Monday Musings

Mitch

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1. I watched a local interview with Bill Belichick---the Pats' HC--on Boston TV last night. He was asked what his drafting philosophy is, and here's a summary of what he said:

A. We do not draft for need. What we have found is that when we draft for need we often wind up with players that don't fit our system or our short and long term plans and thus, we have to start all over again addressing that need the following year.

B. We have a belief that we draft players who we think will be very productive for us over a four year span, and hopefully beyond. This ties into our philsophy of not drafting for need, because your needs can change from year to year. What we might think is not a need this year, can turn out to be a need due to injuries or free agency defections.

C. He pointed out that when he was with the Giants, when he had Lawrence Taylor and what was considered to be the best LB unit in the NFL, the Giants got blasted by the media and pundits for drafting LB Carl Banks. As it turned out, he said, that pick turned out to be pretty good. Yeah, Carl Banks was one of the major reasons why the Giants went on to win a Super Bowl.

D. He said that the only time he considers need at all is when two players on the board are equally rated. But even then, he said, we still draft the player whose physical and mental strengths match what we look for in young players.

I would just add that if you look at Belichick's draft maneuvers, he is a master at trading down to acquire extra picks...and when he really really wants a player, he is more than willing to package some picks to move up, as he did last year to draft WR Chad Jackson.

Belichick plays the odds as well as any drafter...he knows there's good value across the board and he knows that the more picks you have the more flexible you are, and the more likely you are to take players who will help the team.

The Patriots have 10 picks heading into the draft. The Cardinals have six. And the Patriots have won three of the last six Super Bowls, and were in the AFC Championship last year.

2. The Alan Faneca situation in Pittsburgh is an intriguing one. Rumor has it that he is lobbying hard to get the Steelers to trade him to the Cardinals. He loves playing for Russ Grimm.

The question is: would the Steelers be willing to get something in return right now for Faneca who is sure to bolt for Arizona after this season? If so, what would the Steelers want?

Faneca is 31 years old, and he's heading into his 10th season. He's been a perennial Pro Bowler. My guess is that barring injury he's got three or four very good years left in him.

Some ASFNers have said why not just wait for Faneca next year? That's a great question. My feeling is the Cards should acquire him as soon as possible. This offensive line needs a leader in the worst possible way. Having Faneca in the players' ears along with Grimm, this o-line could go through an amazing metamorphisis.

Would I offer a swap of #5 for #15 and Faneca? Without any hesitation whatsoever. To me it would symbolize that the Cards are focused on winning right away.

We know there are other Ts in this draft that Grimm likes...he's lauded the depth.

Plus, at #15...the Cards could take LB Paul Posluszny...who, like Faneca, brings toughness and attitude.

OR--they could trade down again and add more picks,

OR--T Joe Staley...if they like him enough to take him there.

OR--at #15 it's very possible, even likely that one of the top defensive linemen will be there: Anderson, Branch, Okoye, Carricker...because it's hard to imagine that 5 of the top 14 picks will be defensive linemen.

3. If the Steelers wanted the Cardinals' #38 pick for Faneca...would you take the deal? To me, it's a no-brainer. Faneca would bring so much to the organization in terms of skill level and leadership...plus, the team would sign him to a 4 year deal...and whomever the Cardinals take at #38 would only be signed for 4 years as well...and I guarantee you, there is no one in this draft available at #38 who could play at a Pro Bowl level for the next four years...certainly none of the second-tier offensive linemen.

4. My favorite players in this draft: (based on skill, character and/or difference making, not taking projections into account)

1. RB Adrian Peterson
2. S LaRon Landry
3. LB Paul Posluszny
4. WR Calvin Johnson
5. DT Amobi Okoye
6. DE Adam Carriker
7. T Levi Brown
8. WR/PR Ted Ginn, Jr.
9. DE/OLB Anthony Spencer
10. G/T Justin Blalock
11. LB Patrick Willis
12. RB Brian Leonard

My all sleeper picks: (Day Two Steals)

QB: Jared Zabransky, Boise St.
RB: Garrett Wolfe, Northern Illinois
FB: Deon Anderson, Connecticut
WR: Derek Stanley, Wisconsin-Whitewater
TE: Kevin Boss, Western Oregon
T: Chase Johnson, Wyoming
G: Cameron Stephenson, Rutgers
C: Doug Datish, Ohio St.
DE: Marquies Gunn, Auburn
DT: Keith Jackson, Arkansas
OLB: Sam Olajubutu, Arkansas
ILB: John Abbate, Wake Forest
CB: Daniel Francis, LSU
S: Andrew Shanle, Nebraska
 
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abomb

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What happened to CB Josh Gattis?!?



:D
 
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Mitch

Mitch

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What happened to CB Josh Gattis?!?



:D

He's a FS, abomb. I have a sneaking suspicion that the good DBs in this draft are going to be gobbled up quickly and Gattis will be drafted in the third round because of his speed and range.

Or did you mean CB Josh Wilson of Maryland?

