Let's Talk Stats (and some post Vikings thoughts)

[Treefiddy]

Specifically around Time of Possession, and Total Yardage.

Cardinals are 31st in Total Offensive Yards, 30th in Total Defensive Yards, and 32nd in Time of Possession.

I went through each team's total yardage and divided their total offensive yards by their total defensive yards (full list at the bottom). The higher the result, the better. If a team scored 1.5, then for every 1.5 yards they gained, they gave up only 1 yard. The same holds true for teams that scored a .75; for every .75 yards they gained, they gave up 1 yard. For the sake of simplicity in this post, I'll refer to this as the Yardage Differential.

Unfortunately, along with Time of Possession, the Cardinals are also on the bottom of this list.

How important are these stats?

Teams above 30:00 ToP are 88-66 (57.14%)
Teams below 30:00 ToP are 41-63 (39.42%)

Teams above 1.00 Yardage Differential are 72-60 (54.55%)
Teams below 1.00 Yardage Differential are 57-69 (45.24%)

The top and bottom 3 teams in Yardage Differential are:

NY Giants (401.0 / 250.6) 1.600 (6-2)
San Diego (420.2 / 274.7) 1.530 (4-5)
New Orleans (369.9 / 277.0) 1.335 (6-3)

Carolina (244.4 / 315.0) 0.776 (1-7)
Seattle (261.2 / 383.1) 0.682 (4-4)
Arizona (256.0 / 390.8) 0.655 (3-5)

This represents the NFL's 1st, 2nd, and 4th best teams, and the three worst teams in Time of Possession.

Going strictly from these numbers, San Diego, despite their record; is one of the toughest teams in the NFL this year; while the Cardinals are one of the weakest teams.

The Cardinals Defense looks extremely bad this year, but they are also on the field the most out of any other team. It's difficult for a defense to stay strong for more than 30 minutes of game time. Keep in mind, that when the Cardinals defense hit that 30 minute mark yesterday, it was still 24-10 and they were able to stop Minnesota's drive on 4th and 1. The offense needs to step it up and keep the defense off the field if we want to win games. Otherwise, we're going to be in for some more last minute heroics from other teams.

You can look at yesterday's loss a couple of different ways, but my thought is that Favre didn't create a win, the Cardinals offense failed to drain the clock.

NY Giants    (401.0 / 250.6) 1.600 (6-2)
San Diego    (420.2 / 274.7) 1.530 (4-5)
New Orleans  (369.9 / 277.0) 1.335 (6-3)
Philadelphia (376.2 / 318.8) 1.180 (5-3)
Oakland      (361.0 / 309.6) 1.166 (5-4)
Minnesota    (353.5 / 304.6) 1.161 (3-5)
Indianapolis (394.8 / 344.6) 1.146 (5-3)
NY Jets      (350.2 / 307.1) 1.140 (6-2)
Baltimore    (348.0 / 310.8) 1.120 (6-2)
Atlanta      (370.1 / 346.4) 1.068 (6-2)
Dallas       (359.2 / 338.2) 1.062 (1-7)
Green Bay    (344.7 / 326.0) 1.057 (6-3)
Kansas City  (348.5 / 331.2) 1.052 (5-3)
Miami        (336.9 / 321.0) 1.050 (4-4)
Cincinnati   (355.4 / 342.0) 1.039 (2-5)
Pittsburgh   (297.6 / 302.0) 0.985 (5-1)
St Louis     (302.6 / 313.9) 0.964 (4-4)
Tampa Bay    (316.2 / 360.5) 0.877 (5-3)
Jacksonville (311.8 / 386.2) 0.807 (4-4)
-----------ToP Break Line-------------
Denver       (363.5 / 359.0) 1.012 (2-6)
San Fran     (315.9 / 331.4) 0.953 (2-6)
Chicago      (289.5 / 309.6) 0.935 (5-3)
Houston      (370.1 / 399.5) 0.926 (4-4)
Detroit      (329.5 / 361.1) 0.912 (2-6)
Tennessee    (310.6 / 344.1) 0.903 (5-3)
Cleveland    (306.0 / 346.4) 0.883 (3-5)
New England  (324.4 / 386.5) 0.839 (6-2)
Washington   (325.5 / 393.2) 0.828 (4-4)
Buffalo      (304.6 / 371.6) 0.820 (0-8)
Carolina     (244.4 / 315.0) 0.776 (1-7)
Seattle      (261.2 / 383.1) 0.682 (4-4)
Arizona      (256.0 / 390.8) 0.655 (3-5)

Isn't the point of the code tag to hold correct spacing? It looks fantastic in notepad.

