kerouac9
Klowned by Keim
It’s not a comparison from a production perspective. Pittman was the third WR and 4th or 5th receiving option on a playoff team.
Is Kyler Murray the answer at QB for next year and beyond?
- Thread starter Sun Devil Mania
- Start date
TheCardFan
Things have changed.
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TheCardFan
Things have changed.
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TheCardFan
Things have changed.
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I think it is a bit stubborn if you still don't accept the potential with Murray next season. Yes, he makes clear mistakes, but consider the context. He also makes bigtime plays. Sure, if they get the #1 pick then it should at least be a discussion, but other than that, I don't see how anyone can think it make sense to start over once again already.
Crimson Warrior
Dangerous Murray Zealot
That's amazing, wow. Great find TheCardFan, thank you!
that graphic makes some statements that would sure cause a ton of arguments...
Like, Kyler makes good things happen as often as Lamar and Josh,...and nearly Mahomes...but gets sacked waaay less than any of them... sure makes him look like a top 5 QB in effectiveness.... but sample size matters
I think you are ready sack rate wrong, Kyler gets sacked more than average but also has a high create rate - so more boom/bust variability, like Russell Wilson, in these scenarios (sack rate is inverted on the axis - high to low going up)
IIt was easy to get caught up in the excitement of seeing Murray make "some good plays" this past weekend. But just to put his performance this season, and in his last game, into context....
The Athletic has an article today ranking NFL QBs by EPA per dropback.
Numbers 1-10:
Interesting: "Purdy is in the midst of a remarkable run. [He] only produced his third-best passer rating this season at 148.8 in Sunday’s win over the Eagles. Take it a step further. It’s only his third-best passer rating in the last four weeks! And his fourth best this season was a measly 144.4 rating … against the Cowboys. What? How is that even a thing? His 0.73 EPA rate Sunday was the second best of the season and his career."
Numbers 11-20:
Numbers 21-30:
Gulp.
"Kyler Murray yielded his first positive EPA rate since returning to action in the Arizona Cardinals’ Week 13 win over the Steelers. He also tallied his best passer rating since his return, but his lowest completion percentage (56.5 percent) as well."
Numbers 31-37:
The Athletic has an article today ranking NFL QBs by EPA per dropback.
Numbers 1-10:
| QB | EPA/DB, season | EPA/DB, wk 13 | Pass Rtg, season | Pass Rtg, wk 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 0.30 | 0.73 | 116.1 | 148.8 |
| Dak Prescott | ||||
| Tua Tagovailoa | ||||
| Josh Allen | ||||
| CJ Stroud | ||||
| Patrick Mahomes | ||||
| Justin Herbert | ||||
| Jalen Hurts | ||||
| Matthew Stafford | ||||
| Jordan Love | 0.09 | 0.41 | 90.2 | 118.6 |
Interesting: "Purdy is in the midst of a remarkable run. [He] only produced his third-best passer rating this season at 148.8 in Sunday’s win over the Eagles. Take it a step further. It’s only his third-best passer rating in the last four weeks! And his fourth best this season was a measly 144.4 rating … against the Cowboys. What? How is that even a thing? His 0.73 EPA rate Sunday was the second best of the season and his career."
Numbers 11-20:
| QB | EPA/DB, season | EPA/DB, wk 13 | Pass Rtg, season | Pass Rtg, wk 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 0.08 | 98.1 | ||
| Kirk Cousins | ||||
| Baker Mayfield | ||||
| Geno Smith | ||||
| Lamar Jackson | ||||
| Trevor Lawrence | ||||
| Derek Carr | ||||
| Gardner Minshew | ||||
| Joe Burrow | ||||
| Will Levis | -0.03 | 86.9 |
Numbers 21-30:
| QB | EPA/DB, season | EPA/DB, wk 13 | Pass Rtg, season | Pass Rtg, wk 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan O'Connell | -0.04 | 76.4 | ||
| Russell Wilson | ||||
| Jimmy Garoppolo | ||||
| Joshua Dobbs | ||||
| Sam Howell | ||||
| Justin Fields | ||||
| Tyson Bagent | ||||
| Desmond Ridder | ||||
| Ryan Tannehill | ||||
| Kyler Murray | -0.12 | 0.05 | 81.7 | 89.9 |
Gulp.
"Kyler Murray yielded his first positive EPA rate since returning to action in the Arizona Cardinals’ Week 13 win over the Steelers. He also tallied his best passer rating since his return, but his lowest completion percentage (56.5 percent) as well."
Numbers 31-37:
| QB | EPA/DB, season | EPA/DB, wk 13 | Pass Rtg, season | Pass Rtg, wk 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | -0.15 | 81.4 | ||
| Deshaun Watson | ||||
| Mac Jones | ||||
| Bryce Young | ||||
| Daniel Jones | ||||
| Zach Wilson | ||||
| Tommy DeVito | -0.24 | 92.4 |
ah, I see...I stand corrected!!
