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There was a time when the impending NCAA Tournament was going to be a case of auditing only for the Miami Heat, something more along the lines of defining which would be the 60 who would be drafted in June and then focusing on finding their latest undrafted diamond in the rough.
That was when Jimmy Butler was still a happy camper in South Florida. That was when the playoffs seemed like an almost sure thing in light of the middling competition in the bottom half of the Eastern Conference.
That was when the Heat were not expecting to have a 2025 first-round choice.
Now? Now as the NCAA Tournament opens, Adam Simon, Eric Amsler and Keith Askins figure to have their hands full scouting the 68-team field, because now there well could be two Heat selections to exercise in the June 25 first round of the draft.
In a perfect world, or at least a better world, the Heat simply would be using this year’s draft to pay off the longstanding debt of the first-round pick owed to the Oklahoma City Thunder, one, interestingly, first sent out in the 2019 trade to acquire Butler.
That pick, however, is lottery protected. So if the Heat do not make the 16-team playoff field (in essence by failing to advance out of the play-in tournament), the Heat would wind up with a 2025 pick in the first 14.
In a year with a loaded draft, that might sound optimal.
It is not.
Not close.
It would, in fact, be very terrible.
Because beyond the first-round bill due to the Thunder, the Heat also owe a first-round pick to the Charlotte Hornets in either 2027 or ’28 from the massively regrettable trade last year for Terry Rozier.
So failing to make the playoffs this year — because of the terms attached to the picks owed to the Thunder and Hornets — would mean …
(Sorry, hard to even be typing this.)
… the Heat then would owe the Thunder a completely unprotected first-round pick in 2026 and the Hornets a completely unprotected (sorry to be redundant) first-round pick in 2028.
So, yes, potentially even the No. 1 overall pick could be sent away without recourse those years by the Heat (the Heat not even afforded a seat at those two lotteries).
Yes, the Heat would have to be bad, very bad, close to 1989 and 2008 bad to fall to such an elite lottery pick in ’26 or ’28.
But one key injury also is all it takes in the NBA to be that bad (See Wade, Dwyane: 2008).
So, in many ways, it truly is playoff or bust for Erik Spoelstra & Co. these coming weeks, with the front office assuredly on the edges of their seats.
Then there is the other Heat first-round pick in play, the 2025 first-rounder acquired in the deal that sent Butler to the Golden State Warriors at the Feb. 6 NBA trading deadline.
At the time of the deal, the thought was the pick could have been as high as No. 11, with only top-10 protection (as opposed to the typical top-14 lottery protection).
But now that Butler has decided to care and compete, it looks more like that pick will be in the No. 20 range, the type of post-lottery range the Heat have selected the likes of Nikola Jovic, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Kel’el Ware the past three seasons.
Frankly, it would have better served the Heat to receive a future pick beyond this season from the Warriors, to help compensate for the upcoming outgoing picks.
With Jovic, Jaquez, Ware, 2024 second-rounder Pelle Larsson and pipeline prospects such as Keshad Johnson and Isaiah Stevens, it’s not as if the Heat necessarily need such a 2025-26 cap hit from such a middling 2025 first-round pick.
So, to recap:
In a perfect world. there would be a non-lottery pick going out in June to extinguish that obligation to the Thunder (and perhaps open the door for a similar non-lottery pick to the Hornets in 2027 to extinguish that obligation).
And in a perfect world, there would be a content Jimmy Butler in Miami instead of a Warriors 2025 first-round pick.
The upshot is, yes, it is full scout ahead for the Heat staff with tournament season at hand. And, yes, they have more than proven up to the draft task over the past decade, when also factoring in the Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro selections.
But the reality is the draft double duty comes from a less-than-optimal trade realities.
In many ways, the 2025 NBA draft potentially could stand as a stark example of all that has gone wrong for the Heat front office in recent years, somber scouting ahead, if you will.
WIGGINS PERSPECTIVE: While the Jimmy Butler trade can’t be viewed as anything other than a significant win for the Golden State Warriors in light of their race up the standings, there nonetheless remains a sense of loss — because of the loss of forward Andrew Wiggins to the Heat in the deal. In that regard, aware of the affinity of the Bay Arena for Wiggins, Warriors guard Buddy Hieldsaid during a radio interview he wished he was the player sent out instead. “Especially with Wiggs, it was emotional in that locker room,” Hield said. “I was even more emotional because I wish it was me that got traded because Wiggs did so much for this franchise. For a guy like that, I hated to see him go like that because he’s done so much for this franchise. And I said, ‘Man, I wish that was me,’ because he’s put his mark on this franchise, and I know how much he meant to this franchise and the city of San Fran.” While the Heat do not play at Golden State again this season, the Warriors – and Butler – will be at Kaseya Center on March 25.
