Lefty
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This is from ESPN's Insiders:
The Jets-Bears trade -- New York swapped two first-round picks for Chicago's No. 4 pick overall -- has caused me to revise my first-round projection from earlier Friday. If more trades occur between now and the draft, check back to see my further revisions.
I project eight underclassmen (*) going in the first round, including four of the top six. Defensive line is the deepest position in this draft, and I see 10 D-lineman going in round one. Here's my up-to-the-minute forecast:
1. Cincinnati Bengals -- Carson Palmer, QB, USC
The Bengals identified the player they wanted and then signed him. Now Cincinnati has a potential franchise quarterback to build around. Head coach Marvin Lewis already has declared veteran QB Jon Kitna the starter for 2003, so Palmer won't have the pressure of a training-camp duel. I believe Kitna will be receptive to helping Palmer develop, and the young QB will assume the starter's role when he's ready.
It seems that the perception of the Bengals (i.e., Bungles) might be changing. Lewis was the defensive coordinator for the Super Bowl-winning Ravens, the architect of one of the best defenses of all time, and he brings credibility to the Bengals' organization. He's been able to attract free agents to Cincinnati, and now Palmer has a chance to help turn things around even further.
2. Detroit Lions -- *Charles Rogers, WR, Michigan State
Second-year QB Joey Harrington needs a go-to receiver, and Rogers is an ideal fit with his size-speed ratio and impressive physical ability. He's a remarkable talent who possesses Randy Moss-like potential.
3. Houston Texans -- *Andre Johnson, WR, Miami-Fla.
Johnson would be a great fit for second-year QB David Carr, but the Texans also have offensive-line woes (Carr was sacked an NFL-record 76 times as a rookie in 2002). The Texans could try to trade down, perhaps from No. 3 to 5, to take Utah OT Jordan Gross, the top left-tackle prospect. But if they stay at No. 3, Johnson is the guy.
4. New York Jets -- *Dewayne Robertson, DT, Kentucky
This was seen as the main hot spot in the first round, and that proved true as the Jets traded up. The Jets need another impact DT to work into their rotation, and Robertson is a Warren Sapp-type player. The Patriots were also in the trade mix before the Jets made their move. Robertson is the premier DT in this draft.
5. Dallas Cowboys -- Terence Newman, CB, Kansas State
This is a tough call, because new head coach Bill Parcells has a number of holes to fill. There have been some concerns about Newman's shoulder injury. Dallas could trade down or up (New Orleans might trade up to get Newman). He's a skilled cover corner, the top one in the draft.
6. Arizona Cardinals -- *Terrell Suggs, DE, Arizona State
I'm sticking with Suggs, the NCAA single-season sacks record holder. Everyone following the draft process knows about his sub-par workout -- mainly his 40-yard-dash times -- but other DEs in years past have had iffy 40 times, so Suggs' 4.85 shouldn't be a major concern. At 20 years old, Suggs is one of the youngest players in the draft, so he has plenty of potential ahead of him. Arizona's DEs had only 1½ sacks in '02, so unless the Cardinals trade down, they have to take Suggs.
7. Minnesota Vikings -- Marcus Trufant, CB, Washington State
This pick also has trade-down potential. Trufant will make an immediate impact as one of the top young corners in the league. But the Vikings also need help elsewhere on defense, and they could go for Penn State DT Jimmy Kennedy or Oklahoma State DT Kevin Williams. There's been talk lately that Williams has moved ahead of Kennedy on some teams' draft boards as the No. 2 DT behind Dewayne Robertson. The Vikings need a big DT next to Chris Hovan on their D-line.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars -- Byron Leftwich, QB, Marshall
Jacksonville needs help on defense (CB Marcus Trufant) and at offensive tackle (Jordan Gross). If Trufant is there, they need to consider him, and I believe Gross will be available here. But Leftwich would be a great pick for the Jags, since the career of QB Mark Brunell is winding down. Ironically, new Jags GM James Harris and new head coach Jack Del Rio are both from the Ravens organization, and their pick here will impact Baltimore at No. 10 (the Ravens would love to draft Leftwich).
