12 High School kids in the draft?
By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Send an Email to Chad Ford
Friday, March 19
Updated: March 19
11:50 AM ET
For those of you who thought we were joking several months ago when we claimed that as many as 10 high school players could enter this year's NBA draft ... you better sit down.
After Insider blew the doors off the international draft last week by detailing the rush of young foreign 18-year-olds determined to enter the draft, it's time to shift the focus to the U.S., where a record number of high school players still look determined to test their NBA draft stock.
Many people want to blame LeBron James for this year's flood. But that seems somewhat silly. Five high school players were drafted last year. James is the only one who has done anything.
Travis Outlaw (Portland), Ndudi Ebi (Minnesota), Kendrick Perkins (Boston) and James Lang (New Orleans) haven't done jack this year. Lang already has been cut, and Outlaw, Ebi and Perkins are seeing fewer minutes than Darko Milicic. This is despite the fact all four were ranked among the top 10 high school players in the country last season.
So before we declare that prep players have turned the corner and are now NBA ready straight out of school, let's be clear. Only three high school players -- LeBron, Amare Stoudemire and Kevin Garnett -- have done anything significant in their rookie years.
The best ones (Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady, Jermaine O'Neal, Rashard Lewis) took at least two years to develop. Many more (Jonathan Bender, Darius Miles, Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, Eddy Curry, DeSagana Diop, DeShawn Stevenson, Outlaw, Ebi and Perkins) will take much longer than that.
So if 10 high school players are planning on heading to the NBA draft, along with six to seven under-20 international prospects, and three to four college freshmen, this draft is going to be the most potential-heavy, developmentally challenged draft ever.
With that said ... here they come.
Howard
Dwight Howard, 6-11, PF, Atlanta Christian: Looks like he's definitely in and will be one of the first players taken. Of all the high school players mentioned, he's the most ready to come in and contribute right away.
Josh Smith, 6-8, SF, Oak Hill Academy: Scouts are in love with his guard-like skills and shooting ability at his size and he likely will be a mid-lottery pick if he comes. However, scouts also concede he's at least two years away. He says he's 50-50 about coming to the pros or attending Indiana, but scouts say it's more like 95 percent that he'll be in the draft.
Shaun Livingston, 6-7, PG, Peoria, Ill.: He's very long and very skilled for a high school point guard. Scouts love his floor vision and believe he could make the jump right away based on skill level. However his body is so frail, he's going to take a few years to bulk up. He, too, is considered a mid-lottery pick. He's sitting on the fence between a commitment to Duke and the NBA. Scouts expect him to at least test the waters, though there's a much better chance he forgos the NBA and goes to Duke.
Telfair
Sebastian Telfair, 5-11, PG, Brooklyn: He may be the most talented high school player in the draft, but he's so small ... everyone's worried about it. A few years of college and he'd be a high draft pick, right now he's probably a mid-first rounder. The fact that he's talking with all of the shoe companies is just the latest in a long line of signs that point to Telfair breaking Louisville's heart and making the jump to the NBA. Will he regret it?
Dorell Wright, 6-7, SG, South Kent Prep: An amazing athlete and scorer who draws comparisons to Tracy McGrady. He's been really coming on strong lately, and several scouts believe that, next to Howard, he's the most NBA-ready high schooler. He's interviewing agents, and almost everyone believes he'll skip his commitment to DePaul and head straight to the league. He's a mid-to-late first rounder right now but has the potential to climb ahead of anyone on this list with the exception of Howard.
LaMarcus Aldridge, 6-11, PF, Seagonville, Texas: A very skilled big man who, because of his ball-handling and shooting ability, might be able to play some three in the pros. He's very thin, however, hurting his chances of getting minutes any time soon. There are a lot of comparisons to another former Texas prep star, Chris Bosh. Is committed to Texas, but sources close to Aldridge expect him to declare, especially if he plays well at one of the high school all-star events or the Nike Hoop Summit.
Marvin Williams, 6-9, SF, Bremerton, Washington: Has great size, skills and athleticism for a three. He already has an NBA body. His dad says he's 99 percent sure he's going to North Carolina, but they are sending out feelers. Right now he's a mid-to-late first rounder. Maybe the most likely to go to college of any of the guys on this list.
Al Jefferson, 6-9, PF, Prentiss, Mississippi: Great NBA body and strength. He's a devastating low-post player in high school, because he can outmuscle just about everyone. That will stop, however, when he gets to the pros. Not a top notch athlete and just tall enough to be a four in the pros. He's a late first rounder.
