Breaking down the Eastern Conference
By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Send an Email to Chad Ford Monday, October 27
Want to play Fantasy Basketball with NBA Insider Chad Ford? Click here.
Before we begin talking about the real NBA season tomorrow, I've been informed by my editors that we must give at least a token acknowledgement to the NBA's fledgling minor league -- the Eastern Conference.
NBA commish David Stern is still insisting that the 15 teams that make up the East be allowed to compete for the right to get trampled on by the best team in the West in May. Apparently, he still waxes nostalgic for those Harlem Globetrotter-Washington Generals contests of yesteryear.
The exodus of top-level talent to the West has been going on for the past six or seven years and it continued to get worse this summer. After the Celtics shipped another all-star, Antoine Walker, westward, one Western Conference official actually broke down on the phone when talking about the disparity.
"This is just ridiculous," he said. "The gap is growing and growing. I could make an argument that every team in the West -- including Utah -- could be a playoff team in the East. It's troublesome."
Stern isn't worried. Calls to reseed the playoffs 1-16 irrespective of conference have fallen on deaf ears. When the Board of Governors met recently to realign the league, it actually made the West stronger by adding the Hornets to the West and giving the East an expansion team to beat up on.
Those who've been in the league for a while say that perspective is in order.
"These things are cyclical," Pacers president Donnie Walsh told Insider. "When the Bulls were dominating, GMs in the East were crying the same thing about the West. Shifts happen. Eventually, free agents who are hungry for a title will look at the West and decide to move East to have a better shot at a title."
Hopefully, it comes sooner than later. There were tense moments this summer when it looked like the East's best player, Jason Kidd, was bolting to the Spurs. Thankfully, it never happened.
The East still has the league's best point guard in Kidd. The Magic's Tracy McGrady is the NBA's top small forward. The Pistons have the reigning defensive player of the year in Ben Wallace. And the Cavs just picked up some fella named LeBron James.
But it really is pretty ugly. The Nets and Pistons are the cream of the crop. Both would be playoff contenders in the West. The Hornets and Pacers are just a tick below. The Magic and Sixers should be solid enough to lock up a playoff spot.
Everyone else? Forget about it. How much parity is there in the rest of the East? The Bulls, who won just 30 games last season, could be as high as a seven seed in the playoffs this season without making one major offseason acquisition.
And as many as six other teams in the East appear to have as a good of a shot at those seventh and eighth seeds as anyone else.
Welcome to Leastern Conference. It's going to be ugly.
1. New Jersey Nets
Projected Record: 54-28
2003 Record: 49-33 (No. 2)
There's no reason to believe that the Nets won't roll to a third straight trip to the Finals. Kidd is still the best point guard in the league. Kenyon Martin and Richard Jefferson seem to take another step each year. And the team went out and added the best center in the Eastern Conference in Alonzo Mourning. If Mourning is healthy all season, the Nets could very well do better than the 54 wins we predicted here. If he suffers another major setback, the Nets will be a little thin up front and may fall a little short. The other big question hovering over the Nets this season? Can Byron Scott really coach? Now that Eddie Jordan is gone, Scott will have to prove himself on his own.
2. Detroit Pistons
Projected Record: 52-30
2003 Record: 50-32 (No. 1)
This year's Pistons are different, but are they improved? Joe Dumars swapped out Cliff Robinson, Michael Curry, Jon Barry and Rick Carlisle for Elden Campbell, Darko Milicic, Bob Sura and Larry Brown. You can argue that each is an upgrade in his own right, but will all of the improved parts add up to an improved product? The Pistons had incredible chemistry on the court last season. If Brown can juice the offense without sacrificing the tough defense, this could be the year the Pistons knock the Nets off their throne.
3. New Orleans Hornets
Projected Record: 50-32
2003 Record: 47-35 (No. 5)
Injuries kept a talented Hornets squad from realizing its potential last season. If both Baron Davis and Jamal Mashburn can stay healthy, just how much better can they be? Jamaal Magloire continues to improve, P. J. Brown is a rock and new addition Darrell Armstrong is the shot of a adrenaline this team needs. The wild card is Tim Floyd. If the new motion offense he's installing makes things easier on Davis and Mashburn, he's going to be a hit in New Orleans. If that happens, the Hornets will be right there with the Pistons and Nets in the East.
