Michael Wilson: Players Who Could Make a Leap in 2024

[daves]

Robert Mays had Trevor Sikkema from PFF on The Athletic Football Show today, and they both had Michael Wilson #2 on their list of 11 players who could "make a move" this season. Nice discussion here:

Full podcast
Michael Wilson discussion

 

[PACardsFan]

Robert Mays had Trevor Sikkema from PFF on The Athletic Football Show today, and they both had Michael Wilson #2 on their list of 11 players who could "make a move" this season. Nice discussion here:

Full podcast
Michael Wilson discussion

Like Murray, he needs to find a way to stay healthy. A healthy Murray is a superstar & a healthy Wilson is a phenomenal #2.

 

[BritCard]

I honestly believe there's a ceiling for Wilson that's Davante Adams or Keenan Allen like. He's not the fastest guy on the field but he's a craftsman. He's smart and a very good route runner.

Davante Adams wasn't Adams right away.

 

[kerouac9]

Robert Mays had Trevor Sikkema from PFF on The Athletic Football Show today, and they both had Michael Wilson #2 on their list of 11 players who could "make a move" this season. Nice discussion here:

Full podcast
Michael Wilson discussion

Matt Harmon with reception perception was on the Bill Barnwell show this week to talk breakout WRs. At the end of the show he mentioned Michael Wilson as a guy who profiled really well in their charting. Said an 800 yard-type breakout is within reach for him.

 

[BritCard]

Why laughing at Wilson's potential @kerouac9? Is believing in our players a laughing matter?

Wilson has a similar profile to someone like Adams. Tall, not overly quick, smart, good route runner. Hard worker and technician.

Adams had 28 yards per game as a 3rd round pick rookie playing with Aaron Rodgers. Wilson had 43.5 playing mostly with Josh Dobbs.

And this isn't a stats only based argument. I've seen him play. It's obvious he has and NFL skillset. He had 95 yards in his last game last year.

So why's it funny? Just so we can refer back to it in a couple of years.

 

[Garthshort]

Good News/Bad News:
It seems that the 2023 draft class are making a step up in Year Two. That's the good news. The bad news is that we might be expecting too much from the 2024 class in Year One.

 

[CardNots]

Why laughing at Wilson's potential @kerouac9? Is believing in our players a laughing matter?

Wilson has a similar profile to someone like Adams. Tall, not overly quick, smart, good route runner. Hard worker and technician.

Adams had 28 yards per game as a 3rd round pick rookie playing with Aaron Rodgers. Wilson had 43.5 playing mostly with Josh Dobbs.

And this isn't a stats only based argument. I've seen him play. It's obvious he has and NFL skillset. He had 95 yards in his last game last year.

So why's it funny? Just so we can refer back to it in a couple of years.

The only ding on Wilson’s production is he is injury prone until proven otherwise.

 

[DVontel]

Why laughing at Wilson's potential @kerouac9? Is believing in our players a laughing matter?

Wilson has a similar profile to someone like Adams. Tall, not overly quick, smart, good route runner. Hard worker and technician.

Adams had 28 yards per game as a 3rd round pick rookie playing with Aaron Rodgers. Wilson had 43.5 playing mostly with Josh Dobbs.

And this isn't a stats only based argument. I've seen him play. It's obvious he has and NFL skillset. He had 95 yards in his last game last year.

So why's it funny? Just so we can refer back to it in a couple of years.

Probably because you said his ceiling is arguably the best WR in the league.

 

[Garthshort]

Probably because you said his ceiling is arguably the best WR in the league.

Think he meant 2nd best, since MHJ is #1.

 

[slanidrac16]

I like the fact we went out and signed Zay Jones. I’m glad we didn’t head into this season hoping Wilson would stay healthy.
I think he has the potential to be a dynamic #2 Wr.

 

[BritCard]

Probably because you said his ceiling is arguably the best WR in the league.

Yeah I did. Well, once upon a time maybe.

Tell me how it's not? A ceiling is a players maximum potential. Explain to me what Wilson doesn't have that means he can't reach that?

 

[Chopper0080]

Yeah I did. Well, once upon a time maybe.

Tell me how it's not? A ceiling is a players maximum potential. Explain to me what Wilson doesn't have that means he can't reach that?

Why not Jerry Rice then?

He has a long injury history. His first season in the NFL netted 565 yards. If you want to operate under the guise of "maximum potential" that is up to you, but it comes across as absurd to me and apparently others. You have dogged Mitch previously for his ridiculous statements and positions. This comes across very similarly.

 

[BritCard]

Why not Jerry Rice then?

He has a long injury history. His first season in the NFL netted 565 yards. If you want to operate under the guise of "maximum potential" that is up to you, but it comes across as absurd to me and apparently others. You have dogged Mitch previously for his ridiculous statements and positions. This comes across very similarly.

Because I don't see them as similar players, that's why.

How, exactly, do you think things like "This scrub journeyman is going to start for us" or "Mike and Steve are getting drunk every night, I bet, I mean I can't see any other option" compares to "This guy has the size, mentality and skillset that give him a Davante Adams like ceiling"?

And the "apparently others" are you, K9 and Dvontel. The 3 musketeers of poo posting this team. Which by the way, is a minority compared to those that agreed.

Just to prove that point, Dvontel felt the need to defend K9 instead of answering for himself. Then you did the same for him. I guess it's K9s turn now.

 

[Chopper0080]

Because I don't see them as similar players, that's why.

How, exactly, do you think things like "This scrub journeyman is going to start for us" or "Mike and Steve are getting drunk every night, I bet, I mean I can't see any other option" compares to "This guy has the size, mentality and skillset that give him a Davante Adams like ceiling"?