Juan Diego Tello Palacio, 6-8, SF, Our Savior, New York: The Colombia native is drawing comparisons to Ron Artest with his NBA body, athleticism and aggressive play. Is he ready? Scouts unanimously claim he's not. But Palacio has family issues that seem to be pushing him into the pros. He's a bubble first rounder right now.
Randolph Morris, 7-0, C, Fairbanks, Ga.: He's the second-most underrated of the group. Morris is so smart and seems so intent on getting an education that scouts have assumed he'll go to school. However sources claim he's still considering a jump to the pros. Given his size and skills, and the dearth of centers in the draft, it's hard to believe Morris wouldn't be a first rounder.
Robert Swift, 7-1, C, Bakersfield, Calif.: A skilled big man who has fallen in some scouts minds because of a few lackluster performances against some of the better high school prospects. Still, he's a legit center, and some scouts love him.
Rudy Gay, 6-8, SF, Baltimore: Another sleeper who has been sending out feelers. Most believe Gay will keep his commitment to UConn, but an amazing performance in the McDonalds game or at the Nike Hoops Summit, and who knows? Several scouts love him because he does just a bit of everything.
In case you lost count ... that's 12 high school players, not counting Canadian prep Ivan Chiriaev.
Draft Cards
Who's In? Among the underclassmen now expected to declare for the draft?
Humphries
Minnesota freshman Kris Humphries is expected to declare and is a likely mid-first round pick. Humphries, an athletic power forward who had an amazing freshman season, wanted to declare last season but couldn't get a first-round commitment. This year it sounds like he's in for sure.
Scouts expect Wisconsin junior point guard Devin Harris to declare, however Harris' father told reporters recently that he was undecided about a jump to the pros. Harris' father was recently laid off, leading to speculation Devin would go pro. Harris is projected as a late-lottery, mid-first-round pick.
Now that they've been eliminated from the tournament, look for two Florida Gators -- David Lee and Anthony Roberson -- to at least flirt with the draft. Roberson has been hinting all year that he wants to declare. Scouts think it's a bad idea. Lee has more pro potential because of his size and athleticism, but he's said to be sitting on the fence right now.
Western Carolina's Kevin Martin will declare. The 6-7, junior two-guard is a big-time scorer who averaged 24.9 ppg this season for Western Carolina. He's got great size, athleticism and a nice shooting touch for the position. Scouts are worried about a very thin frame and his seeming inability to take his defenders off the dribble. He's a bubble first rounder at this point.
Who's Out? Here are a few players who claim they're returning to school next year.
Michigan State forward Paul Davis likely will return for his junior season. His father told reporters Thursday that Davis wanted to return to school and work on his strength. Davis is considered an intriguing draft prospect by scouts but wouldn't have been more than a late-first-round pick if he declared this year.
Arizona State sophomore Ike Diogu also likely will return to school. Digou has been a monster in the Pac-10, but scouts think he's undersized.
UCLA freshman Trevor Ariza and Cal freshman Leon Powe both claim they're returning for their sophomore seasons. Both should be top prospects for the 2005 NBA Draft.
Who's Hot? With the NCAA tournament underway, who's stock is on the rise?
The more scouts watch Wake Forest freshman Chris Paul, the more convinced they are he'd be the first point guard taken in this year's draft if he declared. Paul had 22 points and seven assists in Wake's victory over Virginia Commonwealth.
"He's the most complete point guard I've seen in college in a long, long time," one league executive told Insider. "He's a better prospect than either Jay Williams or T.J. Ford were."
Araujo
BYU center Rafael Araujo's 24-point, 12-rebound performance against Syracuse on Thursday impressed scouts. "He's so strong and such a good rebounder," one scout old Insider. "He does a great job of creating space for himself. ... I think he's a better athlete than we first realized."
Arizona's Andre Iguodala had a stellar game for Arizona in its loss to Seton Hall. The big concern about Iguodala this season has been his shooting. However, he hit two of three from 3-point range Thursday and looked much steadier with the shot, scoring 19 points on 8-of-15 shooting.
Manhattan's Luis Flores continues to impress scouts with his frantic pace and quickness. Folks in the league know he's a big-time scorer, but at just 6-feet, he's going to have to prove he has some point-guard skills in the NBA's draft camps.
Andre Emmett's big shooting night against Charlotte helped his cause. Emmett went 8-for-11 from the field and 2-for-2 from behind the arc on the way to 20 points in Tech's victory.