4. Indiana Pacers
Projected Record: 48-34
2003 Record: 48-34 (No. 3)
After watching Rick Carlisle work his magic in Detroit the past two seasons, you wonder if he alone will be the guy who can awake these young Pacers from a three-year slumber. The team expects improvements from young players like Ron Artest, Al Harrington, Jonathan Bender and Jamaal Tinsley. However, the team lost some talent (Brad Miller, Ron Mercer) this summer in an attempt to keep away from the luxury-tax threshold. Will the yin and yang of the offseason ultimately balance itself out?
5. Orlando Magic
Projected Record: 44-38
2003 Record: 42-40 (No. 7)
Juwan Howard is a nice addition to the team, but he's not enough to put them over the top. The Magic needed a dominant big man to take some pressure of T-Mac on the perimeter. They didn't get him. So . . . just like the past few season, the pressure still lies firmly on T-Mac's back. If he's healthy, T-Mac alone will get the Magic 42 wins in the East. If Howard, Drew Gooden and Gordan Giricek all step up, a few more wins will come. But without a center or a real point guard, it's going to take some Magic for Orlando to get out of the first round of the playoffs.
6. Philadelphia Sixers
Projected Record: 43-39
2003 Record: 48-34 (No. 4)
This all depends on what you think of Glenn Robinson. If you still believe that the Big Dog is one of the most unstoppable small forwards in the league, then they should be much better than I'm giving them credit for. If you believe, as George Karl and Terry Stotts did, that you can't win with the Big Dog on the floor, then Robinson will put up 18 points a night and point fingers after the game. The wild card in Philly is big man Marc Jackson. He's looked solid in the preseason and could answer some of Philly's woes in the paint if he returns to his rookie season form.
7. Chicago Bulls
Projected Record: 42-40
2003 Record: 30-52 (No. 12)
This is a pretty big stretch, but there isn't another team left in the East that I like any better. The Bulls are talented, deep and have the mixture of youth and experience that it takes to make this kind of run. While the 12-game increase seems like a lot for any team, the Bulls are capable. If they can win just 10 road games this year, that will be a plus-seven increase on the wins. With Jamal Crawford and Eddy Curry both breaking out this season, that should give them a couple more as well. And the veteran leadership of Scottie Pippen on the floor in tight games should help them improve on their 1-8 record in overtime this year. Put it all together and the Bulls, barring any more major injuries, will be back in the playoffs after a serious draught. Is it just a coincidence it will be the first season that Jerry Krause is no longer with the team?
8. Boston Celtics
Projected Record: 40-42
2003 Record: 44-38 (No. 6)
Danny Ainge felt that the team wasn't going to win it all with Antoine Walker, so he decided to dump him now and jump start the rebuilding process. The problem is, the Celtics aren't going to win it all with Raef LaFrentz and Vin Baker either. How big a step did the Celtics take back? It all depends on the play of Baker. If he can give the team 12 and nine every night, the playoffs aren't out of the question. If he bombs again, the Celtics could be in a free fall all season.
9. Washington Wizards
Projected Record: 38-44
2003 Record: 37-45 (No. 9)
The Wizards lost Michael Jordan and gained Gilbert Arenas. As much as I love Jordan, I'd take that swap any day. Without Jordan glaring at the young kids, and with a new, player friendly coach on the bench, the Wizards may finally be able to shake the monkey off their back and just go out an play. The Washington backcourt is stacked, meaning that it will be the play of the frontcourt -- Kwame Brown in particular -- that will be the difference between a shot at the playoffs and more time in lottery purgatory. If Kwame breaks out, the Wizards will beat out the Celtics for that eighth playoff spot.
10. Toronto Raptors
Projected Record: 34-48
2003 Record: 24-58 (No. 14)
If Vince Carter stays healthy all season. . .If Antonio Davis shoots more than 40 percent from the field. . . If Chris Bosh is in the running for rookie of the year. . . If Michael Curry and Kevin O'Neill convince this team to play defense . . . the Raptors could make a return to the playoffs. But that is a lot of ifs.
11. Miami Heat
Projected Record: 31-51
2001 Record: 25-57 (No. 13)
I had them rated a little higher, but with the loss of Pat Riley, I think the Heat will stumble out of the gates as they adapt to a new coach and a new way of doing things. I think that the additions of Lamar Odom and Dwyane Wade this summer were good ones. But will the distraction of losing Riley set both of them back? The loss of Caron Butler at the start of the season isn't helping either.
