone, the transition was easier. LeBron's development since the trade is enough to justify it. I can't name 15 players in the NBA who are better. Can you?

For Wade, Stan Van Gundy's decision to take the pressure off of Wade to run the offense freed him up to do what he does best -- score at will with one of the quickest first steps of anyone in the league. Wade's play has been so solid over the past few weeks that several NBA scouts have started referring to him as a "smarter" Allen Iverson. I'm not sure exactly what that means, but I think it has a lot to do with Wade's shot selection and ability to get his teammates involved while still playing his game.


Sterling cashing in with Brand, Maggette: What a difference a Brand name makes. After years of keeping a death grip on his wallet and going generic at every turn, Clippers Scrooge Donald Sterling finally bit the bullet and spent some money last summer, committing almost $150 million to Elton Brand and Corey Maggette.
Clippers insiders then sat, in fear, waiting to see the results. Sterling made it clear to management that if he spent the money, he better see results. A Brand injury in the first game, coupled with a 6-11 start for the Clips had everyone in L.A. sweating a bit. Not only could the axe fall from Sterling if the team, despite the infusion of cash, under performed. But it also meant that they'd probably be unable to convince Sterling to spend the rest of the money it took to make the Clippers into a contender.

From that perspective, thank the lord for the return of Brand. It took Brand a few games to get his feet under him, but since a Dec. 9th loss to the Kings in Sacramento, the Clippers have been one of the best teams in the NBA. The team is 5-1 since that point with two impressive wins over the Mavericks and victories over the Suns, Hornets and Bucks. During that steak, Brand has been on fire, averaging 19 ppg and 14 rpg.

And for the first time in his career, he's getting help. Maggette continues to turn himself into an all-star, averaging 20.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg and 3.7 apg during the six-game stretch. Quentin Richardson is also blossoming, averaging 16.1 ppg, 6.5 rpg and shooting a sizzling 42 percent from downtown.

The team also feels that it has its center of the future in Chris Kaman, adequate back-ups in Peja Drobnjak and Melvin Ely, and a dangerous sixth man in Chris Wilcox.

While no one in L.A. expects the team to compete for a championship, Sterling has seen enough improvement to seriously consider spending even more money in 2004. There are some who feel that had the Clips persuaded Gilbert Arenas to come to L.A., they'd be one of the best teams in the NBA right now. A quick look at the Clippers' roster shows surprising depth at every position but point guard. So far, second-year guard Marko Jaric has been spotty. He's looked great at times, terrible at others.

If the team can't convince Kobe Bryant to make the leap next summer (it could get as far as $13 million under the cap), look for the Clips to re-sign Richardson and then use some of that left over money to try and outbid the Bulls for the services of Jamal Crawford.



Continued............
:)
 

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