is Blu-Ray a failure?

Gaddabout

Plucky Comic Relief
Supporting Member
Joined
Jul 2, 2004
Posts
16,043
Reaction score
11
Location
Gilbert
http://www.cringely.com/2009/06/is-blu-ray-a-failure/

There was a minor flap in tech news last week when the CEO of Activision, a huge video game company, called on Sony to drop the price of its PlayStation 3 game console, suggesting that if Sony didn’t follow this advice Activision would consider withdrawing support for the game platform altogether. I hardly expect Activision to withdraw its PS3 support, nor do I expect Sony to dramatically reduce the price of systems that have already effectively dropped 20 percent or more in Sony’s top market, the U.S., because of the weak dollar. To the astonishment of hard-core gamers, in fact, I’d suggest that this little drama has nothing to do with game sales or games at all, but is instead directed at the Blu-Ray optical disk drive inside every PS3. The dude from Activision, sensing blood in the water, is trying to look like a shark, for there is growing sentiment in the industry that Blu-Ray, as it was originally intended, is a failure.
 

Chaplin

Better off silent
Joined
May 13, 2002
Posts
46,594
Reaction score
17,220
Location
Round Rock, TX
No it is not.

The biggest problem with Blu-Ray right now is the prices on hardware and (IMO) software. In fact, I'll go out on a limb and say that software is the main reason why there are problems now. Who's going to buy Grumpy Old Men on Blu-Ray with only a trailer as an extra? Even if you love the movie, what's the incentive in double-dipping? Now, talking about movies like Speed Racer, the Lord of the Rings trilogy, Wall-E or The Dark Knight, and Blu-Ray CLEARLY is a better format, even to the non-cinephile. But again, we're talking about a huge price difference between blu-ray and regular DVD. Not only does the price need to be lower, but they have to give more incentive. An uprezzing DVD player with a DVD of Groundhog Day will look pretty much the same as a blu-ray of Groundhog Day. But throw in some great extras and some interactive features, and you've got the beginnings of a growing market. I personally don't give a crap about he picture quality of a movie like Groundhog Day, and especially of older movies like Casablanca--it's the extras that are the selling point for me. And with the sizes that Blu-Ray can accomodate, there's no reason for a blu-ray to have only a trailer on it as an extra.

Of course, I AM a collector, so my reasoning isn't going to jive with a lot of the normal public.

Yes, the PS3 is very high, but Sony is reducing it by 100 bucks in August, so I'm not sure what credence I'd put in this article. If Blu-Ray software started at $20 or even $25 instead of $35, then this blog wouldn't have even been written.
 

Mulli

...
Supporting Member
Joined
Jul 16, 2004
Posts
52,529
Reaction score
4,607
Location
Generational
No it is not.

The biggest problem with Blu-Ray right now is the prices on hardware and (IMO) software. In fact, I'll go out on a limb and say that software is the main reason why there are problems now. Who's going to buy Grumpy Old Men on Blu-Ray with only a trailer as an extra? Even if you love the movie, what's the incentive in double-dipping? Now, talking about movies like Speed Racer, the Lord of the Rings trilogy, Wall-E or The Dark Knight, and Blu-Ray CLEARLY is a better format, even to the non-cinephile. But again, we're talking about a huge price difference between blu-ray and regular DVD. Not only does the price need to be lower, but they have to give more incentive. An uprezzing DVD player with a DVD of Groundhog Day will look pretty much the same as a blu-ray of Groundhog Day. But throw in some great extras and some interactive features, and you've got the beginnings of a growing market. I personally don't give a crap about he picture quality of a movie like Groundhog Day, and especially of older movies like Casablanca--it's the extras that are the selling point for me. And with the sizes that Blu-Ray can accomodate, there's no reason for a blu-ray to have only a trailer on it as an extra.

Of course, I AM a collector, so my reasoning isn't going to jive with a lot of the normal public.

Yes, the PS3 is very high, but Sony is reducing it by 100 bucks in August, so I'm not sure what credence I'd put in this article. If Blu-Ray software started at $20 or even $25 instead of $35, then this blog wouldn't have even been written.
How much will PS3 be with the drop?
 

SuperSpck

ASFN Addict
Joined
Mar 24, 2004
Posts
7,977
Reaction score
15
Location
Iowa
Agree with Chap.

I'd upgrade my library if Blu delivered all the amazing content they promised and had a more reasonable price.

I do believe that like a lot of Sony failures, this isn't so much about manufacturing as it is marketing and price (BETA, minidisc, etc).

I also think it got out 3 years too late. Right now streaming content looks to be the future, not information on disc.
 
