More Thoughts on Horton

Mitch

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What concerns me the most is the following scenario:

First of all, in my mind I thoroughly believe that with Ray Horton on the staff we know what we have---we have one of the brightest and best defensive minds and game planners in all of football.

If we hire an offensive minded HC---whomever we hire is going to get a 3-4 year contract, at the very least.

While I loved it when GM Steve Keim said "we are retooling, not rebuilding"...

The reality is that no matter who we hire to take over the offense---it is going to be a new system with new schemes and terminology and there are going to be some new faces, hopefully at least one new bright face at QB.

While it is very encouraging that some teams this year were able to integrate rookie or 2nd year QBs into their offenses and be successful, as in going to the playoffs successful, realistically for the Cardinals, the new offense is going to take some time, as there are so many question marks personnel-wise. Developing the much-needed chemistry is going to take time.

That said---what happens if we have another season like we just had where the offense continues to struggle and the defense carries the team and plays at a very high level?

What happens if at that point it reminds us all the more of what we have in Ray Horton, and we are still unsure of what he have in the new HC and the new OC?

The Bidwills aren't going to eat the remaining 2-3 years on the new HC's contract in order to hire Ray Horton as HC.

So---what happens when we lose Ray Horton when he gets his HC gig?

Imo, that would be demoralizing and potentially devastating to this team. Here the defense has created a novel identity with Horton as the architect---here the defense has played its tails off for the guy---and now, he's gone?

I get the argument that it's become an offensive minded league---especially watching these very high scoring games this weekend to the tune of 276 combined points, which is an average of 34.5 point per team---

However, like everything else in the NFL, what goes around comes around---meaning all the more emphasis and attention will turn to the defensive side of the ball for the ways in which teams will try to counter for these offensive explosions.

In my mind---next to Dick LeBeau himself and a couple of real good ones like Mike Zimmer in Cincy---we have as good a defensive guy as there is in the league.

As I said, we know what we have in Ray Horton.

What we need is a good OC to go with him---and there are some good candidates out there now and there will plenty of candidates looking to land jobs with teams at the Senior Bowl, where the team of Keim, Licht and Horton could find the best candidate.

Lastly...let me ask you this...because this is likely what it will come down to---

Are you willing to hire someone like Mike McCoy if he insists on hiring his own staff so he can start with a clean slate?

Are you willing to hire someone like Mike McCoy, if he agrees to keep Horton coming in, knowing that there's a fair chance that in a year's time Horton will be gone?
 
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Shane

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Is that even possible?
 

NashDishesDimes

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For the reasons you just mentioned i dont have any doubt Horton is the next HC. I think the cards are just doijg their due dilligance
 
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Mitch

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For the reasons you just mentioned i dont have any doubt Horton is the next HC. I think the cards are just doijg their due dilligance

Time is a wasting then because we could hop on Mike Mularkey or Hue Jackson---which could put us in the best position possible.

Nash---is it truly due diligence or true misunderstanding of what is best for your football team? Not only that---true misunderstanding of how attractive you are to the likes of Andy Reid and Mike McCoy?...especially if the owner is insistent on having his own GM and his own choice for DC?
 

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Horton at this point is in a no lose situation (IMO)

He's either the HC or the Asst HC with a hefty raise and extension on the table.

McCoy, for one, knows that he's brought in to right the ship on the offesive side of the ball, and, as the saying goes, "Why fix what doesn't need fixing?"

In this scenario, if Horton leaves after next season it will be for a HC position and other 'd' staff members will have had one more of experience helping run the system.

McCoy, given this is his first gig, can't be expecting much of a decision making role on coaches and personnel on the 'D' side. Have a strong belief that he'll want to concentate his efforts on, as said: "What needs fixing".

Whisenhunt was hired on the 13th of January.
 
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JeffGollin

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Horton represents a known factor governing 33% - 50% of team play.

Everything else (regardless of the wisdom of those decisions & their outcomes) is a major questionmark.

Create uncertainty as to who'll oversee our defense and suddenly 66%-100% of what we do becomes a giant questionmark.

That's why I place keeping Horton (on whatever basis that works) above the hiring of McCoy, Gruden or any other offensive dude - either as OC or HC.
 

az jam

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Mitch,

1. You are suggesting a "what if" worst case scenario in favor of making Horton the HC. What if McCoy comes in and creates an exciting offense that works well with Horton's defense and makes us a winning team. The Cards can also give Horton a promotion to assistant HC and a contract equal to what Russ Grimm got. He would only leave for an HC position and who knows if that will ever come.

2. Additionally you suggest "what comes around goes around" that the league becomes defense oriented again. That is not going to really happen as the rules have changed so much over the last several year favoring the offense. (The protection of the qb, and the wrs; the fines for for hard hits, etc.) The NFL will not go back to the old days. There is a big reason why the teams that have HC openings are going after offense minded coaches.

