Making the playoffs not as easy as we think?

[fordronken]

Virtual locks:
San Antonio
Sacramento
Minnesota

Strong chance:
Dallas
Utah
Houston
Memphis

Could make it:
New Orleans
Portland

Depends on what happens with Kobe
Clippers
Lakers

Granted, things haven't totally shaken out yet. But you've got basically no chance of Phoenix finishing ahead of Minnesota, San Antonio or Sacramento. The rest is kind of a crap shoot, depending on how other team's new members mesh, as well as our own, and how much more developed JJ and Stoudemire are. Honestly, I can see us finishing anywhere from 4th to 10th in the west next year, and that's with a healthy squad.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Sac is not as clear of a lock as you may think.

Vlade is probally 50% out the door.

Webber looked horrible last year. Microfracture surgery is what Penny had, and we know how reliable that can be.

The team is no where near as deep as it used to be, and it's age is beginning to show. Not to mention the new rift between Webber and Pedja. I think they will make the playoffs, but more around 5-8 seed.




Memphis still depends on Hubie Brown. As far as I know, he hasn't committed to returning. Also, who knows if they will push for a S&T with Damp (they are a front runner for it) and how much they would give up.


Dallas will take a big step back after loosing Nash.

Until NO gets Mashburn to do something, they will find it pretty hard. They got either 4th or 5th in the East last year, they should have a rough go of it. They didn't add anything, and their draft pick is a future prospect.

 

[George O'Brien]

Getting into the playoffs will be a huge challenge. None the less, the Suns would have to be considered a solid contender because they will one of the top offensive teams in the NBA. I don't like their chances of getting out of the first round, but I think they will win enough to get in assuming no major injuries.

 

[sunsfn]

For information sake, Hubie is coming back.

 

[Joe Mama]

I honestly believe that Houston is going to struggle to get into the playoffs, and that's assuming Tracy McGrady is healthy.

Joe Mama

 

[slinslin]

I think we can win the pacific division.

 

[B-Dogg]

I think the team we have put together can get out of the first round of the playoffs... match-up our starting lineup to any of the teams and from top to bottom we are just as good if not better than any of those teams. This is of course assuming Amare progresses like we all suspect...

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

I tried thinking of how the west will look if all teams go in as they currently are. Definitely not easy to do.



Especially when I realize you left Denver out of the initial list.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

I think we can win the pacific division.

I definitely agree with that.

LAL and LAC will both be decent, but not great. Sac is on a heavy decline.

GS is a joke.


In fact, we could be lucky and get the #2 seed that way. The other divisions look like they are going to be pretty tough.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I think we can win the pacific division.

I agree. None of the teams look especially strong.

I think Dallas will be hard pressed to make the playoffs. I predict Nelson will be fired mid-season.

 

[Hired Goon]

What about Denver?

 

[Chris_Sanders]

What about Denver?

Denver really tailed off at the end of the season when they stopped suprising people.

I think their new division is absolutely brutal and could easily preclude them from the playoffs.

 

[Joe Mama]

Denver really tailed off at the end of the season when they stopped suprising people.

I think their new division is absolutely brutal and could easily preclude them from the playoffs.

that may be true, but if Kenyon Martin's contract is not matched by New Jersey the Denver Nuggets will be even better. Martin will be a significant improvement to their frontcourt. If they get Martin and Marcus Camby stays healthy (those are big "if's") I might consider them a lock for home-court advantage in the first round.

Joe

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I heard yesterday that the Nets are matching no matter what. They may trade him though.

 

[Tank]

I heard yesterday that the Nets are matching no matter what. They may trade him though.

I couldn't imagine them trading him. Since they pay the 15M up front, if they traded him, it would be like paying 20M to him for half a year or one year or however long they kept him.

 

[F-Dog]

It's too late to trade K-Mart--if the Nets match, they're stuck with him for a while. I assume they'll match anyway.


Here's how I see things shaking out:


No-brainers

1. San Antonio
2. Minnesota


Any other team has a legitimate shot at missing the playoffs. The teams that play with a funky style have a better chance, since they're tougher to prepare for:

3. Memphis
4. Sacramento
5. Houston
6. Utah

Dallas? (I think the Mavs will probably miss the playoffs with their current roster, but they're hell to prepare for)


The Suns are in the next group--I figure making the playoffs is a coin flip for them at best:

Portland
Phoenix
Denver (no K-Mart)
Kobe's team
New Orleans


Six good teams for two spots (three at most)--next season's going to be pretty exciting, I'd say.

