Eric, you know you and I are on the same page when it comes to offseason moves this season, and I know a McGrady trade is about as likely as me winning the lottery, but I'm just wondering why his back is such a problem to you?
My impression -- and this isn't based on any medical knowledge or statistics -- is that back trouble tends to be chronic. People who "have bad backs" are often suffering from this or the other back pain, and it's hard or impossible to strengthen the area enough to avoid the injury from coming back. Obviously McGrady can play just fine now, but what about as his back continues to deteriorate? To me, he seems to be at fairly high risk to have an abbreviated career.
It's a similar case to Vince Carter, who isn't nearly as explosive now that he has "recovered" from his recurring knee problems. I'm also reminded of Larry Bird, whose effectiveness was quite a bit reduced toward the end of his career as his back problems became overwhelming.
Regarding Bryant's shoulder, it does seem troubling that he has hurt it multiple times. On the other hand, in general, you just don't hear too much about a basketball player's career being cut short by chronic shoulder problems. That could just be chance, or it could be because that playing in the NBA isn't really all that stressful on the shoulder compared to what it does to the back. (Compare baseball pitchers, in whom shoulder trouble is common but back trouble fairly rare.)
So those are the reasons for my bias. They may not be rational, but that's what they are.