Yeah, thanks for reminding me...he's definitely in my top twenty...love that kid's speed and athelticism.
 

abomb

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He's a FS, abomb. I have a sneaking suspicion that the good DBs in this draft are going to be gobbled up quickly and Gattis will be drafted in the third round because of his speed and range.

Or did you mean CB Josh Wilson of Maryland?

Yeah, thanks for reminding me...he's definitely in my top twenty...love that kid's speed and athelticism.

No, I was thinking of Gattis. Heard him on Sirius months ago and did some research on him. He's going to be a nice value player for somebody. :)
 
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Mitch

Mitch

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No, I was thinking of Gattis. Heard him on Sirius months ago and did some research on him. He's going to be a nice value player for somebody. :)

I totally agree. I've been hoping he will be available to the Cardinals at #105 (4th).
 

Crazy Canuck

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Well, do you think Bill B... would make that #5 for #15 swap for Faneca... if he was running the Cards?

Somehow, I doubt it. He'd consider his age, and most important... that's he's in the last year of his contract and likely to leave, and be available next season.

I suggest that he'd conclude that Faneca can be had at this point for considerably less than this swap of picks.

I'd offer a #4 rounder leading up to draft day and if they said "we'll take a third..." make the deal.

If not, we'll see him in red next season.
 
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Mitch

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Well, do you think Bill B... would make that #5 for #15 swap for Faneca... if he was running the Cards?

Somehow, I doubt it. He'd consider his age, and most important... that's he's in the last year of his contract and likely to leave, and be available next season.

I suggest that he'd conclude that Faneca can be had at this point for considerably less than this swap of picks.

I'd offer a #4 rounder leading up to draft day and if they said "we'll take a third..." make the deal.

If not, we'll see him in red next season.

That's a great question, CC...which no one can answer because Belichick is never drafting at #5. But, Belichick loves to trade down because he sees equal team fits for less money.

If he had the Cards' o-line situation to deal with...I bet you he would make this deal. Adding Faneca would be a boon for any team...he's one of the top three guards in the NFL and has been for years. Plus, he loves to play for Russ Grimm, who helps keep him focused and motivated.
 

az jam

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I prefer to trade our 2nd round pick for Faneca. I don't want us drafting out of the top ten, IMO too big of a drop in talent.
 
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Mitch

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I prefer to trade our 2nd round pick for Faneca. I don't want us drafting out of the top ten, IMO too big of a drop in talent.

Agreed, az jam. Plus it looks like Pittsburgh would prefer the 2nd round deal to the move up to #5 deal.
 

Duckjake

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I prefer to trade our 2nd round pick for Faneca. I don't want us drafting out of the top ten, IMO too big of a drop in talent.

I know I'd rather have a Boldin, Dansby or Latui than Faneca. On the other hand, if we are trading a JJ Arrington or Levar Fisher then it would be ok.

:D
 

football karma

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Okay -- how bout this scenario:

1. Cards take Joe Thomas at #5
2. Trade number #38 to Pitt for Faneca
3. Five minutes after the draft ends, they send their 2008 second round pick to Chicago for Lance Briggs
 

Crazy Canuck

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That's a great question, CC...which no one can answer because Belichick is never drafting at #5. But, Belichick loves to trade down because he sees equal team fits for less money.

If he had the Cards' o-line situation to deal with...I bet you he would make this deal. Adding Faneca would be a boon for any team...he's one of the top three guards in the NFL and has been for years. Plus, he loves to play for Russ Grimm, who helps keep him focused and motivated.

Well, one may argue Bill B... doesn't draft in the top #10 is because he doesn't make hasty decisions based on the perceived needs of the moment. And, while he does have a penchant for moving around the board, I somehow doubt he'd give up a #5 for #15 given his BPA view of the overall draft.

I frankly think that you and others are really overestimating Faneca's value.

Pitt's the team with the major problem: A disgruntled player in the last year of his contract, who they will likely lose without compensation at the end of the upcoming season. As said; I'll start by offering a #4 rounder and move to a third on draft day. Take it or leave it!

I won't give up on a potential mainstay at #5, and will live with M. Brown at guard, with the hope of picking Faneca up in free agency... if the price is right.
 

Buckybird

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Okay -- how bout this scenario:

1. Cards take Joe Thomas at #5
2. Trade number #38 to Pitt for Faneca
3. Five minutes after the draft ends, they send their 2008 second round pick to Chicago for Lance Briggs

Can you say...over the cap!
 
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Mitch

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Well, one may argue Bill B... doesn't draft in the top #10 is because he doesn't make hasty decisions based on the perceived needs of the moment. And, while he does have a penchant for moving around the board, I somehow doubt he'd give up a #5 for #15 given his BPA view of the overall draft.

I frankly think that you and others are really overestimating Faneca's value.

Pitt's the team with the major problem: A disgruntled player in the last year of his contract, who they will likely lose without compensation at the end of the upcoming season. As said; I'll start by offering a #4 rounder and move to a third on draft day. Take it or leave it!

