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With the First Four games of the 2025 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament settled, the Round of 64 is set, and Florida has a reasonably clear path to its first Final Four appearance since 2014.
While the Gators may be the favorite to come out of the West Region this year, it's good to take these kinds of things one game, or round, at a time. It's one thing to be the best in the region on paper; it's an entirely different thing to actually survive a four-game gauntlet and advance.
With that said, here's a closer look (and some predictions) at the Round 1 matchups in the West, which take place Thursday and Friday.
Before looking at things chronologically, Gators Wire will, of course, go out of order to look at everyone's favorite team in Orange and Blue — sorry, Auburn fans, but Florida is the true SEC representative of those colors.
The Gators enter March Madness as the best offensive team in college basketball, according to KenPom's efficiency ratings, and they're also a top-10 team on defense. The spread currently sits at -28.5 in favor of Florida, and there are only a few people in Virginia picking NSU to pull off the Cinderella upset. Florida is a legitimate national championship contender and all signs point to the Gators advancing through the first round on Friday.
Prediction: Florida 88, Norfolk State, 60
Arkansas and Kansas kick off play in the West Region Thursday night, and it might end up being one of the best matchups in the first round. It's John Calipari versus Bill Self in March. How could it be a bad game? Both teams feature elite rosters that have disappointed at times this season.
This game may come down to how well Kansas plays defense. Arkansas regularly drops 80 or more points, and Kansas typically wins when it holds opponents to 73 points or fewer. Arkansas likes to play fast, and Kansas will look to slow down the pace. Heck, these two teams even disagree on how to pronounce the -Kansas part of their names. All jokes aside, it's a coin flip here depending on which version of each team shows up. Arky has some injury woes to overcome, and KU needs to find a consistent source of scoring.
Prediction: Arkansas 75, Kansas 73
Missouri versus Drake could be another matchup that's too close to call outright. Drake plays with the slowest pace in college basketball, and Mizzou has a top-5 offense. A style clash is the focus here, but don't sleep on Missouri's defense. The Tigers are a top-10 program in steals, and a few mistakes from Drake's offense could decide the game.
Drake's path to victory is pretty clear: stop Caleb Grill, or at least limit him from beyond the arc, and win the transition game. Second-chance opportunities are also a big factor for the Bulldogs. If Drake's undersized frontcourt can win often on the offensive glass, things will go their way. Bennett Stirtz will have to avoid a cold spell and lead the Bulldogs' scoring effort.
Prediction: Missouri 73, Drake 68
St. John's is a No. 2 seed in its first year under Rick Pitino and the Red Storm also boasts the most efficient defense in the country, according to KenPom. That's not a great sign for Omaha, even if the Mavericks have put together a top-100 offense en route to a Summit League Tournament Championship. Omaha's defense is also ranked in the lower third among all college basketball programs this year, giving St. John's the advantage on both sides of the ball.
Prediction: St. John's 82, Omaha 63
Closing out Night 1 of Round 1 is a fun matchup between Texas Tech and UNC Wilmington. The Red Raiders have plenty of scoring options, including JT Toppin as the leader of that group. The Seahawks have size and can get to the line, which has been an Achilles heel of sorts for Tech.
This is Tech's game to lose, but it could be a lot closer than expected if UNCW can limit a top-10 offense and hit timely shots/free throws.
Prediction: Texas Tech 82, UNC Wilmington 70
Friday's slate kicks off with another good matchup between Colorado State and Memphis. The Tigers are a top-50 team in efficiency with a slightly better defense than offense, while still boasting one of the best scorers in college hoops, PJ Haggerty, who averages 22 points per game. Memphis has several quality non-conference wins this season — Clemson, Connecticut, Michigan State, Missouri and Ole Miss — so a sizzling Colorado State team won't phase them.
The Rams are riding a 10-game win streak heading into tournament play and are coming off a Mountain West Championship. Nique Clifford is CSU's answer to Haggerty, but it's going to take a full-team effort to advance. Slowing the game down is key for the Rams, who are a bottom-third team in tempo while Memphis operates at a top-30 pace. It wouldn't exactly be an upset with CSU favored coming into the game, but it fits the 12-seed magic outline NCAA Tournament fans have come to appreciate.
