NIL, transfer portal delivering a blow to the NFL draft's underdog stories

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INDIANAPOLIS — Darius Alexander has specks of gray on the sides of his jet-black hair.

He’s 24 years old and will be 25 by the time his rookie season begins. By almost every measurement, Alexander is a young man. Before the COVID-19 pandemic altered NCAA eligibility restrictions, Alexander would have been a dinosaur in NFL draft circles.

While more players have been willing to stay in school for five or six seasons to take advantage of their new eligibility and NIL opportunities in recent years, Alexander is still a throwback. He spent all six college seasons at Toledo, a traditional MAC power, but in the MAC nonetheless.

Even as Alexander crept onto the radar of NFL scouts with freakish athleticism for a 305-pound man, he didn’t jump for a bigger spotlight and a matching bank account. Alexander was one of three MAC players invited to the Senior Bowl and one of four invited to the NFL scouting combine in February.

A decade ago, seven MAC players earned combine invitations. While non-Power 4 conference players still get opportunities — Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell was first-round pick for the Eagles last year — they are jumping ship to bigger schools at a higher rate.

Alexander’s MAC counterpart Shaun Dolac followed a similar path at the University at Buffalo. But despite being a consensus All-American and leading the nation in tackles, Dolac wasn't invited to any postseason all-star games after declaring for the draft, nor did he receive an invite to the combine.

For prospects like Dolac, NFL scouts can think two ways. They can question why a player didn’t end up at a bigger school or they can praise their loyalty for sticking around. Either way, underdog draft stories are diminishing.

“I don’t think (staying at Buffalo) was a big issue for teams,” Dolac said at his pro day last month. “If you can play football, no matter what level you’re at, they’ll find you. And they found me.”

From 1998 to 2004, the MAC produced six first-round picks, including Hall of Famer Randy Moss and future Hall of Famer Ben Roethlisberger. And from 2007 to 2014, there were six more first-round picks, led by Buffalo’s Khalil Mack and 2013 No. 1 overall pick Eric Fisher from Central Michigan.

But in the last 11 seasons there have been just two first-round picks from the conference. Mitchell was the only non-Power 4 player taken in the first round over the last two seasons after 19 (like Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen) were taken in the previous decade.

But the transfer portal has allowed players to move freely without the penalty of sitting out a season and players are taking advantage of it. In 2018-19, 1,561 players entered the portal and over 3,700 had already entered for the 2024-25 cycle despite the spring window opening Wednesday.

“The MAC is like hidden gems,” Bowling Green All-American tight end Harold Fannin Jr. said at the combine. “You kind of got to sift through it, but there's definitely some guys in there that can definitely step up (in the NFL).”

Just like smaller FBS schools, the FCS has also taken a hit. Ten years ago, 29 FCS players were invited to the combine and that number was whittled to seven this year, as all but 27 of the 329 players to receive invitations were from power-conference schools.

Five FCS players were drafted in the first round since 2014, like North Dakota State quarterbacks Carson Wentz (2016) and Trey Lance (2021), both of whom were taken in the top-three. North Dakota State offensive lineman Grey Zabel is currently projected as a first-round pick, one of the few players, along with Alexander, from small schools to be viewed in such esteem this year.

Zabel likely could have found an FBS school last season but stayed. For some players, especially in the FCS, there is a sense of loyalty. Many of them had limited scholarship opportunities and there is a sense of appreciation.

Villanova defensive back Isas Waxter, a former teammate of Bills cornerback Christian Benford, planned to attend Rutgers. But his scholarship was pulled just before signing day and Villanova was the school that offered him a chance to play Division I football close to his hometown, Newark, New Jersey.

At 6-foot-1, 209 pounds, Waxter played 46 games in five seasons for Villanova and he did enough to earn an invitation to the combine with hopes of becoming a late-round draft pick.

“I would say it adds to my grit, just knowing you’re a little bit of an underdog,” Waxter said. “You weren’t looked at like you’re supposed to be here and stuff like that. So just putting yourself in this kind of situation is great for yourself and adds to your grit personally.”

Some players need to add some grit to become NFL prospects or simply need time to develop. Even after attending a prep school following graduation from West Seneca East, Dolac was still a walk-on at Buffalo.

Western Michigan cornerback Bilhal Kone went to Iowa Central Community College out of high school, then spent a year at FCS Indiana State before playing his final two seasons in the MAC. He reaffirmed his love for football and whether or not he wanted to pursue it, earning him a trip to the Senior Bowl and the combine.

“It helped me be who I am today,” Kone said. “Not going D-1 right out of high school, going JUCO. That’s a place you learn your real purpose of why you’re here. Do you really love football? … It’s not a place you want to just mess around at. You want to get in there, you want to get to work.”

Dolac briefly transferred to Utah State but returned to Buffalo in time for the 2023 season. He could have stayed at Buffalo or entered the portal for one more college season, but opted to try the NFL.

“There’s nothing really left for me to prove at all,” Dolac said. “... I just need that one team to take a chance on me.”

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