By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Send an Email to Chad Ford
Friday, March 19
Updated: March 19
11:50 AM ET
For those of you who thought we were joking several months ago when we claimed that as many as 10 high school players could enter this year's NBA draft ... you better sit down.
After Insider blew the doors off the international draft last week by detailing the rush of young foreign 18-year-olds determined to enter the draft, it's time to shift the focus to the U.S., where a record number of high school players still look determined to test their NBA draft stock.
Many people want to blame LeBron James for this year's flood. But that seems somewhat silly. Five high school players were drafted last year. James is the only one who has done anything.
Travis Outlaw (Portland), Ndudi Ebi (Minnesota), Kendrick Perkins (Boston) and James Lang (New Orleans) haven't done jack this year. Lang already has been cut, and Outlaw, Ebi and Perkins are seeing fewer minutes than Darko Milicic. This is despite the fact all four were ranked among the top 10 high school players in the country last season.
So before we declare that prep players have turned the corner and are now NBA ready straight out of school, let's be clear. Only three high school players -- LeBron, Amare Stoudemire and Kevin Garnett -- have done anything significant in their rookie years.
The best ones (Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady, Jermaine O'Neal, Rashard Lewis) took at least two years to develop. Many more (Jonathan Bender, Darius Miles, Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, Eddy Curry, DeSagana Diop, DeShawn Stevenson, Outlaw, Ebi and Perkins) will take much longer than that.
So if 10 high school players are planning on heading to the NBA draft, along with six to seven under-20 international prospects, and three to four college freshmen, this draft is going to be the most potential-heavy, developmentally challenged draft ever.
With that said ... here they come.
Howard
Dwight Howard, 6-11, PF, Atlanta Christian: Looks like he's definitely in and will be one of the first players taken. Of all the high school players mentioned, he's the most ready to come in and contribute right away.
Josh Smith, 6-8, SF, Oak Hill Academy: Scouts are in love with his guard-like skills and shooting ability at his size and he likely will be a mid-lottery pick if he comes. However, scouts also concede he's at least two years away. He says he's 50-50 about coming to the pros or attending Indiana, but scouts say it's more like 95 percent that he'll be in the draft.
Shaun Livingston, 6-7, PG, Peoria, Ill.: He's very long and very skilled for a high school point guard. Scouts love his floor vision and believe he could make the jump right away based on skill level. However his body is so frail, he's going to take a few years to bulk up. He, too, is considered a mid-lottery pick. He's sitting on the fence between a commitment to Duke and the NBA. Scouts expect him to at least test the waters, though there's a much better chance he forgos the NBA and goes to Duke.
Telfair
Sebastian Telfair, 5-11, PG, Brooklyn: He may be the most talented high school player in the draft, but he's so small ... everyone's worried about it. A few years of college and he'd be a high draft pick, right now he's probably a mid-first rounder. The fact that he's talking with all of the shoe companies is just the latest in a long line of signs that point to Telfair breaking Louisville's heart and making the jump to the NBA. Will he regret it?
Dorell Wright, 6-7, SG, South Kent Prep: An amazing athlete and scorer who draws comparisons to Tracy McGrady. He's been really coming on strong lately, and several scouts believe that, next to Howard, he's the most NBA-ready high schooler. He's interviewing agents, and almost everyone believes he'll skip his commitment to DePaul and head straight to the league. He's a mid-to-late first rounder right now but has the potential to climb ahead of anyone on this list with the exception of Howard.
LaMarcus Aldridge, 6-11, PF, Seagonville, Texas: A very skilled big man who, because of his ball-handling and shooting ability, might be able to play some three in the pros. He's very thin, however, hurting his chances of getting minutes any time soon. There are a lot of comparisons to another former Texas prep star, Chris Bosh. Is committed to Texas, but sources close to Aldridge expect him to declare, especially if he plays well at one of the high school all-star events or the Nike Hoop Summit.
Marvin Williams, 6-9, SF, Bremerton, Washington: Has great size, skills and athleticism for a three. He already has an NBA body. His dad says he's 99 percent sure he's going to North Carolina, but they are sending out feelers. Right now he's a mid-to-late first rounder. Maybe the most likely to go to college of any of the guys on this list.
Al Jefferson, 6-9, PF, Prentiss, Mississippi: Great NBA body and strength. He's a devastating low-post player in high school, because he can outmuscle just about everyone. That will stop, however, when he gets to the pros. Not a top notch athlete and just tall enough to be a four in the pros. He's a late first rounder.