This graph isn't how often wide receivers are open. It's how often Kyler throws to wide open receivers.
Its low because Kyler isn't great at reading defenses and adjusting his reads, and because he often decides pre snap who's getting the ball no matter what.
I showed on an earlier graph his 1st read is open at the 5th best rate in the league. This just shows that when guys are wide open he's missing them.
This
Chopper0080
2021 - Prove It
Kyler talking like he plays any games in the preseason.
Today, another article in the Athletic that ranks NFL QBs by "Quarterback Reliability Index":
| RANK | QUARTERBACK | TEAM | WINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dak Prescott | Cowboys | 7.9 |
| 2 | Trevor Lawrence | Jaguars | 7.7 |
| 3 | Jalen Hurts | Eagles | 7.6 |
| 4 | Jared Goff | Lions | 7.0 |
| 5 | Josh Allen | Bills | 6.8 |
| 6 | Tua Tagovailoa | Dolphins | 6.8 |
| 7 | Brock Purdy | 49ers | 6.4 |
| 8 | Gardner Minshew | Colts | 6.3 |
| 9 | Lamar Jackson | Ravens | 6.2 |
| 10 | Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | 5.6 |
| 11 | Justin Herbert | Chargers | 4.8 |
| 12 | Joe Burrow | Bengals | 4.7 |
| 13 | Jordan Love | Packers | 4.6 |
| 14 | Jimmy Garoppolo | Raiders | 4.4 |
| 15 | Geno Smith | Seahawks | 4.4 |
| 16 | Matthew Stafford | Rams | 4.2 |
| 17 | Kirk Cousins | Vikings | 4.1 |
| 18 | C.J. Stroud* | Texans | 3.9 |
| 19 | Baker Mayfield | Buccaneers | 2.1 |
| 20 | Desmond Ridder | Falcons | 1.6 |
| 21 | Justin Fields | Bears | 1.6 |
| 22 | Daniel Jones | Giants | 1.6 |
| 23 | Sam Howell | Commanders | 1.3 |
| 24 | Kenny Pickett | Steelers | 1.2 |
| 25 | Aidan O'Connell* | Raiders | 1.2 |
| 26 | Anthony Richardson* | Colts | 0.8 |
| 27 | Derek Carr | Saints | 0.6 |
| 28 | Tommy DeVito* | Giants | 0.3 |
| 29 | Ryan Tannehill | Titans | 0.1 |
| 30 | Will Levis* | Titans | 0.0 |
| 31 | Josh Dobbs | Vikings | -0.2 |
| 32 | Kyler Murray | Cardinals | -0.5 |
| 33 | Russell Wilson | Broncos | -0.7 |
| 34 | Taylor Heinicke | Falcons | -0.8 |
| 35 | Mac Jones | Patriots | -1.0 |
| 36 | Deshaun Watson | Browns | -2.0 |
| 37 | Bryce Young* | Panthers | -2.4 |
| 38 | Zach Wilson | Jets | -2.4 |
| 39 | Aaron Rodgers | Jets | -2.5 |
| 40 | Dorian Thompson-Robinson* | Browns | -3.2 |
football karma
Michael snuggles the cap space
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on one hand -- i get that its four weeks of live practice reps
but on the other: quite a bit of diff from "im full go" three weeks ao
Crimson Warrior
Dangerous Murray Zealot
So I guess I'd take Gardner Minshew on my team instead of Pat Mahomes or (holds his nose) Joe Burrow?
Edit - j/k daves, and thanks for posting!
Last edited:
Oof
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Seems really silly. They don't even define what a "replacement-level QB" is.
Phrazbit
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Stout
Hold onto the ball, Murray!
Baby Ruth?
Chopper0080
2021 - Prove It
Skeptical of stats like this but Kyler has been inconsistent so this kinda makes sense.
Next week is kind of a big deal.
Even with a little time off Kyler has extra prep and practice time over the bye before facing the Niners.
And while we lost the road game we were in it until Q4 and Dobbs threw for 28/41, 265 yards and 2 TD's.
If Kyler comes out of a home game significantly worse than that I'm not sure what argument can be made in support.
Even with a little time off Kyler has extra prep and practice time over the bye before facing the Niners.
And while we lost the road game we were in it until Q4 and Dobbs threw for 28/41, 265 yards and 2 TD's.
If Kyler comes out of a home game significantly worse than that I'm not sure what argument can be made in support.
We are totally overmatched against the 49ers. They are in the hunt for top seed and have every reason to keep their foot on the pedal.
I can only hope Murray can keep composed and we have a game plan to not get him killed.
Turns out perhaps Steelers game was not that impressive, lol.
The 49ers wr’s overmatch our DB’s.
Their running game overmatch our d-line.
Their front 7 overmatch our o-line.
This game has blow out written all over it.
