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Josh Rosen, Arizona Cardinals
Pick: No. 10 | Starts: 10 | Total QBR: 30.5
If anyone deserves a mulligan out of this group, it's Rosen. The 21-year-old UCLA product is already on his second offensive coordinator after Mike McCoy was fired and replaced by Byron Leftwich. Perhaps more importantly, Arizona has somehow lost each of its five starting offensive linemen, which is close to unprecedented for an NFL offensive line. The guys replacing the deposed starters aren't exactly experienced, either:
D.J. Humphries 18 Korey Cunningham 0
LG Mike Iupati 104 Colby Gossett 0
C A.Q. Shipley 54 Mason Cole 0
RG Justin Pugh 63 Oday Aboushi 26
RT Andre Smith 85 Joe Barksdale 74
Joe Barksdale inflates the totals, but he was just signed after being released by the Chargers last week and went straight into the starting lineup five days later, which is telling. All of the players along that projected starting line have had injury issues, so it's not necessarily surprising that they would struggle to stay healthy, but it's difficult to evaluate any quarterback behind a truly patchwork offensive line.
It's easy for young quarterbacks to develop bad habits behind that sort of line. Some passers, even if they didn't have issues in college, begin to tuck and scramble at the first sign of pressure. They stop looking downfield and start attuning their eyes toward the footsteps they sense are coming before the defense even arrives. It's fair to wonder whether a quarterback like David Carr might have had an entirely different career if he had developed behind a better offensive line.
The good news, at least for now, is that Rosen isn't exhibiting those issues yet. The most promising part of Rosen's development remains his footwork, which is remarkably consistent. He just looks comfortable in the pocket, even as pressure whizzes by him. Rosen isn't going to be much of a scrambler, but he already has superb instincts for when and where to step up in the pocket and create a throwing lane. If anything, he might be too focused downfield and take more coverage sacks than the Cardinals would want.
It's fair to wonder whether the Cardinals could do more to create easy throws for Rosen. He hasn't seen any sort of jump under Leftwich's tenure. David Johnson's usage rate in the passing game hasn't changed much; after averaging 19.1 routes and 4.3 targets per game before McCoy's firing, Johnson is averaging 18.3 routes and 5.2 targets per game under Leftwich. Most of the target increase came in Sunday's loss to the Lions, when Johnson caught eight passes on 10 targets for a grand total of 12 yards.
Whether it's the receivers or the scheme (and it's likely a bit of both), Rosen just doesn't have easy passes. A mere 34.4 percent of his throws are going to open receivers, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, the worst rate in the league for quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts. As an example, there were three third-and-long plays against the Lions in which the Cardinals just ran curl routes to the sticks and had Rosen choose an option. Darius Slay knocked out the first throw to J.J. Nelson, then returned the second for a pick-sixwhen rookie Trent Sherfield didn't come back to the ball. On the third, Sherfield came back to the ball but wasn't able to make it back to the sticks to convert, with the Cardinals subsequently punting on fourth-and-1.
There are situations in which an offense might want to run all curl routes and let its quarterback choose which receiver he wants to hit, but this isn't it. Rosen doesn't have the velocity to whip those throws in, and the Cardinals don't have the receivers to scare opposing defensive backs into respecting the threat of getting beat downfield if they sit at the sticks. On the interception, Rosen also chose to throw the curl to his most inexperienced receiver when Sherfield was matched up one-on-one with the best cornerback in Detroit's backfield, which is certainly curious.
Rosen's accuracy also hasn't been consistent. He's capable of anticipating a receiver coming open and throwing before the break, as he does with Nelson on this would-be touchdown, but Rosen's throw travels too far upfield and is uncatchable. He has actually been significantly better in the red zone, as Rosen ranks last in QBR outside of the red zone and 19th inside the opposition's 20-yard line. His anticipation plays up inside the 20, as it did on his fourth-quarter touchdown passes to Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk in the comeback victory over the 49ers.
What's next: More completions. Rosen can't spend so much time in third-and-long, where his offensive line isn't able to hold up. The Cardinals have to throw more on early downs and give Rosen easier completions. If the current staff isn't creative enough to create safe throws for its young quarterback, he'll need a new offensive coordinator. If Fitzgerald retires this offseason, the Cardinals would suddenly have the worst set of receivers in the league. Some help there might make everyone's lives easier.
