NBA Draft: Looking for the next LeBron
By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Send an Email to Chad Ford Friday, November 14
Updated: November 14
10:24 AM ET
With the NBA season now in full swing, NBA scouts and personnel directors are already shifting their focus to the 2004 draft.
Their challenge? Finding the next LeBron James, Darko Milicic and Carmelo Anthony.
This year, scouts claim that a high school senior, several young international big men and two college standouts (one an incoming freshman) will likely compete for the honor.
While injuries, a strong season and the late discovery of an international sleeper can certainly change this group, the dozen or so NBA scouts and GMs Insider talked to all were in agreement on which prospects had a shot at the No. 1 pick.
There isn't a clear cut No. 1 this year. None of the players listed below will have the marketing impact or media hype of James. But each of them, with patience and a few breaks down the road, has the potential to be an NBA superstar.
I believe it's way too early to start ranking players. With a full season ahead, and with the young age of all but one of the players, there are just too many factors yet to be resolved. For that reason, this time, we're listing the players in alphabetical order.
A breakout season at Duke could make Lou Deng the No. 1 pick.
Luol Deng, SF, Duke
6-8, 220 (College Freshman)
The skinny: Deng's already drawn comparisons to Grant Hill for his versatility, athleticism and basketball IQ. Deng, a native of the Sudan, has a 7-foot wing span and is an off-the-charts athlete. He's an above average passer, shot blocker and rebounder for his size. While scouts wish he had a better perimeter shot, especially from 3-point range, he does just about everything else well. Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski is already touting him as one of the best players in the country and plans to start him right away. If he has a Carmelo Anthony-like season, and ends it with an NCAA Championship, expect the Deng-Anthony comparisons to put him in contention for the No. 1 pick.
Dwight Howard, PF, S.W. Atlanta Christian
(Georgia) 6-10, 230, 19.3 ppg, 15.3 rpg (High School Senior)
The skinny: Right now Howard is the consensus No. 1 player in the draft this year. The good news is that scouts think Howard is one of the most well-rounded big men to come up in the last couple of years. The bad news is that he reminds many scouts of Kwame Brown. Howard has athleticism, a soft shooting touch, strong ball handling skills and the ability to play multiple positions on the floor. However, he lacks the toughness and strength to compete in the NBA right away. Teams say he's a safer bet than Kwame because of his work ethic and his competitiveness on the floor, but others wonder just how long it will take for him to develop. If the consensus is three or more years, he'll start slipping.
Emeka Okafor, PF, UConn
6-9, 240, 15.9 ppg, 11.2 rpg, 4.7 bpg (College Junior)
The skinny: Okafor is the best big man in college hoops. He's a tenacious rebounder, shot blocker and defender and has drawn comparisons from some scouts to Alonzo Mourning. His defense is still ahead of his offensive game at this point, but last season he really made progress on his back-to-the-basket moves. Scouts love his intelligence and his work ethic. He's a coach's dream. The only real question teams have are about his size. If he were a few inches taller, he'd be the consensus No. 1 pick. But at 6-9, he'll have to make the transition to power forward in the pros. Okafor has two years of college eligibility left, but most scouts believe that he will declare for the draft this year.
Kosta Perovic, PF/C, Partizan (Serbia)
7-2, 240, (19-years-old)
The skinny: Perovic is a long, lean shot blocker with good shooting range. Currently he's playing behind former Nets first-round pick Nenad Krstic. However, Perovic got an early season break when Krstic went down with an injury, and scouts claim that he's excellent. He's still very thin to play in the league right now, but he's the right height and is very skilled.
Pavel Podkolzine, C, Metis Varese (Italy)
7-5, 300, (19-years-old)
The skinny: Podkolzine took the NBA by storm last spring when he put on a jaw dropping workout in Chicago while GMs were attending the NBA pre-draft camp. A pituitary condition discovered by NBA doctors convinced Pavel to pull out of the draft and take care of the problem before making himself available. Podkolzine's agent, Justin Zanick, told Insider that the problem has been treated with medication and that Pavel's hormone levels are back to normal. Podkolzine has good agility and a soft shooting touch for someone his size. He's still very, very raw, but another season playing in Varese should make him a better prospect than he was last season.
