Can Ainge save the Celtics from himself?
By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Tuesday, March 9
Let's get this out of the way at the start: I like Danny Ainge. A lot.
I loved him as a basketball player. I thought he was an excellent head coach. And I always enjoyed his analysis as commentator on TNT.
He's also a guy who quit a high-paying job a few years ago to be with his family. In my book, it was the most important thing he's ever done with his life.
The worst thing Ainge has done? Come out of retirement to take a wrecking ball to the Celtics.
Celtics fans have their doubts that Danny Ainge's rebuilding plan will net positive results.
Now here's the kicker. I don't disagree with what Ainge has done in Boston in theory. Ainge cited four big reasons why he decided to demolish the leprechauns within minutes of arriving in Boston.
He believed the Celtics were fundamentally flawed and did not have a real chance at an NBA Championship.
The team was in terrible salary-cap shape and he had limited flexibility to make the lateral moves necessary to make the team better.
He did not like the style of basketball the Celtics played. They were boring.
He hated one of their core players, Antoine Walker, and didn't want him on the team. Period.
It's tough to argue with any of Ainge's points here. He's right, the Celtics weren't a championship team and minor tinkering wasn't going to turn them into one. The Celtics did have a boatload of bad contracts left from the Rick Pitino/Chris Wallace era. The Celtics' style of play was boring. Watching traffic just outside the Fleet Center was more exciting. And Walker was making too much money and shooting too many 3s.
Something had to be done. Ainge's decision to trade Walker wasn't a bad one. It's what he got in return that made no sense.
What's Wrong?
So what's wrong with the Celtics? Two things are troubling Boston fans these days.
One, Ainge's execution of a sound plan left something to be desired.
Last year's draft produced two first-round picks, Marcus Banks and Kendrick Perkins, who have only played sparingly. Even after the Celtics looked cooked and Ainge pushed interim head coach John Carroll to play the young guys, Banks and Perkins aren't seeing any meaningful time. Banks has already had several run-ins with the coaching staff and Perkins is just too raw to see minutes any time soon. Only second-round pick Brandon Hunter has made a meaningful contribution.
After the draft, Ainge moved Walker, claiming that he didn't want the franchise to be on the hook for a major contract extension, but then turned around and took on Raef LaFrentz's deal, which has five more years and roughly $50 million left.
Jiri Welsch
Guard-Forward
Boston Celtics
In Ainge's defense, LaFrentz was considered one of the league's most promising young big men before he got shipped to Dallas. He was a terrible fit on the Mavs and should be, if he ever gets healthy, a decent big man in the East. Ainge also walked away with Jiri Welsch, a top-notch prospect with a real future in Boston and an extra $4 million in cap room.
His other big deal -- Eric Williams, Kedrick Brown and Tony Battie for Ricky Davis, Yogi Stewart and Chris Mihm -- cost the Celtics coach Jim O'Brien. I don't care how special you think Davis can be, the loss of O'Brien wasn't worth it. Williams and Battie served as locker room glue. Davis has a history of being acid. The Celtics got marginally better offensively, but lost a lot defensively in the deal. The fact that they lost all of the cap room that they saved in the Walker deal will come back to haunt Ainge.
Ainge has been most maligned because of the the trade deadline deal that sent another $6 million in cap room to the Pistons for back-up point guard Chucky Atkins. Not only is Atkins overpaid, but the move appeared to undercut one of Ainge's stated goals, getting rookies like Banks more playing time. Atkins, a veteran with no long-term future in Boston, was inserted in the starting lineup and the Celtics did start winning.
As it stands now, the team has a fighting chance for the eight seed in the East. Even that may not be a good thing. The Celtics stand to lose four to six draft spots if they make it into the playoffs. The draft isn't that deep and the difference between the ninth pick and the 15th pick could be huge on draft night.
The other mistake Ainge made was potentially more serious. It appears that he misjudged the fans' willingness to go through another painful rebuilding process. The Celtics had just emerged from one of the most disastrous stretches in franchise history. The team went six seasons without a playoff appearance before O'Brien improbably lead the team to surprising Eastern Conference Finals run in 2002.
For the first time ever, the Fleet Center was rocking. Fans loved the team and were grateful for a modicum of success after a six-year drought. From the numerous people in Boston who I've talked to, Ainge seriously underestimated the backlash involved with willingly pushing the Celtics back into the lottery. Fans seemed to understand that the Celtics' chances of winning a championship with the current team were slim, but they wanted to see a winner for a few more years before demolishing the team.
Needless to say the venom spewn in Ainge's direction has been endless. "Fire Danny" chants ring through the rafters. Ainge's peers are scratching their heads as he tears down what's left of the Celtics. Through it all, Ainge has remained confident.