TUCKER TIME: Why, yes, that is former Heat forward P.J. Tucker who will be on the New York Knicks’ roster when the teams meet Monday night at Madison Square Garden, with Tucker’s NBA limbo ending with a 10-day contract from the Knicks. Having been passed from the Philadelphia 76ers to the Los Angeles Clippers to the Toronto Raptors as salary-cap filler, Tucker said there is a feeling of revitalization at 39 to again be in an NBA uniform. “It felt like I just got drafted again,” he said, according to the New York Post. “It’s like a whole new fresh energy, especially coming from home. It’s different. Trust me, it’s different.” There was a point ahead of the Feb. 6 NBA trading deadline when it appeared Tucker would land back with the Heat, but that possibility ended when the Raptors made their deadline move for New Orleans Pelicans guard Brandon Ingram, the Heat instead winding up with Davion Mitchell to balance the Jimmy Butler trade under the cap.
REUNION TIME: NBA life has come full circle for former Heat forward Markieff Morris, who now is back with the Los Angeles Lakers after being included in the Luka Doncic trade. Morris won the 2020 NBA title with the Lakers before moving on to the Heat a year later. “I missed him,” LeBron Jamestold the Los Angeles Times. “We’ve been in the foxhole together. We’ve been on the floor during big games together. And there’s someone whose opinion I value very much when I come off the floor. He’s watching it. He’s seeing it. I’m just happy to have him back. It’s great to see him.” Morris, 35, said he has no issue serving solely as mentor. “I don’t play anyway,” he said. “So what? You going to get mad because I said a certain thing? I don’t have nothing to lose.”
ONE MORE TIME: If there was any doubt about the Heat being linked to another bid for Kevin Durant, Phoenix Suns owner Matt Ishbiaessentially told ESPN to be braced for more. In a piece about the Suns’ disastrous season and what might come next, Ishbia acknowledged, “I’ll just say that we’re going to evaluate in the offseason. We’re going to find a way to win, and it’s probably a lot easier winning with Kevin Durant than without him. But at the same time, yes, if we’re not good enough in this iteration of the Phoenix Suns, we’re going to find a way to be better next year. ” So, yes, more Durant-Heat talk to follow, with the teams already having spoken about Durant before last month’s trading deadline.
4. Heat players with a pair of 30-point games in the same season against the Los Angeles Clippers, with Tyler Herro joining the group with his 31 points Wednesday night after scoring 32 in Los Angeles on Jan. 13. The other Heat players to do it were Bam Adebayo (2022-23), LeBron James (2012-13) and Glen Rice (1994-95).
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That was when Jimmy Butler was still a happy camper in South Florida. That was when the playoffs seemed like an almost sure thing in light of the middling competition in the bottom half of the Eastern Conference.
That was when the Heat were not expecting to have a 2025 first-round choice.
Now? Now as the NCAA Tournament opens, Adam Simon, Eric Amsler and Keith Askins figure to have their hands full scouting the 68-team field, because now there well could be two Heat selections to exercise in the June 25 first round of the draft.
In a perfect world, or at least a better world, the Heat simply would be using this year’s draft to pay off the longstanding debt of the first-round pick owed to the Oklahoma City Thunder, one, interestingly, first sent out in the 2019 trade to acquire Butler.
That pick, however, is lottery protected. So if the Heat do not make the 16-team playoff field (in essence by failing to advance out of the play-in tournament), the Heat would wind up with a 2025 pick in the first 14.
In a year with a loaded draft, that might sound optimal.
It is not.
Not close.
It would, in fact, be very terrible.
Because beyond the first-round bill due to the Thunder, the Heat also owe a first-round pick to the Charlotte Hornets in either 2027 or ’28 from the massively regrettable trade last year for Terry Rozier.
So failing to make the playoffs this year — because of the terms attached to the picks owed to the Thunder and Hornets — would mean …
(Sorry, hard to even be typing this.)
… the Heat then would owe the Thunder a completely unprotected first-round pick in 2026 and the Hornets a completely unprotected (sorry to be redundant) first-round pick in 2028.
So, yes, potentially even the No. 1 overall pick could be sent away without recourse those years by the Heat (the Heat not even afforded a seat at those two lotteries).
Yes, the Heat would have to be bad, very bad, close to 1989 and 2008 bad to fall to such an elite lottery pick in ’26 or ’28.
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But one key injury also is all it takes in the NBA to be that bad (See Wade, Dwyane: 2008).
So, in many ways, it truly is playoff or bust for Erik Spoelstra & Co. these coming weeks, with the front office assuredly on the edges of their seats.
Then there is the other Heat first-round pick in play, the 2025 first-rounder acquired in the deal that sent Butler to the Golden State Warriors at the Feb. 6 NBA trading deadline.
At the time of the deal, the thought was the pick could have been as high as No. 11, with only top-10 protection (as opposed to the typical top-14 lottery protection).