9. Carolina Panthers -- Jordan Gross, OT, Utah
The Panthers need a right tackle more than a left tackle. Gross can play RT and he's the best offensive tackle on the board. He would provide protection for QB Jake Delhomme and would accentuate the ground game.
10. Baltimore Ravens -- Jimmy Kennedy, DT, Penn State
The Ravens desperately need a big, strong presence on their D-line. But if Leftwich is available, he'd be the Ravens' guy. Or they might try to jump ahead of the Jags -- Minnesota at No. 7 is looking to trade down -- and get Leftwich that way.
11. Seattle Seahawks -- Kevin Williams, DT, Oklahoma State
Williams is a hot commodity heading into the draft, offering versatility and skill anywhere on the D-line. If he's available, he makes sense for Seattle. A 300-pounder with 4.8 speed and quickness, he was productive in the Big 12. Seattle could not stop the run in 2002, so their major need is DT.
12. St. Louis Rams -- Boss Bailey, LB, Georgia
This might be a reach, but Bailey is one of the best athletes in the draft (47-inch vertical jump, 4.38 speed). The Rams like speedy outside linebackers, and Bailey also plays safety. He needs to improve his tackling, but he could go in this area, and the Rams make sense.
13. Chicago Bears (from Jets via Washington) -- *Johnathan Sullivan, DT, Georgia
In trading down, the Bears basically swapped one stellar SEC defensive tackle (Kentucky's Dewayne Robertson) for another (Sullivan). Sullivan was more productive and more consistent than former Georgia defensive-line standouts Marcus Stroud and Richard Seymour (though they were more gifted physically).
14. New England Patriots (from Buffalo) -- Ty Warren, DT, Texas A&M
Warren dominated games in 2002 before hurting his ankle late in the season. When he was healthy, he was one of the nation's best defensive tackles in a banner year for DTs. The Patriots' key need area is DT, and Warren has outstanding strength and explosive up-field speed.
15. San Diego Chargers -- William Joseph, DT, Miami
Considered a potential top-five pick before last season, Joseph dropped back a bit after a season that wasn't as strong as his '01 performance. But he would improve San Diego's D-line big-time.
16. Kansas City Chiefs -- Chris Kelsay, DE, Nebraska
This is a potential trade-down spot. Kelsay has intensity, focus and a great motor. He played at a high level throughout his college career. When Chiefs head coach Dick Vermeil was in St. Louis, he coached another Nebraska DE product, Grant Wistrom.
17. New Orleans Saints -- Sammy Davis, CB Texas A&M
I don't believe New Orleans will be here, because I see them trying to aggressively move up to get a more highly rated CB (Terence Newman or Marcus Trufant). But if they stay here, their main need remains CB, and Davis would be a good choice. He's a tremendous athlete who could help in nickel situations and beyond.
18. New Orleans Saints -- (from Miami) -- Nick Barnett, OLB, Oregon State
This is the curveball of my final Mock Draft. On paper, the Saints' OLBs look average. Barnett (6-2, 235) led the Pac-10 in tackles (9.3 per game) and had great workouts at the combine (4.66 in the 40, 32 bench-press reps at 225 pounds, 34½ vertical leap). One of the fastest late-risers in the draft, Barnett is an intriguing possibility in the late first round or early second round.
19. New England Patriots -- *Kwame Harris, OT, Stanford
The Patriots could use an upgrade at RT, and if they stay here, Harris makes sense. If he had stayed in school, he might have been a top-five pick in the 2004 draft, so he's a value pick here. He underachieved in 2002, but if he can sustain a high intensity level, he could become a Pro Bowl tackle.
20. Denver Broncos -- Jerome McDougle, DE, Miami
Denver is desperate for a pass-rushing upgrade -- someone to complement DT Daryl Gardener. McDougle is a natural pass-rusher, and when he was playing his best, he got after the QB as well as anyone in the nation.
21. Cleveland Browns -- Eric Steinbach, OL, Iowa
Steinbach is the best OG in this draft, and he would be an immediate upgrade. He can play guard or tackle, and the Browns especially need help at guard. He's flexible and could be a starter at guard immediately, depending on other personnel moves on the O-line.
