more Biedrins

[pokerface]

I copied this out of ESPN magazine on Biedrins...

Name the last star to come from Latvia. You can think about it for a minute. Go on. Exactly. And that's what nags many GMs in the NBA about Biedrins. He is a drop-step dunker, a long, lean shotblocker and a hard worker, but as raw goes he's two steps beyond sushi. Scouts say Biedrins, 18, projects as a PF, but one team official says, "If he doesn't become a center, his value drops." That's because he's a 38.5% free throw shooter whose range stretches to 10 feet, max. It doesn't help that he has no go-to post move. Some even say he skipped the Hoop Summit in San Antonio, an annual matchup of top Europeans and the best U.S. Preps, to avoid damaging his stock. But others say recently added bulk combined with his agility and coordination will get him into the lottery. A lefty with crafty moves under the basket is always a hot commodity. Five years ago, he'd have been a nice Ginobili-like choice, a second rounder kept in Europe so he could evolve. Times have changed.

 

[George O'Brien]

It's going to be a tough call. Biedrins is probably not ready to produce right away. At best, he would get maybe 400-500 minutes first year and maybe 1200 minutes second year. I think that is a lot more than MA or Pavel would get, but not enough to make a huge difference in the team's record.

I would not be shocked if the Suns decided that all three were simply too much "deep projects" for them to use a #7 on. A trade down with a team like Boston at #15 might make sense if they want'ed to go for a project center, but I would not be surprised if the Suns went for a safer mid sized guy.

That being said, I think Biedrins remains a real possibility. He is very long, very athletic, and very aggressive. I think he could be a good fit for the Suns, but might require more patience than I had originally hoped. But by all accounts, it would not be nearly as much patience as MA and Pavel would require.

 

[pokerface]

It's going to be a tough call. Biedrins is probably not ready to produce right away. At best, he would get maybe 400-500 minutes first year and maybe 1200 minutes second year. I think that is a lot more than MA or Pavel would get, but not enough to make a huge difference in the team's record.

I would not be shocked if the Suns decided that all three were simply too much "deep projects" for them to use a #7 on. A trade down with a team like Boston at #15 might make sense if they want'ed to go for a project center, but I would not be surprised if the Suns went for a safer mid sized guy.

That being said, I think Biedrins remains a real possibility. He is very long, very athletic, and very aggressive. I think he could be a good fit for the Suns, but might require more patience than I had originally hoped. But by all accounts, it would not be nearly as much patience as MA and Pavel would require.

They're all projects so they should go with Pavel...more upside. Biedrins would be too short to play C out west.


I doubt the Suns trade down. They probably would trade out of the draft entirely first to avoid any more payroll.

 

[George O'Brien]

They're all projects so they should go with Pavel...more upside. Biedrins would be too short to play C out west.


I doubt the Suns trade down. They probably would trade out of the draft entirely first to avoid any more payroll.

I keep hearing Pavel has more "upside", but other than his size I have not heard anything to support that. He did very little on his team in Italy, does not have great movement on his feet on defense, is not aggressive on the boards, does not block many shots for a guy his size, and has serious health risks.

"But he is big and can shoot from the outside". Yes, but I don't want someone that size shooting form the outside. He should be trying to dunk every chance he gets to force opponents to foul.

In the camp in Italy a few weeks ago, Pavel looked good against some undersized Euros. BUT he could only play in five minute increments due to poor conditioning.

Pavel is not Yao. Yao was a proven star at the international level playing for China before coming to the NBA. He was older and a lot better prepared. Pavel has no high level experience and has not really translated his workout skills to team play.

 

[pokerface]

Biedrins isnt anything...just another undersized C and a project to boot. If we are going to make an error I'd rather it be with size and take our chances. I could care less Pavel isnt ready...he's a gamble as are the others. If he was more of a sure thing then he'd go #1 and we'd have no chance. Because Pavel is iffy is the only reason we might have a chance at him in the first place. Goes with the territory of having a #7 pick.

 

[F-Dog]

I would take Andriuskevicius before either of them. If AK pulls out, I hope the Suns go small.

Anyway, here's another blurb regarding Biedrins:

The Bulls held an interesting workout today when they brought in lotto-bound Andris Biedrins of Latvia, Serbian high school player Robert Rothbart, Russian small forward Viktor Khryapa, Justin Reed of Ole Miss and Western Carolina's Kevin Martin.
The workout was somewhat akward, as there were five players invited, but only four were allowed on the floor at the same time. It didn't give the players a very good chance to show off their individual skills and nobody really stood out all that much.

Andris Biedrins showed soft hands, a great nose for the ball, excellent footwork, nice passing skills, and a real fighting attitude. He reminds scouts of somewhat of a taller, more defensive David Lee with a much better motor. Like Lee, he is left handed and very nimble, but can't shoot outside of five feet. He looks like a ripped high school player. You hope that he will look to polish his all around game but there is a chance that he won't. If fouls were recorded for the duration of the workout, he probably would have fouled out fifteen times over. You love his agressiveness but he really needs to learn how to use it better. The great thing about him is that he is somewhat of an anti-European power forward based on the fact that he wants to be a post player and he is willing to take and dish out the contact that comes with the role.