OP
OP
Gaddabout

Gaddabout

Plucky Comic Relief
Supporting Member
Joined
Jul 2, 2004
Posts
16,043
Reaction score
11
Location
Gilbert
Does Sony face tariffs in the U.S.? I dunno. It seems like all Japanese tech gets jacked up in price when it hits the U.S.
 

Chaplin

Better off silent
Joined
May 13, 2002
Posts
46,594
Reaction score
17,220
Location
Round Rock, TX
Agree with Chap.

I'd upgrade my library if Blu delivered all the amazing content they promised and had a more reasonable price.

I do believe that like a lot of Sony failures, this isn't so much about manufacturing as it is marketing and price (BETA, minidisc, etc).

I also think it got out 3 years too late. Right now streaming content looks to be the future, not information on disc.

Streaming content IS the future, but what people don't realize is that it's pretty far away, definitely at least 5 years, but probably closer to 10 years down the road. And then you have to take into account it might take another few years to adopt it. Look how long digital TV has taken to actually go through. Downloading is the future, but that future could be as much as 15 years away.

Taken in context, laserdisc as a format last only about 8 years or so (with some overlap) and DVD has only been around about 12 years.

The first Blu-Ray I ever purchased was several months before I had my PS3, and that was The Road Warrior. The reason I got that movie was because there was a commentary on it that wasn't on the DVD release. When I buy Blu, I ALWAYS check to see what the Blu-Ray exclusives are. If they are good, then it's worth the purchase (or in my case, the double-dip). I mean, there was no way I was going to buy the DVD over the Blu-Ray of The Dark Knight, and there is a difference, but that difference isn't in overall picture quality, it's in the audio, the features and the quality of the blacks in the picture.

Especially with audio, there is a HUGE difference between DVD and Blu-Ray.
 

Chaplin

Better off silent
Joined
May 13, 2002
Posts
46,594
Reaction score
17,220
Location
Round Rock, TX
How much will PS3 be with the drop?

The 160GB console is currently 500 bucks, so it will be 400. I would guess there will be some dropping on the smaller models as well.

Speculation is that if/when PS3 drops in price, the XBOX 360 will drop 50 bucks and Nintendo will be pressured to drop the Wii to 200.
 

Ryanwb

ASFN IDOL
BANNED BY MODERATORS
Joined
May 13, 2002
Posts
35,576
Reaction score
6
Location
Mesa
This is why I wish HD-DVD would have stuck around a bit more. Competition fuels price reductions. Now that Blu-Ray took the cake it seems like the prices have leveled off a bit. The same Samsung player I priced out 3 months ago is only 10 dollars cheaper today. I can't justify spending over $200.00 at this point
 

Shane

My time of year!
Super Moderator
Moderator
Supporting Member
Joined
May 13, 2002
Posts
70,197
Reaction score
41,632
Location
Las Vegas
HD DVD was a far superior product IMHO. I dont care if the disks didnt have as much storage. Which wasnt going to be an issue anyway with the upgraded HD disks.
 

Ryanwb

ASFN IDOL
BANNED BY MODERATORS
Joined
May 13, 2002
Posts
35,576
Reaction score
6
Location
Mesa
HD DVD was a far superior product IMHO. I dont care if the disks didnt have as much storage. Which wasnt going to be an issue anyway with the upgraded HD disks.

I agree 100%

BTW, the Blu Ray I have been pricing out is the Samsung BD-P1600. It was $249.00 in March and is $239.00 at Costco as of Saturday
 
OP
OP
Gaddabout

Gaddabout

Plucky Comic Relief
Supporting Member
Joined
Jul 2, 2004
Posts
16,043
Reaction score
11
Location
Gilbert
Streaming content IS the future, but what people don't realize is that it's pretty far away, definitely at least 5 years, but probably closer to 10 years down the road. And then you have to take into account it might take another few years to adopt it. Look how long digital TV has taken to actually go through. Downloading is the future, but that future could be as much as 15 years away.

Taken in context, laserdisc as a format last only about 8 years or so (with some overlap) and DVD has only been around about 12 years.

The first Blu-Ray I ever purchased was several months before I had my PS3, and that was The Road Warrior. The reason I got that movie was because there was a commentary on it that wasn't on the DVD release. When I buy Blu, I ALWAYS check to see what the Blu-Ray exclusives are. If they are good, then it's worth the purchase (or in my case, the double-dip). I mean, there was no way I was going to buy the DVD over the Blu-Ray of The Dark Knight, and there is a difference, but that difference isn't in overall picture quality, it's in the audio, the features and the quality of the blacks in the picture.

