Mel Kiper's Three-round Mock

[kerouac9]

For entertainment purposes only, fellas:

First-Round Projections
1. Houston Reggie Bush, RB USC
2. New Orleans Mario Williams, DE NC State
3. Tennessee Matt Leinart, QB USC
4. N.Y. Jets D'Brickashaw Ferguson, T Virginia
5. Green Bay A.J. Hawk, LB Ohio St.
6. San Francisco Vernon Davis, TE Maryland
7. Oakland Vince Young, QB Texas
8. Buffalo Brodrick Bunkley, DT Florida St.
9. Detroit Michael Huff, DB Texas
10. Arizona Jay Cutler, QB Vanderbilt
11. St. Louis Chad Greenway, LB Iowa
12. Cleveland Kamerion Wimbley, DE/OLB Florida St.
13. Baltimore Haloti Ngata, DT Oregon
14. Philadelphia Winston Justice, T USC
15. Denver (from ATL) Chad Jackson, WR Florida
16. Miami Donte Whitner, S Ohio St.
17. Minnesota Ernie Sims, LB Florida St.
18. Dallas Jason Allen, S/CB Tennessee
19. San Diego Johnathan Joseph, CB South Carolina
20. Kansas City Tye Hill, CB Clemson
21. New England Santonio Holmes, WR Ohio St.
22. Denver (from WSH) DeAngelo Williams, RB Memphis
23. Tampa Bay Antonio Cromartie, CB Florida St.
24. Cincinnati Jimmy Williams, CB Virginia Tech
25. N.Y. Giants Kelly Jennings, CB Miami
26. Chicago Richard Marshall CB Fresno St.
27. Carolina LenDale White, RB USC
28. Jacksonville Marcedes Lewis, TE UCLA
29. N.Y. Jets (from DEN) Manny Lawson, DE/OLB NC State
30. Indianapolis Laurence Maroney, RB Minnesota
31. Seattle Ashton Youboty, CB Ohio St.
32. Pittsburgh Sinorice Moss, WR Miami

Second-Round Projections
33. Houston Eric Winston, T Miami
34. New Orleans Nick Mangold, C Ohio St.
35. N.Y. Jets Joseph Addai, RB LSU
36. Green Bay Tamba Hali, DE Penn St.
37. San Francisco Bobby Carpenter, LB Ohio St.
38. Oakland Gabe Watson, DT Michigan
39. Tennessee D'Qwell Jackson, LB Maryland
40. Detroit Davin Joseph, G Oklahoma
41. Arizona Leonard Pope, TE Georgia
42. Buffalo Taitusi "Deuce" Lutui, G USC
43. Cleveland Abdul Hodge, LB Iowa
44. Baltimore Brodie Croyle, QB Alabama
45. Philadelphia DeMeco Ryans, LB Alabama
46. St. Louis Orien Harris, DT Miami
47. Atlanta Cedric Griffin, CB Texas
48. Minnesota Kellen Clemens, QB Oregon
49. Dallas Marcus McNeill, T Auburn
50. San Diego Demetrius Williams, WR Oregon
51. Minnesota (from MIA) Chris Chester, OL Oklahoma
52. New England Brian Calhoun, RB Wisconsin
53. Washington Rocky McIntosh, LB Miami
54. Kansas City Darryl Tapp, DE Virginia Tech
55. Cincinnati Dominique Byrd, TE USC
56. N.Y. Giants Thomas Howard, LB UTEP
57. Chicago Greg Jennings, WR Western Michigan
58. Carolina Joe Klopfenstein, TE Colorado
59. Tampa Bay Andrew Whitworth, T LSU
60. Jacksonville Jason Spitz, C Louisville
61. Denver Mark Anderson, DE Alabama
62. Indianapolis Daniel Bullocks, DB Nebraska
63. Seattle Mathias Kiwanuka, DE Boston College
64. Pittsburgh Danieal Manning, DB Abilene Christian