And the "apparently others" are you, K9 and Dvontel. The 3 musketeers of poo posting this team. Which by the way, is a minority compared to those that agreed.

Just to prove that point, Dvontel felt the need to defend K9 instead of answering for himself. Then you did the same for him. I guess it's K9s turn now.

I interpreted this

Tell me how it's not? A ceiling is a players maximum potential. Explain to me what Wilson doesn't have that means he can't reach that?

as a question to any in this thread. I gave you an honest response. You can post how you want to, and I shared my thoughts. I don't believe there is a group plot to attack you. That is weird.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I interpreted this

Tell me how it's not? A ceiling is a players maximum potential. Explain to me what Wilson doesn't have that means he can't reach that?

as a question to any in this thread. I gave you an honest response. You can post how you want to, and I shared my thoughts. I don't believe there is a group plot to attack you. That is weird.

The season is approaching. Britcard has to do his training camp too before he’s really ready to insult you guys.

 

[BritCard]

I interpreted this

Tell me how it's not? A ceiling is a players maximum potential. Explain to me what Wilson doesn't have that means he can't reach that?

as a question to any in this thread. I gave you an honest response. You can post how you want to, and I shared my thoughts. I don't believe there is a group plot to attack you. That is weird.

I never said there was a group plot to attack me. I said you were the three musketeers of poo posting this team and used the fact you are taking turns to defend each other as evidence. Weird you interpreted it that way.

So just to be clear. Mike Wilson has the physical talent, intelligence and work ethic to have his ceiling set as a top tier wide receiver in my opinion. Of recent top tier wide receivers Adams is the one that I think his attributes most closely align with (height, weight, speed, style etc).

Whether he can reach that ceiling depends on many factors. The team he is on, the offense we play, the quarterback play and having MHJ to compete with for the ball are just some of them.

 

[akg102]

My gut is leading me to the doomer position.
I think Wilson's ceiling is an average #2 in the NFL.
However, I think the distribution of potential outcomes is fairly narrow. He will not be a bust, barring injury.

 

[kerouac9]

My gut is leading me to the doomer position.
I think Wilson's ceiling is an average #2 in the NFL.

There are two different things. There's the outlier, 0.001 percentile outcome. Then there's the top 20th percentile outcome, which I think is, like, an Amari Cooper-type player? Cooper had a first-round pedigree and got 130 targets his rookie season. With that kind of volume, I think Michael Wilson can be a low-end #1 (if he can stay healthy which he's literally never been able to do).

Wouldn't be surprised to see the middle of the bell curve be in the area of Muhsin Muhammad.

 

[oaken1]

Matt Harmon with reception perception was on the Bill Barnwell show this week to talk breakout WRs. At the end of the show he mentioned Michael Wilson as a guy who profiled really well in their charting. Said an 800 yard-type breakout is within reach for him.

IMO 800 yards would not be a breakout season for a guy who had 560 in 13 games as a rookie.

 

[Chopper0080]

My gut is leading me to the doomer position.
I think Wilson's ceiling is an average #2 in the NFL.
However, I think the distribution of potential outcomes is fairly narrow. He will not be a bust, barring injury.

A 3rd round pick turning into an average #2 WR is nothing to scoff at. Don't believe that is a doomer position and a very attainable level for Michael Wilson.

 

[kerouac9]

IMO 800 yards would not be a breakout season for a guy who had 560 in 13 games as a rookie.

He's gotta stay healthy. Hasn't shown that he can do it. Also, he had his best games with Dobbs at QB.

With Kyler, his 17-game stats would be 558 yards and 3 TDs. Sad! I know people are pumped about the 6-for-6, 95 yard stat line he put up against Seattle, but that was an unusual outing for him.

Just 41 players had over 800 receiving yards last season. That's above-average #2 WR production. Courtland Sutton didn't have 800 yards. That will put you on the fantasy map (which is what "breakout" really means let's be honest).

Wilson's 565 receiving yards placed him 75th in the NFL, which is mid-tier WR3. He was sandwiched between Noah Brown and Odell Beckham Jr. Both of those guys started fewer than 8 games in 2024. Wilson had fewer yards than Dontayvion Wicks while starting twice as many games.

 

[Chopper0080]

He's gotta stay healthy. Hasn't shown that he can do it. Also, he had his best games with Dobbs at QB.

With Kyler, his 17-game stats would be 558 yards and 3 TDs. Sad! I know people are pumped about the 6-for-6, 95 yard stat line he put up against Seattle, but that was an unusual outing for him.

Just 41 players had over 800 receiving yards last season. That's above-average #2 WR production. Courtland Sutton didn't have 800 yards. That will put you on the fantasy map (which is what "breakout" really means let's be honest).

Wilson's 565 receiving yards placed him 75th in the NFL, which is mid-tier WR3. He was sandwiched between Noah Brown and Odell Beckham Jr. Both of those guys started fewer than 8 games in 2024. Wilson had fewer yards than Dontayvion Wicks while starting twice as many games.

And to be fair, this offense isn't designed to be a high volume passing offense. If you believe that Wilson will be the #3 receiving option (at best) in this offense behind MHJ and Trey McBride...his numbers may potentially look underwhelming.

 

[Garthshort]

Is Aiyuk, in SF, considered their #3 receiving option?

 

[kerouac9]

Is Aiyuk, in SF, considered their #3 receiving option?

He had the most targets on the team -- 15 ahead of George Kittle; Deebo and McCaffery were all clustered around him between 90 and 83 targets.

Edit: In 2022, Aiyuk was also first in targets, with 20 more than Deebo and 28 more than Kittle.

 

[Garthshort]

Stats aside, how is is Aiyuk 'ranked' with the SF receivers? I know that he is VG, but not sure where he fits in their receiver group.