Prediction: Colorado State 75, Memphis 74
Maryland has been a fun team to watch this year out of the Big Ten. The starting five is among the best in the bracket, the Terrapins can shoot it well from deep (37%) and feature a top-10 defense. Rebounding is the one concern for this squad, showing weakness on the boards against Michigan and Michigan State this year, and GCU has size.
Grand Canyon's advantage comes off the bench with a deeper rotation than Maryland. Getting to the line is the name of the game for this group, and that makes this a better matchup than expected, especially if Maryland's starter gets into foul trouble. Avoiding a cold shooting night is key, too. This is another upset alert matchup and could come down to the wire.
Prediction: Maryland 79, Grand Canyon 75
The final Round 1 matchup in the West Region might be the best. UConn is going for a third-straight national title and Oklahoma was undefeated against a decently strong non-conference schedule. However, OU struggled to a 6-12 record in SEC play. Both teams have high-profile freshmen leading their squads, Liam McNeely for Connecticut and Jeremiah Fears for Oklahoma.
Fears must shoot well from beyond the arc to lead the Sooners over the Huskies. UConn has a top-15 offense and Oklahoma is just outside the top 20. Connecticut plays much slower than OU, but there's no reason to expect a low-scoring game here.
Prediction: Oklahoma 85, UConn 84
Follow us @GatorsWire on X, formerly known as Twitter, as well as Bluesky, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Florida Gators news, notes and opinions.
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This article originally appeared on Gators Wire: March Madness Round 1 West Region predictions
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While the Gators may be the favorite to come out of the West Region this year, it's good to take these kinds of things one game, or round, at a time. It's one thing to be the best in the region on paper; it's an entirely different thing to actually survive a four-game gauntlet and advance.
With that said, here's a closer look (and some predictions) at the Round 1 matchups in the West, which take place Thursday and Friday.
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 16 Norfolk State - Friday, 6:50 p.m. ET
Before looking at things chronologically, Gators Wire will, of course, go out of order to look at everyone's favorite team in Orange and Blue — sorry, Auburn fans, but Florida is the true SEC representative of those colors.
The Gators enter March Madness as the best offensive team in college basketball, according to KenPom's efficiency ratings, and they're also a top-10 team on defense. The spread currently sits at -28.5 in favor of Florida, and there are only a few people in Virginia picking NSU to pull off the Cinderella upset. Florida is a legitimate national championship contender and all signs point to the Gators advancing through the first round on Friday.
Prediction: Florida 88, Norfolk State, 60
No. 7 Kansas vs No. 10 Arkansas - Thursday, 7:10 p.m. ET
Arkansas and Kansas kick off play in the West Region Thursday night, and it might end up being one of the best matchups in the first round. It's John Calipari versus Bill Self in March. How could it be a bad game? Both teams feature elite rosters that have disappointed at times this season.
This game may come down to how well Kansas plays defense. Arkansas regularly drops 80 or more points, and Kansas typically wins when it holds opponents to 73 points or fewer. Arkansas likes to play fast, and Kansas will look to slow down the pace. Heck, these two teams even disagree on how to pronounce the -Kansas part of their names. All jokes aside, it's a coin flip here depending on which version of each team shows up. Arky has some injury woes to overcome, and KU needs to find a consistent source of scoring.
Prediction: Arkansas 75, Kansas 73
No. 6 Missouri vs. No. 11 Drake - Thursday, 7:35 p.m. ET
Missouri versus Drake could be another matchup that's too close to call outright. Drake plays with the slowest pace in college basketball, and Mizzou has a top-5 offense. A style clash is the focus here, but don't sleep on Missouri's defense. The Tigers are a top-10 program in steals, and a few mistakes from Drake's offense could decide the game.