Third-Round Projections
65. Houston Ko Simpson, DB South Carolina
66. Houston (from NO) Gerris Wilkinson, LB Georgia Tech
67. Green Bay Max Jean-Gilles, G Georgia
68. San Francisco David Pittman, CB Northwestern St. (La.)
69. Oakland Maurice Drew, RB UCLA
70. Buffalo (from TEN) Ryan O'Callaghan, T California
71. N.Y. Jets Brandon Williams, WR Wisconsin
72. Arizona Jon Alston, LB Stanford
73. Buffalo Maurice Stovall, WR Notre Dame
74. Detroit Devin Hester, CB Miami
75. New England (from BAL) Chris Gocong, DE/LB Cal Poly-SLO
76. Philadelphia Claude Wroten, DT LSU
77. St. Louis David Thomas, TE Texas
78. Cleveland Charles Spencer, G Pittsburgh
79. Atlanta Calvin Lowery, DB Penn St.
80. Dallas Charlie Whitehurst, QB Clemson
81. San Diego Paul McQuistan, OL Weber St.
82. Miami Parys Haralson, DE Tennessee
83. Minnesota Will Blackmon, WR/CB Boston College
84. San Francisco (from WSH) Victor Adeyanju, DE Indiana
85. Kansas City Brandon Marshall, WR Central Florida
86. New England Montavious Stanley, DT Louisville
87. N.Y. Giants Kyle Williams, DT LSU
88. Chicago Anthony Fasano, TE Notre Dame
89. Carolina Darnell Bing, DB USC
90. Tampa Bay Willie Reid, WR Fresno St.
91. Cincinnati Stanley McClover, DE Auburn
92. Jacksonville Jerome Harrison, RB Washington St.
93. Atlanta (from DEN) Devin Aromashodu, WR Auburn
94. Indianapolis Dusty Dvoracek, DT Oklahoma
95. Minnesota (from SEA) Le Kevin Smith, DT Nebraska
96. Pittsburgh Brent Hawkins, DE/OLB Illinois St.
97. N.Y. Jets (comp. pick) Roman Harper, DB Alabama

Fourth-Round Projections
98. Houston James Wyche, DE Syracuse
99. New Orleans Demetrice Webb, CB Florida
100. San Francisco Lawrence Vickers, FB Colorado
101. Oakland Anthony Smith, DB Syracuse
102. Tennessee Leon Washington, RB Florida St.
103. N.Y. Jets Alan Zemaitis, CB Penn St.
104. Green Bay Derrick Martin, CB Wyoming
105. Buffalo Elvis Dumervil, DE Louisville
106. New England (from DET) Guy Whimper, T East Carolina
107. Arizona Fred Matua, G USC
108. Philadelphia David Kirtman, FB USC
109. St. Louis Kevin Boothe, OL Cornell
110. Cleveland DeMario Minter, CB Georgia
111. Baltimore Dion Byrum, CB Ohio
112. Cleveland (from ATL) Rodrique Wright, DT Texas
113. San Diego Babatunde Oshinowo, DT Stanford
114. Miami Zach Strief, T Northwestern
115. Minnesota Miles Austin, WR Monmouth
116. Philadelphia (from DAL) Tarvaris Jackson, QB Alabama St.
117. N.Y. Jets (from KC) Greg Eslinger, C Minnesota
118. New England Derek Hagan, WR Arizona St.
119. Denver (from WSH) Owen Daniels, TE Wisconsin
120. Chicago Freddie Keiaho, LB San Diego St.
121. Carolina Jonathan Scott, T Texas
122. Tampa Bay Brandon Johnson, LB Louisville
123. Cincinnati John McCargo, DT NC State
124. N.Y. Giants Jeremy Trueblood, T Boston College
125. Jacksonville James Anderson, LB Virginia Tech
126. Denver Bernard Pollard, DB Purdue
127. Philadelphia (from IND) Hank Baskett, WR New Mexico
128. Seattle John Torp, P Colorado
129. Pittsburgh Andre Hall, RB South Florida
130. Denver (comp. pick) Jeremy Bloom, WR Colorado
131. Pittsburgh (comp. pick) Daryn Colledge, T Boise St.
132. Baltimore (comp. pick) Rob Sims, G Ohio St.
133. Pittsburgh (comp. pick) Omar Jacobs, QB Bowling Green

I like everything but the Cutler pick, but there's not much left on the board at that point...