He knows what he wants. He has a plan to get the Celtics there. He's willing to be patient and see it through. His biggest issue? Can he get the fans to see it through with him? Attendance is down (the Warriors now draw more than the Celtics). Pessimism is up. A five-game winning streak has done little to pacify anyone.
Can Danny fix the mess he seemingly created?
Celtics' Summer Blueprint
The Celtics head into the summer with some serious issues yet to be resolved.
If an arbitrator rules that the Celtics wrongfully terminated Vin Baker's contract, the team will be in financial hot water again this summer. Taking on the long-term contracts of Davis, Stewart and Atkins will come back to haunt the team and Ainge will be seriously handcuffed to make a deal that has any real impact on the team. If an arbitrator does rule in the Celtics' favor, the team suddenly clears $14.6 million off the books, giving it plenty of financial freedom to make a few changes over the summer.
Here's a look at what to expect as Insider continues it's summer blueprint series.
DRAFT: The Celtics currently hold three first-round picks this summer. They have their own, the Mavericks' and the Pistons' first-rounders. If the draft were held today, the team would own the 16th, 23rd and 27th picks.
The Celtics' own pick is the most important. If they make the playoffs, the lowest they can draft is 15th. If the Cavs and Heat pass them for the eighth spot, they'll likely have the No. 9 pick in the draft. That's a major change of circumstances. With such gridlock at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings, a nice losing streak to end the season could easily get the Celtics as high as the No. 6 or No. 7 pick in the draft. That's a huge spread in any draft.
Ainge claims to like the draft and so do I. But it comes with a major, major caveat. There are very few impact players in this draft. Most of the best prospects are playing high school ball or are young 7-footers playing overseas. Few of them will be ready to contribute in a meaningful fashion for another two or three seasons. That doesn't bode well for the rebuilding process.
The strategy for the Celtics? Take one safe college pick and use the other two picks to try and nab an international and/or high school project with more upside. The team's biggest need is at the four and five, so expect the Celtics to go big whenever they can.
Among the big men who could possibly be available in the 9-27 range? Pavel Podkolzine (7-5, Russia), Martynas Andriuskevicius (7-3, Lithuania), Hakim Warrick (6-9, Syracuse), Ivan Chiriaev (7-1, Russia), Marvin Williams (6-9, Bremerton, WA), LaMarcus Aldridge (6-11, Dallas, TX), Damir Omerhodzic (6-11, Croatia), David Harrison (7-0, Colorado), Rafael Arajujo (6-11, BYU), and Ha Seung Jin (7-3, Korea).
That's actually a lot of big men for any one draft. But of the group, only one, Warrick, expects to make an impact in right away.
Mark Blount
Center
Boston Celtics
FREE AGENCY: This is where things get tricky for the Celtics. Center Mark Blount is an unrestricted free agent. The Celtics do not have his Bird Rights, meaning that if they want to re-sign him (they say they do) they'll have to dig into their mid-level salary exception to get it done. Blount is going to command some money on the open market, meaning that to re-sign him, the Celtics would likely have to spend most, if not all, of their exception to keep him around.
The team also has to decide what to do with Chris Mihm, who will be a restricted free agent this summer. He's not expected to command a huge salary on the open market, which could make him pretty affordable to re-sign.
If the team decides, instead, to let Blount go, then it'll have its full mid-level exception to work with. Ainge should be allowed to use it this year, but if the Celtics are forced to eat Baker's salary, it could cause some hand wringing among management. The Celtics payroll should come in at just around $45 million this summer (right at the cap) if Baker comes off the books. That number swells to $59 million (a few million over the luxury-tax threshold) if they're forced to pay Baker.
Who else will be available in the mid-level exception range who could interest the Celtics? Realistically, their best shot will be with a veteran player like Antonio McDyess, Zeljko Rebraca or a young big like Etan Thomas or Slava Medvedenko.
TRADES: The rumor out of Boston was that Ainge was attempting to move Ricky Davis before the trade deadline. If he could package him with Stewart (who is in the last year of his contract), Ainge may be able to get something decent back in return.
The other alternative is to try to trade Paul Pierce. The team has very decent options already at the two and three with Welsch and Davis. If Ainge could magically turn Pierce into a young four or five, he'd have to consider it. Most teams won't ever trade big for small, but Pierce is a special player and could convince the right GM to give up a big in return.
COACHING STAFF: John Carroll is a dead man walking. Ainge will try to find a coach who fits the style of play he wants his Celtics to play -- fast and furious. There has been a lot of speculation that Ainge ultimately will look in the mirror and find the next head coach of the Celtics, but he denies that so far.
There's a lot of buzz around former Sonics' coach Paul Westphal right now with several folks inside the Celtics claiming he's a front-runner for the job. Other coaches who have been mentioned include former Celtics Dave Cowens and Dennis Johnson
By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Tuesday, March 9
Let's get this out of the way at the start: I like Danny Ainge. A lot.
