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This is a bit of a different take on why teams must take a QB in rd1 to get a Franchise QB.
http://rob-rang.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/view/13682485/2
Posted on: March 7, 2011 10:49 am
Edited on: March 7, 2011 11:10 amScore: 102
Log-in to rate:Log-in to rate:Log-in to rate:When to pick a QB?
Quarterbacks are usually the main topic of conversation in any draft, but many around the league are talking up this year's class is one of the deepest we've seen in quite a while.
The debate between whether Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert should be the number one pick is just beginning--and is only likely to get stronger as we approach the draft. Note Rob Rang's earlier blog post on how split teams are regarding which of the two big, strong-armed passers are on the top of their board.
Many fans and media members believe that "bargains" will be found in the late first or second round (Washington's Jake Locker, FLorida State's Christian Ponder, Arkansas' Ryan Mallett) or later in the draft (Nevada's Colin Kaepernick, TCU's Andy Dalton, or Alabama's Greg McElroy).
History tells us, however, that it's unlikely you'll find an elite starter, or even a reliable one, once you've passed the top two quarterbacks in any draft.
Over the past twenty drafts, the top two quarterbacks have started 10 or more games an average of four years during their career. That might seem like a low number, but for every elite passer like Peyton Manning and likely long-term starters with a chance to be elite in Matt Ryan and Sam Bradford, there are the less successful stories of Tim Couch, JaMarcus Russell and Alex Smith.
The second QB picked in the last twenty draft isnt' far behind, averaging nearly four years of starting (3.8 vs. 4.1 for #1 passers) and accumulated 18 Pro Bowl appearances against 20 for the top-rated thrower. Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, and possibly even Mark Sanchez help this group overcome the disappointing careers of Joey Harrington, Byron Leftwich, and Ryan Leaf.
There is a fair drop-off after the top two quarterbacks, however, with the third-selected player averaging just 2.2 years starting and the group gaining 13 Pro Bowl appearances. Brett Favre is the major contributor to this group, as the numbers drop to 1.3 and two, respectively, without his long-time NFL run. Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler, and Josh Freeman are trying to boost those figures, but Bady Quinn and Matt Leinart probably won't help their cause.
For the rest of the top nine quarterbacks over the past twenty drafts (#10 and above have very few starters or Pro Bowlers):
#4: 1.45 average yrs starting, 7 Pro Bowl appearances (Mark Brunell, Daunte Culpepper the main names among the 20 picks)
#5: 1.25, 5 (Marc Bulger, Matt Schaub, David Garrard, Brian Griese)
#6: 0.45, 1 (Gus Frerotte)
#7: 1.35, 10 (Tom Brady, Matt Hasselbeck)
#8: 0.30, 2 (All starts, Pro Bowls by Trent Green)
#9: 0.6, 1 (Jeff Blake)
The odds, therefore, of finding a quarterback to lead a team for four or more years outside the top two passers taken in any draft are simply not on teams' side. The Tom Brady outlier gives people ancedotal evidence to hold out hope, but the fact is that 20 percent of #3 quarterbacks turn out to be regular starters (with quality ranging from Ben Roethlisberger to Jason Campbell) and that number drops to 10 percent or less of all other quarterbacks selected.
Even in years where the third-sixth-rated passers end up first round picks, as some believe Locker, Mallett and Ponder will be this year, the success of passers outside the top two is not great.
You can hope to find the next Big Ben with the third passer taken in the mid-first, but Akili Smith (at #3), Kyle Boller (19) and Patrick Ramsey (31) are others dragging down the percentages. The 1999 draft including Smith did provide the Vikings Daunte Culpepper, but Rex Grossman, J.P. Losman, Browning Nagle and others show the athletic or strong-armed quarterback usually won't panned out as expected.
Another opinion trending among NFL draft followers is that eight quarterbacks will be selected in the top three rounds, which hasn't happened in recent draft history. In 1999 and 2006, seven quarterbacks were selected in rounds one-through-three. The underwhelming careers of 1999 class alums for talented college QBs Shaun King and Brock Huard, as well as 2006 picks Tarvaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst, and Brodie Croyle still trying to prove themselves five year later, show that second and third round picks seen as having "upside" often just can't become regular starters.
NFL coaches are given quick three-year tenures in today's win-now NFL, so they push for a potential starting linebacker, cornerback, or receiver in the second and third rounds instead of a quarterback that needs a year or two of seasoning (which they probably won't have the luxury to get).
And remember how a lot of people expected Jimmy Clausen to be a first round pick last year, Colt McCoy put on a late push for a top 40 spot, while Dan LeFevour and Tony Pike were probable second or third round selections? Clausen's off-field issues pushed him into the second round, McCoy went in the third, and LeFevour and Pike both fell to the sixth.
It is possible that the 2011 quarterback draft class approaches the 1999 group, which had five passers taken in the top 12 overall selections, but the erratic play of Locker, off-field questions about Mallett, and Ponder's arm issues--along with strong defensive talent in his draft and teams' knowledge of the lack of success of quarterbacks outside of the top two--makes it more likely three signal callers hear their name called in the first round, two more may go in the second, while Kaepernick, Dalton and others will have to wait until the third or fourth rounds.
