Interview with Football Outsiders

[cgolden]

I'm not sure how many of you guys are familiar with the site Football Outsiders but they're basically trying to establish some metrics for football stats like there are in baseball. I'm not sure how much of it is truly accurate (in terms of evaluating a players value) but it's interesting what they're trying to establish. Anyways we did an interview with them and got some very interesting answers regarding Dansby status as an elite linebacker, DRC status as a budding-superstar and the teams projections this coming season. Here's what they had to say about the Cardinals 2009 season:

ROTB - I saw that according to FO's preseason statistics/rankings that the Cardinals were more likely to land a top three pick in next year's draft than a playoff spot, what exactly goes into those projections?

BB - I knew this was coming. Yes, the projection system thinks that Arizona is going to be very, very bad this year. When the first set of projections came out, we said that couldn't be right, and we kept going back to the drawing board, making tweaks to the formula, looking for ways the system may be misreading Arizona. But no matter what we did the Cardinals came out near the bottom.
To understand why, you have to think of Arizona not as the NFC Champions, and not as a team that won two playoff games at home and a third because the opposing quarterback collapsed. Think of them as a team that went 6-0 against the weaklings in the NFC West and 3-7 outside the division. Think of a team that scored one more point than they allowed over the regular season. Think of a team that was blown out by the Jets, Patriots, Vikings, and Eagles. Now that seems like a team ready to collapse.
Now consider that the key players to the Cardinals' offense all made it through the entire season intact. Arizona started the same five linemen in all 20 regular season and playoff games last year. That's ridiculous. For comparison, every one of Seattle's top five linemen were on injured reserve by season's end. It's hard to believe Arizona won't suffer a significant injury to a lineman this year, and if they do, it could be catastrophic -- there's nothing on the bench but a bunch of Day Two draftees lucky to have a job.


The other two most important cogs in the Cardinals machine are Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald, and they also played in every game (as opposing cornerbacks are only too aware). If Warner goes down -- and he has never gone two seasons in a row without missing a game -- will Leinart be able to keep things on track? If Fitz misses time, is there anyone who can fill his shoes? (And I don't limit that question to Arizona's roster -- if Fitzgerald's not playing, I don't know if there's a human being on the earth who could take over.)
Speaking of Warner, he is now 38, and it's very doubtful he'll be able to match last year's 4,583-yard, 30-touchdown performance. Here is a complete list of all quarterbacks age 38 or older who have thrown for more than 3,600 yards or 25 touchdowns in a season: Warren Moon and Brett Favre. That's it. Joe Montana couldn't do it, Dan Marino couldn't do it, John Elway couldn't do it. It's possible Warner will defy Father Time like Favre and Moon, but it's more likely that his numbers will decline by at least a thousand yards and a half-dozen touchdowns. This team can't afford to lose that kind of production.
The final obvious harbinger of doom is the upheaval among the coaching staff. Teams that lose coordinators tend to decline, and Arizona lost theirs on both sides of the ball.
For what it's worth, despite all their faults, I have more confidence in the Cardinals than the projection system does. I expect them to win seven or eight games and contend with Seattle for the division crown.




Here's a link the entire article: http://www.revengeofthebirds.com/2009/8/14/987503/rotb-interviews-football-outsiders

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[LoyaltyisaCurse]

and a third because the opposing quarterback collapsed

This is one of many comments by the guy that you interviewed that make him seem like a real douche...

The Cards collapsed Delhomme and not the other way around... The projectoins can say what they want...

 

[Mulli]

People are severely overrating Seattle.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Locker room material.

 

[Catfish]

Seems to me like they did a (great) job of FAILING to recognize our depth at QB and along the O-line, as well as the training by Coach Grimm. They also fail to recognize that our pass-D has improved significantly with the maturation of DRC, the addition of McFadden, and what looks to be like a great increase in secondary speed from the incoming rookie class, which more than likely will make a contribution before the season is over. I believe the road to the Division Title comes through Glendale again, and that Offensively and Defensively we are deeper than last year, AND speedier.

 

[football karma]

its understandable to have doubts about the team

in citing the evidence -- they view the losses to Philly, Minnesota and New England as "representative" while viewing the subsequent wins in the playoffs over Atlanta, Carolina and Philly as outliers.

All this says to me is that the team has a lot of volatility in its results -- and that volatility cuts both ways. They have taken the low, I prefer to take the high.