Laker pick odds

[elindholm]

In case anyone is curious, here are the chances for the Suns getting the Lakers' first-round pick this summer. The Lakers keep it if it winds up in the top five.

If the Lakers finish with the #1 or #2 lottery seed, 100% chance they keep it.
If they finish with the #3 seed, 96% they keep it, 4% to Phoenix.
#4, 83% LAL, 17% PHO.
#5, 56% LAL, 44% PHO.
#6, 22% LAL, 78% PHO.
#7, 15% LAL, 85% PHO.
#8, 10% LAL, 90% PHO.

Let's hope that's enough...

 

[Errntknght]

Thanks for the info, Eric. A bit better than I'd have guessed.

 

[sunsfan88]

Kobe Bryant suffered a right shoulder injury in the second half of the Los Angeles Lakers' game against the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday.

Preliminary results from the MRI reveal that Bryant has sustained a tear of the rotator cuff.

Bryant will be examined by Lakers doctors on Friday.

You must be registered for see images

 

[Suns_fan69]

Haha, perfect gif.

 

[Suns_fan69]

Actually, not too long ago there were some stats showing that the Lakers were a much better team with Bryant off court than with him on. This might end up being a good thing!

I think this was before he started missing sporadic games though.

 

[Lefty]

If the Lakers finish in the last five this year, is their draft pick for the Suns in 2016 protected at all?

 

[Absolute Zero]

Actually, not too long ago there were some stats showing that the Lakers were a much better team with Bryant off court than with him on. This might end up being a good thing!

I think this was before he started missing sporadic games though.

You are right, they are better without him. This helps us.

 

[Errntknght]

You are right, they are better without him. This helps us.

I'm going with that, too!

 

[Mainstreet]

If the Lakers finish in the last five this year, is their draft pick for the Suns in 2016 protected at all?

The Lakers pick is protected top five in 2015. It is then top three protected in 2016 thru 2017 and then unprotected in 2018. I have a link with the protection on the Lakers pick.

http://www.prosportstransactions.com/basketball/DraftTrades/Future/Lakers.htm

 

[slinslin]

I hope we get the pick this year because I have serious mancrush on Stanley Johnson.

Lakers are likely going to finish #4 but maybe there is a chance that someone else will out-tank them moving them to at least #5 in which case the odds are still ok for us.

7 wins New York ( 2-8 in last 10)
7 wins Minny ( 2-8 in last 10)
8 wins Philly ( 4-6 in last 10)
12 wins Lakers ( 2-8 in last 10)
14 wins Boston ( 3-7 in last 10)
15 wins Utah ( 4-6 in last 10)
15 wins Orlando ( 2-8 in last 10)
15 wins Pacers ( 2-8 in last 10)

 

[AzStevenCal]

I hope we get the pick this year because I have serious mancrush on Stanley Johnson.

Lakers are likely going to finish #4 but maybe there is a chance that someone else will out-tank them moving them to at least #5 in which case the odds are still ok for us.

7 wins New York ( 2-8 in last 10)
7 wins Minny ( 2-8 in last 10)
8 wins Philly ( 4-6 in last 10)
12 wins Lakers ( 2-8 in last 10)
14 wins Boston ( 3-7 in last 10)
15 wins Utah ( 4-6 in last 10)
15 wins Orlando ( 2-8 in last 10)
15 wins Pacers ( 2-8 in last 10)

Two things. First off, he won't be there at 6. Secondly, what's not to like? Seriously. This guy is seriously good. Two way wing player that absorbs contact.

Steve

 

[slinslin]

But he realistically will be there at #4 and having #6 will make it much easier to get #4

Karl Towns
Jahlil Okafor

should be locks to go before Stanley Johnson.

#3 to#7 could go in any order between Russell, Mudiay, Johnson and maybe Hezonja/Oubre/Random Hot Prospect

 

[hcsilla]

I really don't see why Russell is such a hot prospect.

He seems a bit better shooting version of Greivis Vazquez.

Right now, it would be a huge surprise if he would get selected before Stanley Johnson.

I can see Okafor, Towns, Mudiay and even Porzingis ahead of Johnson. Others, not really.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Protected picks should be "pre-lottery" protection, IMO. In fact, I think the NBA should ban all protection on traded picks.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I'm thinking we ain't getting that pick, but next year we will. That Lakers team is AWFUL. If they finish bottom four, that means two teams have to win the lotto. Big odds there.

 

[Phrazbit]

While I think the Lakers play better without Kobe, I also think they're much more likely to openly tank and make deliberately non-competitive moves now that he is out.

We still have a chance to get the pick, because they are not finishing with one of the worst 3 records, I don't see any way they can fall behind NY, Minny or Philly, but its going to take some lotto luck... which would be a first for this franchise.

 

[AzStevenCal]

While I think the Lakers play better without Kobe, I also think they're much more likely to openly tank and make deliberately non-competitive moves now that he is out.

We still have a chance to get the pick, because they are not finishing with one of the worst 3 records, I don't see any way they can fall behind NY, Minny or Philly, but its going to take some lotto luck... which would be a first for this franchise.

Agreed. With Kobe they could at least draw in the audience that cherishes him. With him gone, they just aren't going to have the numbers they'd hoped for. Given that, it makes sense to look more to the future.

Steve

 

[elindholm]

In fact, I think the NBA should ban all protection on traded picks.

Why? If two teams agree to a deal, it means they're each satisfied with the terms.

 

[Phrazbit]

Why? If two teams agree to a deal, it means they're each satisfied with the terms.

The tweek I would like the NBA to make is take out the twist of lotto luck. Teams can put protection on picks, but that protection is based on their final standing at the end of the year. You trade away a pick that's top 5 protected and finish 6th? That pick is gone, even if it wins the lotto. And its not just selfishness with the Laker situation that makes me say that (and I think an altered rule would be more likely to cost us a chance at the pick this year). The spirit of protecting picks is based on protecting a team from being horrible AND losing the pick, not based on protecting them from missing out on a stroke of good luck.

 

[elindholm]

The spirit of protecting picks is based on protecting a team from being horrible AND losing the pick, not based on protecting them from missing out on a stroke of good luck.

Says you. Maybe the spirit is to establish an upper bound on the value of the pick that is owed.

The "luck" factor doesn't bother me. Any trade for future assets involves a ton of unknowns, only some of which it's possible to make educated guesses about. It's true that the draft lottery is pure luck, which I guess places it in a different category. But it's still true that a team acquiring a protected pick knows the rules and knows the likelihood of what they'll get. No one's forcing them to accept the trade conditions that are offered.

 

[sunsfan88]

Agreed. With Kobe they could at least draw in the audience that cherishes him. With him gone, they just aren't going to have the numbers they'd hoped for. Given that, it makes sense to look more to the future.

Steve

Jeanie Buss sounds like she'd rather the Lakers not tank yet and get the whole "giving the pick to the Suns" thing out of the way as soon as possible so its clouding over their future drafts.

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports....-doesnt-see-the-logic-in-tanking-this-season/

 

[Mainstreet]

Protected picks should be "pre-lottery" protection, IMO. In fact, I think the NBA should ban all protection on traded picks.

I agree, protection on on traded picks should be removed to prevent teams from manipulating the pick when they have a bad season and they decide they want to keep the protected pick that was traded. IMO, it is just another form of tanking. Also a traded first round pick should not be allowed to turn into second round picks. It also promotes a form of tanking to keep the first round pick from transferring.