Predrag Samardzski, C, Partizan (Serbia)
7-1, 260, (17-years-old)
The skinny: Samardzski is the dark horse to grab the No. 1 pick. Currently, he's playing for Partizan's junior team and hasn't been scouted heavily by NBA GMs. However, the few who have caught a glimpse agree that he's the most talented prospect in Europe. The native of Macedonia does it all. He has polished moves in the paint and can step out and hit the 3. He's also got a wide frame, which will help his development in the pros. He may be another year or two away, but now that he's hired Darko Milicic's agent, Marc Cornstein, don't be surprised if he decides to come out this year. He's got the potential to be a superstar.
Tiago Splitter, PF, Tau Vitoria (Spain)
7-0, 240 (18-years-old)
The skinny: The native of Brazil had his coming out party against the Team USA in the Olympic Qualifying tournament. Splitter had just six points and three rebounds, but he didn't look out of place guarding the likes of Tim Duncan and Elton Brand. Splitter would go on to have several great games in the tournament, all in front of a large contingent of NBA scouts and GMs. Like Darko Milicic, Splitter is very physical on both ends of the floor. He plays with an intensity that has scouts drooling. He's got a pretty solid body and does a better job than average with his back to the basket. He doesn't have the perimeter skills of a Nowitzki, but he can shoot the ball and put it on the floor.
Draft Notes
ESPN may be televising his games, but NBA scouts are stumbling over themselves to get off the Sebastian Telfair bandwagon.
Telfair has a big marketing machine behind him, but at just 6-feet tall, teams feel like he's heavily overestimating his chances in the NBA.
One scout claimed that Telfair was "all flash, very little substance." Another called him a "circus midget."
Telfair has committed to Louisville, and most scouts agree he'll need at least two to three years there before even thinking about the draft.
"You have to be very, very special to make the leap from high school to the pros if you're under 6-10," one scout said. "Telfair plays with a flair that gets fans excited, but rarely does anything for scouts. Everyone hopes he makes the right decision and goes to college. He doesn't want to end up like Lenny Cooke."
Dwight Howard may be the American high school buzz player, but look out for Russian sensation Ivan Chiriaev. Insider first reported on Chiriaev in July and since then he's gone from an unknown into one of the early buzz players in the draft.
For those of you who missed the report in July, Chiriaev is playing high school ball in Ontario, Canada, and several international scouts who saw him play this summer claim he's the closest thing to Dirk Nowitzki since Dirk himself.
Chiriaev is a legit 7-footer with handles like a point guard. He's a top-notch athlete with great quickness for his size. He's one of those players who many scouts feel could be a four or five position player in the pros.
"He's for real," one NBA scout told Insider a few weeks ago. "Everyone was praying for weeks that the cat wouldn't get out of the bag, but it has."
While scouts claim that's it's still to early to project where he could go in the draft, one scout says he's a lock for the lottery.
"The only real question with him is the competition he plays against," the scout said. "Canadian high school basketball isn't a hot bed for talent. But once he gets into private workouts and teams see what he can do for his size, I'd be shocked if he wasn't a top-five pick. He'll be a project, but his upside it tremendous."
Another buzz name to watch is Australian big man Andrew Bogut. Bogut won MVP honors at the 2003 FIBA Junior World Championships in Greece in July. He averaged 26.3 points, 17.0 rebounds 2.5 assists and 1.5 blocked shots per game while shooting 61 percent from the field.
Bogut will be a freshman at the University of Utah this season and many scouts expect him to be one and done. Bogut turned down millions from a team in Croatia to play in the U.S. But with all of the attention, and with all of his skills, scouts expect him to make the leap to the NBA next season if he can duplicate what he did in Greece.
Bogut is another sharp shooter who runs the floor well and is a solid rebounder and shot blocker. He needs to get stronger physically, but most scouts think his frame is big enough to add on the extra muscle.
Around the League
Is Tracy McGrady trying to get Doc Rivers fired? That's the word from two league sources close to Magic players who claim that McGrady no longer gets along with Rivers and wants a change.
Tracy McGrady
Shooting Guard
Orlando Magic
Profile
2003-2004 SEASON STATISTICS
GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
8 23.3 5.9 5.5 .380 .843
While no one is claiming that McGrady has asked for Rivers to be fired (he doesn't want to fall into the same trap Penny Hardaway did in Orlando), if you listen closely to McGrady's comments in the media, you'll be able to pick up on his distaste for Rivers. Last week McGrady complained that he and the rest of the team were unprepared to play against zone defenses. His comments about wanting to call it quits and his dispassionate play at the start of the season were also meant to convey to management that he could no longer handle the status quo.
