Luke Winn of SI's preseason top 10 in hoops next year

[Russ Smith]

Way too early with no idea who's going but he picks.

UNC
UCONN
UCLA
Purdue
Kansas
Texas
West Virginia
Georgetown
Duke
Tennessee

USC is the only other Pac 10 school he has in the top 30, obviously the Pac is losing a ton this year he's assuming Westbrook stays to have UCLA that high which may not be a good assumption.

 

[LVCARDFREAK]

Way too early with no idea who's going but he picks.

UNC
UCONN
UCLA
Purdue
Kansas
Texas
West Virginia
Georgetown
Duke
Tennessee

USC is the only other Pac 10 school he has in the top 30, obviously the Pac is losing a ton this year he's assuming Westbrook stays to have UCLA that high which may not be a good assumption.

Thats a shocker, WVU? The only reason I say that is Alexander is contemplating declaring for the draft

 

[Southpaw]

What? No Davidson?

Florida? Xavier? Butler?

 

[Russ Smith]

Thats a shocker, WVU? The only reason I say that is Alexander is contemplating declaring for the draft

He in fact did but without an agent.

Winn is just guessing, when i saw that yesterday i was pretty sure Westbrook was leaving, I'm now fairly sure(60%) that he's staying. It's impossible to know until the deadline Alexander is clearlya potential first rounder depending on workouts.

I actually like players to test the waters it can really help them improve to hear NBA teams tell them what they need to work on. In general the kids who don't listen don't test the waters in the first place they hire an agent.

 

[Skkorpion]

What? No Davidson?

Florida? Xavier? Butler?

Naw. That would require actual analysis and intellectual honesty -- things the poll voters lack as well.

 

[Russ Smith]

What? No Davidson?

Florida? Xavier? Butler?

Xavier loses 3 starters, Duncan, Burrell and Lavender. Butler loses 3 starters including their starting backcourt.

Florida could be good but they're possibly losing Speights he filed for the draft without an agent. Florida should probably be ranked though.

Davidson could be interesting they lose 3 starters including the PG Richards but of course they bring back Curry who was the dominant guy on the team anyways.

 

[Rivercard]

Naw. That would require actual analysis and intellectual honesty -- things the poll voters lack as well.

At least with College basketball the polls will basically work themselves out by the end of the year with on the court performance. Unlike College football and it's disgusting politics and money grabbing.

 

[Southpaw]

Xavier loses 3 starters, Duncan, Burrell and Lavender. Butler loses 3 starters including their starting backcourt.

Florida could be good but they're possibly losing Speights he filed for the draft without an agent. Florida should probably be ranked though.

Davidson could be interesting they lose 3 starters including the PG Richards but of course they bring back Curry who was the dominant guy on the team anyways.

As do the locked in top ten teams. They all lose starters. All of the programs, I mentioned have had success for quite a few years and always finish in the top 20, yet somehow they escape notice by the pre season pollsters, and have to fight their way up the rankings. Just like NCAA Football pre season polls.

 

[Russ Smith]

As do the locked in top ten teams. They all lose starters. All of the programs, I mentioned have had success for quite a few years and always finish in the top 20, yet somehow they escape notice by the pre season pollsters, and have to fight their way up the rankings. Just like NCAA Football pre season polls.

Sure but in most cases the top 10 schools had more talent in the first place and better recruiting classes.

It's way too early to rank teams anyways, UCLA could lose anywhere from 3 to 8 kids this offseason and even Howland doesn't know what that number will be. They could fall right out of the top 25 if they lose enough kids.

But when teams like Xavier and Butler make a good 2-3 year run and then lose 3 key starters off those teams it's pretty logcial to assume they're going to see some dropoff.

I'd love to see Davidson back there next year wasn't that long ago I was defending Davidson when people were ripping UCLA's OOC schedule and how they picked Davidson to play in the Wooden Classic I pointed out then that Davidson was highly underrated and Curry was the best guard UCLA would play against all year.

I just don't know if they can lose 3 starters and be that good next year?

 

[Southpaw]

Sure but in most cases the top 10 schools had more talent in the first place and better recruiting classes.

It's way too early to rank teams anyways, UCLA could lose anywhere from 3 to 8 kids this offseason and even Howland doesn't know what that number will be. They could fall right out of the top 25 if they lose enough kids.

But when teams like Xavier and Butler make a good 2-3 year run and then lose 3 key starters off those teams it's pretty logcial to assume they're going to see some dropoff.

I'd love to see Davidson back there next year wasn't that long ago I was defending Davidson when people were ripping UCLA's OOC schedule and how they picked Davidson to play in the Wooden Classic I pointed out then that Davidson was highly underrated and Curry was the best guard UCLA would play against all year.

I just don't know if they can lose 3 starters and be that good next year?

Teams like Butler, Xavier, Gonzaga, etc are junior/senior laden teams. The glamor schools under the new draft rules are not. Thinking that the glamor schools can continually reload without a hiccup, is dangerous. It happens. The teams that keep players for 3-4 years also have deeper benches. I will take the 3 years of experience and factor that into the equation, but as
Skorp said, writers would have to actually look at rosters to do that. The teams that automatically get dialed in makes those polls look ridiculous.

These are the same polls that give them the benefit of seeds and r.i.p. advantages.