22. Chicago Bears (from Jets) -- Andre Woolfolk, CB, Oklahoma
After DT, the Bears' next biggest need is at CB. They drafted Tuskegee CB Roosevelt Williams last year in the third round, but he's untested. If the Bears draft Sullivan at No. 13, Woolfolk would work well here. A former WR, he's still learning the CB position, but he has tremendous upside. However, the Bears might want a quarterback at this spot. If they do, possibilities include Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman or even Chris Simms (in that order).
23. Buffalo Bills (from Atlanta) -- Taylor Jacobs, WR, Florida
Jacobs is a precise route-runner with sure hands who should be able to contribute as a rookie. After losing Peerless Price to free agency, the Bills need a wide receiver to complement No. 1 receiver Eric Moulds and Josh Reed, who is expected to move up to the No. 2 spot in Price's absence. Jacobs could be the No. 3 guy.
24. Indianapolis Colts -- Troy Polamalu, S, USC
The Colts need help at safety, and Polamalu is one of the most underrated players in this draft. He's tough, hard-nosed and smart. He was one of the nation's top defensive players.
25. New York Giants -- Michael Haynes, DE, Penn State
If the Giants can't trade up -- as they have the past two drafts for Will Allen (2001) and Jeremy Shockey (2002) -- they could use a D-lineman. Haynes was one of the most productive DEs in the country. He had a great Senior Bowl and a strong workout. Ohio State DT Kenny Peterson is also a possibility for the Giants.
26. San Francisco 49ers -- Kyle Boller, QB, California
He's been on my overrated list, but at No. 26 he'd be only slightly overrated. He had a great 2002 season, but I have concerns about his accuracy (less than 50 percent in career) and his reads through the third or fourth progressions. He has the tools -- strong arm, size, 4.6 speed.
27. Pittsburgh Steelers -- Larry Johnson, RB, Penn State
The Steelers need help at cornerback, so if Andre Woolfolk is available they could take him. But if not, Johnson had a tremendous senior year (2,000-plus yards, 8 yards per carry). He's skilled at receiving and blocking. Johnson is a big back, like Jerome Bettis, and would complement situational back Amos Zereoue.
28. Tennessee Titans -- Tyrone Calico, WR, Middle Tennessee State
Tennessee could go for a receiver or center. The Titans lost WR Kevin Dyson to free agency, so Calico would be a good pick. Calico (6-3½, 222) ran a 4.27 at the combine and had a 38-inch vertical leap. He's an intriguing prospect. Another possibility is talented Tennessee WR Kelley Washington, but injury issues may keep him out of the first round. Also, Notre Dame C Jeff Faine is of the most underrated players in this draft.
29. Green Bay Packers -- *Rex Grossman, QB, Florida
The Packers need a young QB to develop as the heir apparent to Brett Favre. Grossman has a confident swagger, and I like his potential. His production dropped in 2002, but he lacked a top-notch supporting cast. If he's available late in the first round, he would be one of the steals of the draft.
30. Philadelphia Eagles -- E.J. Henderson, LB, Maryland
The Eagles need to bolster their linebacking corps. An instinctive player, Henderson is a physical presence who can be a run-stuffing middle linebacker.
31. Oakland Raiders -- *Wayne Hunter, OT, Hawaii
Hunter (6-5½, 305) is something of a wild card, which means he might be just the guy the Raiders would like to bring into the fold. He's a former defensive lineman who moved to offensive tackle. He has great physical ability and lots of upside, so he could develop into an excellent NFL left tackle. Had Hunter returned to Hawaii for his senior year, he could have been a top-10 pick in the 2004 draft. He has yet to play his best football.
32. Oakland Raiders (from Tampa Bay) -- Willis McGahee, RB, Miami
McGahee has made an amazing recovery from the serious knee injury he suffered in the national championship game. But the best approach probably is still to sit out the 2003 season and get fully healthy for 2004. McGahee rushed for 1,73 yards, scored 27 rushing TDs and averaged 13.1 yards per catch. I thought he should have won the Heisman. If he hadn't been injured, he would have been a top-three pick. The Raiders have been known for gambling with draft picks -- they could view this as a bonus pick to pay dividends down the road.
A final Raiders note: Because they also need a pass-rushing defensive end, they could opt for fast-rising Wake Forest DE Calvin Pace.
