BACH
Superbowl, Homeboy!
For those of you following my posts and interact with me know that I'm a fan of Monti's approach and the way he has re-build this team, so wanted to give my two cents on how I would approach the off-season and the way I see Monti approach it (I might be delusional to think I'm even close to understand Monti.
A couple of pre-requisites to understand my approach/thinking.
This is year three of a complete re-build and change of culture. Year 1 was shredding the teams of non-fits to install the new culture. Year 2 was to build the depth of the team and continuing to expand the new culture. Year 3 is the year to put a contender on the field. The goal should be to put a team together that should go to the 2nd round of the play-offs at a minimum.
I like how the team has been build so far. I cannot remember when a Cardinals team has been this deep at so many positions. There are still a few glaring need positions, but the overall depth is really solid. While depth is good, the team lacks elite talent, which also reflects back to Monti's drafts. None of the players Monti has drafted have been complete busts. All are looking the part of solid pieces (or has the trajectory), but at the same time none have been immediate superstars. Garrett Williams is the only one that is close, but hopefully we will see players like PJJ, MHJ and others take a step forward.
The bad news is that this year's FA class and draft offer very few superstar players. No really big names are available in FA. The blue chip category is small in the draft class.
The good news is that in both FA and the draft the 2nd tier group is very good.
More good news is that both FA and the draft is strongest at the biggest area of need - the defensive front. Daniel Jeremiah has 24 of his top 100 as D-linemen.
Even more good news is that the team has plenty of cap space and only two starting players as pending free agents (White & Hernandez/Brown assuming Adams will take one of the starting G spots).
Looking at the UFA list from this team and deleting the free agents that only were a part of the team due to injuries to other players, I count only 12 actual open spots on the roster and about half of them are players at the buttom of the roster (Dimukaje, Okwara, Lopez, Zack Pascal, Brewer), that are very easily replaceable. We have to assume the draft will provide 5-6 players sticking on the roster leaving VERY few spots for re-signed players and FAs bought in. That means the free agency should be very precise and focused on very few players.
A forgotten fact... Many on this board is saying that Bidwill will never spend big money. Well, tough! He has to by rules! The league have 3 year cash windows spends. We are entering the the final year of the current window and Cardinals are 4th lowest in cash spending (low number of FAs and high number of draft piks). Monti has to spend a lot of money.
So how would I approach this?
2 guidelines.
1. Try to add elite talent if possible
2. Do not leave anything to chance. The team went into last season with added depth at several position and a few positions, where everyone went "meh". I would add pieces, where there at a minimum is a solid capable starter and adequate back-ups at all positions. A 1st rounder or trade later in the season should be added value - not the solution at any position.
The plan:
1. 1st priority is easy. Elite talent is needed, so you lock down your top 3 TE long-term. Pay McBride! While this is the easy 1st priority, I do not think we will see it before closer to the season or even until we are in the season.
2. Bring key back-ups back. None of the team's pending FAs would create a disaster if they leave, but I would bring a few back a security blanket and depth. Again. I do not want to leave anything to chance here.
- Beachum is a MUST to bring back as the swing tackle
- I would bring Gardeck or Browning back as a situational rusher.
- Bring back one of the Gs to secure a starter if you cannot bring in a starter in FA or in the draft. I would prefer Hernandez if he is healthy.
- Several 3rd string rotation players on the DL are FAs. If the price is right, I would bring LJ Collier and Roy Lopez back. Just to keep solid depth that you know can contribute in a reduced number of snaps. These players could also be added in the 2nd wave of FA.
- I expect Brewer back as the LS
3. Free agency
As I state above, there is an extremely low number of open spots on the team. The goal for Monti in free agency has to be to elevate the top talent, so I would target few positions, but make a splash there.
I have 4 priorities.
- LB. White was not extended leaving a hole in the starting line-up. While I liked White, there are numerous better LBs available in free agency - Zack Baun, Greenlaw, Bolton, Ernest Jones & Damien Sherwood. Lock down the hole. My target: Damien Sherwood from the Jets.
- DT and Edge. I would try to lock down the best DT I can get and where I would make a splash. Sign Milton Williams. If not succesful, then sign Poona Ford, Odighizuwa, Jarran Reed or even bring Campbell back. For Edge I would go after aging Mack or Reddick on a 2 year deal.
My targets: Milton Williams and Reddick.
- G. Sign a starter and close that question mark in the starting line-up for good - Trey Smith is gone after receiving the franchise tag, but Will Fries was rated 4th at G last season. Beckton, Patrick Mekari, Scherff are other options.