--Contributed by NFLDraftScout.com Senior Analyst Chad Reuter
What I get out of this is if you draft a QB after the first two taken in that draft then it's long odds on them amounting to anything. In some drafts maybe the 3rd QB taken will be good but after that stay away from QB's.
http://rob-rang.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/view/13682485/2
Posted on: March 7, 2011 10:49 am
Edited on: March 7, 2011 11:10 amScore: 102
Log-in to rate:Log-in to rate:Log-in to rate:When to pick a QB?
Quarterbacks are usually the main topic of conversation in any draft, but many around the league are talking up this year's class is one of the deepest we've seen in quite a while.
The debate between whether Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert should be the number one pick is just beginning--and is only likely to get stronger as we approach the draft. Note Rob Rang's earlier blog post on how split teams are regarding which of the two big, strong-armed passers are on the top of their board.
Many fans and media members believe that "bargains" will be found in the late first or second round (Washington's Jake Locker, FLorida State's Christian Ponder, Arkansas' Ryan Mallett) or later in the draft (Nevada's Colin Kaepernick, TCU's Andy Dalton, or Alabama's Greg McElroy).
History tells us, however, that it's unlikely you'll find an elite starter, or even a reliable one, once you've passed the top two quarterbacks in any draft.
Over the past twenty drafts, the top two quarterbacks have started 10 or more games an average of four years during their career. That might seem like a low number, but for every elite passer like Peyton Manning and likely long-term starters with a chance to be elite in Matt Ryan and Sam Bradford, there are the less successful stories of Tim Couch, JaMarcus Russell and Alex Smith.
The second QB picked in the last twenty draft isnt' far behind, averaging nearly four years of starting (3.8 vs. 4.1 for #1 passers) and accumulated 18 Pro Bowl appearances against 20 for the top-rated thrower. Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, and possibly even Mark Sanchez help this group overcome the disappointing careers of Joey Harrington, Byron Leftwich, and Ryan Leaf.
There is a fair drop-off after the top two quarterbacks, however, with the third-selected player averaging just 2.2 years starting and the group gaining 13 Pro Bowl appearances. Brett Favre is the major contributor to this group, as the numbers drop to 1.3 and two, respectively, without his long-time NFL run. Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler, and Josh Freeman are trying to boost those figures, but Bady Quinn and Matt Leinart probably won't help their cause.
For the rest of the top nine quarterbacks over the past twenty drafts (#10 and above have very few starters or Pro Bowlers):
#4: 1.45 average yrs starting, 7 Pro Bowl appearances (Mark Brunell, Daunte Culpepper the main names among the 20 picks)
#5: 1.25, 5 (Marc Bulger, Matt Schaub, David Garrard, Brian Griese)
#6: 0.45, 1 (Gus Frerotte)
#7: 1.35, 10 (Tom Brady, Matt Hasselbeck)
#8: 0.30, 2 (All starts, Pro Bowls by Trent Green)
#9: 0.6, 1 (Jeff Blake)
The odds, therefore, of finding a quarterback to lead a team for four or more years outside the top two passers taken in any draft are simply not on teams' side. The Tom Brady outlier gives people ancedotal evidence to hold out hope, but the fact is that 20 percent of #3 quarterbacks turn out to be regular starters (with quality ranging from Ben Roethlisberger to Jason Campbell) and that number drops to 10 percent or less of all other quarterbacks selected.
Even in years where the third-sixth-rated passers end up first round picks, as some believe Locker, Mallett and Ponder will be this year, the success of passers outside the top two is not great.
You can hope to find the next Big Ben with the third passer taken in the mid-first, but Akili Smith (at #3), Kyle Boller (19) and Patrick Ramsey (31) are others dragging down the percentages. The 1999 draft including Smith did provide the Vikings Daunte Culpepper, but Rex Grossman, J.P. Losman, Browning Nagle and others show the athletic or strong-armed quarterback usually won't panned out as expected.
Another opinion trending among NFL draft followers is that eight quarterbacks will be selected in the top three rounds, which hasn't happened in recent draft history. In 1999 and 2006, seven quarterbacks were selected in rounds one-through-three. The underwhelming careers of 1999 class alums for talented college QBs Shaun King and Brock Huard, as well as 2006 picks Tarvaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst, and Brodie Croyle still trying to prove themselves five year later, show that second and third round picks seen as having "upside" often just can't become regular starters.
NFL coaches are given quick three-year tenures in today's win-now NFL, so they push for a potential starting linebacker, cornerback, or receiver in the second and third rounds instead of a quarterback that needs a year or two of seasoning (which they probably won't have the luxury to get).
And remember how a lot of people expected Jimmy Clausen to be a first round pick last year, Colt McCoy put on a late push for a top 40 spot, while Dan LeFevour and Tony Pike were probable second or third round selections? Clausen's off-field issues pushed him into the second round, McCoy went in the third, and LeFevour and Pike both fell to the sixth.
It is possible that the 2011 quarterback draft class approaches the 1999 group, which had five passers taken in the top 12 overall selections, but the erratic play of Locker, off-field questions about Mallett, and Ponder's arm issues--along with strong defensive talent in his draft and teams' knowledge of the lack of success of quarterbacks outside of the top two--makes it more likely three signal callers hear their name called in the first round, two more may go in the second, while Kaepernick, Dalton and others will have to wait until the third or fourth rounds.
--Contributed by NFLDraftScout.com Senior Analyst Chad Reuter
What I get out of this is if you draft a QB after the first two taken in that draft then it's long odds on them amounting to anything. In some drafts maybe the 3rd QB taken will be good but after that stay away from QB's.
.) You don't draft based on whats happened in the past, they'll say. 
