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For the first time since March 5 and just the sixth time this season, Maryland men’s basketball is a betting underdog. The current point spread could offer Terps faithful hope, though.
The 6 1/2-point spread for Thursday’s Sweet 16 class against No. 1 seed Florida in the NCAA Tournament matches the largest spread against the Terps this year. They were also a 6 1/2-point underdog against Illinois on Jan. 23. Maryland won that game in blowout fashion, beating an undermanned Illinois squad, 91-70.
Coach Kevin Willard and every Maryland fan in the country would sign up for that fate against the Gators. The path likely won’t be that easy, and a notable contingent of bettors doubts the Terps. Of moneyline bets tracked through sports bet tracker Pikkit, only 16.4% of them have been placed on the Terps as of Wednesday morning.
Spread: Maryland +6.5 (FanDuel)
Total: 156.5 points
Moneyline: Florida -275, Maryland +220
Of the spread bets tracked on Pikkit, just 27.7% have been placed in favor of the Terps.
What’s Maryland’s path to an upset victory and its first Elite Eight appearance since 2002?
“To have a chance at pulling off the upset, Maryland has to do two things,” Adam Burke, managing editor of VSiN.com told The Baltimore Sun. “They need to stay out of foul trouble and clean the defensive glass. The ‘Crab Five’ is a great starting lineup, but the depth really drops off in a big way, while Florida can get some productive bench minutes.
“Over the last four games, Maryland has surrendered 60 offensive rebounds, even allowing Grand Canyon to have 13 in the blowout first-round win. They can’t give Florida 15 or more second-chance opportunities.”
Covers sports betting analyst Jason Logan agrees with Burke’s assessment about rebounding being a red flag. Willard says the Terps plan to switch less defensively against the Gators, in part to avoid having Maryland’s guards boxing out Florida’s forwards and centers.
How to watch Maryland vs. Florida: March Madness game time, TV, odds and more
“Maryland allowed too many points in the paint versus Colorado State and got beat up on the boards by a smaller team,” Logan said. “The Gators have much more size inside and the Terrapins can’t let them have extra chances off offensive rebounds.”
Three Gators standing at 6 feet 10 or taller have played in the NCAA Tournament, and they rank fifth nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. Florida brings down an incredible 38.7% of its offensive rebounding opportunities. Colorado State, which had 13 offensive rebounds in the second-round game against Maryland, ranks just outside the top-250 teams nationally in the same statistic. If Colorado State reached close to 40% in offensive rebounding percentage against Maryland, what might a team like Florida do?
Burke’s favorite bet for the Sweet 16 clash is on the point total, rather than the moneyline or spread.
“My favorite bet on the game is Under 157.5,” Burke said. “Maryland’s two games in the NCAA Tournament have been played to 66 and 64 possessions, while Florida’s have played to 66 in each game. That’s a few possessions below the average regular-season tempo we saw from these two teams. They’re both far away from home in San Francisco and will be playing in an unfamiliar venue with rested legs and a lot on the line, which often leads to better defense and tighter play.”
While Logan’s favorite wager is actually a player prop on Florida guard Alijah Martin to score more than 13 1/2 points — college player props can’t be placed legally in Maryland but can in other states — he’s also backing the Terps to cover the spread. Logan says “game models call for a tighter finish than the current point spread.”
Regardless of exactly how Thursday plays out, the game should see significant action among Maryland bettors. It’s one of the men’s basketball team’s most meaningful games of the past decade, and it comes against a national title contender in the NCAA Tournament.
Have a news tip? Contact sports editor Bennett Conlin at [email protected], 410-332-6200 and x.com/BennettConlin.
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The 6 1/2-point spread for Thursday’s Sweet 16 class against No. 1 seed Florida in the NCAA Tournament matches the largest spread against the Terps this year. They were also a 6 1/2-point underdog against Illinois on Jan. 23. Maryland won that game in blowout fashion, beating an undermanned Illinois squad, 91-70.
Coach Kevin Willard and every Maryland fan in the country would sign up for that fate against the Gators. The path likely won’t be that easy, and a notable contingent of bettors doubts the Terps. Of moneyline bets tracked through sports bet tracker Pikkit, only 16.4% of them have been placed on the Terps as of Wednesday morning.
What are the odds?
Spread: Maryland +6.5 (FanDuel)
Total: 156.5 points
Moneyline: Florida -275, Maryland +220
Of the spread bets tracked on Pikkit, just 27.7% have been placed in favor of the Terps.
Experts weigh in
What’s Maryland’s path to an upset victory and its first Elite Eight appearance since 2002?
“To have a chance at pulling off the upset, Maryland has to do two things,” Adam Burke, managing editor of VSiN.com told The Baltimore Sun. “They need to stay out of foul trouble and clean the defensive glass. The ‘Crab Five’ is a great starting lineup, but the depth really drops off in a big way, while Florida can get some productive bench minutes.
“Over the last four games, Maryland has surrendered 60 offensive rebounds, even allowing Grand Canyon to have 13 in the blowout first-round win. They can’t give Florida 15 or more second-chance opportunities.”
Covers sports betting analyst Jason Logan agrees with Burke’s assessment about rebounding being a red flag. Willard says the Terps plan to switch less defensively against the Gators, in part to avoid having Maryland’s guards boxing out Florida’s forwards and centers.
How to watch Maryland vs. Florida: March Madness game time, TV, odds and more
“Maryland allowed too many points in the paint versus Colorado State and got beat up on the boards by a smaller team,” Logan said. “The Gators have much more size inside and the Terrapins can’t let them have extra chances off offensive rebounds.”
Three Gators standing at 6 feet 10 or taller have played in the NCAA Tournament, and they rank fifth nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. Florida brings down an incredible 38.7% of its offensive rebounding opportunities. Colorado State, which had 13 offensive rebounds in the second-round game against Maryland, ranks just outside the top-250 teams nationally in the same statistic. If Colorado State reached close to 40% in offensive rebounding percentage against Maryland, what might a team like Florida do?
Best bets
Burke’s favorite bet for the Sweet 16 clash is on the point total, rather than the moneyline or spread.
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“My favorite bet on the game is Under 157.5,” Burke said. “Maryland’s two games in the NCAA Tournament have been played to 66 and 64 possessions, while Florida’s have played to 66 in each game. That’s a few possessions below the average regular-season tempo we saw from these two teams. They’re both far away from home in San Francisco and will be playing in an unfamiliar venue with rested legs and a lot on the line, which often leads to better defense and tighter play.”
While Logan’s favorite wager is actually a player prop on Florida guard Alijah Martin to score more than 13 1/2 points — college player props can’t be placed legally in Maryland but can in other states — he’s also backing the Terps to cover the spread. Logan says “game models call for a tighter finish than the current point spread.”
Regardless of exactly how Thursday plays out, the game should see significant action among Maryland bettors. It’s one of the men’s basketball team’s most meaningful games of the past decade, and it comes against a national title contender in the NCAA Tournament.
Have a news tip? Contact sports editor Bennett Conlin at [email protected], 410-332-6200 and x.com/BennettConlin.
Continue reading...