Especially with audio, there is a HUGE difference between DVD and Blu-Ray.

The only thing holding back streaming video is bandwidth. Adopting it will happen overnight, because hardware is both cheap and easily acquired. Delivery is the issue, and that's a big issue. They get that resolved and physical recordings will disappear like so much vinyl.
 
OP
OP
Gaddabout

Gaddabout

Plucky Comic Relief
Supporting Member
Joined
Jul 2, 2004
Posts
16,043
Reaction score
11
Location
Gilbert
The 160GB console is currently 500 bucks, so it will be 400. I would guess there will be some dropping on the smaller models as well.

Speculation is that if/when PS3 drops in price, the XBOX 360 will drop 50 bucks and Nintendo will be pressured to drop the Wii to 200.

In this economy, I can't understand how these companies can sustain even more price cuts on products in which they're already losing money hand over fist. Boggles the mind. I wouldn't be surprised if one of the big three gave up -- probably the one that already has other stuff on their plate, like Microsoft.
 

Ryanwb

ASFN IDOL
BANNED BY MODERATORS
Joined
May 13, 2002
Posts
35,576
Reaction score
6
Location
Mesa
The only thing holding back streaming video is bandwidth. Adopting it will happen overnight, because hardware is both cheap and easily acquired. Delivery is the issue, and that's a big issue. They get that resolved and physical recordings will disappear like so much vinyl.

yes, our network infrastructure in this country is vastly inferior to some of the other nations of the world and we are going to hit a ceiling very soon on how much traffic it can handle. This is slightly due to network neutrality initiatives but also because the system has grown faster than they can build it.

We're all going to have to pay for it when we do hit that limit
 

Chaplin

Better off silent
Joined
May 13, 2002
Posts
46,594
Reaction score
17,220
Location
Round Rock, TX
The only thing holding back streaming video is bandwidth. Adopting it will happen overnight, because hardware is both cheap and easily acquired. Delivery is the issue, and that's a big issue. They get that resolved and physical recordings will disappear like so much vinyl.

That's pretty optomistic, considering how high prices are even now for a low level HTML website to get any kind of bandwidth.
 

Dr. Jones

Has No Time For Love
Joined
Nov 2, 2004
Posts
28,408
Reaction score
17,254
I agree 100%

BTW, the Blu Ray I have been pricing out is the Samsung BD-P1600. It was $249.00 in March and is $239.00 at Costco as of Saturday

I bought it on Amazon two months ago when you could get $125 off if you bought 4 blu ray movies.

GREAT DEAL.

Got Wedding Crashers, Twister, Oceans 11, & Full Metal Jacket AND the BDP 1600 for $191.
 

D-Dogg

A Whole New World
Supporting Member
Joined
Sep 10, 2003
Posts
45,194
Reaction score
1,477
Location
In The End Zone
Are you guys talking about streaming as storage or what? Because I have no issues (and in fact absolutely LOVE) streaming my Netflix over Xbox360.

That future is already here...will only get better. What are you guys talking about if not what Netflix is already doing?
 
OP
OP
Gaddabout

Gaddabout

Plucky Comic Relief
Supporting Member
Joined
Jul 2, 2004
Posts
16,043
Reaction score
11
Location
Gilbert
That future is already here...will only get better. What are you guys talking about if not what Netflix is already doing?


VOD. Video On Demand. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you have to start downloading a Netflix movie in the morning if you want it at night.

The streaming of the future is all about "right now," with no nasty buffering issues, no lossi from bandwidth, the full digital experience.
 

Chaplin

Better off silent
Joined
May 13, 2002
Posts
46,594
Reaction score
17,220
Location
Round Rock, TX
VOD. Video On Demand. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you have to start downloading a Netflix movie in the morning if you want it at night.

The streaming of the future is all about "right now," with no nasty buffering issues, no lossi from bandwidth, the full digital experience.

With extras and interactive features as well. And we are a loooong way away from downloading the full DVD/Blu-Ray experience. Getting a single movie is great, but like you said, it's time consuming, and it isn't really what DVDs are about. Pure downloading like some people are saying is coming or already here is similar to videotape--a single movie on a piece of media--no extras or other features. Granted the quality is much, much better, but the concept is similar.
 

D-Dogg

A Whole New World
Supporting Member
Joined
Sep 10, 2003
Posts
45,194
Reaction score
1,477
Location
In The End Zone
VOD. Video On Demand. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you have to start downloading a Netflix movie in the morning if you want it at night.

The streaming of the future is all about "right now," with no nasty buffering issues, no lossi from bandwidth, the full digital experience.