 

[Cardiac]

I'm not nearly the data miner you are but I did notice that our D is just about the worst in giving up 1st downs. Some of that is due to the TO's from the O but it is still rather telling.

The Steelers have the fewest 1st downs as an O in the NFL, their D seems to handle that okay.

 

[Treefiddy]

I'm not nearly the data miner you are but I did notice that our D is just about the worst in giving up 1st downs. Some of that is due to the TO's from the O but it is still rather telling.

The Steelers have the fewest 1st downs as an O in the NFL, their D seems to handle that okay.

I think you've unlocked something as first downs are a big one as well. We're ranked 28 in first downs per game (13th last year). We're also ranked 31st in total plays (23rd last year).

Our average ToP is 26:00 this year. Last year it was 29:36.
Our average first downs per game is 15.6. Last year it was 20.1.
Our average plays per game is 55.9. Last year it was 60.8.

Using these numbers, if we could just get 1 more first down per game, then we could burn off another 1:30 off the clock. At that point we'd still be in a bad spot, but at least we'd have a much better chance. If we could half the difference between last year and now, we'd put ourselves into a much better position to win.

It's easy to look at yards against and points against and blame the defense for our troubles, but our defense isn't doing that bad. Without defensive or special teams touchdowns; the Cardinals would currently be 1-7 only beating the Rams in game 1. Granted, this really only shows that we have a defense who is good at returning their turnovers; but it does highlight the ineptitude of our offense this year. We're not creating first downs, we're not maintaining ball possession, and we're not scoring.

Here's the stats for this year:

Wins:
17 first downs -- 28:03 ToP

Losses:
13.8 first downs -- 24:46 ToP

Full Season 2010:
26:00 Average ToP
15.6 Average First Downs
55.9 Average Plays
3.58 Plays per First Down
27.91 Seconds per Play

 

[Duckjake]

Question:

We have 7 returns for TDs by our defense and special teams. The Steelers for comparison have 2.

How much effect has that had on our TOP and total yardage stats? For example the other team has the ball for 3 minutes, fumble and we return it for a TD. Then they get the ball back for another 3 minutes. So we get no opportunity to gain any yards or control the clock on offense.

Considering we're getting a return a game almost couldn't it easily equal 3 minutes TOP per game???

 

[Treefiddy]

Question:

We have 7 returns for TDs by our defense and special teams. The Steelers for comparison have 2.

How much effect has that had on our TOP and total yardage stats? For example the other team has the ball for 3 minutes, fumble and we return it for a TD. Then they get the ball back for another 3 minutes. So we get no opportunity to gain any yards or control the clock on offense.

Considering we're getting a return a game almost couldn't it easily equal 3 minutes TOP per game???

Sortof yes. We're averaging 12 possessions per game (counting drive start for AZ, so Kickoff return TDs are included) and our average possession time is around the 2:10 mark. Not related, we're scoring on 23% of our possessions.

So yes, that would probably give us more time, but that doesn't excuse our poor ToP. The Steelers ToP is over 4 minutes better than ours. Like I stated earlier, just 1 more first down per game would put us in a much better position to win. It would have sealed the victory against Minnesota, it would have prevented Sea-Bass from having to shank a kick for us to win. It would have sealed the win against Tampa.

Obviously hind sight is 20-20, but getting that extra 90 seconds of possession per game will make a big difference. Be that on our last drive when we're trying to eat clock, or when that first down is the difference between a punt and a field goal or touchdown.

 

[JeffGollin]

The main reasons I wouldn't get too all caught up in stats is the team's inconsistency and the "work in progress" status at many of its roster positions.

In many ways, this is a Jeckyl and Hyde team that can stuff the run one week and allow 200 yards the next. Or shut down a key receiver one week and then get super-humiliated the next. Or cut down on sacks one week and then give up 6 the next.

Plus - especially at the QB position (the birth place of many stats) - we've gone back and forth between Hall and Anderson, and only now are beginning to see some glimpses of coordination between QB and key receivers (with Fitz having a slight headstart over Breaston and Doucet who have recently come off injuries and the various rooks - Komar, Williams and Roberts only just beginning to learn the nuances of the position).

Stats tend to be used mainly as predictors of things to come. With the inconsistencies and uncertainties surrounding this football team, I'm just not that sure that many stats we come up with accurately will forecast very much in the way of meaningful information.

 

[Cardiac]

I think you've unlocked something as first downs are a big one as well. We're ranked 28 in first downs per game (13th last year). We're also ranked 31st in total plays (23rd last year).

Our average ToP is 26:00 this year. Last year it was 29:36.
Our average first downs per game is 15.6. Last year it was 20.1.
Our average plays per game is 55.9. Last year it was 60.8.

