https://theathletic.com/1001788/201...and-brian-billick-weigh-in/?source=dailyemail
Some excerpts. I won't use quotes so just understand everything after is from the article.
In watching 172 offensive snaps from two Red Raiders games the past two seasons – their 41-17 victory over Oklahoma State last Sept. 22 and a 27-3 loss to Texas Christian on Nov. 18, 2017 – four conclusions can be drawn.
The Cardinals will operate out of the shotgun
Texas Tech was in shotgun formation 170 out of those 172 snaps, the only two times under center when it took a knee in the final seconds of the win over Oklahoma State. It’s likely, based on Kingsbury’s past, Murray’s stated affinity for the shotgun and recent Kingsbury comments, that Murray rarely will be under center.
“I’ve never seen disadvantages,” Kingsbury said at the NFL owners meetings in Phoenix. “Some people say there are. I don’t. … Some other people have theories about it, but I think you can do everything just as well from shotgun as you can under center.”
Kingsbury believes the shotgun formation helps a quarterback because he more quickly gets a clearer picture of the defense.
“Whereas when you’re under center, it takes a while to see the field and see that clear picture,” he said. “To me, you’re able to see it clearer pre-snap and post-snap.”
No-huddle doesn’t always mean fast
Texas Tech ranked fourth in the country last season with 82.6 plays per game but that doesn’t mean it ran a hurry-up offense every play. If the Red Raiders found a rhythm offensively or made a big play, they’d often rush to the line of scrimmage and get the snap off quickly, hoping to take advantage of a tired defense.
But there were also times when the ball wouldn’t be snapped until fewer than 10 seconds remained on the play clock. As his quarterback stood waiting, Kingsbury would read the defense, choose a play and then have it relayed to the QB.
The Cardinals will spread it out
Kingsbury wants to stress defenses by making them defend a wider portion of the field and his alignments at Texas Tech revealed how he might do that. The Red Raiders had at least three receivers on the field 162 of the 172 offensive snaps.
The complete breakdown: Three receivers (62 plays), four receivers (90), five receivers (10).
How often Kingsbury lines up with four receivers will be one of the more interesting things to watch. Teams used four-receiver sets less than 5 percent of the time in 2018 and the Cardinals, Houston Texans, Washington Redskins and Carolina Panthers didn’t employ the alignment once, according to Sportradar.
Spreading the defense out should give running back David Johnson more room to run. The shotgun formation also suits Johnson; Northern Iowa operated out of the gun when Johnson rushed for 1,553 yards as a senior and, of course, he had 2,118 total yards from scrimmage in 2018 when coach Bruce Arians went to the shotgun to give Carson Palmer more time to scan the field and throw.
“I think David Johnson is the key to the offense,” former Arizona State, Cardinals and Denver Broncos quarterback Jake Plummer said. “When you’re throwing it all the time and then you can pop him out on draws and some run plays there should be some big lanes for him to run. We’ve seen him be dynamic. Plus, they’ll create some mismatches for him when they go four- or five-wide.”
Johnson can’t wait to run in space after running into brick wall after brick wall last season.
“I think it’s going to be really helpful only having to worry about one guy tackling you compared to three or four guys,” he said. “Now we spread it out a little bit more and I think it’s going to be really helpful for our offense.”
The one drawback to operating out of four-receiver sets: It leaves the Cardinals exposed to edge rushers. Billick said teams likely will employ man-to-man press coverage against Arizona, betting its pass rush can get to Murray before he can throw the ball and, in turn, deliver punishment to the rookie quarterback.
“Usually in college, you have one good corner that can stay with a team’s No. 1 receiver,” he said. “You rarely have guys who can stay with the second, third, fourth or fifth receivers. In the NFL they can and that’s assuming you have five good receivers. They’ll make him hold it and get hits on the quarterback.”
Billick said Chip Kelly learned that lesson early in the preseason of his first year coaching the Philadelphia Eagles.
“His quarterbacks were getting blown up,” Billick said. “The league was saying, ‘No, no, you can’t do that.’ He had to alter some of the things he did.”
“You’re going to run across these issues when you spread it out like that,” Plummer added. “I think right off the bat defensive coordinators are going to send different looks to try to confuse Kyler Murray. “Look to bring pressure off one side then bring it from the other. If he’s confused and doesn’t get the ball out, you’re going to have chances to get him.”