My target: Try to land Fries. He's rated as the 4th best G in the league and is better run-blocking than pass-blocking, so a perfect fit for this team. If not able to sign him - Schreff on a short term deal to keep the seat warm until a young player is ready
- secondary needs are LB depth, outside speed WR (non slot) and perhaps back-up QB. All except perhaps back-up QB can be added in the draft or later waves of Free agency.
4. Draft
My preference would be to use free agency, so there are no starting gaps that are must fill, when the draft comes around. It all has to be added value on top of the starters
If there are any chance to trade #16 for Myles Garrett or Maxx Crosby, I would do it. That is highly unlikely, however, so cannot plan on it.
The way the current draft board looks, whoever is best value at #16 and #47 most likely will be at a position of need (DT, Edge, OL). At #16 the most likely scenario will be that a Edge or OT will be BPA. Take the best. If that is an edge you have signed aging Mack/Reddick as the solution and will get young talent. If one of the OTs fall, then you can play them inside or at RT.
At #47 the most likely BPA will be a DT considering how deep the draft is at that position and you should get a player at #47 that normally would be drafted in the 25-35 range. If all DTs are gone that will mean that a IOL or OT will be available as the draft is quite deep of OL in the 30-40 range.
I would not be surprised if Monti decide to trade down. The draft is supposedly so so deep at Edge and DT in the buttom 1st and high 2nd, and #16 is the sweet spot for other teams to secure the 2nd/3rd WR, 2nd/3rd CB, 2nd TE. A lot of mock draft have the Cardinals trading down to #20 so Broncos can land Copeland at #16. That should land a 3rd and a 6th extra.
I expect 2x DL (given the depth at position in the draft), 1-2 OL, WR and LBs to be drafted.
5. June Free agency
Use the 2nd wave (or is it 3rd wave) to secure proper depth and fill the buttom of the roster. This is were you should easily be able to find the Okwara, Colon, Roy Lopez caliber players.
Disclaimer. I do not see starting QB as a priority as there are zero better options than Kyler available nor do I see any need to upgrade the CB room. I expect a nice development from Melton, Thomas and Jones and think the group is good enough with the expected improvement in pass-rush. I also see no need to add S, TE and RB in the draft or first waves of free agency (This comes back to depth that I praise Monti for)
A couple of pre-requisites to understand my approach/thinking.
This is year three of a complete re-build and change of culture. Year 1 was shredding the teams of non-fits to install the new culture. Year 2 was to build the depth of the team and continuing to expand the new culture. Year 3 is the year to put a contender on the field. The goal should be to put a team together that should go to the 2nd round of the play-offs at a minimum.
I like how the team has been build so far. I cannot remember when a Cardinals team has been this deep at so many positions. There are still a few glaring need positions, but the overall depth is really solid. While depth is good, the team lacks elite talent, which also reflects back to Monti's drafts. None of the players Monti has drafted have been complete busts. All are looking the part of solid pieces (or has the trajectory), but at the same time none have been immediate superstars. Garrett Williams is the only one that is close, but hopefully we will see players like PJJ, MHJ and others take a step forward.
The bad news is that this year's FA class and draft offer very few superstar players. No really big names are available in FA. The blue chip category is small in the draft class.
The good news is that in both FA and the draft the 2nd tier group is very good.
More good news is that both FA and the draft is strongest at the biggest area of need - the defensive front. Daniel Jeremiah has 24 of his top 100 as D-linemen.
Even more good news is that the team has plenty of cap space and only two starting players as pending free agents (White & Hernandez/Brown assuming Adams will take one of the starting G spots).
Looking at the UFA list from this team and deleting the free agents that only were a part of the team due to injuries to other players, I count only 12 actual open spots on the roster and about half of them are players at the buttom of the roster (Dimukaje, Okwara, Lopez, Zack Pascal, Brewer), that are very easily replaceable. We have to assume the draft will provide 5-6 players sticking on the roster leaving VERY few spots for re-signed players and FAs bought in. That means the free agency should be very precise and focused on very few players.
A forgotten fact... Many on this board is saying that Bidwill will never spend big money. Well, tough! He has to by rules! The league have 3 year cash windows spends. We are entering the the final year of the current window and Cardinals are 4th lowest in cash spending (low number of FAs and high number of draft piks). Monti has to spend a lot of money.
So how would I approach this?
2 guidelines.