12. New York Knicks
Projected Record: 30-52
2003 Record: 37-45 (No. 10)
From everything I've read and heard, Antonio McDyess is done. No, I'm not claiming that you won't see him on the floor this season. At some point, McDyess will return to the Knicks. What I'm talking about is McDyess as we know him. Missing two years and having multiple knee surgeries takes away the explosiveness that defined is career. If McDyess was healthy and ready to play at the same level he did pre-injury, the Knicks would be right there battling for an eighth seed. Without him, the combo of Charlie Ward, Allan Houston, Keith Van Horn, Kurt Thomas and Dikembe Mutombo just doesn't do it for me.
13. Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected Record: 27-55
2002 Record: 17-65 (No. 15)
Members of the LeBron cult, let's get back to reality for just a second. He's going to be good. Sooner or later it's going to happen. The Cavs, on the other hand, still have a long way to go. They are oozing with young talent, but it's hard to believe that one kid, straight out of high school, is going to give his team the extra 25 wins it will need this season to make the playoffs. A 10-game improvement in the NBA is always cause to celebrate. With Paul Silas at the helm and James running the point, I think the Cavs are heading in the right direction. After years of misery, that should be enough to make Cavs fans feel warm and fuzzy inside.
14. Atlanta Hawks
Projected Record: 23-59
2002 Record: 35-47 (No. 11)
It's time to blow this team up and start over again. Shareef Abdur-Rahim and Jason Terry are good players, but neither guy is someone you build around. Theo Ratliff is shaky, Stephen Jackson is going to really miss playing with Tim Duncan, and the Hawks' young players are still a year or two away.
15. Milwaukee Bucks
Projected Record: 19-63
2002 Record: 42-40 (No. 8)
I could be very wrong about the Bucks. They have a lot of young, athletic players who have some experience in the league. The problem is, with the exception of Michael Redd, none have proved they have what it takes to lead a team to victory. Tim Thomas, Desmond Mason, Dan Gadzuric, Marcus Haislip and rookie T. J. Ford are all nice pieces. I just think it will take them a year or two to find their groove.
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By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Send an Email to Chad Ford Monday, October 27
Want to play Fantasy Basketball with NBA Insider Chad Ford? Click here.
Before we begin talking about the real NBA season tomorrow, I've been informed by my editors that we must give at least a token acknowledgement to the NBA's fledgling minor league -- the Eastern Conference.
NBA commish David Stern is still insisting that the 15 teams that make up the East be allowed to compete for the right to get trampled on by the best team in the West in May. Apparently, he still waxes nostalgic for those Harlem Globetrotter-Washington Generals contests of yesteryear.
The exodus of top-level talent to the West has been going on for the past six or seven years and it continued to get worse this summer. After the Celtics shipped another all-star, Antoine Walker, westward, one Western Conference official actually broke down on the phone when talking about the disparity.
"This is just ridiculous," he said. "The gap is growing and growing. I could make an argument that every team in the West -- including Utah -- could be a playoff team in the East. It's troublesome."
Stern isn't worried. Calls to reseed the playoffs 1-16 irrespective of conference have fallen on deaf ears. When the Board of Governors met recently to realign the league, it actually made the West stronger by adding the Hornets to the West and giving the East an expansion team to beat up on.
Those who've been in the league for a while say that perspective is in order.
"These things are cyclical," Pacers president Donnie Walsh told Insider. "When the Bulls were dominating, GMs in the East were crying the same thing about the West. Shifts happen. Eventually, free agents who are hungry for a title will look at the West and decide to move East to have a better shot at a title."
Hopefully, it comes sooner than later. There were tense moments this summer when it looked like the East's best player, Jason Kidd, was bolting to the Spurs. Thankfully, it never happened.
The East still has the league's best point guard in Kidd. The Magic's Tracy McGrady is the NBA's top small forward. The Pistons have the reigning defensive player of the year in Ben Wallace. And the Cavs just picked up some fella named LeBron James.
But it really is pretty ugly. The Nets and Pistons are the cream of the crop. Both would be playoff contenders in the West. The Hornets and Pacers are just a tick below. The Magic and Sixers should be solid enough to lock up a playoff spot.