Murray won’t hold onto the ball for long
Kingsbury seems to understand that in his wide-open offense, quarterbacks have to get rid of the ball quickly or risk suffering bodily damage. Of the 53 completions in the two Texas Tech games studied, 34 were for 10 yards or fewer. Often, Texas Tech’s QBs would take one step back and throw the ball, the short passing game essentially acting as an extension of the rushing attack.
There will be times, however, when Murray will have to drop back deep and throw the ball downfield. That’s when Kingsbury’s affinity to spread the field will be tested most.
“We’ve already seen some success with that spread Air Raid system,” Plummer said. “We know he’s (Murray) good at that. But it’s how he thrives on third and 12 where you can’t necessarily spread it out all the time and when you have to protect him and the defense is kicking your butt, that’s where it’s really going to count. That’s where it will matter.”
Arizona wide receiver Christian Kirk believes there’s a final, fifth conclusion, one he’s gleaned from the Cardinals’ offseason work: Kingsbury already is adjusting his offense to fit the NFL.
“This isn’t the offense he ran in college,” Kirk said. “I don’t believe that. I feel it’s more diverse. We’ve implemented a lot more NFL techniques and concepts and it’s kind of developed into its own thing. I don’t know really what to call it, but it is a (hybrid).”
The one conclusion that can’t be made? It’s the obvious one, of course.
Will it work? Will Kingsbury, Murray and the Cardinals create a “sea change,” as Billick put it?
“Maybe I’m old school but I’m not one that particularly believes we’re going to see a mass migration of college stuff into the NFL for a lot of reasons,” Billick said. “It doesn’t mean it can’t work. Obviously, if you get the right triggerman you can run anything and do well.
“We have seen the game spread out a bit, but look at the teams playing in the Super Bowl, for the championship. Until I see one of those (spread) teams playing there I’m going to reserve judgment.”
Plummer is more curious than skeptical.
“I’m intrigued by the fact they threw out a pretty damn good young quarterback (Josh Rosen) to bring in this young gunslinger,” Plummer said. “It’s all an experiment. But I like to see ownership, Michael Bidwill, Steve Keim, making these kinds of decisions. No longer follow the trends but start a trend in the NFL.
“It’s going to be fun to see how well this offense transfers to the next level.”
Some excerpts. I won't use quotes so just understand everything after is from the article.
In watching 172 offensive snaps from two Red Raiders games the past two seasons – their 41-17 victory over Oklahoma State last Sept. 22 and a 27-3 loss to Texas Christian on Nov. 18, 2017 – four conclusions can be drawn.
The Cardinals will operate out of the shotgun
Texas Tech was in shotgun formation 170 out of those 172 snaps, the only two times under center when it took a knee in the final seconds of the win over Oklahoma State. It’s likely, based on Kingsbury’s past, Murray’s stated affinity for the shotgun and recent Kingsbury comments, that Murray rarely will be under center.
“I’ve never seen disadvantages,” Kingsbury said at the NFL owners meetings in Phoenix. “Some people say there are. I don’t. … Some other people have theories about it, but I think you can do everything just as well from shotgun as you can under center.”
Kingsbury believes the shotgun formation helps a quarterback because he more quickly gets a clearer picture of the defense.
“Whereas when you’re under center, it takes a while to see the field and see that clear picture,” he said. “To me, you’re able to see it clearer pre-snap and post-snap.”
No-huddle doesn’t always mean fast
Texas Tech ranked fourth in the country last season with 82.6 plays per game but that doesn’t mean it ran a hurry-up offense every play. If the Red Raiders found a rhythm offensively or made a big play, they’d often rush to the line of scrimmage and get the snap off quickly, hoping to take advantage of a tired defense.
But there were also times when the ball wouldn’t be snapped until fewer than 10 seconds remained on the play clock. As his quarterback stood waiting, Kingsbury would read the defense, choose a play and then have it relayed to the QB.
The Cardinals will spread it out
Kingsbury wants to stress defenses by making them defend a wider portion of the field and his alignments at Texas Tech revealed how he might do that. The Red Raiders had at least three receivers on the field 162 of the 172 offensive snaps.
The complete breakdown: Three receivers (62 plays), four receivers (90), five receivers (10).
How often Kingsbury lines up with four receivers will be one of the more interesting things to watch. Teams used four-receiver sets less than 5 percent of the time in 2018 and the Cardinals, Houston Texans, Washington Redskins and Carolina Panthers didn’t employ the alignment once, according to Sportradar.