The Jets-Bears trade -- New York swapped two first-round picks for Chicago's No. 4 pick overall -- has caused me to revise my first-round projection from earlier Friday. If more trades occur between now and the draft, check back to see my further revisions.
I project eight underclassmen (*) going in the first round, including four of the top six. Defensive line is the deepest position in this draft, and I see 10 D-lineman going in round one. Here's my up-to-the-minute forecast:
1. Cincinnati Bengals -- Carson Palmer, QB, USC
The Bengals identified the player they wanted and then signed him. Now Cincinnati has a potential franchise quarterback to build around. Head coach Marvin Lewis already has declared veteran QB Jon Kitna the starter for 2003, so Palmer won't have the pressure of a training-camp duel. I believe Kitna will be receptive to helping Palmer develop, and the young QB will assume the starter's role when he's ready.
It seems that the perception of the Bengals (i.e., Bungles) might be changing. Lewis was the defensive coordinator for the Super Bowl-winning Ravens, the architect of one of the best defenses of all time, and he brings credibility to the Bengals' organization. He's been able to attract free agents to Cincinnati, and now Palmer has a chance to help turn things around even further.
2. Detroit Lions -- *Charles Rogers, WR, Michigan State
Second-year QB Joey Harrington needs a go-to receiver, and Rogers is an ideal fit with his size-speed ratio and impressive physical ability. He's a remarkable talent who possesses Randy Moss-like potential.
3. Houston Texans -- *Andre Johnson, WR, Miami-Fla.
Johnson would be a great fit for second-year QB David Carr, but the Texans also have offensive-line woes (Carr was sacked an NFL-record 76 times as a rookie in 2002). The Texans could try to trade down, perhaps from No. 3 to 5, to take Utah OT Jordan Gross, the top left-tackle prospect. But if they stay at No. 3, Johnson is the guy.
4. New York Jets -- *Dewayne Robertson, DT, Kentucky
This was seen as the main hot spot in the first round, and that proved true as the Jets traded up. The Jets need another impact DT to work into their rotation, and Robertson is a Warren Sapp-type player. The Patriots were also in the trade mix before the Jets made their move. Robertson is the premier DT in this draft.
5. Dallas Cowboys -- Terence Newman, CB, Kansas State
This is a tough call, because new head coach Bill Parcells has a number of holes to fill. There have been some concerns about Newman's shoulder injury. Dallas could trade down or up (New Orleans might trade up to get Newman). He's a skilled cover corner, the top one in the draft.
6. Arizona Cardinals -- *Terrell Suggs, DE, Arizona State
I'm sticking with Suggs, the NCAA single-season sacks record holder. Everyone following the draft process knows about his sub-par workout -- mainly his 40-yard-dash times -- but other DEs in years past have had iffy 40 times, so Suggs' 4.85 shouldn't be a major concern. At 20 years old, Suggs is one of the youngest players in the draft, so he has plenty of potential ahead of him. Arizona's DEs had only 1½ sacks in '02, so unless the Cardinals trade down, they have to take Suggs.
7. Minnesota Vikings -- Marcus Trufant, CB, Washington State
This pick also has trade-down potential. Trufant will make an immediate impact as one of the top young corners in the league. But the Vikings also need help elsewhere on defense, and they could go for Penn State DT Jimmy Kennedy or Oklahoma State DT Kevin Williams. There's been talk lately that Williams has moved ahead of Kennedy on some teams' draft boards as the No. 2 DT behind Dewayne Robertson. The Vikings need a big DT next to Chris Hovan on their D-line.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars -- Byron Leftwich, QB, Marshall
Jacksonville needs help on defense (CB Marcus Trufant) and at offensive tackle (Jordan Gross). If Trufant is there, they need to consider him, and I believe Gross will be available here. But Leftwich would be a great pick for the Jags, since the career of QB Mark Brunell is winding down. Ironically, new Jags GM James Harris and new head coach Jack Del Rio are both from the Ravens organization, and their pick here will impact Baltimore at No. 10 (the Ravens would love to draft Leftwich).
