My Best Guess

[Harry]

I'm not sure if Dennis Green plays poker, but if this guess is right, he should.

First you have to recognize that Blake had clearly stamped himself as the anti-solution. He has been brought in to offer a steady hand at quarterback and he failed. Sure there were a number of contributing factors beyond his control, but he failed. So he was expendable, but why expend him now. If the Cards indeed had decided to draft a quarterback, wouldn't it have been smarter to keep him and not show your hand, so to speak. However, suppose you had decided not to draft a quarterback. How slick would it be to release Blake and in essence say, "If a QB is on the board, I'm ready to take him." It would force teams, who are hoping Roethlisberger or according to some even Manning might drop a little and be cheaper to acquire, to make a deal. This move has forced the hands of those teams by basically saying, "If you want a QB, you'd better trade up to the 1 or 2 slot."

Then there's Oakland. Sure they would like a QB, but they would also like a wide receiver. They probably haven't decided which way to go, but they need help at numerous positions. Now not only are they tempted to take a quarterback, but they are also tempted by a trade, which could fill several holes. It seems to me that releasing Blake made it even more likely that the quarterbacks go 1 and 2. This in turn would mean that Green has his eye on some other player.

This doesn't mean that if Manning fell to him he would pass. I just think he's looking elsewhere. That elsewhere almost has to be one of the receivers, as they are the only other logical threats to go in the first two picks. Since Fitzgerald looks like the surest thing, I am guessing that he is the real target.

 

[Snakester]

I'm glad they let Blake go. I think Denny Green would be happy to get Eli, Ben or Fitz. If the price is right we very well could see the Cards trade down. I am still hoping we get Ben or Eli. I would trade down instead of taking Fitz. I am not as high on him as some. The couple of games that I watched of him this year did not make me think that he was any better than Roy Williams. And he really didn't look that good against Miami. I think there is more hype on him because he is a sophmore.

 

[RedRob]

Couldn't agree more Harry. I'm convinced that Green wants Fitz. He's offensive minded, he loves these types of receivers, and I believe he thinks we're more likely to make a run next year w/ Josh versus a new QB.

 

[Garthshort]

Draft

Harry, thanks for your insight. I just can't wait for the Draft but until March comes and trades are made and FA's signed I don't have a clue which way the Cards go in the Draft. For instance, to get other teams thinking like you and have other teams or SD and Oakland thinking that the Cardinals really want Fitzgerald since he projects as a slot receiver and the team has announced that they are moving Q to the flanker position in order to open up a slot need, and maybe by doing that one of the QB's falls into their laps. I'm waiting to see if the team signs a FA WR before the Draft That would indicate to me that QB or another position is the way we will go. One thing about Green that I remember is his love of speed, so when Fitz, Williams (both) and Clayton workout is will be interesting to see the results.

 

[JeffGollin]

Picking up on what Harry said and then expanding on it -

I see the Cardinals' draft board looking something like this -

1. Roethlisberger (worth a 3)
2. Manning (worth a 3)
3. Taylor (worth no lower than a 4)
4. Fitzgerald (worth no lower than a 4)
5. Roy Williams (worth no lower than a 5)
6. Tommy Harris (worth no lower than a 6)
7. Michael Clayton (worth no lower than a 6)
8. DJ Williams (worth no lower than a 6)
9. De Angelo Hall (worth no lower than an eight)
10. Chris Gamble (worth no lower than an eight)
11. Rashaun Woods (worth no lower than an )11
12. Lee Evans (worth no lower than an 11)
13. Vince Wilfork (worth no lower than an 11)

The assumption being that all 13 of these players could make an impact.

Denny and Rod's strategy would be to (a) grab either of the two QB's if they dropped to us, but if they were gone: (b) depending on the deal, drop as far as #13 - and still grab one of the top 13 players on our draft board.

Maybe there would be a few different names on the Cardinal board, but I think this would be the general way they're thinking (or at least should be thinking).

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

Fitz is probably as close to Cris Carter as your going to get and he was pretty decent in Green's offense.I think the key will be to see what Green thinks of Bryant Johnson.If he shows the speed and ability,which i think he will, then Fitz will be their top WR draft target.He may be regardless.

 

[slanidrac16]

Until Green drafted Culpepper....

he seemed to be able to plug just about anybody in and make his offense click. I think we will take Fitzgerald at #3. I think both Big Ben and Eli will be gone. Maybe not to Oakland and San Diego, but none the less gone.
Green is an offensive Guru. He probably feels he can add a couple of pieces to this offense and turn it into a juggernaut. As I have said before in other post, go out and score 420 pts and our defense won't seem quite as bad!

 

[BuckeyeCardinal]

Yes

Originally posted by Snakester
I'm glad they let Blake go. I think Denny Green would be happy to get Eli, Ben or Fitz. If the price is right we very well could see the Cards trade down. I am still hoping we get Ben or Eli. I would trade down instead of taking Fitz. I am not as high on him as some. The couple of games that I watched of him this year did not make me think that he was any better than Roy Williams. And he really didn't look that good against Miami. I think there is more hype on him because he is a sophmore.

