Jan. 9th, NBA Draft, International players

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This is dated Jan. 9th...........WHO KNOWS WHY??
There was no report last Friday so that is probably why.
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NBA Draft: International men of mystery
By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Send an Email to Chad Ford Friday, January 9


Pavel Podkolzine turned 19 years old today.

"I feel 19," Podkolzine says with a hint of laughter. "It's good. It's all good. I'm back baby. I'm back."

Depending on who you ask, he's either the next hot international prospect or an asterisk in the international invasion of 2003. Either way, that's quite a burden to be carrying at the age of 19.

"He's a top-three pick in the draft this year, no question," one GM says. "He wasn't ready last year, but this year, I think he'll have enough experience under his belt to make a better impression."

"Washed up," another NBA GM says matter of factly. "He was a flash in the pan. I'm not sure anyone can duplicate the magic that he brought last year. The unknown is very sexy. Once you get out the magnifying glass, you don't always like what you see."


At 7-foot-5, Podkolzin has size and mobility, but he lacks game experience.
Podkolzine, for those who can't remember, is the 7-foot-5 Siberian sensation who took the NBA draft by storm last June and then, just as quickly, disappeared from the radar screen. After being projected as a lottery pick by many NBA scouts and GMs, a diagnosis of acromegaly (a growth hormone secreting pituitary adenoma) just before the deadline pushed him to withdraw from the draft.

His story continues to be amazing. In the span of less than half a year, Podkolzine had risen from obscurity practicing (not playing) in Varese, Italy to a potential high lottery pick in the 2003 NBA Draft. In December of 2002, only one NBA team had even seen him play. After an Insider report in late December, the number had swelled to 18 by early May.

But it wasn't until Podkolzine's surprising workout in front of more than 100 NBA scouts and GMs in Chicago that Podkolzine finally started to believe that his dream of playing in the NBA was going to come true. Then it disappeared just as quickly. Acromegaly can be fatal if not treated in time. Scared and exhausted, Pavel went back into to Italy, his future still very uncertain.

The past six months of Podkolzine's life have gone relatively untold. He returned to Italy and began therapy to begin treating his overactive pituitary gland. The treatment, a series of shots that essentially turn off the pituitary, was a success according to Podkolzine's agent, Justin Zanick, and Podkolzine returned to his team in Varese with a determination to begin anew his quest for the NBA.

The road has been rocky. A new head coach in Varese didn't like the unwanted attention Pavel had brought to the team. Pavel sat. He watched. He practiced when he could. But for the most part, he just sat.

"It was very frustrating," Pavel told Insider. "I know I have so much to work on, to get ready, but no opportunity."

In December, however, things began to turn around. The head coach of Varese was fired, a new assistant coach who had taken a liking to Pavel took over the reigns and slowly Pavel began to resume his professional basketball career. Lately he's been averaging 15 to 20 minutes a game and has made a significant impact on the court.

"He is working so hard," advisor and former coach Gianni Chipparo told Insider. "He practices three and four hours every day. Now he gets attention from the coach and other players. They are making him tougher and stronger. He is learning. He has good days and bad days, but now more good than bad."

Over the past six weeks, scouts and teammates alike claim that the Pavel's progress has been enormous.

"I think GMs that have written him off are working on bad information," one international scout told Insider. "I saw Pavel play last week and he looked 100 times better than he looked last summer when many felt he'd be a lottery pick in the draft. Last year he was a prospect. Period. This year he's becoming a player. He's affecting games. He's learning how to play defense and use his size to his advantage on offense. The difference is night and day. I think everyone's still a bit wary about the medical thing. But if he really is cured, he'll go high."

Another scout claims that Pavel's inside game is starting to blossom. "He still has his good games and his bad games, but there's major improvements. Last year the kid had no idea he was 7-foot-5. He hung around the perimeter and wanted to do crossovers. This year he's in the paint, grinding it out. That's the biggest difference. And it's a huge one."

Pavel's teammate, former NBA player Tyrone Nesby, agrees. "He's turning into a hell of a player," Nesby told Insider via phone from Italy. "When I first got here, I could see that he really didn't know how to play. He's come such a long way. Now he gets in to the groove. He's not hacking everyone up. He's getting tougher and just getting a feel for it. He's going to be really good."

Judging the International Men of Mystery
What does "really good" translate into when measuring international prospects? That's a question that GMs and scouts are still wrestling with. Following a trend that began in America in 1996, international prospects are getting younger by the day. Most of them would be either college freshmen or high school seniors or juniors if they played in the U.S. Many of them do not see regular playing time on their team. A couple of prospects haven't even made it to their senior team yet. A few more are so closely guarded that few scouts have even seen them practice.

Two years ago, players like Nikoloz Tskitishvili were the exception. Now they're the norm.

When you factor in murky contract situations, and conflicting information on a player's status for the draft, discerning the top international prospects for the 2004 NBA Draft can be maddening.

You think Pavel is tough to evaluate? At least he has an NBA buyout in place that assures a team willing to draft him that it can have him this year. There are no such guarantees for top prospects like Tiago Splitter, Kosta Perovic, Peja Samardzski and Sergei Monya. All of these players have long-term contracts with their team and none of them have NBA buyouts. That can be a problem, especially with the escalating prices to get kids in the NBA.

Darko Milicic's buyout was kept secret by the team and his agent, but several NBA sources believe it fell in the three to four million dollar range. Yao Ming's buyout topped that. As international teams see what players and their agents are willing to pay to get them out, their expectations can spiral out of control.

Speaking of expectations, the players themselves (and their parents) are also over anxious to get to the NBA. They see a player like Maciej Lampe or Alexsandar Pavlovic make the jump and say to their agent, "If he can make it, why not me?" Given the low pay, poor economic situations of their families and sometimes brutal working conditions many of them play under, making the NBA becomes an obsession. That can lead to bad decisions that ultimately lead a potential lottery prospect to slip into the second round.

Even with all of the pitfalls, reservations and hedging going on, the 2004 NBA Draft is shaping up to be another international affair. Conservative guesses by several NBA GMs and directors of player personnel put the potential number of international players taken in the first round this year at between eight and 10 players. A few more optimistic folks believe that, with the weakness of this year's college class, there could be 12 to 15. So much for backlash.

Who's in, who's out and who's on the fence? Insider spent the last month talking to trusted NBA international scouts, coaches and player agents trying to get a handle on what this field will look like. Things are likely to change as we get closer to the draft. Agents are actively working on buyouts as we speak -- probably the biggest factor in determining whether a player actually declares and stays in the draft this year. And the number of international players taken will, of course, be affected by the number of college underclassmen and high school seniors who declare. Until then, here's a rough sketch of what we found out.

continued..................
:)
 
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