On Thursday, McGrady stepped up the rhetoric a bit, claiming it was time for a change.
"When you're not winning, changes have to be made," McGrady told Florida Today. "I don't see a light right now; really, I can't even see the end of the tunnel."
"Who knows what's going to happen? I'll leave that up to the management," McGrady said. "Right now, I just want to go out and compete with these guys. This is who we are. These are the coaches we have to play under and these are our players. Whatever happens, it's not up to me. It's up to management if they want to make changes. I'm out of it. I'm a player."
Rivers said he's willing to take the fall for the team. "It should be, it really should be," Rivers said when asked if his job security was in question. "Someone is going to take the blame, obviously. And if we keep losing, it'll be me, the players or management. It could be anybody. That's just the way business is and the way sports are. I understood that when I got into this. But I believe that we'll turn this around."
COO John Weisbrod claimed on Thursday that he hasn't considered firing Rivers or Gabriel . . yet.
"I'm not speaking along those lines or thinking along those lines," Weisbrod said. "I know it's the unavoidable question because it happens to be on everyone's lips and that's the culture of sports. That's the way everyone thinks when a team gets in these circumstances. But now I'm focused on joining hands with Gabe and Doc and trying to fight out of this."
"Anytime you are 1-7, you need something to change," Weisbrod said. "I'm hopeful that, despite how discouraging things may seem now, we can rejuvenate ourselves and get over the slump."
If things continue, Weisbrod will have no choice but to make a move. It will be one that probably works for both McGrady and Rivers. McGrady is frustrated with how the team has developed. He wants to win and there's a feeling in Orlando that the team has tuned Rivers out. Rivers has eyed several other high-profile jobs the past few summers. He has never wanted to quit on the Magic, however. If they let him go, he'll be free to grab another job. (The Hawks' and Knicks' jobs could become available right away if Rivers is fired.)
However, it's a no-win situation for Gabriel. Who is he going to replace Rivers with? The only high-profile coaching candidate out there is George Karl, and most don't believe he'd be a good fit. It's doubtful that an assistant coach is going to do any better than Rivers. If Rivers gets hired somewhere else, turns a team around and the Magic continue to struggle, Gabriel may be the next go.
----------------------------------------
By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Send an Email to Chad Ford Friday, November 14
Updated: November 14
10:24 AM ET
With the NBA season now in full swing, NBA scouts and personnel directors are already shifting their focus to the 2004 draft.
Their challenge? Finding the next LeBron James, Darko Milicic and Carmelo Anthony.
This year, scouts claim that a high school senior, several young international big men and two college standouts (one an incoming freshman) will likely compete for the honor.
While injuries, a strong season and the late discovery of an international sleeper can certainly change this group, the dozen or so NBA scouts and GMs Insider talked to all were in agreement on which prospects had a shot at the No. 1 pick.
There isn't a clear cut No. 1 this year. None of the players listed below will have the marketing impact or media hype of James. But each of them, with patience and a few breaks down the road, has the potential to be an NBA superstar.
I believe it's way too early to start ranking players. With a full season ahead, and with the young age of all but one of the players, there are just too many factors yet to be resolved. For that reason, this time, we're listing the players in alphabetical order.
A breakout season at Duke could make Lou Deng the No. 1 pick.
Luol Deng, SF, Duke
6-8, 220 (College Freshman)
The skinny: Deng's already drawn comparisons to Grant Hill for his versatility, athleticism and basketball IQ. Deng, a native of the Sudan, has a 7-foot wing span and is an off-the-charts athlete. He's an above average passer, shot blocker and rebounder for his size. While scouts wish he had a better perimeter shot, especially from 3-point range, he does just about everything else well. Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski is already touting him as one of the best players in the country and plans to start him right away. If he has a Carmelo Anthony-like season, and ends it with an NCAA Championship, expect the Deng-Anthony comparisons to put him in contention for the No. 1 pick.
Dwight Howard, PF, S.W. Atlanta Christian
(Georgia) 6-10, 230, 19.3 ppg, 15.3 rpg (High School Senior)
The skinny: Right now Howard is the consensus No. 1 player in the draft this year. The good news is that scouts think Howard is one of the most well-rounded big men to come up in the last couple of years. The bad news is that he reminds many scouts of Kwame Brown. Howard has athleticism, a soft shooting touch, strong ball handling skills and the ability to play multiple positions on the floor. However, he lacks the toughness and strength to compete in the NBA right away. Teams say he's a safer bet than Kwame because of his work ethic and his competitiveness on the floor, but others wonder just how long it will take for him to develop. If the consensus is three or more years, he'll start slipping.