 

[Russ Smith]

It's still amazing to me that Alston is being projected ahead of Oshinowo. He's got Babatunde in the 4th round now. It's strictly workouts, Alston was nowhere near the player at Stanford. Alston is a guy who played at about 210 to 215 pounds at Stanford, put on about 10 pounds, ran well at the combine and suddenly he's rocketing up and Babatunde is going down for no apparent reason.

This stuff gets me every year, Oshinowo runs a slow 40 time, which is damn near meaningless for a DT, and slips. Alston runs a scorching 40 time, which is only good if you're moving him to safety since he was too small at LB in college and will be too small in the NFL if he stays there, and he moves up.

 

[abomb]

I still cant see NO not taking a OL.

A-Bomb

 

[joeshmo]

This stuff gets me every year, Oshinowo runs a slow 40 time, which is damn near meaningless for a DT, and slips.

Had had slow agility times, 10 yard and 20 Yards splits as well. His strength numbers werent al that great as well if I remember correctly. It was just his 40 that lowered him down. That and a very much average senior bowl week of practices didnt help him either.

He has Jason Allen in the 1st to Miami. I highly doubt Allen goes in the first and may slip out of the first day. He failed his physical with Miami and Oakland. And his medical tests while at the combine were not encouraging as well.

 

[War Birds]

It's still amazing to me that Alston is being projected ahead of Oshinowo. He's got Babatunde in the 4th round now. It's strictly workouts, Alston was nowhere near the player at Stanford. Alston is a guy who played at about 210 to 215 pounds at Stanford, put on about 10 pounds, ran well at the combine and suddenly he's rocketing up and Babatunde is going down for no apparent reason.

This stuff gets me every year, Oshinowo runs a slow 40 time, which is damn near meaningless for a DT, and slips. Alston runs a scorching 40 time, which is only good if you're moving him to safety since he was too small at LB in college and will be too small in the NFL if he stays there, and he moves up.

I don't really care for either player

 

[Bada0Bing]

I still cant see NO not taking a OL.

A-Bomb

Didn't they just trade their starting LT though?

 

[Russ Smith]

Had had slow agility times, 10 yard and 20 Yards splits as well. His strength numbers werent al that great as well if I remember correctly. It was just his 40 that lowered him down. That and a very much average senior bowl week of practices didnt help him either.

He has Jason Allen in the 1st to Miami. I highly doubt Allen goes in the first and may slip out of the first day. He failed his physical with Miami and Oakland. And his medical tests while at the combine were not encouraging as well.

he did 33 reps which was 9 more than Wroten did and Wroten is rated ahead of him because he ran faster. Watson did more reps, so did Ngata. Bunkley did the most reps. Baba's 40 times aren't a whole lot slower than Ngata and Watson. the difference is if you actually saw them play in college, while Ngata and Watson were leaning on the C on a full third of the plays, Oshinowo never stops. He's not a special athlete, but he's got a motor that neither of those kids have. In fact per NFL draftscout he has comparable to better marks than Watson and Ngata in 20 yard shuttle , broad jump and 3 cone and better marks in the vertical jump. They're heavier but guess what they were both overweight most of their college careers. Baba to me is a poor man's Casey Hampton, not as good a player, but in better shape, same kind of motor.

But in this mock what gets me is Alston going that much higher. NFL draftscout has Baba going in round 2 and rated 4th at DT, ahead of Wroten, behind Ngata, Bunkley and Watson. I can live with that but behind Alston is just mind boggling to me but Kiper has been pretty consistent he's had Alston going way ahead of him for weeks.

 

[joeshmo]

Baba's 40 times aren't a whole lot slower than Ngata and Watson. In fact per NFL draftscout he has comparable to better marks than Watson and Ngata in 20 yard shuttle , broad jump and 3 cone and better marks in the vertical jump.

I was wrong about the strength stuff. But a 300 Lb man should not have comparable agility and speed tests to 330+ lb men. Shouldnt they be better. The Senior Bowl was the beginning of his demise. As one scout put it was barely noticible during practices. Not sure if he was hurt, sick, or what ever. On the ESPN practices they showed he didnt seem like the same guy as he was while at Cal.

Also I think you are getting me wrong. No need to defend him to my, I like the kid. Just pointing out reason why he has fallen in what seems to be most draft gurus eyes.