Draft City


Biedrins still sounds like he's going to be a good player, but he also still sounds like he wouldn't be worth more than, say, Chris Anderson for the first two or three years of his rookie contract. Long term, the key to his value for most teams will be whether he can play center...which is pretty much the key to his value to the Suns, as well.

 

[George O'Brien]

Biedrins isnt anything...just another undersized C and a project to boot. If we are going to make an error I'd rather it be with size and take our chances. I could care less Pavel isnt ready...he's a gamble as are the others. If he was more of a sure thing then he'd go #1 and we'd have no chance. Because Pavel is iffy is the only reason we might have a chance at him in the first place. Goes with the territory of having a #7 pick.

There are gambles and there are gambles. All draft picks are gambles, but some are much more of a gamble than others.

With Biedrins, no one doubts he will be a productive NBA player. He is long, athletic and plays very hard. There are a LOT OF QUESTIONS as to whether Pavel will be any kind of player much less a good one. I think there is a far larger chance Pavel will be a total bust than a starting center.

 

[elindholm]

With Biedrins, no one doubts he will be a productive NBA player.

Huh? What do you base this on? Three or four scouting reports predicting that he will be productive?

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

I highly doubt that Biedrins, MA or Pavel will warrant their lottery selections. MAYBE 1 of the 3 players will payoff a few years down the road, but not now.

 

[George O'Brien]

I highly doubt that Biedrins, MA or Pavel will warrant their lottery selections. MAYBE 1 of the 3 players will payoff a few years down the road, but not now.

If you mean being immediately productive, I would agree. I am having to put my faith in the Colangelos evaluation. If they think that Biedrins is too far from being a player, they would be advised to go with one of the college guys who will almost certainly play some next season.

When it gets down to it, I am less "pro" Biedrins as I am "anti" MA and Pavel. MA and Pavel are light years from being ready to do anything.

 

[Joe Mama]

I highly doubt that Biedrins, MA or Pavel will warrant their lottery selections. MAYBE 1 of the 3 players will payoff a few years down the road, but not now.

That is where my feelings are on these three right now. It sure sounds like Biedrins is years away from contributing.

Joe Mama

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Immediatly, I think none of them does a thing.

MAYBE, 1 of them will warrant a lottery pick, but I have several doubts about even that.

 

[George O'Brien]

Immediatly, I think none of them does a thing.

MAYBE, 1 of them will warrant a lottery pick, but I have several doubts about even that.

BTW, I was very disappointed that Biedrins did not get "measured" at Chicago. Draft City has him at 7'0" 238 while others list him at 6'11" and even 6'10". The weight is based on relatively old data as well.

I think it is really possible that he has a deal with some lottery team, which is why he ducked out of Chicago and hasn't been reported doing workouts for at least a couple of weeks.

There is also a real chance than all the Euros will pull out. Perovic has been widely reported to have pulled and it is generally figured that MA has as well. If it appears that Pavel and Biedrins stock is dropping, they may pull out as well. I haven't heard much about Samardziski and it is widely reported that Splitter is pulling out.

We will know on Thursday.

 

[pokerface]

There are gambles and there are gambles. All draft picks are gambles, but some are much more of a gamble than others.

What are you talking about? Do you really think taking a chance on a 7-5 300 lbs guy is so so chancy? I mean granted he's risky but we do need a center and if he even works out to half his potential that could be a major gain for the Suns. I read on Pavel too that he knows English so that might help his learning curve a little.

I think we are in a perfect situation to take a chance on Pavel..If he's a total bust we are still in a great situation with our young talented players anyway. If Pavel panned out we could really go somewhere. I'm sure it will some time for Pavel to be effective but so what. How many years have we been without an adequete center already?? Somehope is better than no hope!

If Okur showed more promise I'd ease up on wanting Pavel but its not looking that way.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

What are you talking about? Do you really think taking a chance on a 7-5 300 lbs guy is so so chancy? I mean granted he's risky but we do need a center and if he even works out to half his potential that could be a major gain for the Suns. I read on Pavel too that he knows English so that might help his learning curve a little.

Well, even if Pavel turns out to be decent, and that is a BIG if, who cares? I mean he won't fit in with this team's style of play. He isn't a run and gun center. He definitely isn't mobile enough to play with our current core.

Not to mention this guy has bad ankles. That was a big deal this time last year before he pulled out. I am really surprised it hasn't been brought up more.

 

[pokerface]

I'd look at this as a bigger gamble if we had a top 2 pick and took Pavel but at #7 pick the risk feels about right to me.

If we dont take Pavel then I hope we get a PG like Harris or Gordon. The PG's seem more ready to contribute than anyone else at our slot.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Pavel has been described repeatedly as mobile and likes to play in the post by people who have seen him play.

 

[SunsTzu]

I haven't seen either Pavel or Biedrins play, but based on the various scouting reports I like the idea of getting Biedrins. The only place I've seen him listed 6'10 is on espn.com and even there Chad Ford claims he is 7' which if true I don't see him being undersized. He is also said to to have a 34.5 vert which is very good for someone his size. More importantly though he is a natural shot blocker and rebounder.