Everyone else? Forget about it. How much parity is there in the rest of the East? The Bulls, who won just 30 games last season, could be as high as a seven seed in the playoffs this season without making one major offseason acquisition.
And as many as six other teams in the East appear to have as a good of a shot at those seventh and eighth seeds as anyone else.
Welcome to Leastern Conference. It's going to be ugly.
1. New Jersey Nets
Projected Record: 54-28
2003 Record: 49-33 (No. 2)
There's no reason to believe that the Nets won't roll to a third straight trip to the Finals. Kidd is still the best point guard in the league. Kenyon Martin and Richard Jefferson seem to take another step each year. And the team went out and added the best center in the Eastern Conference in Alonzo Mourning. If Mourning is healthy all season, the Nets could very well do better than the 54 wins we predicted here. If he suffers another major setback, the Nets will be a little thin up front and may fall a little short. The other big question hovering over the Nets this season? Can Byron Scott really coach? Now that Eddie Jordan is gone, Scott will have to prove himself on his own.
2. Detroit Pistons
Projected Record: 52-30
2003 Record: 50-32 (No. 1)
This year's Pistons are different, but are they improved? Joe Dumars swapped out Cliff Robinson, Michael Curry, Jon Barry and Rick Carlisle for Elden Campbell, Darko Milicic, Bob Sura and Larry Brown. You can argue that each is an upgrade in his own right, but will all of the improved parts add up to an improved product? The Pistons had incredible chemistry on the court last season. If Brown can juice the offense without sacrificing the tough defense, this could be the year the Pistons knock the Nets off their throne.
3. New Orleans Hornets
Projected Record: 50-32
2003 Record: 47-35 (No. 5)
Injuries kept a talented Hornets squad from realizing its potential last season. If both Baron Davis and Jamal Mashburn can stay healthy, just how much better can they be? Jamaal Magloire continues to improve, P. J. Brown is a rock and new addition Darrell Armstrong is the shot of a adrenaline this team needs. The wild card is Tim Floyd. If the new motion offense he's installing makes things easier on Davis and Mashburn, he's going to be a hit in New Orleans. If that happens, the Hornets will be right there with the Pistons and Nets in the East.
4. Indiana Pacers
Projected Record: 48-34
2003 Record: 48-34 (No. 3)
After watching Rick Carlisle work his magic in Detroit the past two seasons, you wonder if he alone will be the guy who can awake these young Pacers from a three-year slumber. The team expects improvements from young players like Ron Artest, Al Harrington, Jonathan Bender and Jamaal Tinsley. However, the team lost some talent (Brad Miller, Ron Mercer) this summer in an attempt to keep away from the luxury-tax threshold. Will the yin and yang of the offseason ultimately balance itself out?
5. Orlando Magic
Projected Record: 44-38
2003 Record: 42-40 (No. 7)
Juwan Howard is a nice addition to the team, but he's not enough to put them over the top. The Magic needed a dominant big man to take some pressure of T-Mac on the perimeter. They didn't get him. So . . . just like the past few season, the pressure still lies firmly on T-Mac's back. If he's healthy, T-Mac alone will get the Magic 42 wins in the East. If Howard, Drew Gooden and Gordan Giricek all step up, a few more wins will come. But without a center or a real point guard, it's going to take some Magic for Orlando to get out of the first round of the playoffs.
6. Philadelphia Sixers
Projected Record: 43-39
2003 Record: 48-34 (No. 4)
This all depends on what you think of Glenn Robinson. If you still believe that the Big Dog is one of the most unstoppable small forwards in the league, then they should be much better than I'm giving them credit for. If you believe, as George Karl and Terry Stotts did, that you can't win with the Big Dog on the floor, then Robinson will put up 18 points a night and point fingers after the game. The wild card in Philly is big man Marc Jackson. He's looked solid in the preseason and could answer some of Philly's woes in the paint if he returns to his rookie season form.
7. Chicago Bulls
Projected Record: 42-40
2003 Record: 30-52 (No. 12)
This is a pretty big stretch, but there isn't another team left in the East that I like any better. The Bulls are talented, deep and have the mixture of youth and experience that it takes to make this kind of run. While the 12-game increase seems like a lot for any team, the Bulls are capable. If they can win just 10 road games this year, that will be a plus-seven increase on the wins. With Jamal Crawford and Eddy Curry both breaking out this season, that should give them a couple more as well. And the veteran leadership of Scottie Pippen on the floor in tight games should help them improve on their 1-8 record in overtime this year. Put it all together and the Bulls, barring any more major injuries, will be back in the playoffs after a serious draught. Is it just a coincidence it will be the first season that Jerry Krause is no longer with the team?