Drake's path to victory is pretty clear: stop Caleb Grill, or at least limit him from beyond the arc, and win the transition game. Second-chance opportunities are also a big factor for the Bulldogs. If Drake's undersized frontcourt can win often on the offensive glass, things will go their way. Bennett Stirtz will have to avoid a cold spell and lead the Bulldogs' scoring effort.
Prediction: Missouri 73, Drake 68
No 2 St. John's vs. No. 15 Omaha - Thursday, 9:45 p.m. ET
St. John's is a No. 2 seed in its first year under Rick Pitino and the Red Storm also boasts the most efficient defense in the country, according to KenPom. That's not a great sign for Omaha, even if the Mavericks have put together a top-100 offense en route to a Summit League Tournament Championship. Omaha's defense is also ranked in the lower third among all college basketball programs this year, giving St. John's the advantage on both sides of the ball.
Prediction: St. John's 82, Omaha 63
No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 14 UNC Wilmington - Thursday, 10:10 p.m. ET
Closing out Night 1 of Round 1 is a fun matchup between Texas Tech and UNC Wilmington. The Red Raiders have plenty of scoring options, including JT Toppin as the leader of that group. The Seahawks have size and can get to the line, which has been an Achilles heel of sorts for Tech.
This is Tech's game to lose, but it could be a lot closer than expected if UNCW can limit a top-10 offense and hit timely shots/free throws.
Prediction: Texas Tech 82, UNC Wilmington 70
No. 5 Memphis vs. No. 12 Colorado State - Friday, 2 p.m. ET
Friday's slate kicks off with another good matchup between Colorado State and Memphis. The Tigers are a top-50 team in efficiency with a slightly better defense than offense, while still boasting one of the best scorers in college hoops, PJ Haggerty, who averages 22 points per game. Memphis has several quality non-conference wins this season — Clemson, Connecticut, Michigan State, Missouri and Ole Miss — so a sizzling Colorado State team won't phase them.
The Rams are riding a 10-game win streak heading into tournament play and are coming off a Mountain West Championship. Nique Clifford is CSU's answer to Haggerty, but it's going to take a full-team effort to advance. Slowing the game down is key for the Rams, who are a bottom-third team in tempo while Memphis operates at a top-30 pace. It wouldn't exactly be an upset with CSU favored coming into the game, but it fits the 12-seed magic outline NCAA Tournament fans have come to appreciate.
Prediction: Colorado State 75, Memphis 74
No. 4 Maryland vs. No. 13 Grand Canyon - Friday, 4:35 p.m. ET
Maryland has been a fun team to watch this year out of the Big Ten. The starting five is among the best in the bracket, the Terrapins can shoot it well from deep (37%) and feature a top-10 defense. Rebounding is the one concern for this squad, showing weakness on the boards against Michigan and Michigan State this year, and GCU has size.
Grand Canyon's advantage comes off the bench with a deeper rotation than Maryland. Getting to the line is the name of the game for this group, and that makes this a better matchup than expected, especially if Maryland's starter gets into foul trouble. Avoiding a cold shooting night is key, too. This is another upset alert matchup and could come down to the wire.
Prediction: Maryland 79, Grand Canyon 75
No. 8 UConn vs. No. 9 Oklahoma - Friday, 9:25 p.m. ET
The final Round 1 matchup in the West Region might be the best. UConn is going for a third-straight national title and Oklahoma was undefeated against a decently strong non-conference schedule. However, OU struggled to a 6-12 record in SEC play. Both teams have high-profile freshmen leading their squads, Liam McNeely for Connecticut and Jeremiah Fears for Oklahoma.
Fears must shoot well from beyond the arc to lead the Sooners over the Huskies. UConn has a top-15 offense and Oklahoma is just outside the top 20. Connecticut plays much slower than OU, but there's no reason to expect a low-scoring game here.
Prediction: Oklahoma 85, UConn 84
Follow us @GatorsWire on X, formerly known as Twitter, as well as Bluesky, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Florida Gators news, notes and opinions.
.
This article originally appeared on Gators Wire: March Madness Round 1 West Region predictions
Continue reading...