Emeka Okafor, PF, UConn
6-9, 240, 15.9 ppg, 11.2 rpg, 4.7 bpg (College Junior)
The skinny: Okafor is the best big man in college hoops. He's a tenacious rebounder, shot blocker and defender and has drawn comparisons from some scouts to Alonzo Mourning. His defense is still ahead of his offensive game at this point, but last season he really made progress on his back-to-the-basket moves. Scouts love his intelligence and his work ethic. He's a coach's dream. The only real question teams have are about his size. If he were a few inches taller, he'd be the consensus No. 1 pick. But at 6-9, he'll have to make the transition to power forward in the pros. Okafor has two years of college eligibility left, but most scouts believe that he will declare for the draft this year.
Kosta Perovic, PF/C, Partizan (Serbia)
7-2, 240, (19-years-old)
The skinny: Perovic is a long, lean shot blocker with good shooting range. Currently he's playing behind former Nets first-round pick Nenad Krstic. However, Perovic got an early season break when Krstic went down with an injury, and scouts claim that he's excellent. He's still very thin to play in the league right now, but he's the right height and is very skilled.
Pavel Podkolzine, C, Metis Varese (Italy)
7-5, 300, (19-years-old)
The skinny: Podkolzine took the NBA by storm last spring when he put on a jaw dropping workout in Chicago while GMs were attending the NBA pre-draft camp. A pituitary condition discovered by NBA doctors convinced Pavel to pull out of the draft and take care of the problem before making himself available. Podkolzine's agent, Justin Zanick, told Insider that the problem has been treated with medication and that Pavel's hormone levels are back to normal. Podkolzine has good agility and a soft shooting touch for someone his size. He's still very, very raw, but another season playing in Varese should make him a better prospect than he was last season.
Predrag Samardzski, C, Partizan (Serbia)
7-1, 260, (17-years-old)
The skinny: Samardzski is the dark horse to grab the No. 1 pick. Currently, he's playing for Partizan's junior team and hasn't been scouted heavily by NBA GMs. However, the few who have caught a glimpse agree that he's the most talented prospect in Europe. The native of Macedonia does it all. He has polished moves in the paint and can step out and hit the 3. He's also got a wide frame, which will help his development in the pros. He may be another year or two away, but now that he's hired Darko Milicic's agent, Marc Cornstein, don't be surprised if he decides to come out this year. He's got the potential to be a superstar.
Tiago Splitter, PF, Tau Vitoria (Spain)
7-0, 240 (18-years-old)
The skinny: The native of Brazil had his coming out party against the Team USA in the Olympic Qualifying tournament. Splitter had just six points and three rebounds, but he didn't look out of place guarding the likes of Tim Duncan and Elton Brand. Splitter would go on to have several great games in the tournament, all in front of a large contingent of NBA scouts and GMs. Like Darko Milicic, Splitter is very physical on both ends of the floor. He plays with an intensity that has scouts drooling. He's got a pretty solid body and does a better job than average with his back to the basket. He doesn't have the perimeter skills of a Nowitzki, but he can shoot the ball and put it on the floor.
Draft Notes
ESPN may be televising his games, but NBA scouts are stumbling over themselves to get off the Sebastian Telfair bandwagon.
Telfair has a big marketing machine behind him, but at just 6-feet tall, teams feel like he's heavily overestimating his chances in the NBA.
One scout claimed that Telfair was "all flash, very little substance." Another called him a "circus midget."
Telfair has committed to Louisville, and most scouts agree he'll need at least two to three years there before even thinking about the draft.
"You have to be very, very special to make the leap from high school to the pros if you're under 6-10," one scout said. "Telfair plays with a flair that gets fans excited, but rarely does anything for scouts. Everyone hopes he makes the right decision and goes to college. He doesn't want to end up like Lenny Cooke."
Dwight Howard may be the American high school buzz player, but look out for Russian sensation Ivan Chiriaev. Insider first reported on Chiriaev in July and since then he's gone from an unknown into one of the early buzz players in the draft.
For those of you who missed the report in July, Chiriaev is playing high school ball in Ontario, Canada, and several international scouts who saw him play this summer claim he's the closest thing to Dirk Nowitzki since Dirk himself.