8. Boston Celtics
Projected Record: 40-42
2003 Record: 44-38 (No. 6)
Danny Ainge felt that the team wasn't going to win it all with Antoine Walker, so he decided to dump him now and jump start the rebuilding process. The problem is, the Celtics aren't going to win it all with Raef LaFrentz and Vin Baker either. How big a step did the Celtics take back? It all depends on the play of Baker. If he can give the team 12 and nine every night, the playoffs aren't out of the question. If he bombs again, the Celtics could be in a free fall all season.
9. Washington Wizards
Projected Record: 38-44
2003 Record: 37-45 (No. 9)
The Wizards lost Michael Jordan and gained Gilbert Arenas. As much as I love Jordan, I'd take that swap any day. Without Jordan glaring at the young kids, and with a new, player friendly coach on the bench, the Wizards may finally be able to shake the monkey off their back and just go out an play. The Washington backcourt is stacked, meaning that it will be the play of the frontcourt -- Kwame Brown in particular -- that will be the difference between a shot at the playoffs and more time in lottery purgatory. If Kwame breaks out, the Wizards will beat out the Celtics for that eighth playoff spot.
10. Toronto Raptors
Projected Record: 34-48
2003 Record: 24-58 (No. 14)
If Vince Carter stays healthy all season. . .If Antonio Davis shoots more than 40 percent from the field. . . If Chris Bosh is in the running for rookie of the year. . . If Michael Curry and Kevin O'Neill convince this team to play defense . . . the Raptors could make a return to the playoffs. But that is a lot of ifs.
11. Miami Heat
Projected Record: 31-51
2001 Record: 25-57 (No. 13)
I had them rated a little higher, but with the loss of Pat Riley, I think the Heat will stumble out of the gates as they adapt to a new coach and a new way of doing things. I think that the additions of Lamar Odom and Dwyane Wade this summer were good ones. But will the distraction of losing Riley set both of them back? The loss of Caron Butler at the start of the season isn't helping either.
12. New York Knicks
Projected Record: 30-52
2003 Record: 37-45 (No. 10)
From everything I've read and heard, Antonio McDyess is done. No, I'm not claiming that you won't see him on the floor this season. At some point, McDyess will return to the Knicks. What I'm talking about is McDyess as we know him. Missing two years and having multiple knee surgeries takes away the explosiveness that defined is career. If McDyess was healthy and ready to play at the same level he did pre-injury, the Knicks would be right there battling for an eighth seed. Without him, the combo of Charlie Ward, Allan Houston, Keith Van Horn, Kurt Thomas and Dikembe Mutombo just doesn't do it for me.
13. Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected Record: 27-55
2002 Record: 17-65 (No. 15)
Members of the LeBron cult, let's get back to reality for just a second. He's going to be good. Sooner or later it's going to happen. The Cavs, on the other hand, still have a long way to go. They are oozing with young talent, but it's hard to believe that one kid, straight out of high school, is going to give his team the extra 25 wins it will need this season to make the playoffs. A 10-game improvement in the NBA is always cause to celebrate. With Paul Silas at the helm and James running the point, I think the Cavs are heading in the right direction. After years of misery, that should be enough to make Cavs fans feel warm and fuzzy inside.
14. Atlanta Hawks
Projected Record: 23-59
2002 Record: 35-47 (No. 11)
It's time to blow this team up and start over again. Shareef Abdur-Rahim and Jason Terry are good players, but neither guy is someone you build around. Theo Ratliff is shaky, Stephen Jackson is going to really miss playing with Tim Duncan, and the Hawks' young players are still a year or two away.
15. Milwaukee Bucks
Projected Record: 19-63
2002 Record: 42-40 (No. 8)
I could be very wrong about the Bucks. They have a lot of young, athletic players who have some experience in the league. The problem is, with the exception of Michael Redd, none have proved they have what it takes to lead a team to victory. Tim Thomas, Desmond Mason, Dan Gadzuric, Marcus Haislip and rookie T. J. Ford are all nice pieces. I just think it will take them a year or two to find their groove.
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