Spreading the defense out should give running back David Johnson more room to run. The shotgun formation also suits Johnson; Northern Iowa operated out of the gun when Johnson rushed for 1,553 yards as a senior and, of course, he had 2,118 total yards from scrimmage in 2018 when coach Bruce Arians went to the shotgun to give Carson Palmer more time to scan the field and throw.
“I think David Johnson is the key to the offense,” former Arizona State, Cardinals and Denver Broncos quarterback Jake Plummer said. “When you’re throwing it all the time and then you can pop him out on draws and some run plays there should be some big lanes for him to run. We’ve seen him be dynamic. Plus, they’ll create some mismatches for him when they go four- or five-wide.”
Johnson can’t wait to run in space after running into brick wall after brick wall last season.
“I think it’s going to be really helpful only having to worry about one guy tackling you compared to three or four guys,” he said. “Now we spread it out a little bit more and I think it’s going to be really helpful for our offense.”
The one drawback to operating out of four-receiver sets: It leaves the Cardinals exposed to edge rushers. Billick said teams likely will employ man-to-man press coverage against Arizona, betting its pass rush can get to Murray before he can throw the ball and, in turn, deliver punishment to the rookie quarterback.
“Usually in college, you have one good corner that can stay with a team’s No. 1 receiver,” he said. “You rarely have guys who can stay with the second, third, fourth or fifth receivers. In the NFL they can and that’s assuming you have five good receivers. They’ll make him hold it and get hits on the quarterback.”
Billick said Chip Kelly learned that lesson early in the preseason of his first year coaching the Philadelphia Eagles.
“His quarterbacks were getting blown up,” Billick said. “The league was saying, ‘No, no, you can’t do that.’ He had to alter some of the things he did.”
“You’re going to run across these issues when you spread it out like that,” Plummer added. “I think right off the bat defensive coordinators are going to send different looks to try to confuse Kyler Murray. “Look to bring pressure off one side then bring it from the other. If he’s confused and doesn’t get the ball out, you’re going to have chances to get him.”
Murray won’t hold onto the ball for long
Kingsbury seems to understand that in his wide-open offense, quarterbacks have to get rid of the ball quickly or risk suffering bodily damage. Of the 53 completions in the two Texas Tech games studied, 34 were for 10 yards or fewer. Often, Texas Tech’s QBs would take one step back and throw the ball, the short passing game essentially acting as an extension of the rushing attack.
There will be times, however, when Murray will have to drop back deep and throw the ball downfield. That’s when Kingsbury’s affinity to spread the field will be tested most.
“We’ve already seen some success with that spread Air Raid system,” Plummer said. “We know he’s (Murray) good at that. But it’s how he thrives on third and 12 where you can’t necessarily spread it out all the time and when you have to protect him and the defense is kicking your butt, that’s where it’s really going to count. That’s where it will matter.”
Arizona wide receiver Christian Kirk believes there’s a final, fifth conclusion, one he’s gleaned from the Cardinals’ offseason work: Kingsbury already is adjusting his offense to fit the NFL.
“This isn’t the offense he ran in college,” Kirk said. “I don’t believe that. I feel it’s more diverse. We’ve implemented a lot more NFL techniques and concepts and it’s kind of developed into its own thing. I don’t know really what to call it, but it is a (hybrid).”
The one conclusion that can’t be made? It’s the obvious one, of course.
Will it work? Will Kingsbury, Murray and the Cardinals create a “sea change,” as Billick put it?
“Maybe I’m old school but I’m not one that particularly believes we’re going to see a mass migration of college stuff into the NFL for a lot of reasons,” Billick said. “It doesn’t mean it can’t work. Obviously, if you get the right triggerman you can run anything and do well.
“We have seen the game spread out a bit, but look at the teams playing in the Super Bowl, for the championship. Until I see one of those (spread) teams playing there I’m going to reserve judgment.”
Plummer is more curious than skeptical.
“I’m intrigued by the fact they threw out a pretty damn good young quarterback (Josh Rosen) to bring in this young gunslinger,” Plummer said. “It’s all an experiment. But I like to see ownership, Michael Bidwill, Steve Keim, making these kinds of decisions. No longer follow the trends but start a trend in the NFL.
“It’s going to be fun to see how well this offense transfers to the next level.”
