Keim Time to Shine or Fade

[Harry]

If you looked at the list previously posted of Keim’s draft history I doubt it filled you with confidence. The issues surrounding pick 1 seem quite clear. Keim can choose to take a certain improvement, selecting between high impact defensive players who have extremely low bust potential. The other option is to appease the new coach and select a talented QB with a high upside but also with a big risk factor. I partially measure draft picks by the gap between their potential and their draft risk. I make that to be a wide factor between the defensive players than I see with the QB.

I keep coming back to a simple conclusion. Add a defensive impact player to the current unit and you have a competitive team for the majority of the schedule for years to come. The QB would be more fun but not necessarily a likely winner. I want to win. The offense will take a couple of years at least and I believe there’s a reasonable chance Rosen can handle a solid offense with decent personnel. We certainly don’t know he can't. Rosen was a top rung prospect, graded highly by most scouts. To toss him aside, take a cap hit and pass on a Pro Bowl player makes little sense to me. I don’t care if they win 17-14, I’ll take it.

Many want to tell me that the league rules are favoring offenses. Hopefully the Super Bowl made it clear that a great defense can still dominate a game. I believe more in the defensive potential than in KK’s vision of a stunning offense. That offense wasn’t good enough to win for KK in college. I’m not opposed to the Cards taking a chance that KK’s offense can be effective with the right personnel but if it requires a QB with more potential than Rosen they better hope Murray is it and that he plays 16 games annually.

 

[oaken1]

If it requires a better qb than Rosen then the system suxx ass.

 

[Jetstream Green]

If you looked at the list previously posted of Keim’s draft history I doubt it filled you with confidence. The issues surrounding pick 1 seem quite clear. Keim can choose to take a certain improvement, selecting between high impact defensive players who have extremely low bust potential. The other option is to appease the new coach and select a talented QB with a high upside but also with a big risk factor. I partially measure draft picks by the gap between their potential and their draft risk. I make that to be a wide factor between the defensive players than I see with the QB.

I keep coming back to a simple conclusion. Add a defensive impact player to the current unit and you have a competitive team for the majority of the schedule for years to come. The QB would be more fun but not necessarily a likely winner. I want to win. The offense will take a couple of years at least and I believe there’s a reasonable chance Rosen can handle a solid offense with decent personnel. We certainly don’t know he can't. Rosen was a top rung prospect, graded highly by most scouts. To toss him aside, take a cap hit and pass on a Pro Bowl player makes little sense to me. I don’t care if they win 17-14, I’ll take it.

Many want to tell me that the league rules are favoring offenses. Hopefully the Super Bowl made it clear that a great defense can still dominate a game. I believe more in the defensive potential than in KK’s vision of a stunning offense. That offense wasn’t good enough to win for KK in college. I’m not opposed to the Cards taking a chance that KK’s offense can be effective with the right personnel but if it requires a QB with more potential than Rosen they better hope Murray is it and that he plays 16 games annually.

That offense in college was averaging like over 35 points a game, again Texas Tech is unable to field the talent from the state of Texas or let alone the nation to compete. It's a catch 22 since it's the brilliant offense which makes one expect unrealistic expectations on a defense with no top recruits. I look at the playoff over all and the Patriots are a outlier of excellence

 

[BW52]

That offense in college was averaging like over 35 points a game, again Texas Tech is unable to field the talent from the state of Texas or let alone the nation to compete. It's a catch 22 since it's the brilliant offense which makes one expect unrealistic expectations on a defense with no top recruits. I look at the playoff over all and the Patriots are a outlier of excellence

So you think that trying to outshoot the other team is a better formula for success than building a better defense and playing regular offense.I have doubt's about the "chuck and duck" offense being more than a flash in the pan.There hasn't been a offense that hasn't been seen by the NFL and there has in been a offense ever made that can't be schemed against.

 

[Jetstream Green]

So you think that trying to outshoot the other team is a better formula for success than building a better defense and playing regular offense.I have doubt's about the "chuck and duck" offense being more than a flash in the pan.There hasn't been a offense that hasn't been seen by the NFL and there has in been a offense ever made that can't be schemed against.

No, you totally miss the point which is it did not matter how much points you score if you do not have talent on the defense. It's a lot easier to attain talent in the NFL than being at Texas Tech and recruit

 

[Yuma]

I agree on the general premise @Harry is touting that defense wins championships. However, the offense last year was more than anemic. That's why they are taking such a leap with Kingsbury. The big secret is Rosen the guy to run this offense? If so, yeah you have to take DL. If not, then you have to give Kingsbury his QB to jumpstart an offense that was one of the historically worst NFL offenses. I am not sold on Murray OR Rosen! SO yeah I want DL. However, something drastic needs to be done for this offense.