Using these numbers, if we could just get 1 more first down per game, then we could burn off another 1:30 off the clock. At that point we'd still be in a bad spot, but at least we'd have a much better chance. If we could half the difference between last year and now, we'd put ourselves into a much better position to win.

It's easy to look at yards against and points against and blame the defense for our troubles, but our defense isn't doing that bad. Without defensive or special teams touchdowns; the Cardinals would currently be 1-7 only beating the Rams in game 1. Granted, this really only shows that we have a defense who is good at returning their turnovers; but it does highlight the ineptitude of our offense this year. We're not creating first downs, we're not maintaining ball possession, and we're not scoring.

Here's the stats for this year:

Wins:
17 first downs -- 28:03 ToP

Losses:
13.8 first downs -- 24:46 ToP

Full Season 2010:
26:00 Average ToP
15.6 Average First Downs
55.9 Average Plays
3.58 Plays per First Down
27.91 Seconds per Play

All good stuff but it doesn't answer why the Steelers D isn't getting hammered due to a pitiful offense (to start the year).

I also contend that if the D did force more 3 and outs the O would get more opportunities which should help with the development of continuity between QB and WRs and the O-line.

The D absolutely won the Saints game for us. They did an admirable job against the Raiders with all the muffed punts and TO's. Same thing with the Seahawks game. What I'm saying is that I'm not blaming the D for all of our woes but they have played a part in some of our losses.

 

[Duckjake]

All good stuff but it doesn't answer why the Steelers D isn't getting hammered due to a pitiful offense (to start the year).

That is because a defense having trouble because of a poor offense is a myth.

Unless your offense is turning the ball over inside their own 10 yard line 5 times a game.

Even then the 2000 Ravens D would have held the other team to FGs.

 

[Vermont Maverick]

Good post.

In a funny way, all of our return TDs sort of hurt us in the long run, because it is more time that we don't run off the clock and the Defense has to trot back onto the field.

 

[Treefiddy]

All good stuff but it doesn't answer why the Steelers D isn't getting hammered due to a pitiful offense (to start the year).

The Steelers Defense is a lot better than ours. It has better skilled players who are more disciplined and from the looks of it, are just better conditioned to play beyond that 30 minute mark.

 

[Duckjake]

The Steelers Defense is a lot better than ours. It has better skilled players who are more disciplined and from the looks of it, are just better conditioned to play beyond that 30 minute mark.

That's what is really irritating Tree, that shouldn't be the situation at all.

 

[bg7brd]

The Steelers Defense is a lot better than ours. It has better skilled players who are more disciplined and from the looks of it, are just better conditioned to play beyond that 30 minute mark.

They can also get themselves off the field.

 

[JC_AZ]

The Steelers Defense is a lot better than ours. It has better skilled players who are more disciplined and from the looks of it, are just better conditioned to play beyond that 30 minute mark.

I am not sure it is totally related to conditioning when compared to the Steelers D, the Steelers O likely finds a way to stay ON the field for much longer periods of time (not total TOP) by avoiding strings of 3 and outs throughout the 3Q, this would kill any teams D in the 4Q...our OLine steps up and we have a whole different team on O and D... IMHO

 

[dogpoo32]

3.58 Plays per First Down

Does this mean our offense will go 3 and out more times than actually converting 1 first down per possession? Someone help me out I suck at math/life.

 

[THESMEL]

mr poo

Well that depends on the variety of the penalty we receive on the 1st -1st down of the drive. or the penalty we receive while receiving the punt or the penalty we can count on to destroy the best special teams plays I've seen in years, early in the game.

but on to the fat stat.
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/TSX/2010

Everson Griffin was ranked #30 overall in the 2010 draft.

We spent the better half of the Q trade picks to move up and get #42 Dwash earlier in the 2nd round than we were picking.

Everson Griffin was still on the board when we picked #113 Andre Roberts in the 3rd round.

I got flamed for frowning loudly, Whiz got famed for being so much smarter than a 5th grader.

We need olb's for the future and #30 ranked Everson Griffin helped the Vikings beat us last week after being picked at #100.

not only do I think this draft and all the moving up-around-over and under was stupid-risky when we needed to just be solid. I have proof of it!

Just look at us!

Does this mean our offense will go 3 and out more times than actually converting 1 first down per possession? Someone help me out I suck at math/life.

 

[Cardiac]

The Steelers Defense is a lot better than ours. It has better skilled players who are more disciplined and from the looks of it, are just better conditioned to play beyond that 30 minute mark.

Well that is kinda my point. We can't blame our O for all the lack of success from the D. I've seen a couple of posts lately that bring our players conditioning into question. Isn't that a indictment against Lott?