Juan Diego Tello Palacio, 6-8, SF, Our Savior, New York: The Colombia native is drawing comparisons to Ron Artest with his NBA body, athleticism and aggressive play. Is he ready? Scouts unanimously claim he's not. But Palacio has family issues that seem to be pushing him into the pros. He's a bubble first rounder right now.
Randolph Morris, 7-0, C, Fairbanks, Ga.: He's the second-most underrated of the group. Morris is so smart and seems so intent on getting an education that scouts have assumed he'll go to school. However sources claim he's still considering a jump to the pros. Given his size and skills, and the dearth of centers in the draft, it's hard to believe Morris wouldn't be a first rounder.
Robert Swift, 7-1, C, Bakersfield, Calif.: A skilled big man who has fallen in some scouts minds because of a few lackluster performances against some of the better high school prospects. Still, he's a legit center, and some scouts love him.
Rudy Gay, 6-8, SF, Baltimore: Another sleeper who has been sending out feelers. Most believe Gay will keep his commitment to UConn, but an amazing performance in the McDonalds game or at the Nike Hoops Summit, and who knows? Several scouts love him because he does just a bit of everything.
In case you lost count ... that's 12 high school players, not counting Canadian prep Ivan Chiriaev.
Draft Cards
Who's In? Among the underclassmen now expected to declare for the draft?
Humphries
Minnesota freshman Kris Humphries is expected to declare and is a likely mid-first round pick. Humphries, an athletic power forward who had an amazing freshman season, wanted to declare last season but couldn't get a first-round commitment. This year it sounds like he's in for sure.
Scouts expect Wisconsin junior point guard Devin Harris to declare, however Harris' father told reporters recently that he was undecided about a jump to the pros. Harris' father was recently laid off, leading to speculation Devin would go pro. Harris is projected as a late-lottery, mid-first-round pick.
Now that they've been eliminated from the tournament, look for two Florida Gators -- David Lee and Anthony Roberson -- to at least flirt with the draft. Roberson has been hinting all year that he wants to declare. Scouts think it's a bad idea. Lee has more pro potential because of his size and athleticism, but he's said to be sitting on the fence right now.
Western Carolina's Kevin Martin will declare. The 6-7, junior two-guard is a big-time scorer who averaged 24.9 ppg this season for Western Carolina. He's got great size, athleticism and a nice shooting touch for the position. Scouts are worried about a very thin frame and his seeming inability to take his defenders off the dribble. He's a bubble first rounder at this point.
Who's Out? Here are a few players who claim they're returning to school next year.
Michigan State forward Paul Davis likely will return for his junior season. His father told reporters Thursday that Davis wanted to return to school and work on his strength. Davis is considered an intriguing draft prospect by scouts but wouldn't have been more than a late-first-round pick if he declared this year.
Arizona State sophomore Ike Diogu also likely will return to school. Digou has been a monster in the Pac-10, but scouts think he's undersized.
UCLA freshman Trevor Ariza and Cal freshman Leon Powe both claim they're returning for their sophomore seasons. Both should be top prospects for the 2005 NBA Draft.
Who's Hot? With the NCAA tournament underway, who's stock is on the rise?
The more scouts watch Wake Forest freshman Chris Paul, the more convinced they are he'd be the first point guard taken in this year's draft if he declared. Paul had 22 points and seven assists in Wake's victory over Virginia Commonwealth.
"He's the most complete point guard I've seen in college in a long, long time," one league executive told Insider. "He's a better prospect than either Jay Williams or T.J. Ford were."
Araujo
BYU center Rafael Araujo's 24-point, 12-rebound performance against Syracuse on Thursday impressed scouts. "He's so strong and such a good rebounder," one scout old Insider. "He does a great job of creating space for himself. ... I think he's a better athlete than we first realized."
Arizona's Andre Iguodala had a stellar game for Arizona in its loss to Seton Hall. The big concern about Iguodala this season has been his shooting. However, he hit two of three from 3-point range Thursday and looked much steadier with the shot, scoring 19 points on 8-of-15 shooting.
Manhattan's Luis Flores continues to impress scouts with his frantic pace and quickness. Folks in the league know he's a big-time scorer, but at just 6-feet, he's going to have to prove he has some point-guard skills in the NBA's draft camps.
Andre Emmett's big shooting night against Charlotte helped his cause. Emmett went 8-for-11 from the field and 2-for-2 from behind the arc on the way to 20 points in Tech's victory.
