This is long. But I really hope my fellow D Back fans will read all of this.
OK, as you guys have figured out by now if you have read my posts, I am pretty much into sabermetrics. I personally don't believe that the traditional stats do as good a job as the modern stats do in assesing player value. But unless you are a statistician or have a degree in advanced mathmatics, it is a bit of a leap of faith to embrace metrics like VORP or Win Shares, or Eqa, or the rest of the alphabet soup of new metrics available to evaluate players.
HOWEVER, everyone here knows intuitively that when you compare ballplayers, you have to take into account where they played. Obviously a 4.00 ERA in the AL is a better achievement, (in most cases) than a 4.00 ERA in the NL, simply because the AL has the DH. Everyone also knows that Coors field inflates hitting numbers, (and earned run average) while Dodger Stadium has traditionally repressed run scoring.
Well, there is an easy way to quantify this, and the information is so readily available, that I would like to encourage everyone to get familiar with two simple and easy to read metrics.
OPS+ and ERA+.
OPS, (on base plus slugging) is not a perfect number, as on base % is actually worth more towards run scoring than slugging %. However, it is still much better than the totally overated batting average.
OPS+ is a number that takes OPS, and then normalizes it against league average, and also adjusts for ballpark.
100= average.
less than 100= below average
above 100 = better than average.
ERA+ does the same thing for ERA. It simply puts it context, against league average and for ballpark.
These numbers are readily available at
baseball-reference.com.
If you go to any players page on that site, for the pitchers on the far right, you will see the ERA+ number. For hitters, scroll down to the "special batting" section, and again, look to the far right.
(They also have glossary pages where you can see definitions and how the numbers are calulated)
Now, let me give you an example of a few players the D Backs are reported to be looking at or have already made offers to.
1.) Royce Clayton: He has a career OPS+ of 78. This is really really low. That is roughly 22% below average. Even for a shortstop, it is really bad. Last year's OPS+ was 76. He has NEVER had an OPS+ of 100, in any season of his career. Meaning he has never even been average. And he is going to be 36.
2.) David Delucci: He has a career OPS+ of 92, and last year in Texas it was 94. He had a flash or two of excellence for us, in 1999 and 2001, in limited at bats, but basically, David Delucci is simplly a less than average outfielder who will be 31 years old.
3.) Tony Batista: His name was bandied about as a possible signee for the D backs. If we don't sign Troy Glaus, his name might still come up. His career OPS+ is 95, and last year it was 88. He would have to hit 40 homers and drive in 100+ runs to be above average, because he never ever takes a walk, and makes far too many outs.
4.) Danny Bautista: Ok, he is gone, but alot of people seem to think Danny should have been kept. Danny's career OPS+ is 84, and last year, despite his .286 batting average, his OPS+ was only 87
5.) And what about Troy Glaus. His career OPS+ is 119. Pretty good. But that is somewhat inflated by his career year in 2000. Still, he has the potential, if he can stay healthy of having an OPS+ of 130-150, which would be great. IF HEALTHY.
Anyone seeing a pattern here? It's like (with the exception of Glaus) the D Backs are trying to corner the market on guys that seldom walk, have low on base percentage, and don't hit for enough power or hit for enough average to make up for it.
What about pitching.
1.) Shawn Estes:
Shawn has a career ERA+ of 90. the last 3 seasons it has been, 78,74,86.
For the last 3 years, ESTES has been well below average, not even coming within whiffing distance of 100 ERA+
His 15-8 record was mostly luck, and due to 6 1/2 runs a game in support from the rockies per game. (no other rockies starter got more than 5 1/2 runs a game)
2.) Russ Ortiz: Career ERA+ of 103. Lat 3 seasons 105,109,104.
The last 3 seasons, he really has been only a little bit better than average. But he played on good teams in Atlanta and SFO, and he does seem to have knack for getting out of trouble, despite his very high walk totals. So his win totals are quite good. I don't think that high wire act is gonna cut it in Bank One Ballpark, and in that environment.
I hope I have not bored you guys. But this information should help you in evaluating the players that may or may not play for us here in the Valley this year.
go to baseball-reference.com, and look at the D Backs team page, and follow the links by clicking on the individual players, and find out who is better or worse than you thought!!
is to consider these guys.
