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Pat Kelsey's reward for a stellar start to his Louisville basketball revival: a first-round NCAA Tournament matchup against a team that has advanced to the Sweet 16 or the Elite Eight in three of the past four postseasons.
U of L (27-7), the No. 8 seed in the South region, tips off two days of nonstop hoops at 12:15 p.m. Thursday (CBS) vs. No. 9 Creighton (24-10) inside Lexington's Rupp Arena — its first taste of March Madness since 2019.
"An explosive team," Kelsey told Matt Jones and Myron Medcalf on Sunday night, during an appearance on ESPN Radio. "A dangerous team — extremely well-coached."
In Year 15 of Greg McDermott's tenure, Creighton finished the regular season at 22-9 overall and 15-5 in the Big East. It beat DePaul and UConn to reach the conference tournament championship game at Madison Square Garden but fell to Hall of Famer Rick Pitino and St. John's, 82-66.
Two years ago, the Bluejays started a run to the Elite Eight as a No. 6 seed. It brought them to the KFC Yum! Center; where they came one win shy of the Final Four against No. 5 San Diego State, 57-56.
The winner of Thursday's game will face either the tournament's No. 1 overall seed, Auburn, or the winner of a No. 16 play-in game between Alabama State or Saint Francis on Saturday. But one thing at a time; here's a deeper dive on the Cardinals' first opponent:
Ryan Kalkbrenner, 7-foot-1 unanimous first-team All-Big East selection, leads Creighton (and ranks second in the conference) in scoring with 19.4 points on a league-best 66.3% shooting.
The Florissant, Missouri, native is also the Jays' top rebounder (8.8) and leads the Big East in blocks per contest with 2.7. He's also the only Division I player who has more dunks than Louisville's James Scott, converting 103 of his 111 attempts.
Kalkbrenner would be a tough matchup with the Cards at full strength; making matters worse is the fact that Kelsey's frontcourt has been thin since Kasean Pryor tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee back in November.
U of L faced some talented bigs at the ACC Tournament: Stanford's Maxime Raynaud, Clemson's Viktor Lakhin and Ian Schieffelin and Duke's Khaman Maluach. Across three games at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina, it went +10 in paint scoring (100-90), +8 in rebounding (108-100) and +14 in second-chance points (36-22).
Creighton entered the NCAA Tournament shooting 33.9% (321 for 947) from 3-point range while holding opponents to a 32.7% (257-for-786) clip from beyond the arc. Louisville is sitting at 33% (320 for 970) and 33.7% (267 for 792), respectively.
Something's gotta give; especially with the Cards' top marksman, Reyne Smith, on track to return from a sprained right ankle.
Senior guard Steven Ashworth leads the Jays with 103 treys — good for 16th across DI as of Sunday morning — on 279 attempts. He is one of McDermott's four players with a clip of 35% or better from deep, ranks second on the team in scoring with 16.3 points per game and has a top-25 assist rate on KenPom.com to boot.
Failing to defend the 3 — and a cold night from beyond the arc — were two of the biggest reasons why U of L came up short against Duke in the ACC Tournament championship game. The Blue Devils went 10 for 27 (37%) and held Kelsey's team to a 7-for-26 (26.9%) clip.
During Smith's four-game absence, Louisville combined to shoot 26 for 93 (27.9%) from 3.
Evan Miyakawa, the brains behind the advanced analytics website EvanMiya.com shared a graphic to X, formerly Twitter, on Feb. 19 breaking down just how susceptible DI teams were to "kill shots," which he defines as runs of 10 or more unanswered points — adjusted for strength of competition.
At the time, Creighton fell into the category of "suspect teams," which conceded on average more of those runs per game (0.5) than they produced (0.3). For that reason, Miyakawa labeled the Jays as "never trustworthy."
Louisville, meanwhile, was faring much better — under 0.4 and over 0.6, respectively.
To Creighton's credit, it has improved on that front. As of Sunday, playing at a tempo of 68.1 possessions per game, it was averaging 0.62 kill shots (21 total) against 0.44 conceded (15).
With a tempo of 69.8, the Cards were sitting at 0.59 (20) and 0.29 (10), respectively.
Louisville 72, Creighton 68: KenPom gives the Cards a 60% chance of beating the Jays and projects a 75-72 final score in their favor. With a boisterous "neutral-site" crowd behind it — and a chip on its shoulder after feeling slighted by the selection committee — give me Kelsey's team to eke out a W in a slightly lower-scoring affair than the computers are projecting.
We occasionally recommend interesting products and services. If you make a purchase by clicking one of the links, we may earn an affiliate fee. USA TODAY Network newsrooms operate independently, and this doesn’t influence our coverage.