1. Try to add elite talent if possible
2. Do not leave anything to chance. The team went into last season with added depth at several position and a few positions, where everyone went "meh". I would add pieces, where there at a minimum is a solid capable starter and adequate back-ups at all positions. A 1st rounder or trade later in the season should be added value - not the solution at any position.
The plan:
1. 1st priority is easy. Elite talent is needed, so you lock down your top 3 TE long-term. Pay McBride! While this is the easy 1st priority, I do not think we will see it before closer to the season or even until we are in the season.
2. Bring key back-ups back. None of the team's pending FAs would create a disaster if they leave, but I would bring a few back a security blanket and depth. Again. I do not want to leave anything to chance here.
- Beachum is a MUST to bring back as the swing tackle
- I would bring Gardeck or Browning back as a situational rusher.
- Bring back one of the Gs to secure a starter if you cannot bring in a starter in FA or in the draft. I would prefer Hernandez if he is healthy.
- Several 3rd string rotation players on the DL are FAs. If the price is right, I would bring LJ Collier and Roy Lopez back. Just to keep solid depth that you know can contribute in a reduced number of snaps. These players could also be added in the 2nd wave of FA.
- I expect Brewer back as the LS
3. Free agency
As I state above, there is an extremely low number of open spots on the team. The goal for Monti in free agency has to be to elevate the top talent, so I would target few positions, but make a splash there.
I have 4 priorities.
- LB. White was not extended leaving a hole in the starting line-up. While I liked White, there are numerous better LBs available in free agency - Zack Baun, Greenlaw, Bolton, Ernest Jones & Damien Sherwood. Lock down the hole. My target: Damien Sherwood from the Jets.
- DT and Edge. I would try to lock down the best DT I can get and where I would make a splash. Sign Milton Williams. If not succesful, then sign Poona Ford, Odighizuwa, Jarran Reed or even bring Campbell back. For Edge I would go after aging Mack or Reddick on a 2 year deal.
My targets: Milton Williams and Reddick.
- G. Sign a starter and close that question mark in the starting line-up for good - Trey Smith is gone after receiving the franchise tag, but Will Fries was rated 4th at G last season. Beckton, Patrick Mekari, Scherff are other options.
My target: Try to land Fries. He's rated as the 4th best G in the league and is better run-blocking than pass-blocking, so a perfect fit for this team. If not able to sign him - Schreff on a short term deal to keep the seat warm until a young player is ready
- secondary needs are LB depth, outside speed WR (non slot) and perhaps back-up QB. All except perhaps back-up QB can be added in the draft or later waves of Free agency.
4. Draft
My preference would be to use free agency, so there are no starting gaps that are must fill, when the draft comes around. It all has to be added value on top of the starters
If there are any chance to trade #16 for Myles Garrett or Maxx Crosby, I would do it. That is highly unlikely, however, so cannot plan on it.
The way the current draft board looks, whoever is best value at #16 and #47 most likely will be at a position of need (DT, Edge, OL). At #16 the most likely scenario will be that a Edge or OT will be BPA. Take the best. If that is an edge you have signed aging Mack/Reddick as the solution and will get young talent. If one of the OTs fall, then you can play them inside or at RT.
At #47 the most likely BPA will be a DT considering how deep the draft is at that position and you should get a player at #47 that normally would be drafted in the 25-35 range. If all DTs are gone that will mean that a IOL or OT will be available as the draft is quite deep of OL in the 30-40 range.
I would not be surprised if Monti decide to trade down. The draft is supposedly so so deep at Edge and DT in the buttom 1st and high 2nd, and #16 is the sweet spot for other teams to secure the 2nd/3rd WR, 2nd/3rd CB, 2nd TE. A lot of mock draft have the Cardinals trading down to #20 so Broncos can land Copeland at #16. That should land a 3rd and a 6th extra.
I expect 2x DL (given the depth at position in the draft), 1-2 OL, WR and LBs to be drafted.
5. June Free agency
Use the 2nd wave (or is it 3rd wave) to secure proper depth and fill the buttom of the roster. This is were you should easily be able to find the Okwara, Colon, Roy Lopez caliber players.
Disclaimer. I do not see starting QB as a priority as there are zero better options than Kyler available nor do I see any need to upgrade the CB room. I expect a nice development from Melton, Thomas and Jones and think the group is good enough with the expected improvement in pass-rush. I also see no need to add S, TE and RB in the draft or first waves of free agency (This comes back to depth that I praise Monti for)
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