 

[DWKB]

I'm surprised nobody has commented on the also-ran status a lot of "experts" are giving UofA. Hell, Katz has ASU ranked 15th and CBS has them 22nd.

Perception-wise, people are expecting UofA v08/09 to look a lot like v07/08?

 

[Russ Smith]

Teams like Butler, Xavier, Gonzaga, etc are junior/senior laden teams. The glamor schools under the new draft rules are not. Thinking that the glamor schools can continually reload without a hiccup, is dangerous. It happens. The teams that keep players for 3-4 years also have deeper benches. I will take the 3 years of experience and factor that into the equation, but as
Skorp said, writers would have to actually look at rosters to do that. The teams that automatically get dialed in makes those polls look ridiculous.

These are the same polls that give them the benefit of seeds and r.i.p. advantages.

Wally have you looked at their rosters? Butler and Xavier WERE senior laden, this year, those guys are all graduating that's why it's reasonable to assume they may dropoff next year.

I haven't looked at Gonzaga my perception is they're relatively young. I guess the question with them is Pargo reports are he's going to declare without an agent so he's pretty key to their season if he comes back.

I like Gonzaga they have a nice roster I love Bouldin, like I said before I'm one of the UCLA fans who wishes they'd stuck with austin Daye(assuming he could qualify). But with Butler and Xavier I think it's highly unlikely either one ends up a ranked team next year. There will be another team "like" a Xavier or Butler I guarantee it, I just don't think it will be Xavier or Butler.

 

[Russ Smith]

I'm surprised nobody has commented on the also-ran status a lot of "experts" are giving UofA. Hell, Katz has ASU ranked 15th and CBS has them 22nd.

Perception-wise, people are expecting UofA v08/09 to look a lot like v07/08?

I think it's because Bayless is gone and many assume Budinger is too?

Right now the Pac 10 looks to be really down when you look at all the kids who've already declared to leave or figure to be locks to do so. Lopez twins, Mayo, Bayless, Collison, Love. Then you add in the seniors leaving and boy does the conference seem down next year.

 

[Southpaw]

Wally have you looked at their rosters? Butler and Xavier WERE senior laden, this year, those guys are all graduating that's why it's reasonable to assume they may dropoff next year.

I haven't looked at Gonzaga my perception is they're relatively young. I guess the question with them is Pargo reports are he's going to declare without an agent so he's pretty key to their season if he comes back.

I like Gonzaga they have a nice roster I love Bouldin, like I said before I'm one of the UCLA fans who wishes they'd stuck with austin Daye(assuming he could qualify). But with Butler and Xavier I think it's highly unlikely either one ends up a ranked team next year. There will be another team "like" a Xavier or Butler I guarantee it, I just don't think it will be Xavier or Butler.

You miss the point entirely. I would rather rotate sophomores and juniors into the vacated rolls of juniors and seniors than freshmen for freshmen and sophomores. Ask Billy Donovan. Are you assuming that Xavier, Butler and Gonzaga have no RS Freshmen, Sophs and Juniors. If so, you are wrong.

 

[DWKB]

I think it's because Bayless is gone and many assume Budinger is too?

Right now the Pac 10 looks to be really down when you look at all the kids who've already declared to leave or figure to be locks to do so. Lopez twins, Mayo, Bayless, Collison, Love. Then you add in the seniors leaving and boy does the conference seem down next year.

Yeah I know, just odd that UofA has such a high recruiting class that they wouldn't get more consideration I guess.

Big 12 dealing with similar situation although Griffen is staying Walker, Beasley, Rush, Arthur, Augustine, Jordan leaving early. Then several seniors from KU, OU, NU, and TT that were key players gone.

 

[Russ Smith]

You miss the point entirely. I would rather rotate sophomores and juniors into the vacated rolls of juniors and seniors than freshmen for freshmen and sophomores. Ask Billy Donovan. Are you assuming that Xavier, Butler and Gonzaga have no RS Freshmen, Sophs and Juniors. If so, you are wrong.

no I'm assuming that since they were senior dominated teams those sophs and juniors probably aren't going to step right in and replace the seniors?

Xavier might be able to they were a very balanced scoring team they had 4 guys who scored in double figures and 2 more who were just under 10 PPG. 3 of those were seniors of course including 2 of their top 3 scorers. it's harder for schools like that to replace that many starters in one year because they typically don't "reload" in recruiting as easily as a power school does.

Butler graduated 60% of it's scoring this year. Yes they have underclassmen but they were a senior dominated team much like Washington State was who pretty much everyone assumes will have a large dropoff this year.

Xavier was deeper but Butler wasn't very deep at all, they basically played 7 guys and 3 of them are gone now.

The reason Florida had problems is they literally lost 5 starters 3 of whom were lottery picks. They went from the most talented starting 5 in the country to a starting 5 almost entirely of freshmen. You'll note nobody was picking Florida top 5 in the preseason this year either, same reason.

The schools picked at the top here are all losing key guys but probably not enough to decimate the team. UCLA could, Kansas could(Rush, Chalmers, Arthur and Collins are all considering leaving reportedly) but the author makes it clear he's assuming some key guys return on those teams.

he's not just blindly penciling in teams because they're name teams he's guessing who will leave who won't and then ranking based on that.

It's too early to do that because of the draft but the man has a job to do so he does it by guessing.