9. Carolina Panthers -- Jordan Gross, OT, Utah
The Panthers need a right tackle more than a left tackle. Gross can play RT and he's the best offensive tackle on the board. He would provide protection for QB Jake Delhomme and would accentuate the ground game.
10. Baltimore Ravens -- Jimmy Kennedy, DT, Penn State
The Ravens desperately need a big, strong presence on their D-line. But if Leftwich is available, he'd be the Ravens' guy. Or they might try to jump ahead of the Jags -- Minnesota at No. 7 is looking to trade down -- and get Leftwich that way.
11. Seattle Seahawks -- Kevin Williams, DT, Oklahoma State
Williams is a hot commodity heading into the draft, offering versatility and skill anywhere on the D-line. If he's available, he makes sense for Seattle. A 300-pounder with 4.8 speed and quickness, he was productive in the Big 12. Seattle could not stop the run in 2002, so their major need is DT.
12. St. Louis Rams -- Boss Bailey, LB, Georgia
This might be a reach, but Bailey is one of the best athletes in the draft (47-inch vertical jump, 4.38 speed). The Rams like speedy outside linebackers, and Bailey also plays safety. He needs to improve his tackling, but he could go in this area, and the Rams make sense.
13. Chicago Bears (from Jets via Washington) -- *Johnathan Sullivan, DT, Georgia
In trading down, the Bears basically swapped one stellar SEC defensive tackle (Kentucky's Dewayne Robertson) for another (Sullivan). Sullivan was more productive and more consistent than former Georgia defensive-line standouts Marcus Stroud and Richard Seymour (though they were more gifted physically).
14. New England Patriots (from Buffalo) -- Ty Warren, DT, Texas A&M
Warren dominated games in 2002 before hurting his ankle late in the season. When he was healthy, he was one of the nation's best defensive tackles in a banner year for DTs. The Patriots' key need area is DT, and Warren has outstanding strength and explosive up-field speed.
15. San Diego Chargers -- William Joseph, DT, Miami
Considered a potential top-five pick before last season, Joseph dropped back a bit after a season that wasn't as strong as his '01 performance. But he would improve San Diego's D-line big-time.
16. Kansas City Chiefs -- Chris Kelsay, DE, Nebraska
This is a potential trade-down spot. Kelsay has intensity, focus and a great motor. He played at a high level throughout his college career. When Chiefs head coach Dick Vermeil was in St. Louis, he coached another Nebraska DE product, Grant Wistrom.
17. New Orleans Saints -- Sammy Davis, CB Texas A&M
I don't believe New Orleans will be here, because I see them trying to aggressively move up to get a more highly rated CB (Terence Newman or Marcus Trufant). But if they stay here, their main need remains CB, and Davis would be a good choice. He's a tremendous athlete who could help in nickel situations and beyond.
18. New Orleans Saints -- (from Miami) -- Nick Barnett, OLB, Oregon State
This is the curveball of my final Mock Draft. On paper, the Saints' OLBs look average. Barnett (6-2, 235) led the Pac-10 in tackles (9.3 per game) and had great workouts at the combine (4.66 in the 40, 32 bench-press reps at 225 pounds, 34½ vertical leap). One of the fastest late-risers in the draft, Barnett is an intriguing possibility in the late first round or early second round.
19. New England Patriots -- *Kwame Harris, OT, Stanford
The Patriots could use an upgrade at RT, and if they stay here, Harris makes sense. If he had stayed in school, he might have been a top-five pick in the 2004 draft, so he's a value pick here. He underachieved in 2002, but if he can sustain a high intensity level, he could become a Pro Bowl tackle.
20. Denver Broncos -- Jerome McDougle, DE, Miami
Denver is desperate for a pass-rushing upgrade -- someone to complement DT Daryl Gardener. McDougle is a natural pass-rusher, and when he was playing his best, he got after the QB as well as anyone in the nation.
21. Cleveland Browns -- Eric Steinbach, OL, Iowa
Steinbach is the best OG in this draft, and he would be an immediate upgrade. He can play guard or tackle, and the Browns especially need help at guard. He's flexible and could be a starter at guard immediately, depending on other personnel moves on the O-line.