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Josh Rosen, Arizona Cardinals
Pick: No. 10 | Starts: 10 | Total QBR: 30.5
If anyone deserves a mulligan out of this group, it's Rosen. The 21-year-old UCLA product is already on his second offensive coordinator after Mike McCoy was fired and replaced by Byron Leftwich. Perhaps more importantly, Arizona has somehow lost each of its five starting offensive linemen, which is close to unprecedented for an NFL offensive line. The guys replacing the deposed starters aren't exactly experienced, either:
D.J. Humphries 18 Korey Cunningham 0
LG Mike Iupati 104 Colby Gossett 0
C A.Q. Shipley 54 Mason Cole 0
RG Justin Pugh 63 Oday Aboushi 26
RT Andre Smith 85 Joe Barksdale 74
Joe Barksdale inflates the totals, but he was just signed after being released by the Chargers last week and went straight into the starting lineup five days later, which is telling. All of the players along that projected starting line have had injury issues, so it's not necessarily surprising that they would struggle to stay healthy, but it's difficult to evaluate any quarterback behind a truly patchwork offensive line.
It's easy for young quarterbacks to develop bad habits behind that sort of line. Some passers, even if they didn't have issues in college, begin to tuck and scramble at the first sign of pressure. They stop looking downfield and start attuning their eyes toward the footsteps they sense are coming before the defense even arrives. It's fair to wonder whether a quarterback like David Carr might have had an entirely different career if he had developed behind a better offensive line.
The good news, at least for now, is that Rosen isn't exhibiting those issues yet. The most promising part of Rosen's development remains his footwork, which is remarkably consistent. He just looks comfortable in the pocket, even as pressure whizzes by him. Rosen isn't going to be much of a scrambler, but he already has superb instincts for when and where to step up in the pocket and create a throwing lane. If anything, he might be too focused downfield and take more coverage sacks than the Cardinals would want.
It's fair to wonder whether the Cardinals could do more to create easy throws for Rosen. He hasn't seen any sort of jump under Leftwich's tenure. David Johnson's usage rate in the passing game hasn't changed much; after averaging 19.1 routes and 4.3 targets per game before McCoy's firing, Johnson is averaging 18.3 routes and 5.2 targets per game under Leftwich. Most of the target increase came in Sunday's loss to the Lions, when Johnson caught eight passes on 10 targets for a grand total of 12 yards.
Whether it's the receivers or the scheme (and it's likely a bit of both), Rosen just doesn't have easy passes. A mere 34.4 percent of his throws are going to open receivers, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, the worst rate in the league for quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts. As an example, there were three third-and-long plays against the Lions in which the Cardinals just ran curl routes to the sticks and had Rosen choose an option. Darius Slay knocked out the first throw to J.J. Nelson, then returned the second for a pick-sixwhen rookie Trent Sherfield didn't come back to the ball. On the third, Sherfield came back to the ball but wasn't able to make it back to the sticks to convert, with the Cardinals subsequently punting on fourth-and-1.
There are situations in which an offense might want to run all curl routes and let its quarterback choose which receiver he wants to hit, but this isn't it. Rosen doesn't have the velocity to whip those throws in, and the Cardinals don't have the receivers to scare opposing defensive backs into respecting the threat of getting beat downfield if they sit at the sticks. On the interception, Rosen also chose to throw the curl to his most inexperienced receiver when Sherfield was matched up one-on-one with the best cornerback in Detroit's backfield, which is certainly curious.
Rosen's accuracy also hasn't been consistent. He's capable of anticipating a receiver coming open and throwing before the break, as he does with Nelson on this would-be touchdown, but Rosen's throw travels too far upfield and is uncatchable. He has actually been significantly better in the red zone, as Rosen ranks last in QBR outside of the red zone and 19th inside the opposition's 20-yard line. His anticipation plays up inside the 20, as it did on his fourth-quarter touchdown passes to Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk in the comeback victory over the 49ers.
What's next: More completions. Rosen can't spend so much time in third-and-long, where his offensive line isn't able to hold up. The Cardinals have to throw more on early downs and give Rosen easier completions. If the current staff isn't creative enough to create safe throws for its young quarterback, he'll need a new offensive coordinator. If Fitzgerald retires this offseason, the Cardinals would suddenly have the worst set of receivers in the league. Some help there might make everyone's lives easier.