I do like Horton but I feel that the Cards need to make offense their number one priority as ours was the worst in the entire NFL.

Should the new HC be McCoy? Haley? Gruden? That I really don't know and hope that Keim, Licht and Bidwill can figure it out.
 

kerouac9

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Nothing's keeping Horton from being given a head coaching gig right now. No one seems to be interviewing Mike Zimmer, and Lovie Smith--another defensive specialist with a long(er) history of success--is having a hard time even getting interviews.

It's possible that Mike Bidwill has an extension offer ready to go for Horton as a DC, and just wants to make sure that's fine with a new head coaching hire before announcing it. I wouldn't be surprised at all if that is the case.

Let's worry about making 2013 a successful season before we start clutching our pearls about 2014 and beyond.
 

Shane

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Nothing's keeping Horton from being given a head coaching gig right now. No one seems to be interviewing Mike Zimmer, and Lovie Smith--another defensive specialist with a long(er) history of success--is having a hard time even getting interviews.

It's possible that Mike Bidwill has an extension offer ready to go for Horton as a DC, and just wants to make sure that's fine with a new head coaching hire before announcing it. I wouldn't be surprised at all if that is the case.

Let's worry about making 2013 a successful season before we start clutching our pearls about 2014 and beyond.

Thank you! GREAT POST!
 
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Mitch

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3 of the 4 remaining HCs in the playoffs---coaches who made their way as defensive coaches: John Harbaugh (DBs & STs), Bill Belichick (DC, DBs) and Mike Smith (DC & LBs). If you don't believe me, go research their backgrounds.
 
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Mitch

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You know, before some of you spew off your mouths, as you repeatedly do---you should really know what you are talking about before you do.

Let's take this a step further.

Of the 12 teams in the playoffs this year---

8---defensive backgrounds (3 remaining)

4---offensive backgrounds (only 1 remaining)

The 8:

Bill Beliichick
John Harbaugh
Mike Smith
Pete Carroll
John Fox
Leslie Frazier
Chuck Pagano
 

Shane

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You know, before some of you spew off your mouths, as you repeatedly do---you should really know what you are talking about before you do.

Let's take this a step further.

Of the 12 teams in the playoffs this year---

8---defensive backgrounds (3 remaining)

4---offensive backgrounds (only 1 remaining)

The 8:

Bill Beliichick
John Harbaugh
Mike Smith
Pete Carroll
John Fox
Leslie Frazier
Chuck Pagano

Umm really what exactly are you trying to prove Mitch?? Also you are really stretching Harbaugh as a D backgrounded coach. He was ST's coach for nine years and was a DB coach for one year after requesting the move to Andy Reid. You act as though he has a long history of being a DC.
 

Chopper0080

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Umm really what exactly are you trying to prove Mitch?? Also you are really stretching Harbaugh as a D backgrounded coach. He was ST's coach for nine years and was a DB coach for one year after requesting the move to Andy Reid. You act as though he has a long history of being a DC.

I agree with Shane, what point are you trying to make?
 

kerouac9

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You know, before some of you spew off your mouths, as you repeatedly do---you should really know what you are talking about before you do.

Let's take this a step further.

Of the 12 teams in the playoffs this year---

8---defensive backgrounds (3 remaining)

4---offensive backgrounds (only 1 remaining)

The 8:

Bill Beliichick
John Harbaugh
Mike Smith
Pete Carroll
John Fox
Leslie Frazier
Chuck Pagano

You're smart enough to understand also that correlation doesn't equal causation.

Atlanta had the 24th-ranked defense in the NFL. New England's defense ranked in at 25th. Indy's was 26th (and Pagano was coach for but a handful of games, sadly). Baltimore's was below-average at 17th. Minnesota's D was exactly average at 16th in the NFL. Not sure why you didn't include Marvin Lewis on your list.

8 of the top 16 defenses in the NFL made the playoffs last year. 9 of the top 16 offenses in the NFL made the playoffs. We have a guy on-staff who we know can put together an above-average defense. We don't have a guy who can put together an offense at all.
 
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Mitch

Mitch

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You're smart enough to understand also that correlation doesn't equal causation.

Atlanta had the 24th-ranked defense in the NFL. New England's defense ranked in at 25th. Indy's was 26th (and Pagano was coach for but a handful of games, sadly). Baltimore's was below-average at 17th. Minnesota's D was exactly average at 16th in the NFL. Not sure why you didn't include Marvin Lewis on your list.

8 of the top 16 defenses in the NFL made the playoffs last year. 9 of the top 16 offenses in the NFL made the playoffs. We have a guy on-staff who we know can put together an above-average defense. We don't have a guy who can put together an offense at all.