I believe Lampe could develop into a high post center and like the idea of getting a defensive big man prospect. I am also wary of Pavel because scouts knew about him last year and told him the areas he needed to improve to transition to the NBA. I haven't heard any reports this year that his post game, rebounding or defense has improved.

Given the Suns recent draft record though I'll trust their decision whatever that decision may be.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

The problem with Pavel is that he is just two years away from ever having picked up a basketball in his life. The kid was a farmer in Siberia.

Since then, he had to move to Italy and there he was used predominantly as a screen and roll center for the guards. This is why he has learned to shoot so well. In fact, in his last workout, Utah had him shoot from the International 3 point line and he went 18-25, good enough for second best in the camp and better than most of the guards.

He also is reported as an outstanding passer since again that was the offense that was run. His team would ignore him when he tried to establish position down low.

However, he continues to dominate in his workouts. His size to athleticism is off the charts...he just has had virtually no proper coaching.

I think if you take Pavel, it is with the understanding that ANYTHING you get from him this year is gravy, but he has as much potential to be a real player as anyone in the draft.

 

[pokerface]

If anyone were in a position to take an outlandish gamble it would be the Suns IMO. Other Lottery team seem more in dire straits than us...we can afford to take a chance.

Its not like I want us throwing our pick away. If the Suns workout Pavel and dont like him I'll trust their judgement. Maybe Biedrins is indeed the way to go as he seems to have some nice qualities that could gel well with the Suns. I just want Pavel to get every consideration before we even think of passing up on him.

The whole point is probably moot as I'd give us even money chances of trading out of this years draft.

 

[Joe Mama]

Here's the way I see it with regards to these big European players. None of us have seen him play. We are relying on scouting reports from a bunch of people on the Internet. Chad Ford has a tendency to overhyped these players, and even he has no trouble finding their weaknesses. I figure if the Suns take one of them I'll assume that he is closer to the good reviews we have read. I'll also figure that he is closer to contributing than many of these reports are saying. I'll trust the Phoenix Suns Scouts because they have done pretty well in the past, and they have actually seen these guys play.

In the end I think the Phoenix Suns will probably just trade the draft pick or take one of the following players.

Iguodala
Harris
Gordon
Josh Smith

Joe Mama

 

[George O'Brien]

Here's the way I see it with regards to these big European players. None of us have seen him play. We are relying on scouting reports from a bunch of people on the Internet. Chad Ford has a tendency to overhyped these players, and even he has no trouble finding their weaknesses. I figure if the Suns take one of them I'll assume that he is closer to the good reviews we have read. I'll also figure that he is closer to contributing than many of these reports are saying. I'll trust the Phoenix Suns Scouts because they have done pretty well in the past, and they have actually seen these guys play.

In the end I think the Phoenix Suns will probably just trade the draft pick or take one of the following players.

Iguodala
Harris
Gordon
Josh Smith

Joe Mama

I am getting scared off of Harris due to him being only 170 pounds. I don't see him being able to play defense for a while at that size, so I'd rather hope that Vujanic can be taught to play D.

I am more encouraged about Gordon because I think he CAN become a good defender pretty early due to his strength and weight.

 

[Joe Mama]

I am getting scared off of Harris due to him being only 170 pounds. I don't see him being able to play defense for a while at that size, so I'd rather hope that Vujanic can be taught to play D.

I am more encouraged about Gordon because I think he CAN become a good defender pretty early due to his strength and weight.

first of all, if they put him on a program he will probably be 5-10 pounds heavier by the beginning of the season. Secondly, weight is not nearly as important for point guards as it is for frontcourt players. In fact you probably affects him on offense even more than defense. That said, I'm not sure I would prefer Gordon over Harris. I figure the Phoenix Suns will get a good luck Both of them and the side for themselves. I trust their evaluation of point guards though.

Joe Mama

 

[sunsfn]

I am getting scared off of Harris due to him being only 170 pounds. I don't see him being able to play defense for a while at that size, so I'd rather hope that Vujanic can be taught to play D.

I am more encouraged about Gordon because I think he CAN become a good defender pretty early due to his strength and weight.

NBAdraft.net & Draft city have Harris at 185 pounds.

Livingston is 6'7" and weighs 175!! Although he is supposed to have put on about 10 pounds since graduating.

I think unless the suns are in love with Beidrens or Pavel, if Livingston is available on the 7th pick they will take him, if not, Harris??

 

[George O'Brien]

NBAdraft.net & Draft city have Harris at 185 pounds.

Livingston is 6'7" and weighs 175!! Although he is supposed to have put on about 10 pounds since graduating.

I think unless the suns are in love with Beidrens or Pavel, if Livingston is available on the 7th pick they will take him, if not, Harris??

I got the 170 pounds for Harris from the Chicago Combine numbers.

BTW, I am even more concerned about Livingston being too light. I realize Joe doesn't agree, but I think strength is a huge advantage for PG's. It is possible for a smaller guy to be really strong, but at 170 it is really difficult to keep other PG's from breaking them down.