22. Chicago Bears (from Jets) -- Andre Woolfolk, CB, Oklahoma
After DT, the Bears' next biggest need is at CB. They drafted Tuskegee CB Roosevelt Williams last year in the third round, but he's untested. If the Bears draft Sullivan at No. 13, Woolfolk would work well here. A former WR, he's still learning the CB position, but he has tremendous upside. However, the Bears might want a quarterback at this spot. If they do, possibilities include Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman or even Chris Simms (in that order).
23. Buffalo Bills (from Atlanta) -- Taylor Jacobs, WR, Florida
Jacobs is a precise route-runner with sure hands who should be able to contribute as a rookie. After losing Peerless Price to free agency, the Bills need a wide receiver to complement No. 1 receiver Eric Moulds and Josh Reed, who is expected to move up to the No. 2 spot in Price's absence. Jacobs could be the No. 3 guy.
24. Indianapolis Colts -- Troy Polamalu, S, USC
The Colts need help at safety, and Polamalu is one of the most underrated players in this draft. He's tough, hard-nosed and smart. He was one of the nation's top defensive players.
25. New York Giants -- Michael Haynes, DE, Penn State
If the Giants can't trade up -- as they have the past two drafts for Will Allen (2001) and Jeremy Shockey (2002) -- they could use a D-lineman. Haynes was one of the most productive DEs in the country. He had a great Senior Bowl and a strong workout. Ohio State DT Kenny Peterson is also a possibility for the Giants.
26. San Francisco 49ers -- Kyle Boller, QB, California
He's been on my overrated list, but at No. 26 he'd be only slightly overrated. He had a great 2002 season, but I have concerns about his accuracy (less than 50 percent in career) and his reads through the third or fourth progressions. He has the tools -- strong arm, size, 4.6 speed.
27. Pittsburgh Steelers -- Larry Johnson, RB, Penn State
The Steelers need help at cornerback, so if Andre Woolfolk is available they could take him. But if not, Johnson had a tremendous senior year (2,000-plus yards, 8 yards per carry). He's skilled at receiving and blocking. Johnson is a big back, like Jerome Bettis, and would complement situational back Amos Zereoue.
28. Tennessee Titans -- Tyrone Calico, WR, Middle Tennessee State
Tennessee could go for a receiver or center. The Titans lost WR Kevin Dyson to free agency, so Calico would be a good pick. Calico (6-3½, 222) ran a 4.27 at the combine and had a 38-inch vertical leap. He's an intriguing prospect. Another possibility is talented Tennessee WR Kelley Washington, but injury issues may keep him out of the first round. Also, Notre Dame C Jeff Faine is of the most underrated players in this draft.
29. Green Bay Packers -- *Rex Grossman, QB, Florida
The Packers need a young QB to develop as the heir apparent to Brett Favre. Grossman has a confident swagger, and I like his potential. His production dropped in 2002, but he lacked a top-notch supporting cast. If he's available late in the first round, he would be one of the steals of the draft.
30. Philadelphia Eagles -- E.J. Henderson, LB, Maryland
The Eagles need to bolster their linebacking corps. An instinctive player, Henderson is a physical presence who can be a run-stuffing middle linebacker.
31. Oakland Raiders -- *Wayne Hunter, OT, Hawaii
Hunter (6-5½, 305) is something of a wild card, which means he might be just the guy the Raiders would like to bring into the fold. He's a former defensive lineman who moved to offensive tackle. He has great physical ability and lots of upside, so he could develop into an excellent NFL left tackle. Had Hunter returned to Hawaii for his senior year, he could have been a top-10 pick in the 2004 draft. He has yet to play his best football.
32. Oakland Raiders (from Tampa Bay) -- Willis McGahee, RB, Miami
McGahee has made an amazing recovery from the serious knee injury he suffered in the national championship game. But the best approach probably is still to sit out the 2003 season and get fully healthy for 2004. McGahee rushed for 1,73 yards, scored 27 rushing TDs and averaged 13.1 yards per catch. I thought he should have won the Heisman. If he hadn't been injured, he would have been a top-three pick. The Raiders have been known for gambling with draft picks -- they could view this as a bonus pick to pay dividends down the road.
A final Raiders note: Because they also need a pass-rushing defensive end, they could opt for fast-rising Wake Forest DE Calvin Pace.
