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The consensus is so overpoweringly positive on Colorado’s Travis Hunter that I hesitate to write any of this.
But I must. The spreadsheets demand it of me, and as you know by now, I have never said no to the spreadsheets.
Game tape evaluators, including Reception Perception’s Matt Harmon, say Hunter — who played both cornerback and wideout at Colorado over the past two seasons — is elite. NBC Sports’ Chris Simms has Hunter locked in as a “tier one” wideout prospect. Hunter is, per Simms, an “NFL ready baller” who is “not as special” as a defensive back as he is at receiver. Simms sees Hunter as a Year One Pro Bowler.
2025 NFL Mock Draft 3.0: Titans take Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders slides in Kyle Dvorchak’s mock
Kyle Dvorchak’s NFL Mock Draft 3.0 features Miami QB Cam Ward at the top with Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders sliding to the end of the first round.
ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky has compared Hunter favorably to Justin Jefferson, a generational receiver with the second most receiving yards since the start of the 2022 NFL season. ESPN’s Mina Kimes has been very much impressed by her film evaluation of Colorado’s do-it-all guy.
My spreadsheets have questions, however.
Then there are the more granular metrics that leave daylight to wonder if Hunter is in fact elite. Lateround.com’s JJ Zachariason wrote in his 2025 NFL Draft Prospect Guide that Hunter’s 2024 receiving yards per team pass attempt — a good way to measure a pass catcher’s domination of a college offense — is in the 20th percentile among wide receivers taken in the first round of the draft since 2011.
Another part of Hunter's profile that draws some questions about his target-commanding abilities: He drew a target on 23.3 percent of his pass routes over this final two collegiate seasons, not a necessarily poor rate, but nowhere near elite. Tetairoa McMillan, for example, saw a target on 27.1 percent of his routes in his final two seasons at Arizona. Ohio State's Emeka Egbuka had a target per route rate of 27.7 percent. Jayden Higgins of Iowa State was targeted on 29.4 percent of his routes last season. You get the idea. Hunter was not in the spreadsheet neighborhood of these fellow 2025 wideout prospects.
Some of these same analytical questions hung over Justin Jefferson when entered the league in 2020. His efficiency numbers were hardly sparkling in his final season at LSU — he was 31st in yards per route run that year — and his overall college target share (21.7 percent) was in the 58th percentile. Jefferson, of course, happened to play across from Ja’Marr Chase, another generational wideout talent.
That was decidedly not the case for Hunter; LaJohntay Wester was the only Colorado pass catcher besides Hunter to see more than 65 targets in 2024. There was no one else commanding the football from Shedeur Sanders.
There’s also the matter of size: Hunter weighed in at 188 pounds, 16 pounds lighter than Jefferson, who’s one inch taller than Hunter. And I don’t think anyone would call Jefferson particularly bulky.
A few draft evaluators, including Simms, have pushed back on the size concerns surrounding the slight Hunter. “He’s tough as hell,” Simms said, adding that the one knock on Hunter might be his lack of the “80 yards to the house” kind of speed seen in recent prospects like Malik Nabers. “Nobody told him he’s six foot, 188. He thinks he’s 6’4” and 265.”
2025 NFL Draft Tiered Skill Position Rankings: Top QB, RB, WR, TE prospects
Cam Ward and Ashton Jeanty are at the top of the heap of their respective positions.
No one really knows how Hunter will be deployed in the NFL since he just so happened to be an excellent cover guy and a superb wideout. Pro Football Focus graded Hunter as the second-best cover corner in the nation last year. That checks out for a corner who allowed a minuscule 21 receptions on 399 coverage snaps. How a team could spend massive draft capital on a potential lockdown corner and not use him as a full-time defensive player is beyond me.
Such a scenario would likely mean Hunter plays a part-time receiver role, maybe as some kind of specialist or in certain packages. His utter domination on downfield passes last year at Colorado — Hunter averaged nearly 30 yards per catch on targets over more than 20 yards — could conceivably make him a deep ball specialist, not unlike a Jameson Williams before his breakout third NFL season. That’s a valuable, high-leverage role in any legitimate NFL offense with a capable quarterback.
I don’t think fantasy drafters should dismiss this scenario, or something close to it. Hunter has an unquestionably wide range of outcomes, just as Jefferson did when the Vikings drafted him five years ago. Despite his immaculate vibes and air of inevitably, the gaps in Hunter’s analytical profile should raise at least some skepticism that Hunter can step into a WR1 role and become an elite NFL wide receiver.
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But I must. The spreadsheets demand it of me, and as you know by now, I have never said no to the spreadsheets.
Game tape evaluators, including Reception Perception’s Matt Harmon, say Hunter — who played both cornerback and wideout at Colorado over the past two seasons — is elite. NBC Sports’ Chris Simms has Hunter locked in as a “tier one” wideout prospect. Hunter is, per Simms, an “NFL ready baller” who is “not as special” as a defensive back as he is at receiver. Simms sees Hunter as a Year One Pro Bowler.