Like I've said before Snake....we're in a win/win situation with the the third pick. If both QB's are gone then /Fitz is a pro bowl pick anyway.....but of course I think the 2 QB's are as well.

Hope to see you again this summer in Winston-Salem.

Buckeye

 

[Northern Card]

Originally posted by JeffGollin
Picking up on what Harry said and then expanding on it -

I see the Cardinals' draft board looking something like this -

1. Roethlisberger (worth a 3)
2. Manning (worth a 3)
3. Taylor (worth no lower than a 4)
4. Fitzgerald (worth no lower than a 4)
5. Roy Williams (worth no lower than a 5)
6. Tommy Harris (worth no lower than a 6)
7. Michael Clayton (worth no lower than a 6)
8. DJ Williams (worth no lower than a 6)
9. De Angelo Hall (worth no lower than an eight)
10. Chris Gamble (worth no lower than an eight)
11. Rashaun Woods (worth no lower than an )11
12. Lee Evans (worth no lower than an 11)
13. Vince Wilfork (worth no lower than an 11)

The assumption being that all 13 of these players could make an impact.

Denny and Rod's strategy would be to (a) grab either of the two QB's if they dropped to us, but if they were gone: (b) depending on the deal, drop as far as #13 - and still grab one of the top 13 players on our draft board.

Maybe there would be a few different names on the Cardinal board, but I think this would be the general way they're thinking (or at least should be thinking).

And WINSLOW...???? worth no lower than_____

 

[daytripper]

"I see the Cardinals' draft board looking something like this - "


Jeff, few if any have looked at the option of trading out as opposed to trading down. I would be interested in your opinion as to trading for a proven DT or CB.

Regards
DT

GBR

 

[Shuesters2]

Top 13?

If we are going 'best player' (screw best athlete... I don't want some 110 pound Kenya long distance runner) Gallery and Andrews need to be in there too.

If you are talking trade down Green has to stay in the top seven picks to get one of his blue chippers, and not have to pick an O-lineman. Eli, Ben, Fitz, Taylor, Roy Williams, Winslow and T Harris.

Anyone of those guys would be a star player in the future. I think Green might consider dropping to pick #7 if he could pick up an additional high pick.

Shuesters

 

[TigToad]

5 players

I see five players in this draft, that if selected on draft day, I don't end up upset.

In my order of how I rate them talent wise...

Manning
Fitzgerald
Taylor
Ben R.
Gallery

I think all five of those have the potential to be studs. The riskiest of the lot is Ben, but he _could_ be the best. If I stay at 3, I'd go with the more 'sure thing' in Taylor if Eli and Fitz are gone.

I think Winslow will be a pro-bowl TE and I think Reggie Williams will be a quality wide out. I'm saying now, I think
Roy Williams and S. Andrews will both bust. I don't think the Cardinals can afford to look beyond Manning, Fitz, Taylor, Ben, Gallery and maybe Winslow.

I think we can afford to pass on Winslow and TE. While Gallery looks to be a great O-lineman, I don't think we need that upgrade as desperately. Taylor may very well be too good to pass up, even though it isn't a great need. I assume that Eli/Fitz go 1-2 and if they do not, I think we have to take whichever is available. That being the case, its a question of whether we want the potential best player in the draft in Ben or the safest pro-bowler in the draft in Sean Taylor (my opinion of course).

With Green's best player available attitude, I think we go Taylor with the #3 pick or trade down. I just hope we don't go down too far and/or get stuck with Roy Williams who I really see as being injured with tons of potential until he washes out.

 

[kerouac9]

Originally posted by JeffGollin
Picking up on what Harry said and then expanding on it -

I see the Cardinals' draft board looking something like this -

1. Roethlisberger (worth a 3)
2. Manning (worth a 3)
3. Taylor (worth no lower than a 4)
4. Fitzgerald (worth no lower than a 4)
5. Roy Williams (worth no lower than a 5)
6. Tommy Harris (worth no lower than a 6)
7. Michael Clayton (worth no lower than a 6)
8. DJ Williams (worth no lower than a 6)
9. De Angelo Hall (worth no lower than an eight)
10. Chris Gamble (worth no lower than an eight)
11. Rashaun Woods (worth no lower than an )11
12. Lee Evans (worth no lower than an 11)
13. Vince Wilfork (worth no lower than an 11)

The assumption being that all 13 of these players could make an impact.

Denny and Rod's strategy would be to (a) grab either of the two QB's if they dropped to us, but if they were gone: (b) depending on the deal, drop as far as #13 - and still grab one of the top 13 players on our draft board.

Maybe there would be a few different names on the Cardinal board, but I think this would be the general way they're thinking (or at least should be thinking).

Good lord, Jeff. You've been really off lately. Udeze isn't on your board, and he's surely a better prospect than Williams or below. Winslow, Jr. has to be in the top 13 players in the draft, and may be a top 10 player. Gallery is probably in the "no later than 5" category. They can all make an impact, and faster/bigger than a developmental prospect like Gamble (who probably should only be playing nickle or dime for at least the first year or two of his career). It sure looks to me like you're making the same mistake that Graves did last season: overrating players because you need them, not based on an objective analysis of value.