No, I just pop on the XBox, select my movie and I'm watching it 1 minute later. Or TV show, or whatever.

It's VOD. HD VOD.
 

D-Dogg

A Whole New World
Supporting Member
Joined
Sep 10, 2003
Posts
45,194
Reaction score
1,477
Location
In The End Zone
With extras and interactive features as well. And we are a loooong way away from downloading the full DVD/Blu-Ray experience. Getting a single movie is great, but like you said, it's time consuming, and it isn't really what DVDs are about. Pure downloading like some people are saying is coming or already here is similar to videotape--a single movie on a piece of media--no extras or other features. Granted the quality is much, much better, but the concept is similar.

Extras and interactive features aren't in my experience, but it's the highest quality, and there is no time-consuming element to it. It's instant. In fact, when I put it in my Netflix queue, in one minute it appears on my Xbox screen. And then one minute later it is playing. I show people that when they come over and they flip out. No buffering, nada. And if I don't finish, days later I can resume from where I was. And it's not stored on my hard drive...no storage space is used by me. I have 107 items in my instant queue, and I scroll through them like a little library of films.

Adding the Interactive features wouldn't be much of an issue, if there was a big scream for it. Already with the TV series, like The Office, the main screen is like a DVD menu where I can select each episode, check out a recap of the episode and then rate it, going back to my Netflix rating system. Adding the features from a DVD to that isn't anything hard to do if the demand is there.

It isn't yet the perfect system (rewinding will force a small buffer, so slo mo and that kind of thing isn't there yet) but it's a whole lot closer than you guys are making it out to be.
 

Chaplin

Better off silent
Joined
May 13, 2002
Posts
46,594
Reaction score
17,220
Location
Round Rock, TX
Extras and interactive features aren't in my experience, but it's the highest quality, and there is no time-consuming element to it. It's instant. In fact, when I put it in my Netflix queue, in one minute it appears on my Xbox screen. And then one minute later it is playing. I show people that when they come over and they flip out. No buffering, nada. And if I don't finish, days later I can resume from where I was. And it's not stored on my hard drive...no storage space is used by me. I have 107 items in my instant queue, and I scroll through them like a little library of films.

Adding the Interactive features wouldn't be much of an issue, if there was a big scream for it. Already with the TV series, like The Office, the main screen is like a DVD menu where I can select each episode, check out a recap of the episode and then rate it, going back to my Netflix rating system. Adding the features from a DVD to that isn't anything hard to do if the demand is there.

It isn't yet the perfect system (rewinding will force a small buffer, so slo mo and that kind of thing isn't there yet) but it's a whole lot closer than you guys are making it out to be.

There is no buffering because it's direct streaming. It's direct streaming without a lot of people connecting. That is NOT what the industry is moving towards. That's a rental system. You're totally taking one system and assuming it's something it's not.

We're talking about buying movies, and if there were no DVDs left, you can't even begin to imagine the kind of costs and slow downs that would cause. Enjoy your streaming because it isn't going to last.
 

D-Dogg

A Whole New World
Supporting Member
Joined
Sep 10, 2003
Posts
45,194
Reaction score
1,477
Location
In The End Zone
There is no buffering because it's direct streaming. It's direct streaming without a lot of people connecting. That is NOT what the industry is moving towards. That's a rental system. You're totally taking one system and assuming it's something it's not.

We're talking about buying movies, and if there were no DVDs left, you can't even begin to imagine the kind of costs and slow downs that would cause. Enjoy your streaming because it isn't going to last.

That's why I asked if you were talking about something else, and the response was "VOD" which is what Netflix is.

If you are talking about purchasing a DVD and having it stored on a server somewhere, where you can access your purchased DVD and nobody else can, then I'm not buying that as where the industry is headed.

There is virtually no difference in that and renting streaming video from Netflix, other than the small volume connection vs. large volume connection. Unless you are a collector, there's no point in buying digital media and storing it on your own storage space (itunes model) when you can stream what you want, when you want it. At least to the mainstream consumer (who at the moment, are just fine with DVDs in the first place, and tickled by up-converting DVD players.)
 

D-Dogg

A Whole New World
Supporting Member
Joined
Sep 10, 2003
Posts
45,194
Reaction score
1,477
Location
In The End Zone
BTW, your contention of lots of problems if there were no DVDs wouldn't actually be the case, because based on popularity, Netflix would dedicate more "copies" of the hottest movies on mirror servers, to relieve bandwidth. Time will tell, but we are a LONG, LONG, LONG way from any type of VOD being mainstream like DVD is currently.
 
Top