 

[BW52]

No, you totally miss the point which is it did not matter how much points you score if you do not have talent on the defense. It's a lot easier to attain talent in the NFL than being at Texas Tech and recruit

No I didn`t miss the point.i realized Tech was always behind the other Texas schools recruiting.You missed my point... I think the chuck and Duck will not be a sustainable offense for longterm success.Gimmick offenses might shine for a short while but someone will figure out a scheme to negate or slow it down.Being a copycat league once some team shuts the chuck & duck down every other team will copy that formula and the offense will be forced to evolve again.Acting like the AIR raid offense is going to be new and revolutionary is bad thinking IMO.Its been tried before.

 

[Jetstream Green]

No I didn`t miss the point.i realized Tech was always behind the other Texas schools recruiting.You missed my point... I think the chuck and Duck will not be a sustainable offense for longterm success.Gimmick offenses might shine for a short while but someone will figure out a scheme to negate or slow it down.Being a copycat league once some team shuts the chuck & duck down every other team will copy that formula and the offense will be forced to evolve again.Acting like the AIR raid offense is going to be new and revolutionary is bad thinking IMO.Its been tried before.

My belief is Kingsbury is an offensive mind which will implement a style which might incorporate aspects of the Air Raid, but even him will adjust to a more moderate approach as with the hire of Clements to accomplish the expected bumps in the road of that transition. I did not miss your point because I did not post on this with intent to argue an offense will win the day but that it's unfair to say he is a losing coach because of a defensive question of talent. By the way, saying an offensive mind should mean an innovator which also means he is not grounded in one approach but finds solutions... if not, then you are right lol

 

[BW52]

My belief is Kingsbury is an offensive mind which will implement a style which might incorporate aspects of the Air Raid, but even him will adjust to a more moderate approach as with the hire of Clements to accomplish the expected bumps in the road of that transition. I did not miss your point because I did not post on this with intent to argue an offense will win the day but that it's unfair to say he is a losing coach because of a defensive question of talent. By the way, saying an offensive mind should mean an innovator which also means he is not grounded in one approach but finds solutions... if not, then you are right lol

Not a problem.Not meant to be a arguemnt.Just
we all know the NFl is mostly a copycat league.If it works other teams will try it and at the same time more teams will be working on defenses to stop it.I hope it works but I have doubts.

 

[Jetstream Green]

Not a problem.Not meant to be a arguemnt.Just
we all know the NFl is mostly a copycat league.If it works other teams will try it and at the same time more teams will be working on defenses to stop it.I hope it works but I have doubts.

I just hope the innovations happen and evolve much like Don Coryell when he entered the league and I think looking around the league they already are and a guy like Kingsbury can find the next variables to push the proverbial envelope so to speak

 

[WildBB]

At the same time Harry, the reason many defenses are successful is that the offense puts so much pressure on opposing teams' offense to keep up with them. It forces them largely to air it out most of the time and the D can just pin back its ears and come at you. Here are the top 22 QB's in the league last year. Only 5 didn't qualify for the postseason and they had a myriad of issues not just missing one key player.
Only the Giants, Oakland, Denver, Detroit, and Clevland failed to make the postseason. And Clevland was the most improved due to Mayfield. And let's face the fact there is only one Bill Belechek in this league. He's somone special in preparing his squad. Goff was like a deer in the headlights.


