NCAA Tournament - North Carolina vs. San Diego St. Predictions: Odds, Expert Picks, Betting Trends, and Stats

[ASFN Admin]

Their selection may have been controversial, but the North Carolina Tar Heels (22-13, 15-8) take the court in the First Four Tuesday Night in Dayton against the Aztecs of San Diego State University (21-9, 14-7). Each of these schools is seeded No. 11 in the South Region in the NCAA Tournament.

UNC closed the season strong with just two losses to Duke (including the ACC semifinals) in their last 10 games. They won those eight games by an average of 17 points. The Heels’ offense is clicking averaging 83 points per game in those final ten games.

San Diego State has been one of the most consistently successful programs in Division 1 for over a decade. Since the 2009-10 season, the Aztecs own the sixth best record in the nation (411-136). In this season’s Mountain West Tournament, San Diego State lost in the quarterfinals to Boise State.

The Aztecs are led by guard Nick Boyd who is averaging 13.4 points per game. RJ Davis is one of North Carolina’s all-time scoring leaders. He enters tournament play averaging 17 points per game this season.

The winner of this game will face No. 6 Ole Miss Thursday in the Round of 64.

Lets dive into Tuesday’s matchup and offer some information and possibly a sweat or two.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch the opening tip, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

Game details & how to watch North Carolina vs. San Diego State​

• Date: Tuesday, March 18, 2025
• Time: 9:10PM EST
• Site: UD Arena
• City: Dayton, OH
• Network/Streaming: TruTV

Never miss a second of the action and stay up to date with all the latest scores and player news. Check out our day-by-dayNCAA Basketball Schedule Page that includes live game updates.

Game odds for North Carolina vs. San Diego State​

The latest odds as of Monday courtesy of BetMGM:

• Odds: UNC Tar Heels (-175), San Diego State Aztecs (+145)
• Spread: Tar Heels -3.5
• Total: 142.5 points

Expert picks & predictions for North Carolina vs. San Diego State​

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet​

Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NCAA calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, injuries, and the schedule.


Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.


Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Tuesday’s Tar Heels & Aztecs game:

• Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play on North Carolina on the Moneyline
• Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play on the Tar Heels -3.5
• Total: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total OVER 142.5.

North Carolina vs. San Diego State: Top betting trends and recent stats​

• UNC is 3-0 against the spread in their last 3 games, 8-2 in their last 10 (12-19-1 for the season)
• UNC Game Totals have cashed to the UNDER in their last 4 games
• San Diego State is 1-3 against the spread in their last 4, 4-6 in their last 10 (12-16-1 for the season)
• San Diego State Game Totals are 6-5 to the OVER in their last 10 games

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out ourNCAA Basketball Top Trends Toolon NBCSports.com!




Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.


Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
· Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
· Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
· Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
· Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)

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