I loved him as a basketball player. I thought he was an excellent head coach. And I always enjoyed his analysis as commentator on TNT.
He's also a guy who quit a high-paying job a few years ago to be with his family. In my book, it was the most important thing he's ever done with his life.
The worst thing Ainge has done? Come out of retirement to take a wrecking ball to the Celtics.
Celtics fans have their doubts that Danny Ainge's rebuilding plan will net positive results.
Now here's the kicker. I don't disagree with what Ainge has done in Boston in theory. Ainge cited four big reasons why he decided to demolish the leprechauns within minutes of arriving in Boston.
He believed the Celtics were fundamentally flawed and did not have a real chance at an NBA Championship.
The team was in terrible salary-cap shape and he had limited flexibility to make the lateral moves necessary to make the team better.
He did not like the style of basketball the Celtics played. They were boring.
He hated one of their core players, Antoine Walker, and didn't want him on the team. Period.
It's tough to argue with any of Ainge's points here. He's right, the Celtics weren't a championship team and minor tinkering wasn't going to turn them into one. The Celtics did have a boatload of bad contracts left from the Rick Pitino/Chris Wallace era. The Celtics' style of play was boring. Watching traffic just outside the Fleet Center was more exciting. And Walker was making too much money and shooting too many 3s.
Something had to be done. Ainge's decision to trade Walker wasn't a bad one. It's what he got in return that made no sense.
What's Wrong?
So what's wrong with the Celtics? Two things are troubling Boston fans these days.
One, Ainge's execution of a sound plan left something to be desired.
Last year's draft produced two first-round picks, Marcus Banks and Kendrick Perkins, who have only played sparingly. Even after the Celtics looked cooked and Ainge pushed interim head coach John Carroll to play the young guys, Banks and Perkins aren't seeing any meaningful time. Banks has already had several run-ins with the coaching staff and Perkins is just too raw to see minutes any time soon. Only second-round pick Brandon Hunter has made a meaningful contribution.
After the draft, Ainge moved Walker, claiming that he didn't want the franchise to be on the hook for a major contract extension, but then turned around and took on Raef LaFrentz's deal, which has five more years and roughly $50 million left.
Jiri Welsch
Guard-Forward
Boston Celtics
In Ainge's defense, LaFrentz was considered one of the league's most promising young big men before he got shipped to Dallas. He was a terrible fit on the Mavs and should be, if he ever gets healthy, a decent big man in the East. Ainge also walked away with Jiri Welsch, a top-notch prospect with a real future in Boston and an extra $4 million in cap room.
His other big deal -- Eric Williams, Kedrick Brown and Tony Battie for Ricky Davis, Yogi Stewart and Chris Mihm -- cost the Celtics coach Jim O'Brien. I don't care how special you think Davis can be, the loss of O'Brien wasn't worth it. Williams and Battie served as locker room glue. Davis has a history of being acid. The Celtics got marginally better offensively, but lost a lot defensively in the deal. The fact that they lost all of the cap room that they saved in the Walker deal will come back to haunt Ainge.
Ainge has been most maligned because of the the trade deadline deal that sent another $6 million in cap room to the Pistons for back-up point guard Chucky Atkins. Not only is Atkins overpaid, but the move appeared to undercut one of Ainge's stated goals, getting rookies like Banks more playing time. Atkins, a veteran with no long-term future in Boston, was inserted in the starting lineup and the Celtics did start winning.
As it stands now, the team has a fighting chance for the eight seed in the East. Even that may not be a good thing. The Celtics stand to lose four to six draft spots if they make it into the playoffs. The draft isn't that deep and the difference between the ninth pick and the 15th pick could be huge on draft night.
The other mistake Ainge made was potentially more serious. It appears that he misjudged the fans' willingness to go through another painful rebuilding process. The Celtics had just emerged from one of the most disastrous stretches in franchise history. The team went six seasons without a playoff appearance before O'Brien improbably lead the team to surprising Eastern Conference Finals run in 2002.
For the first time ever, the Fleet Center was rocking. Fans loved the team and were grateful for a modicum of success after a six-year drought. From the numerous people in Boston who I've talked to, Ainge seriously underestimated the backlash involved with willingly pushing the Celtics back into the lottery. Fans seemed to understand that the Celtics' chances of winning a championship with the current team were slim, but they wanted to see a winner for a few more years before demolishing the team.
Needless to say the venom spewn in Ainge's direction has been endless. "Fire Danny" chants ring through the rafters. Ainge's peers are scratching their heads as he tears down what's left of the Celtics. Through it all, Ainge has remained confident.