Reach Louisville men's basketball reporter Brooks Holton at [email protected] and follow him on X at @brooksHolton.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Louisville vs Creighton prediction, pick for March Madness first round
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U of L (27-7), the No. 8 seed in the South region, tips off two days of nonstop hoops at 12:15 p.m. Thursday (CBS) vs. No. 9 Creighton (24-10) inside Lexington's Rupp Arena — its first taste of March Madness since 2019.
"An explosive team," Kelsey told Matt Jones and Myron Medcalf on Sunday night, during an appearance on ESPN Radio. "A dangerous team — extremely well-coached."
In Year 15 of Greg McDermott's tenure, Creighton finished the regular season at 22-9 overall and 15-5 in the Big East. It beat DePaul and UConn to reach the conference tournament championship game at Madison Square Garden but fell to Hall of Famer Rick Pitino and St. John's, 82-66.
Two years ago, the Bluejays started a run to the Elite Eight as a No. 6 seed. It brought them to the KFC Yum! Center; where they came one win shy of the Final Four against No. 5 San Diego State, 57-56.
The winner of Thursday's game will face either the tournament's No. 1 overall seed, Auburn, or the winner of a No. 16 play-in game between Alabama State or Saint Francis on Saturday. But one thing at a time; here's a deeper dive on the Cardinals' first opponent:
Creighton's go-to guy: Ryan Kalkbrenner
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Ryan Kalkbrenner, 7-foot-1 unanimous first-team All-Big East selection, leads Creighton (and ranks second in the conference) in scoring with 19.4 points on a league-best 66.3% shooting.
The Florissant, Missouri, native is also the Jays' top rebounder (8.8) and leads the Big East in blocks per contest with 2.7. He's also the only Division I player who has more dunks than Louisville's James Scott, converting 103 of his 111 attempts.
Kalkbrenner would be a tough matchup with the Cards at full strength; making matters worse is the fact that Kelsey's frontcourt has been thin since Kasean Pryor tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee back in November.
U of L faced some talented bigs at the ACC Tournament: Stanford's Maxime Raynaud, Clemson's Viktor Lakhin and Ian Schieffelin and Duke's Khaman Maluach. Across three games at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina, it went +10 in paint scoring (100-90), +8 in rebounding (108-100) and +14 in second-chance points (36-22).
Creighton's sharpshooter: Steven Ashworth
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Creighton entered the NCAA Tournament shooting 33.9% (321 for 947) from 3-point range while holding opponents to a 32.7% (257-for-786) clip from beyond the arc. Louisville is sitting at 33% (320 for 970) and 33.7% (267 for 792), respectively.
Something's gotta give; especially with the Cards' top marksman, Reyne Smith, on track to return from a sprained right ankle.
Senior guard Steven Ashworth leads the Jays with 103 treys — good for 16th across DI as of Sunday morning — on 279 attempts. He is one of McDermott's four players with a clip of 35% or better from deep, ranks second on the team in scoring with 16.3 points per game and has a top-25 assist rate on KenPom.com to boot.
Failing to defend the 3 — and a cold night from beyond the arc — were two of the biggest reasons why U of L came up short against Duke in the ACC Tournament championship game. The Blue Devils went 10 for 27 (37%) and held Kelsey's team to a 7-for-26 (26.9%) clip.
During Smith's four-game absence, Louisville combined to shoot 26 for 93 (27.9%) from 3.
Creighton's weakness: 'kill shots'
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Evan Miyakawa, the brains behind the advanced analytics website EvanMiya.com shared a graphic to X, formerly Twitter, on Feb. 19 breaking down just how susceptible DI teams were to "kill shots," which he defines as runs of 10 or more unanswered points — adjusted for strength of competition.
At the time, Creighton fell into the category of "suspect teams," which conceded on average more of those runs per game (0.5) than they produced (0.3). For that reason, Miyakawa labeled the Jays as "never trustworthy."
Louisville, meanwhile, was faring much better — under 0.4 and over 0.6, respectively.
To Creighton's credit, it has improved on that front. As of Sunday, playing at a tempo of 68.1 possessions per game, it was averaging 0.62 kill shots (21 total) against 0.44 conceded (15).
With a tempo of 69.8, the Cards were sitting at 0.59 (20) and 0.29 (10), respectively.
Louisville vs Creighton prediction: March Madness Round of 64
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Louisville 72, Creighton 68: KenPom gives the Cards a 60% chance of beating the Jays and projects a 75-72 final score in their favor. With a boisterous "neutral-site" crowd behind it — and a chip on its shoulder after feeling slighted by the selection committee — give me Kelsey's team to eke out a W in a slightly lower-scoring affair than the computers are projecting.
We occasionally recommend interesting products and services. If you make a purchase by clicking one of the links, we may earn an affiliate fee. USA TODAY Network newsrooms operate independently, and this doesn’t influence our coverage.
Reach Louisville men's basketball reporter Brooks Holton at [email protected] and follow him on X at @brooksHolton.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Louisville vs Creighton prediction, pick for March Madness first round
Continue reading...