I won't give up on a potential mainstay at #5, and will live with M. Brown at guard, with the hope of picking Faneca up in free agency... if the price is right.

Wow, CC. Have you watched Faneca in action? This guy is a premier offensive guard...premier. You want to run the ball? This guy hammers the opponents, no matter who he lines up against.
 

lobo

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Okay -- how bout this scenario:

1. Cards take Joe Thomas at #5
2. Trade number #38 to Pitt for Faneca
3. Five minutes after the draft ends, they send their 2008 second round pick to Chicago for Lance Briggs


Send me some of that stuff too!
 

joeshmo

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Just going off of what Pitt fans are expecting in a possible trade according to a message board. Fans that usually over estimate what they can get for a player mind you, are thinking they can get a 3rd rounder for him. For what its worth Pitt fans did not like their OL play last year. They want to get rid of Max Starks as well. They didnt run the ball like they usually do last year and the unit as a whole got Ben killed with horrible pass blocking. They also think their draftee Kemo can fill in for the ageing Faneca and not loss much.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol.php

Now I personally think they have some hard feelings for Faneca not showing up to camp but i do think their is a little bit of truth to what they are saying when it comes to their line play as a unit.

Moving up from 15 to 5 is a huge jump. It puts a low first round grade on him. Although I love the guy, you cant just take into account him being a pro bowler, you also have to take into account - he is an OG, the age of 31, playing for 10 years, and the contract he will demand to have in an extension. He is not worth a late 1st rounder with that in mind. Pitt will have to throw in another 2nd day pick to make it worth while, or a conditional 2008 pick.

Now even if the trade perameters were to be agreed on there are still several hurdles in the way of a trade like this happening.

1. Do you really think the usually stingy with their money Steelers will want to pay top 5 pick money, especially after just giving Faneca his roster bonus, money they will have to eat.

2. Do you think a contract extension can be hammered out from now to Saturday. Because no deal would be made unless a extension was in place, if their wasnt the Cards would be idiots.

3. Lets say there was no time to make an extension from now to then and we still pulled off the deal. We do not have enough cap space to take on his base salary and will have to make 3-4 mill. worth of cuts just to sign our rookies, completely ruining the depth that Wiz has worked so hard to get.

I wouldnt mind at all giving up a 2nd for him if Pitt threw in a 2008 2nd day conditional pick as well. But I just dont think this scenerio or any other involving Faneca is a very likely one when all things are considered.
 

joeshmo

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Just a little fun stat for NE that completely shocked me. They have the most percentage of draftee's that are no longer in the league then any other team. They are also bottom 5 with the most percentage of draftee's that are still in the league but not on their team. This is out of all the drafts in the 2000's.
 

Crazy Canuck

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Wow, CC. Have you watched Faneca in action? This guy is a premier offensive guard...premier. You want to run the ball? This guy hammers the opponents, no matter who he lines up against.

Yes, I have and refer you to Joeshmo's answer.
 

vinnymac

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I am just curious why the Steelers fans weren't happy with there running game. Parker went to the pro-bowl with over 1400 yards. I thought they did pretty good.
 

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Question

Mitch, not to nit-pick, but if we trade down to 15, you said a top DL might be available, because it's hard to imagine that five DL's will go in the first 14 picks. But isn't just as hard to think that five will go in the top 15?
 

RugbyMuffin

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Just a little fun stat for NE that completely shocked me. They have the most percentage of draftee's that are no longer in the league then any other team. They are also bottom 5 with the most percentage of draftee's that are still in the league but not on their team. This is out of all the drafts in the 2000's.

I was about to say.

What makes the Patriots so incredible when it comes to the draft. I am sorry but they make their do with mid-level free agents more than they do in the draft. If they drafted sooo well why did they spend so much on Free Agents this year.

Yeah, they won superbowls but Billy B's drafting has been as mediocre as you can get.
 
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Mitch

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Mitch, not to nit-pick, but if we trade down to 15, you said a top DL might be available, because it's hard to imagine that five DL's will go in the first 14 picks. But isn't just as hard to think that five will go in the top 15?

It appears the trade down to #15 is moot, as Pittsburgh has said they do not want to trade up.

If the Cardinals were to trade in that area, the four players that jump out at me are LB Paul Posluszny, T Joe Staley, CB Darrelle Revis and S Reggie Nelson.

I have a hunch that DE Jamaal Anderson will slide to the middle to late portions of round one. And he would be a great fit for the Cards' defense as a LDE in the 4-3 and 3-4 DE.

All this said...it looks like the Cards will take Joe Thomas at #5 if he's available...or will try to trade down a couple of slots to then take T Levi Brown. If they don't get an offer they like, they will probably take Levi Brown at #5 and I don't think anyone (Mel, Mort, Boomer, Mayock, etc.) will have a problem with that, seeing as everyone expects the Cardinals to take a tackle in round one.
 
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