You must be registered for see images attach
2025 NFL Mock Draft 3.0: Titans take Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders slides in Kyle Dvorchak’s mock
Kyle Dvorchak’s NFL Mock Draft 3.0 features Miami QB Cam Ward at the top with Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders sliding to the end of the first round.
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You must be registered for see images attachKyle Dvorchak,
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You must be registered for see images attachKyle Dvorchak,
ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky has compared Hunter favorably to Justin Jefferson, a generational receiver with the second most receiving yards since the start of the 2022 NFL season. ESPN’s Mina Kimes has been very much impressed by her film evaluation of Colorado’s do-it-all guy.
My spreadsheets have questions, however.
- Why does Hunter’s 2024 yards per route run, a key measure of efficiency, rank 25th among wideouts in the 2025 draft class, in line with Toledo’s Jerjuan Newton and a tick below Miami’s Xavier Restrepo?
- Why did Hunter’s final-season yards per route run — slightly higher than his 2023 efficiency metrics — rank outside the top-40 receivers in the nation last year?
- For such an explosive playmaker, how does Hunter’s final-year yards after the catch (YAC) per reception come in at 91st out of 104 qualifying receivers? It’s not as if his average depth of target (10.3) was that of a deep ball specialist whose role doesn’t call for gaudy YAC numbers.
Then there are the more granular metrics that leave daylight to wonder if Hunter is in fact elite. Lateround.com’s JJ Zachariason wrote in his 2025 NFL Draft Prospect Guide that Hunter’s 2024 receiving yards per team pass attempt — a good way to measure a pass catcher’s domination of a college offense — is in the 20th percentile among wide receivers taken in the first round of the draft since 2011.
Another part of Hunter's profile that draws some questions about his target-commanding abilities: He drew a target on 23.3 percent of his pass routes over this final two collegiate seasons, not a necessarily poor rate, but nowhere near elite. Tetairoa McMillan, for example, saw a target on 27.1 percent of his routes in his final two seasons at Arizona. Ohio State's Emeka Egbuka had a target per route rate of 27.7 percent. Jayden Higgins of Iowa State was targeted on 29.4 percent of his routes last season. You get the idea. Hunter was not in the spreadsheet neighborhood of these fellow 2025 wideout prospects.
Some of these same analytical questions hung over Justin Jefferson when entered the league in 2020. His efficiency numbers were hardly sparkling in his final season at LSU — he was 31st in yards per route run that year — and his overall college target share (21.7 percent) was in the 58th percentile. Jefferson, of course, happened to play across from Ja’Marr Chase, another generational wideout talent.
That was decidedly not the case for Hunter; LaJohntay Wester was the only Colorado pass catcher besides Hunter to see more than 65 targets in 2024. There was no one else commanding the football from Shedeur Sanders.
There’s also the matter of size: Hunter weighed in at 188 pounds, 16 pounds lighter than Jefferson, who’s one inch taller than Hunter. And I don’t think anyone would call Jefferson particularly bulky.
A few draft evaluators, including Simms, have pushed back on the size concerns surrounding the slight Hunter. “He’s tough as hell,” Simms said, adding that the one knock on Hunter might be his lack of the “80 yards to the house” kind of speed seen in recent prospects like Malik Nabers. “Nobody told him he’s six foot, 188. He thinks he’s 6’4” and 265.”
You must be registered for see images attach
2025 NFL Draft Tiered Skill Position Rankings: Top QB, RB, WR, TE prospects
Cam Ward and Ashton Jeanty are at the top of the heap of their respective positions.
-
You must be registered for see images attachEric Froton,
-
You must be registered for see images attachEric Froton,
No one really knows how Hunter will be deployed in the NFL since he just so happened to be an excellent cover guy and a superb wideout. Pro Football Focus graded Hunter as the second-best cover corner in the nation last year. That checks out for a corner who allowed a minuscule 21 receptions on 399 coverage snaps. How a team could spend massive draft capital on a potential lockdown corner and not use him as a full-time defensive player is beyond me.
Such a scenario would likely mean Hunter plays a part-time receiver role, maybe as some kind of specialist or in certain packages. His utter domination on downfield passes last year at Colorado — Hunter averaged nearly 30 yards per catch on targets over more than 20 yards — could conceivably make him a deep ball specialist, not unlike a Jameson Williams before his breakout third NFL season. That’s a valuable, high-leverage role in any legitimate NFL offense with a capable quarterback.
I don’t think fantasy drafters should dismiss this scenario, or something close to it. Hunter has an unquestionably wide range of outcomes, just as Jefferson did when the Vikings drafted him five years ago. Despite his immaculate vibes and air of inevitably, the gaps in Hunter’s analytical profile should raise at least some skepticism that Hunter can step into a WR1 role and become an elite NFL wide receiver.
Continue reading...