1 Ben Roethlisberger PIT---QB 452 675 67.0 42.2 5,129 7.6 320.6 34 16 248 36.7 97T 61 16 24 96.5
2 Patrick Mahomes KC------QB 383 580 66.0 36.2 5,097 8.8 318.6 50 12 237 40.9 89T 75 15 26 113.8
3 Matt Ryan ATL-------------QB 422 608 69.4 38.0 4,924 8.1 307.8 35 7 236 38.8 75T 56 9 42 108.1
4 Jared Goff LA---------------QB 364 561 64.9 35.1 4,688 8.4 293.0 32 12 233 41.5 70T 69 9 33 101.1
5 Andrew Luck IND ---------QB 430 639 67.3 39.9 4,593 7.2 287.1 39 15 236 36.9 68T 53 7 18 98.7
6 Aaron Rodgers GB --------QB 372 597 62.3 37.3 4,442 7.4 277.6 25 2 200 33.5 75T 55 16 49 97.6
7 Tom Brady NE --------------QB 375 570 65.8 35.6 4,355 7.6 272.2 29 11 205 36.0 63T 53 8 21 97.7
8 Philip Rivers LAC ----------QB 347 508 68.3 31.8 4,308 8.5 269.2 32 12 213 41.9 75T 60 10 32 105.5
9 Eli Manning NYG -----------QB 380 576 66.0 36.0 4,299 7.5 268.7 21 11 206 35.8 58 57 10 47 92.4
10 Kirk Cousins MIN ---------QB 425 606 70.1 37.9 4,298 7.1 268.6 30 10 218 36.0 75T 47 7 40 99.7
11 Deshaun Watson HOU ---QB 345 505 68.3 31.6 4,165 8.2 260.3 26 9 202 40.0 73T 51 8 62 103.1
12 Derek Carr OAK -----------QB 381 553 68.9 34.6 4,049 7.3 253.1 19 10 197 35.6 66 52 7 51 93.9
13 Drew Brees NO ------------QB 364 489 74.4 32.6 3,992 8.2 266.1 32 5 199 40.7 72T 58 6 17 115.7
14 Case Keenum DEN --------QB 365 586 62.3 36.6 3,890 6.6 243.1 18 15 179 30.5 64T 52 11 34 81.2
15 Dak Prescott DAL ---------QB 356 526 67.7 32.9 3,885 7.4 242.8 22 8 184 35.0 90T 39 9 56 96.9
16 Matthew Stafford DET ----QB 367 555 66.1 34.7 3,777 6.8 236.1 21 11 198 35.7 67 44 6 40 89.9
17 Baker Mayfield CLE --------QB 310 486 63.8 34.7 3,725 7.7 266.1 27 14 171 35.2 71 52 9 25 93.7
18 Russell Wilson SEA --------QB 280 427 65.6 26.7 3,448 8.1 215.5 35 7 156 36.5 66 47 13 51 110.9
19 Cam Newton CAR ----------QB 320 471 67.9 33.6 3,395 7.2 242.5 24 13 180 38.2 82 44 3 29 94.2
20 Mitchell Trubisky CHI -----QB 289 434 66.6 31.0 3,223 7.4 230.2 24 12 151 34.8 70T 40 10 24 95.4
21 Carson Wentz PHI ---------QB 279 401 69.6 36.5 3,074 7.7 279.5 21 7 159 39.7 58 37 5 31 102.2
22 Jameis Winston TB --------QB 244 378 64.6 34.4 2,992 7.9 272.0 19 14 152 40.2 64 34 6 27 90.2

 

[Yuma]

I just hope the innovations happen and evolve much like Don Coryell when he entered the league and I think looking around the league they already are and a guy like Kingsbury can find the next variables to push the proverbial envelope so to speak

They ran almost the same offense at UNR when I was in Reno, and they were able to put up record numbers RUNNING the ball, even when they had Colin Kaepernick. I know tacklers are better and faster in the pros, but I thought it was interesting that the offense is built for quick passes, but the running game was prolific too! Maybe why the rumors we are looking at RBs this draft class to add to what we have.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

If it requires a better qb than Rosen then the system suxx ass.

All objective and unbiased stats show that Rosen had one of the worst rookie seasons in recent history. It is FAR from being certain that Rosen will turn out to be a good QB.

 

[Yuma]

All objective and unbiased stats show that Rosen had one of the worst rookie seasons in recent history. It is FAR from being certain that Rosen will turn out to be a good QB.

I agree. I didn't see anything last year that makes me certain about Rosen. However, our OL was HORRIBLE! Plus I did see Rosen miss guys that were open on plays. If we do go Murray, I would not be surprised if we keep Rosen if no one offers us anything good.

 

[oaken1]

All objective and unbiased stats show that Rosen had one of the worst rookie seasons in recent history. It is FAR from being certain that Rosen will turn out to be a good QB.

he is better than Davis Webb...and Webb thrived in KK's system

if he can make webb look good enough to be drafted he can make Josh look good enough for a couple pro bowls.

if not, the system suxx and wont stick in the NFL

 

[dreamcastrocks]

he is better than Davis Webb...and Webb thrived in KK's system

if he can make webb look good enough to be drafted he can make Josh look good enough for a couple pro bowls.

if not, the system suxx and wont stick in the NFL

Davis Webb thrived in college. He hasn't in the NFL.

 

[Yuma]

Davis Webb thrived in college. He hasn't in the NFL.

I think you make his point.