 

[elindholm]

Sacramento has to be the favorites for the Pacific at this point, but I agree they are vulnerable. Bryant's team and Phoenix are probably the next best. The Bryant loser and Golden State should be lottery fodder.

 

[NJYAJ09]

Thats why I'm saying 7th maybe 8th seed.

 

[NugzFan]

Virtual locks:
San Antonio
Sacramento
Minnesota

Strong chance:
Dallas
Utah
Houston
Memphis

Could make it:
New Orleans
Portland

Depends on what happens with Kobe
Clippers
Lakers

Granted, things haven't totally shaken out yet. But you've got basically no chance of Phoenix finishing ahead of Minnesota, San Antonio or Sacramento. The rest is kind of a crap shoot, depending on how other team's new members mesh, as well as our own, and how much more developed JJ and Stoudemire are. Honestly, I can see us finishing anywhere from 4th to 10th in the west next year, and that's with a healthy squad.

wait you guys thought it would be easy?

this aint the east fellas...this is the west.

you got 4 definite locks: sac, dallas, spurs, wolves

you got 3 more very likely: grizz, rockets, lakers/clips (whoever gets kobe)

you guys get to fight it out with utah, denver, portland and maybe the hornets for 8th.

 

[NugzFan]

I think we can win the pacific division.

lol

 

[NugzFan]

Denver really tailed off at the end of the season when they stopped suprising people.

I think their new division is absolutely brutal and could easily preclude them from the playoffs.

brutal? we have the easiest western conference division. besides divions mean NOTHING except when talking about top 3 seeds, which doesnt affect us.

 

[NugzFan]

that may be true, but if Kenyon Martin's contract is not matched by New Jersey the Denver Nuggets will be even better. Martin will be a significant improvement to their frontcourt. If they get Martin and Marcus Camby stays healthy (those are big "if's") I might consider them a lock for home-court advantage in the first round.

Joe

lol. i wish!

 

[NugzFan]

I heard yesterday that the Nets are matching no matter what. They may trade him though.

link? and they cannot trade him for 2 months after matching. AND there will be a nice 15% trade clause in the deal.

 

[SweetD]

link? and they cannot trade him for 2 months after matching. AND there will be a nice 15% trade clause in the deal.

They can trade him before right away but he would be a BY player so his they would only be able to get some at half his salary rate.

 

[George O'Brien]

The summer isn't over yet. Here are some things to consider:

1. Sacramento risks losing Divac if they are unprepared to increase their luxury tax hit. If they lose him, they have minimal depth with Webber a serious injury risk.

2. Minnesota has three key players with more than 10 years in the league: Sprewell (12), Cassell (11), and Johnson (11) plus several guys with 9 years experience. This is great when they are healthy, but their best "young" player - Wally is coming off an injury riddled season. Even unfamiliar names like Hoiberg will be 32 in October. This many veterans gives them a great advantage when they are healthy, but risk serious melt down if they aren't because older guys take longer to heal.

3. Houston has some interesting parts, but it will a challenge to make them work together. Last year they relied mostly on defense, but their new guys aren't known for playing defense. My prediction is more points and fewer wins.

4. Dallas will continue to score, but they will not be as effective without a point guard. I'm not sure that giving up Jamison made basketball sense. We will see if Laettner is an asset or a liability.

5. Memphis will be better with Cardinal. It is not clear they will be dramatically better, but a little bit unless they lose Swift.

6. The jury is out on the Nuggets. Getting Martin would be a plus, but they could end up getting no serious help.

7. The Lakers WITH Kobe are not going to be an especially strong team. Without him, they won't be as good as GS or Seattle.

8. The Clippers with Kobe will be competative, but chemistry could be a problem. Maggette and Brand are used to getting the ball a lot and this team still lacks a serious PG. If they end up without Kobe, I don't see them making a playoff run.


The only teams that look seriously stronger are Utah (well duh) and possibly the Spurs. I think Brent Barry will be much more useful than the Turk. They've re-signed Manu and Bowen, so it is otherwise the same team with better shooting.

Portland is almost certain to be making moves before the summer is out. They have the talent to make a lot of noise, but it is not clear that it fits together. With the right moves, they could be a contender, but they have a history of making dumb moves instead.

How do the Suns fit? I'm guessing no better than #6 or #7 slot. If healthy, the Suns could get close to 50 wins. But it would not take much for them to fall out of the playoffs due to a complete lack of defense.