Chiriaev is a legit 7-footer with handles like a point guard. He's a top-notch athlete with great quickness for his size. He's one of those players who many scouts feel could be a four or five position player in the pros.
"He's for real," one NBA scout told Insider a few weeks ago. "Everyone was praying for weeks that the cat wouldn't get out of the bag, but it has."
While scouts claim that's it's still to early to project where he could go in the draft, one scout says he's a lock for the lottery.
"The only real question with him is the competition he plays against," the scout said. "Canadian high school basketball isn't a hot bed for talent. But once he gets into private workouts and teams see what he can do for his size, I'd be shocked if he wasn't a top-five pick. He'll be a project, but his upside it tremendous."
Another buzz name to watch is Australian big man Andrew Bogut. Bogut won MVP honors at the 2003 FIBA Junior World Championships in Greece in July. He averaged 26.3 points, 17.0 rebounds 2.5 assists and 1.5 blocked shots per game while shooting 61 percent from the field.
Bogut will be a freshman at the University of Utah this season and many scouts expect him to be one and done. Bogut turned down millions from a team in Croatia to play in the U.S. But with all of the attention, and with all of his skills, scouts expect him to make the leap to the NBA next season if he can duplicate what he did in Greece.
Bogut is another sharp shooter who runs the floor well and is a solid rebounder and shot blocker. He needs to get stronger physically, but most scouts think his frame is big enough to add on the extra muscle.
Around the League
Is Tracy McGrady trying to get Doc Rivers fired? That's the word from two league sources close to Magic players who claim that McGrady no longer gets along with Rivers and wants a change.
Tracy McGrady
Shooting Guard
Orlando Magic
Profile
2003-2004 SEASON STATISTICS
GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
8 23.3 5.9 5.5 .380 .843
While no one is claiming that McGrady has asked for Rivers to be fired (he doesn't want to fall into the same trap Penny Hardaway did in Orlando), if you listen closely to McGrady's comments in the media, you'll be able to pick up on his distaste for Rivers. Last week McGrady complained that he and the rest of the team were unprepared to play against zone defenses. His comments about wanting to call it quits and his dispassionate play at the start of the season were also meant to convey to management that he could no longer handle the status quo.
On Thursday, McGrady stepped up the rhetoric a bit, claiming it was time for a change.
"When you're not winning, changes have to be made," McGrady told Florida Today. "I don't see a light right now; really, I can't even see the end of the tunnel."
"Who knows what's going to happen? I'll leave that up to the management," McGrady said. "Right now, I just want to go out and compete with these guys. This is who we are. These are the coaches we have to play under and these are our players. Whatever happens, it's not up to me. It's up to management if they want to make changes. I'm out of it. I'm a player."
Rivers said he's willing to take the fall for the team. "It should be, it really should be," Rivers said when asked if his job security was in question. "Someone is going to take the blame, obviously. And if we keep losing, it'll be me, the players or management. It could be anybody. That's just the way business is and the way sports are. I understood that when I got into this. But I believe that we'll turn this around."
COO John Weisbrod claimed on Thursday that he hasn't considered firing Rivers or Gabriel . . yet.
"I'm not speaking along those lines or thinking along those lines," Weisbrod said. "I know it's the unavoidable question because it happens to be on everyone's lips and that's the culture of sports. That's the way everyone thinks when a team gets in these circumstances. But now I'm focused on joining hands with Gabe and Doc and trying to fight out of this."
"Anytime you are 1-7, you need something to change," Weisbrod said. "I'm hopeful that, despite how discouraging things may seem now, we can rejuvenate ourselves and get over the slump."
If things continue, Weisbrod will have no choice but to make a move. It will be one that probably works for both McGrady and Rivers. McGrady is frustrated with how the team has developed. He wants to win and there's a feeling in Orlando that the team has tuned Rivers out. Rivers has eyed several other high-profile jobs the past few summers. He has never wanted to quit on the Magic, however. If they let him go, he'll be free to grab another job. (The Hawks' and Knicks' jobs could become available right away if Rivers is fired.)
However, it's a no-win situation for Gabriel. Who is he going to replace Rivers with? The only high-profile coaching candidate out there is George Karl, and most don't believe he'd be a good fit. It's doubtful that an assistant coach is going to do any better than Rivers. If Rivers gets hired somewhere else, turns a team around and the Magic continue to struggle, Gabriel may be the next go.
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