My prediction: no trades this summer

[F-Dog]

After a little thought, my guess is that the Suns signed Q-Rich to be their sixth man, and (probably) nobody will be traded anywhere for at least a year. If the Clips don't match, the only question left for the Suns is, 'which stiff center can they entice to sign for the veteran minimum?'


1. The Suns had three needs this summer--PG, C and backup swingman. They couldn't get Kobe and (apparently) didn't see a center they liked, so they got the best PG and the best swingman they could. (They wanted Ginobili first, remember, but he priced himself out of their range pretty quickly.)

2. The Suns apparently have to spend all their cap money this year, to bulk up their payroll into Robert Sarver country. The advantage to signing Q-Rich instead of a center is that Richardson's contract will actually be tradeable somewhere down the line.


IMO the Suns will use Q-Rich (if they get him) like the Mavericks used Antawn Jamison last year--bring him off the bench to exploit mismatches and improve his percentages. Next summer, they'll re-sign Joe Johnson, then see if they can't find a trade they like.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

I just don't see why Richardson would sign here knowing he wouldn't start. If it were about the money, he could have gotton deals from Utah or Atlanta. I would imagine either of those teams would just at him for 6.5 million a year.

 

[slinslin]

Who cares about starting? Q-Rich could still beat out JJ for the starting spot and even if not he will play about 30mpg.

How about a sign and trade for Q-Rich to make sure they don't match? Ely seems to be done with the Clippers.

Zarko, Milos for Q-Rich and Ely.

Lampe/Voshkul/Ely
Amare/Vroman
Marion/ (JJ and Q)
Johnson/Q-Rich/Jacobsen
Nash/Barbosa/Eisley

 

[F-Dog]

I just don't see why Richardson would sign here knowing he wouldn't start. If it were about the money, he could have gotton deals from Utah or Atlanta. I would imagine either of those teams would just at him for 6.5 million a year.

Utah drafted Kirk Snyder and re-signed Giricek, and they still have Raja Bell.

Atlanta drafted Josh Childress and have Boris Diaw, and might be interested in bringing back Bob Sura or Stephen Jackson.

Denver doesn't seem interested. Remember, everybody had them as a major suitor for Gilbert Arenas last year, but they didn't show any interest in Arenas even before they signed 'Dre Miller.


It's possible that Q mainly wants out of the Clips, and the Suns are the only team dangling money right now (now is his only chance to escape if they don't sign Kobe). I think that's more likely than that the Suns told him they were trading someone, and Q decided to believe them.

 

[playstation]

f-dog-

you're expatsunsfan! i saw it with this post you got here.

i've been a ISH poster for 4 years, been reading your posts awhile. very informative. i'm justanotherguy4 on there, if you care

 

[Chaplin]

It's more than just "no trades happening".

Q signs an offer sheet with the Suns for a large sum of money. Fine. But there are some weird inconsitencies here. Why sign now, a week before the period that the Clips get to match even starts? Why was Hedo our first choice before Q? Q is MUCH better than Turkoglu.

With teams like Atlanta out there, why sign an offer sheet at all, let alone with the Suns, where AT BEST, if the team stays as is, he has a chance to start, but only a chance, where as on other teams he would get to start.

There are a few concrete reasons for him to sign this offer sheet now, that make some sense:

1) The money. Perhaps he felt that nobody else would offer him that much. But is a single week enough time to make that assessment?

2) Kobe Bryant. Many are saying this puts pressure on Kobe to make the decision sooner. Well, right now, the Clips have a full 3 weeks to convince him before perhaps losing Q. If we would have waited until, perhaps, July 13th to have him sign the offer sheet, wouldn't the Clippers be in a more precarious position? A week is still a week--and if the Clips could take their time, then that's ok. Now that Q has signed the offer sheet, the Clips have time to spare in their Kobe pursuit--they now have a week more "desperation time" to woo Bryant.

3) Another move. To me, this seems to be the most likely scenario. I'm guessing that sometime in the next three weeks (probably AFTER July 14th), a trade will be announced involving the Phoenix Suns. I would guess it would mean bringing in a big man of some sort, and Marion or JJ would be the primary component on our side. I think that JJ is more likely, because there really is no big dollar big man out there we would want to match salaries with Shawn. So we go for a guy like Olowokandi, while dangling JJ out there.

And because there will be another move, that move must already be decided, or at least agreed upon by all teams involved, thus guaranteeing a role for Q on the team. Perhaps the aforementioned trade is dependent on whether the Clippers match, although I'm thinking that this trade, whatever it may be, has been agreed upon for quite some time, perhaps right after Nash agreed to his contract.

Either way, while I like the signing, it just doesn't make sense. I know several people think that the Colangelo's are idiots and don't know what they're doing, but something is happening that we don't know about. I'm almost totally convinced of that.

 

[George O'Brien]

Assuming the numbers are accurate, there were only a few teams that offer Q what he will get in Phoenix: Utah, Denver, Atlanta, and San Antonio. Denver seemed like the most likely, but seems more focused on K-Mart and Manu. San Antonio is focused on re-signing their own players. Atlanta is not a competitive team. So unless Utah was in the market, Q had few attractive options. Being sixth man on the Suns is a lot better than starting on the Clippers.

 

[Chaplin]

San Antonio is focused on re-signing their own players.