He knows what he wants. He has a plan to get the Celtics there. He's willing to be patient and see it through. His biggest issue? Can he get the fans to see it through with him? Attendance is down (the Warriors now draw more than the Celtics). Pessimism is up. A five-game winning streak has done little to pacify anyone.
Can Danny fix the mess he seemingly created?
Celtics' Summer Blueprint
The Celtics head into the summer with some serious issues yet to be resolved.
If an arbitrator rules that the Celtics wrongfully terminated Vin Baker's contract, the team will be in financial hot water again this summer. Taking on the long-term contracts of Davis, Stewart and Atkins will come back to haunt the team and Ainge will be seriously handcuffed to make a deal that has any real impact on the team. If an arbitrator does rule in the Celtics' favor, the team suddenly clears $14.6 million off the books, giving it plenty of financial freedom to make a few changes over the summer.
Here's a look at what to expect as Insider continues it's summer blueprint series.
DRAFT: The Celtics currently hold three first-round picks this summer. They have their own, the Mavericks' and the Pistons' first-rounders. If the draft were held today, the team would own the 16th, 23rd and 27th picks.
The Celtics' own pick is the most important. If they make the playoffs, the lowest they can draft is 15th. If the Cavs and Heat pass them for the eighth spot, they'll likely have the No. 9 pick in the draft. That's a major change of circumstances. With such gridlock at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings, a nice losing streak to end the season could easily get the Celtics as high as the No. 6 or No. 7 pick in the draft. That's a huge spread in any draft.
Ainge claims to like the draft and so do I. But it comes with a major, major caveat. There are very few impact players in this draft. Most of the best prospects are playing high school ball or are young 7-footers playing overseas. Few of them will be ready to contribute in a meaningful fashion for another two or three seasons. That doesn't bode well for the rebuilding process.
The strategy for the Celtics? Take one safe college pick and use the other two picks to try and nab an international and/or high school project with more upside. The team's biggest need is at the four and five, so expect the Celtics to go big whenever they can.
Among the big men who could possibly be available in the 9-27 range? Pavel Podkolzine (7-5, Russia), Martynas Andriuskevicius (7-3, Lithuania), Hakim Warrick (6-9, Syracuse), Ivan Chiriaev (7-1, Russia), Marvin Williams (6-9, Bremerton, WA), LaMarcus Aldridge (6-11, Dallas, TX), Damir Omerhodzic (6-11, Croatia), David Harrison (7-0, Colorado), Rafael Arajujo (6-11, BYU), and Ha Seung Jin (7-3, Korea).
That's actually a lot of big men for any one draft. But of the group, only one, Warrick, expects to make an impact in right away.
Mark Blount
Center
Boston Celtics
FREE AGENCY: This is where things get tricky for the Celtics. Center Mark Blount is an unrestricted free agent. The Celtics do not have his Bird Rights, meaning that if they want to re-sign him (they say they do) they'll have to dig into their mid-level salary exception to get it done. Blount is going to command some money on the open market, meaning that to re-sign him, the Celtics would likely have to spend most, if not all, of their exception to keep him around.
The team also has to decide what to do with Chris Mihm, who will be a restricted free agent this summer. He's not expected to command a huge salary on the open market, which could make him pretty affordable to re-sign.
If the team decides, instead, to let Blount go, then it'll have its full mid-level exception to work with. Ainge should be allowed to use it this year, but if the Celtics are forced to eat Baker's salary, it could cause some hand wringing among management. The Celtics payroll should come in at just around $45 million this summer (right at the cap) if Baker comes off the books. That number swells to $59 million (a few million over the luxury-tax threshold) if they're forced to pay Baker.
Who else will be available in the mid-level exception range who could interest the Celtics? Realistically, their best shot will be with a veteran player like Antonio McDyess, Zeljko Rebraca or a young big like Etan Thomas or Slava Medvedenko.
TRADES: The rumor out of Boston was that Ainge was attempting to move Ricky Davis before the trade deadline. If he could package him with Stewart (who is in the last year of his contract), Ainge may be able to get something decent back in return.
The other alternative is to try to trade Paul Pierce. The team has very decent options already at the two and three with Welsch and Davis. If Ainge could magically turn Pierce into a young four or five, he'd have to consider it. Most teams won't ever trade big for small, but Pierce is a special player and could convince the right GM to give up a big in return.
COACHING STAFF: John Carroll is a dead man walking. Ainge will try to find a coach who fits the style of play he wants his Celtics to play -- fast and furious. There has been a lot of speculation that Ainge ultimately will look in the mirror and find the next head coach of the Celtics, but he denies that so far.
There's a lot of buzz around former Sonics' coach Paul Westphal right now with several folks inside the Celtics claiming he's a front-runner for the job. Other coaches who have been mentioned include former Celtics Dave Cowens and Dennis Johnson