I like Oshi. The kid is a Bowling ball who once gets going just doesnt stop. Still dont think he is a 2nd rounder but I would love to grab him in the 3rd for our DT rotation.

 

[Russ Smith]

I was wrong about the strength stuff. But a 300 Lb man should not have comparable agility and speed tests to 330+ lb men. Shouldnt they be better. The Senior Bowl was the beginning of his demise. As one scout put it was barely noticible during practices. Not sure if he was hurt, sick, or what ever. On the ESPN practices they showed he didnt seem like the same guy as he was while at Cal.

Also I think you are getting me wrong. No need to defend him to my, I like the kid. Just pointing out reason why he has fallen in what seems to be most draft gurus eyes.

I like Oshi. The kid is a Bowling ball who once gets going just doesnt stop. Still dont think he is a 2nd rounder but I would love to grab him in the 3rd for our DT rotation.

Well I guess here's my point. Watson and Ngata trained really hard to get in shape for the combine and pro day, put up good numbers, and will presumably go back to being the fat lazy players they were in college. Ngata has the talent to be insanely good, but he's lazy. Oshinowo is essentially the same weight as he was in college, thats the "real" player, not one who spent weeks training to into a condition he's never been in before and probably never will be in again. He did that for the senior bowl, put on weight, and was told by scouts they wanted to see him at his playing weight so he went back to it.

Watson to me is this years Jimmy kennedy, who took a few years of being totally out of shape to finally figure out you can't get by in the NFL on just being big. Maybe they'll both prove me wrong but I judge guys at that position in large part on effort that's why I don't like those 2 and like Oshinowo, he plays hard on every down, they don't.

I'd say late 2nd to early 3rd is about right but if NFL teams put as much stock in workouts as Kiper does we'll see.

Regarding Senior Bowl, the local comments at the time were all quotes from people saying he was the most coachable kid on his team, never rested, never stopped. When he came back all you read was he impressed people, seems like until the Combine that was all you read, scouts love him, then suddenly he was a bum. NFL draftcountdown said he and Watson made plays all week in practice at the Senior Bowl, I didn't watch the game so I don't know how he played in the game but typically the practices are more important than the game.

just one of the classy kids I've seen in years, so I admit I'm biased and pulling for the kid to succeed in the NFL.

 

[SECTION 11]

I'd go Jimmy Williams if that's how 1-9 shook out.
Yep. Yepper.

 

[SECTION 11]

What is Rodrique Wright doing in the fourth round??
Am I missing something?

 

[football karma]

Question:

Lets assume the first nine go this way-- and the Cards dont like Cutler. Minnesota is supposedly in love with Cutler -- would you trade down to #17 for Minn's 2nd round pick (#48 overall). Its within 30 points (favoring AZ) on the trade chart-- so the Cards may have to throw in a 2nd day pick.

Still on the board is Justice, Ngata, Sims, Greenway and Jimmy Williams (five players but seven spots to go) -- so the Cards are taking the risk that that the move could be 2003 all over again --

 

[joeshmo]

He did that for the senior bowl, put on weight, and was told by scouts they wanted to see him at his playing weight so he went back to it.

Just wondering where you got that becuase Oshi weighed in at the sneior bowl at 302 lbs. Isnt that his playing weight, and didnt he gain a few lbs for the combine.

http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/features/seniorbowl/reports/weighin.html

Regarding Senior Bowl, the local comments at the time were all quotes from people saying he was the most coachable kid on his team, never rested, never stopped. When he came back all you read was he impressed people, seems like until the Combine that was all you read, scouts love him, then suddenly he was a bum. NFL draftcountdown said he and Watson made plays all week in practice at the Senior Bowl, I didn't watch the game so I don't know how he played in the game but typically the practices are more important than the game.

Here is what countdown said.

http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/features/seniorbowl/reports/review.html

And there was only one mention of Oshi all week long in their practice reports.

http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/features/seniorbowl/seniorbowl.html

I dont know if it was just local stuff or what but I havent seen a thing that mentions Oshi as having a good senior bowl or raising his stock. He didnt do so bad where his stock would drop but other raised there which is why Oshi stock has fallen, not becuase he has stunk in the offseason but rather others have risen their stocks.

