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On the morning of Memorial Day, the Atlanta Braves led the National League East by a half-game. Their winning percentage was .588. They awoke on the Fourth of July with a winning percentage of .583. Their lead over the second-place Phillies was 2 1/2 games. In bigger news, the Braves led the Nationals – long the consensus choice to win the division – by seven games. Washington has lost 16 of 21 and is no longer above .500. The Braves no longer merely occupy first place; they're now the favorite to take this. On the morning of Memorial Day, Baseball Prospectus assigned the division-leading Braves a 16 percent chance of winning the East. As of 9 a.m. July 4, BP gave them a 47.4 percent chance of
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