 

[JeffGollin]

Good lord, Jeff. You've been really off lately. Udeze isn't on your board, and he's surely a better prospect than Williams...Winslow, Jr. Gallery.
You must have missed reading that my concept of a Board is not "every best athlete available" but instead, "best athlete at a position the Cards need to improve."

I feel the Cards would be better off tweaking their O-line in free agency or better coaching of our existing crew than expending a top draft pick on Andrews - so he doesn't rate that high on my board.

Same deal with Winslow because we already have Freddie Jones, Bush, Banks and Diamond - Draft Winslow and he'd have to share playing time with FJ (unless you want to release Freddie for nothing) and we'd wind up with no DB, no QB, no WR etc. to boot.

You may have a case regarding Udeze. But I haven't seen the dude and will not rely on "hearsay" or stats to automatically rank him that high. (Whenever I do that, it invariably comes back to bite me later. Example: Andre Wadsworth - Good player when healthy, but not "The Next Bruce Smith").

(Note - the interesting thing about setting up a board the way I do is that further down the draft list, there will come a point where a player like Andrews or Winslow will be so much better than the next guy you want at a position of need that you finally have to slot these guys onto your board.

In fact, in a perverse way, the flip side of this theory might hold that a franchise QB might transcend position-need because this position is so important to the success of a team. Thus, even if Denny loves McCown, thinks highly of Parsons and may acquire a FA, Roethlisberger and Manning still could rate very high on his draft board.

The other thing is - each time the Cards make a selection, I rip up the old board and create a new one consisting of the number of picks between Round One and Round Two (typically 31 - 32 players). The reason for creating a new board for each pick is because, with each selection we make, the team's position-needs change slightly).

 

[Northern Card]

Originally posted by JeffGollin


Same deal with Winslow because we already have Freddie Jones, Bush, Banks and Diamond - Draft Winslow and he'd have to share playing time with FJ (unless you want to release Freddie for nothing) and we'd wind up with no DB, no QB, no WR etc. to boot.

COLOR]

Not necessarily. Green can run a two TE basic Off., with Winslow lining up outside as need be...

2 TE
2 WO
1 back

Conceivably, improves both our passing and running game.

 

[kerouac9]

Originally posted by Northern Card
Not necessarily. Green can run a two TE basic Off., with Winslow lining up outside as need be...

2 TE
2 WO
1 back

Conceivably, improves both our passing and running game.

I can see that, but I don't think there's any way that I could justify taking a TE at #3 overall. Maybe at #6-12, but not much higher than that.

I think that it's a mistake to draft for need in the first two rounds. Legitimate playmakers can be found in those rounds, and if you have a competent staff, you let them find a way to get the best 11 players on the field. When you draft for need early, you end up with players like KVB, Tommy Knight, Mike Stone, etc., who are taken too early but you feel forced into taking because you need them. Holes in the roster should be filled in free agency and in the latter rounds of the draft. The first two (and maybe the third in a deep class like 2004's) rounds should be used taking the best available player regardless of need. Your good vets at any time could be off the roster the next season (like all our WRs after 2002). If we'd drafted with more foresight, there wouldn't be so many glaring weaknesses when players inevitably leave through free agency. This is how good teams like the Pats, Titans, Bucs, and Dolphins stay good while teams like the Cards (who run around like chickens with their heads cut off trying to patch hemmoraghing rosters through the draft) stay bad.

 

[danny l]

Except , from what I have seen, Winslow couldn't block his shadow. He seems to be like his father who I loved at Mizzou, strictly a pass catching tight end. ie. no help in the running game.

 

[Northern Card]

Originally posted by kerouac9
I can see that, but I don't think there's any way that I could justify taking a TE at #3 overall. Maybe at #6-12, but not much higher than that.

I think that it's a mistake to draft for need in the first two rounds. Legitimate playmakers can be found in those rounds, and if you have a competent staff, you let them find a way to get the best 11 players on the field. When you draft for need early, you end up with players like KVB, Tommy Knight, Mike Stone, etc., who are taken too early but you feel forced into taking because you need them. Holes in the roster should be filled in free agency and in the latter rounds of the draft. The first two (and maybe the third in a deep class like 2004's) rounds should be used taking the best available player regardless of need. Your good vets at any time could be off the roster the next season (like all our WRs after 2002). If we'd drafted with more foresight, there wouldn't be so many glaring weaknesses when players inevitably leave through free agency. This is how good teams like the Pats, Titans, Bucs, and Dolphins stay good while teams like the Cards (who run around like chickens with their heads cut off trying to patch hemmoraghing rosters through the draft) stay bad.

The suggestion was part of a TRADE DOWN scenario...

 

[Northern Card]

Originally posted by danny l
Except , from what I have seen, Winslow couldn't block his shadow. He seems to be like his father who I loved at Mizzou, strictly a pass catching tight end. ie. no help in the running game.

Well, I didn't see that... and in fact, in their last few games he was used almost exclusively as a blocking TE...