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A number of sports leagues face the same issue: Modern playing styles that put increased physical demands on athletes’ bodies are contributing to an increase in injuries.
The average NBA star player in the 2020s misses more than a quarter of each season, nearly twice the number of missed games as the 2000s, when there were roughly 10 fewer possessions per game than today’s “pace and space” era. Nearly 40% of all MLB pitchers who played in 2024 have undergone Tommy John surgery (UCL reconstruction), up from 27% in 2016, as throwing velocities and spin rates have increased.
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Tennis might be next.
There have been 37 instances on the 2025 ATP Tour of a player retiring during a match or withdrawing mid-tournament prior to a match, accounting for about 6% of all matchups. That equals the highest number at this point in the tennis calendar over the past 20 years and 50% higher than the annual average of 23.8.
Novak Djokovic retired from his Australian Open semifinal versus Alexander Zverev with a muscle tear after one set and was met with boos from the crowd. Earlier in January, Reilly Opelka had to call it quits in the Brisbane International final after just 13 minutes of play.
The injury bug has not made its way to the WTA Tour, which has seen only 23 retirements or walkovers through the 2025 Indian Wells Open, just a tad higher than the 20.6 average from the past decade.
Interestingly, this outlier year in men’s tennis follows what had appeared to be a decrease in injuries. On average, there were slightly fewer retirements and walkovers in the early portion of the season between 2015 and 2024 than there had been between 2005 and 2014.
This year’s heightened total, therefore, could simply be a fluke. The sample sizes are small. Additionally, a stomach illness forced the withdrawals of multiple players from the Mexican Open in February.
There are several concerning trends, however, when it comes to player health. The first is that they are simply spending more time on court. An analysis of ATP data by The Athletic in 2023 showed that men’s Grand Slam matches are 23% longer than they were in 1999. Data from the WTA only goes back to 2008, but demonstrated a 5% increase during that time.
Changes in racket technology have led to improvements in groundstroke velocity and topspin, meaning there are more grueling rallies from the baseline and fewer serve-and-volley points than there were 20 years ago. Players are also faster than in previous eras, allowing them to extend points with their defense and keep balls in play. All in all, points have gotten longer and require more physical exertion.
A study by the Professional Tennis Players Association (PTPA) concluded that longer points increase the risk of injury. “The metric of minutes per point is notably significant,” the report said, “with injured players experiencing longer points per minute compared to the average player.”
Then there are the balls. Many players across both tours have been outspoken about the quality of the tennis balls, which vary from tournament to tournament. The consensus seems to be that the newer balls are less aerodynamic and slower, requiring more power to drive them through the court, which again adds to players’ physical toll.
“Every week, practically every week, we have different balls,” No. 3 ranked Carlos Alcaraz said at a press conference in February. “I think last year there were many injuries, many players with elbow or shoulder issues. Something needs to change. I know they will change it.”
Modern players are playing longer matches and engaging in a more demanding style of play, but they are not playing fewer matches. In fact, the average number of tournaments played by the top 100 ATP players in 2024 (25.12) was almost exactly the same as it was in 1999 (25.10).
The early injury trend in 2025 is a concern for professional tennis given that physical ailments tend to increase as the year goes on. For instance, since 2009, there have been 50% more retirements or walkovers in the men’s draw of the U.S. Open, the final major of the year, than in the Australian Open, which takes place eight months earlier in January.
And while Sportico’s analysis is limited to the first few months of the tennis calendar, a study published in the European Journal of Sport Science corroborates the overarching finding, stating that “an increasing trend in match retirements has been observed in both Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP) and Women’s Tennis Association (WTA) events, especially in recent years, indicating a growing issue in professional tennis.”
Tennis already has an unusually long season and short offseason when compared to other sports. Recently, the WTA has increased the number of mandatory tournaments on the calendar, while the ATP has also lengthened several Masters 1000 events to two weeks and provided a financial incentive for competing in more tournaments by way of a bonus pool.
“Most sports have four months off, sometimes even six,” No. 2 ranked Iga Świątek said at a press conference last August. “Our schedule is crazy, and it’s getting more crazy every year, which is scary.”
Compounding the problem is the emergence of numerous high-profile exhibition tournaments throughout the year. Alcaraz, who voluntarily participated in The Netflix Slam, the 6 Kings Slam and The Garden Cup exhibitions last year, told the BBC in September that the sport’s condensed schedule is “going to kill us in some way.”
Indeed, the aforementioned PTPA report writes that “it is imperative to consider strategic adjustments to their playing schedules” and that “reducing the number of matches and extending the intervals between tournaments could prove beneficial.”
Neither the ATP nor WTA provided comments for this story.
Andrea Gaudenzi, the chairman of the ATP Tour, suggested last fall that top players could choose to play fewer exhibition and lower-level events if they feel overtaxed, and that the eight required Masters 1000 tournaments per year is “not a lot.”
For now, the expansion of the calendar continues unabated, as the Canadian Open and Cincinnati Open will grow to 12-day events in 2025. But discussion surrounding the physical demands of the schedule has already begun, and a sustained uptick in injuries will only accelerate those talks.
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