You mean Manu and Hedo?

 

[Dave64]

Chaplin, I totally agree with you. Something else is brewing. If Q had decided to sign the offer with the Suns, why not wait a week?

 

[elindholm]

I like your analysis, Chaplin, but I disagree with the point about giving the Clippers more time with Bryant. They'd have until the end of July either way. It's not like the Richardson offer makes their pursuit of Bryant any more urgent -- they knew someone would be making him an offer, so it was only a matter of time.

But I do think you're right that something else is going on. This latest move is awfully fishy.

 

[Chaplin]

I like your analysis, Chaplin, but I disagree with the point about giving the Clippers more time with Bryant. They'd have until the end of July either way. It's not like the Richardson offer makes their pursuit of Bryant any more urgent -- they knew someone would be making him an offer, so it was only a matter of time.

But I do think you're right that something else is going on. This latest move is awfully fishy.

I threw that second point out there as food for thought--as you could read, I did not particularly agree with it, either.

 

[elindholm]

as you could read, I did not particularly agree with it, either.

Uh, okay. Guess I misunderstood.

 

[Chaplin]

as you could read, I did not particularly agree with it, either.

Uh, okay. Guess I misunderstood.

Don't be smug with me. I can quote my own damn post if you'd like.

 

[elindholm]

I can quote my own damn post if you'd like.

I'll save you the trouble.

If we would have waited until, perhaps, July 13th to have him sign the offer sheet, wouldn't the Clippers be in a more precarious position? A week is still a week--and if the Clips could take their time, then that's ok. Now that Q has signed the offer sheet, the Clips have time to spare in their Kobe pursuit--they now have a week more "desperation time" to woo Bryant.

This is what I disagree with. I thought you meant it, but if you didn't, that's okay too.

 

[George O'Brien]

I like your analysis, Chaplin, but I disagree with the point about giving the Clippers more time with Bryant. They'd have until the end of July either way. It's not like the Richardson offer makes their pursuit of Bryant any more urgent -- they knew someone would be making him an offer, so it was only a matter of time.

But I do think you're right that something else is going on. This latest move is awfully fishy.

I am still stunned. I don't really like Q's game in that he is a terrible outside shooter. He may be a great spark plug off the bench, but I was hoping for more. Maybe the Suns think they can turn him into a decent shooter. I hope so, because a guy who bricks likes that needs some great rebounders and the Suns are "light".

 

[Chaplin]

How about this?

3) Another move. To me, this seems to be the most likely scenario. I'm guessing that sometime in the next three weeks (probably AFTER July 14th), a trade will be announced involving the Phoenix Suns. I would guess it would mean bringing in a big man of some sort, and Marion or JJ would be the primary component on our side. I think that JJ is more likely, because there really is no big dollar big man out there we would want to match salaries with Shawn. So we go for a guy like Olowokandi, while dangling JJ out there.

I thought that was fairly clear. Sorry that it wasn't.

 

[elindholm]

I don't really like Q's game in that he is a terrible outside shooter.

If you watch Richardson play, it's evident that he is a more effective player than his FG% alone would indicate. He creates problems for the defense and facilitates things for his teammates, even though he isn't the one getting the assists.

I don't particularly love the signing, but I don't think it's a disaster either. It depends on what the Suns do next to shore up their center rotation.

 

[Chaplin]

I don't really like Q's game in that he is a terrible outside shooter.

If you watch Richardson play, it's evident that he is a more effective player than his FG% alone would indicate. He creates problems for the defense and facilitates things for his teammates, even though he isn't the one getting the assists.

I don't particularly love the signing, but I don't think it's a disaster either. It depends on what the Suns do next to shore up their center rotation.

I actually pretty much agree with you Eric, which is why I support the third scenario above.

 

[George O'Brien]

Q is one of the oddest guards in the NBA. He does most of his damage in the paint and was the second leading rebounder on the Clippers last season (6.4 rpg). He is listed at 6'5" but is listed at 238 pounds. He is basically a short SF rather than a guard.

I would have to think the Suns would use him differently than the Clippers did. By having their SG so close to the basket on offense, they gave up a lot of fast break points - opponents shot 46% against them.

 

[F-Dog]

f-dog-

you're expatsunsfan! i saw it with this post you got here.

i've been a ISH poster for 4 years, been reading your posts awhile. very informative. i'm justanotherguy4 on there, if you care

Yeah, you got me.


I still go back there from time to time, but I've pretty much moved over to this board now. That board is nice for getting the perspectives of other team's fans, but there wasn't enough Suns talk for my taste.

I remember your name from the other board, from back then. Good to have you aboard here!

 

[F-Dog]

Oh yeah, and I still don't think there's going to be a trade any time soon.


Look at it this way--the Suns had the weakest bench in the league last year. If the Clips don't match, they now have somebody coming off the bench who's legitimately good enough to start for a number of other teams. Why would they throw that away unless they're getting a center who solves their problem once and for all? (Which ain't happenin' any time soon--talk to the Dallas fans if you don't believe me. )


The Marion trade talk has been going on for two reasons--T-Mac, and Marion's huge salary. Since neither of those things is relevant now, why would the Suns move Marion at a discount?

Particularly when you consider that Marion is due for a bounce-back year, and that he's the closest thing to an elder statesman on the team, youknowwhatImean?