And like it or not it is also about shopping yourself and your agent shopping you as well. Unfortunaly the draft has a lot to do with salesmenship. Just like any interview you go on. Maybe he picked the wrong agent and wasnt trained properly for the interview process or something. I think that is part of the reason Lienart fired his agent as he saw his stock slipping a little and Young and Cutler rising while he was standing still. It is an unfortunate part of the business.

 

[Russ Smith]

What is Rodrique Wright doing in the fourth round??
Am I missing something?

he's got Dumervil there too, end of the season he had Dumervil like top 15 in the draft.

I realize the draft is very fluid but that's why I hate mock drafts and projections, they change so much there's no point reading any until a week before the draft.

but then what do I know, I'm listening to 17 by Winger right now on yahoo music!

 

[Russ Smith]

Just wondering where you got that becuase Oshi weighed in at the sneior bowl at 302 lbs. Isnt that his playing weight, and didnt he gain a few lbs for the combine.

[I dont know if it was just local stuff or what but I havent seen a thing that mentions Oshi as having a good senior bowl or raising his stock. He didnt do so bad where his stock would drop but other raised there which is why Oshi stock has fallen, not becuase he has stunk in the offseason but rather others have risen their stocks.

My bad, there was a local article that I read that I thought said 320 and the next line was scouts told him to get back to his normal weight. If he was 302 then they were telling him to gain weight, not lose it. In my defense I read the paper around 6:30 most mornings I'm not always fully awake.

Nobody said he raised his stock, just that he impressed everyone because he's such a good kid and works so hard. I know both the Raiders and 49ers were quoted about how impressed everyone was with him, but that may just be a talk up the local kid angle.

One of his nicknames at Stanford was Big Lil Wayne, after the rapper, pull up a picture, imagine gold on the teeth and you'll see the resemblance. Just one of those kids I really pull for he's just the opposite of so many arrogant athletes you see these days.

Now watch he'll commit a felony this weekend.

 

[Russ Smith]

FYI I should note I'm also surprised Kiper has Marcedes Lewis in the first. Seems counter to the usual Kiper fascination with 40 times.

I can only assume he thinks there's going to be a certain number of TE's taken in the first round and that gets Lewis up that high.

I'm expecting him to go in round 2, love to see him slide to us.

 

[abomb]

Didn't they just trade their starting LT though?

Yep, that's why I see them drafting either Justice or Furguson. Mel Kiper should know better.

A-Bomb

 

[Bada0Bing]

Yep, that's why I see them drafting either Justice or Furguson. Mel Kiper should know better.

A-Bomb

Oops, I thought you said you COULDN'T see them drafting an OL. Sorry, I'll get back to posting about movies now....

 

[kerouac9]

he did 33 reps which was 9 more than Wroten did and Wroten is rated ahead of him because he ran faster. Watson did more reps, so did Ngata. Bunkley did the most reps. Baba's 40 times aren't a whole lot slower than Ngata and Watson. the difference is if you actually saw them play in college, while Ngata and Watson were leaning on the C on a full third of the plays, Oshinowo never stops.

Yeah, but did any of those other schools get beat by UC Davis?

:goags:

 

[Redrage]

I don't see New Orleans not taking D'Brick and my gut says that oakland doesn't take Young.

 

[kerouac9]

Derek Hagan's fallen all the way to the fourth round! It was only four months ago that he was the best senior WR in the draft!

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

How about Kiawanuka?? He's all the way down to the 63rd pick. Can't say he made a good decision to return to BC considering he was a top 10 pick last year.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

War Birds, you have crossed the line here. I will ask you one time to watch what you say to your fellow posters here. After that, I will be forced to give you a little break from posting.

 

[joeshmo]

Derek Hagan's fallen all the way to the fourth round! It was only four months ago that he was the best senior WR in the draft!

Several Dropped balls at the senior bowl practices, senior bowl game, and several more at the combine can do that to a WR. He literally dropped the ball when it was crunch time. At least he has his college production to fall back on, but those face to face showings in front of the GM's and coaches of the league can have a lasting impression.

 

[WildBB]

What is Rodrique Wright doing in the fourth round??
Am I missing something?

There are some really good players left in his fourth round. Man this is a deep draft.

Wright is one Eslinger is another. J. Scott and Trueblood? No way they make it that far.