Yes, but as you know, defensive stats are misleading for teams that are consistently ahead in games---because of the late yards they give up in the prevent.

It's what makes the Cardinals defensive rankings all the more impressive---because they were on the field all the time---most 3 and outs on offense in the NFL---
 

52brandon

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Nothing's keeping Horton from being given a head coaching gig right now. No one seems to be interviewing Mike Zimmer, and Lovie Smith--another defensive specialist with a long(er) history of success--is having a hard time even getting interviews.

It's possible that Mike Bidwill has an extension offer ready to go for Horton as a DC, and just wants to make sure that's fine with a new head coaching hire before announcing it. I wouldn't be surprised at all if that is the case.

Let's worry about making 2013 a successful season before we start clutching our pearls about 2014 and beyond.
great point. I would LOVE that. An offensive minded HC to build our offense. And a contract big enough to keep Horton happy at DC where we all know he is a genius. That's one thing that I would love to take away from the Steelers. A long-term DC that is happy being DC, and successful at it
You know, before some of you spew off your mouths, as you repeatedly do---you should really know what you are talking about before you do.

Let's take this a step further.

Of the 12 teams in the playoffs this year---

8---defensive backgrounds (3 remaining)

4---offensive backgrounds (only 1 remaining)

The 8:

Bill Beliichick
John Harbaugh
Mike Smith
Pete Carroll
John Fox
Leslie Frazier
Chuck Pagano
why throw insults out there like this in a discussion? I didn't see anybody talk down about your post. For somebody that has been vocal about his dislike for condescending posts, you're the last person I would have expected to say something like that
 

kerouac9

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Yes, but as you know, defensive stats are misleading for teams that are consistently ahead in games---because of the late yards they give up in the prevent.

It's what makes the Cardinals defensive rankings all the more impressive---because they were on the field all the time---most 3 and outs on offense in the NFL---

Fair enough. And you're right--12 of the 14 playoff teams finished above the median in points allowed defensively.

Want to know who didn't finish above the median in terms of points allowed? The Arizona Cardinals.

D'oh.

Of course, 13 of 14 playoffs teams finished above the median in points scored offensively. Only Indy was below the median.
 
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JeffGollin

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Yes, but as you know, defensive stats are misleading for teams that are consistently ahead in games---because of the late yards they give up in the prevent.

It's what makes the Cardinals defensive rankings all the more impressive---because they were on the field all the time---most 3 and outs on offense in the NFL---
Stats tend to verify what we see on the field. But in the end, they are what they are: a bunch of numbers which are susceptible to tweaking, massaging and misinterpreting.

To me, what impressed me about the Cardinal defense was what I saw with my own eyes:

- Turnovers

- Sacks

- Hurries

- More big plays made than given up.

- Game changers.

Was it perfect? No. There were the occasional blown coverages, miissed tackles, roughness and interference penalties etc.

But, in the end, this was the best Cardinal defense I've ever seen since when I started rooting for them in 1946. I'd add that we came close when Pendergast oversaw the defense, but it still was too much of a high risk/high reward roller coaster defense, and it wasn't until Horton came in to complete the transformation to the 3-4 that things really started to come together.
 
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GuernseyCard

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Fair enough. And you're right--12 of the 14 playoff teams finished above the median in points allowed defensively.

Want to know who didn't finish above the median in terms of points allowed? The Arizona Cardinals.

D'oh.

Of course, 13 of 14 playoffs teams finished above the median in points allowed offensively. Only Indy was below the median.

Is that TOTAL points allowed by the Cards or points allowed by the Defence?
 

kerouac9

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Is that TOTAL points allowed by the Cards or points allowed by the Defence?

Total points. But every team allows pick sixes. It doesn't make much sense to filter out only the Cards' TAINTs but allow those of the Vikes, Ravens, Packers, etc.
 

GuernseyCard

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Total points. But every team allows pick sixes. It doesn't make much sense to filter out only the Cards' TAINTs but allow those of the Vikes, Ravens, Packers, etc.

It makes much sense to filter out the pick sixes, fumbles and returns for TDs for all teams, if we're going to actually compare points allowed by defences. (IMO)
 

PDXChris

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Yeah, but what does any of this have to do with soccer?

JTS

I think Mitch is now predicting that we hire a soccer coach since their defenses never give up points, non of them, EVER. That and he has already predicted every possible coach as our coach, OC and DC. Seems like the next logical choice.
 

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To me all the talk about looking for a defensive or offensive minded coach is mindlessly eliminating half your options. Shouldn't we be looking for the candidate that would make the best head coach? Maybe someone that can put together and manage a solid staff, game plan on both sides of the ball, etc?

That being said, hiring Horton because you are afraid to lose him is playing not to lose. Kind of like the Broncos did, and we see how well that worked out at the end of regulation Sunday.
 
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