But now that Butler has decided to care and compete, it looks more like that pick will be in the No. 20 range, the type of post-lottery range the Heat have selected the likes of Nikola Jovic, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Kel’el Ware the past three seasons.
Frankly, it would have better served the Heat to receive a future pick beyond this season from the Warriors, to help compensate for the upcoming outgoing picks.
With Jovic, Jaquez, Ware, 2024 second-rounder Pelle Larsson and pipeline prospects such as Keshad Johnson and Isaiah Stevens, it’s not as if the Heat necessarily need such a 2025-26 cap hit from such a middling 2025 first-round pick.
So, to recap:
In a perfect world. there would be a non-lottery pick going out in June to extinguish that obligation to the Thunder (and perhaps open the door for a similar non-lottery pick to the Hornets in 2027 to extinguish that obligation).
And in a perfect world, there would be a content Jimmy Butler in Miami instead of a Warriors 2025 first-round pick.
The upshot is, yes, it is full scout ahead for the Heat staff with tournament season at hand. And, yes, they have more than proven up to the draft task over the past decade, when also factoring in the Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro selections.
But the reality is the draft double duty comes from a less-than-optimal trade realities.
In many ways, the 2025 NBA draft potentially could stand as a stark example of all that has gone wrong for the Heat front office in recent years, somber scouting ahead, if you will.
IN THE LANE
WIGGINS PERSPECTIVE: While the Jimmy Butler trade can’t be viewed as anything other than a significant win for the Golden State Warriors in light of their race up the standings, there nonetheless remains a sense of loss — because of the loss of forward Andrew Wiggins to the Heat in the deal. In that regard, aware of the affinity of the Bay Arena for Wiggins, Warriors guard Buddy Hieldsaid during a radio interview he wished he was the player sent out instead. “Especially with Wiggs, it was emotional in that locker room,” Hield said. “I was even more emotional because I wish it was me that got traded because Wiggs did so much for this franchise. For a guy like that, I hated to see him go like that because he’s done so much for this franchise. And I said, ‘Man, I wish that was me,’ because he’s put his mark on this franchise, and I know how much he meant to this franchise and the city of San Fran.” While the Heat do not play at Golden State again this season, the Warriors – and Butler – will be at Kaseya Center on March 25.
TUCKER TIME: Why, yes, that is former Heat forward P.J. Tucker who will be on the New York Knicks’ roster when the teams meet Monday night at Madison Square Garden, with Tucker’s NBA limbo ending with a 10-day contract from the Knicks. Having been passed from the Philadelphia 76ers to the Los Angeles Clippers to the Toronto Raptors as salary-cap filler, Tucker said there is a feeling of revitalization at 39 to again be in an NBA uniform. “It felt like I just got drafted again,” he said, according to the New York Post. “It’s like a whole new fresh energy, especially coming from home. It’s different. Trust me, it’s different.” There was a point ahead of the Feb. 6 NBA trading deadline when it appeared Tucker would land back with the Heat, but that possibility ended when the Raptors made their deadline move for New Orleans Pelicans guard Brandon Ingram, the Heat instead winding up with Davion Mitchell to balance the Jimmy Butler trade under the cap.
REUNION TIME: NBA life has come full circle for former Heat forward Markieff Morris, who now is back with the Los Angeles Lakers after being included in the Luka Doncic trade. Morris won the 2020 NBA title with the Lakers before moving on to the Heat a year later. “I missed him,” LeBron Jamestold the Los Angeles Times. “We’ve been in the foxhole together. We’ve been on the floor during big games together. And there’s someone whose opinion I value very much when I come off the floor. He’s watching it. He’s seeing it. I’m just happy to have him back. It’s great to see him.” Morris, 35, said he has no issue serving solely as mentor. “I don’t play anyway,” he said. “So what? You going to get mad because I said a certain thing? I don’t have nothing to lose.”
ONE MORE TIME: If there was any doubt about the Heat being linked to another bid for Kevin Durant, Phoenix Suns owner Matt Ishbiaessentially told ESPN to be braced for more. In a piece about the Suns’ disastrous season and what might come next, Ishbia acknowledged, “I’ll just say that we’re going to evaluate in the offseason. We’re going to find a way to win, and it’s probably a lot easier winning with Kevin Durant than without him. But at the same time, yes, if we’re not good enough in this iteration of the Phoenix Suns, we’re going to find a way to be better next year. ” So, yes, more Durant-Heat talk to follow, with the teams already having spoken about Durant before last month’s trading deadline.
NUMBER
4. Heat players with a pair of 30-point games in the same season against the Los Angeles Clippers, with Tyler Herro joining the group with his 31 points Wednesday night after scoring 32 in Los Angeles on Jan. 13. The other Heat players to do it were Bam Adebayo (2022-23), LeBron James (2012-13) and Glen Rice (1994-95).
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