Note to Self: Bradley Sowell is Not Very Good

[kerouac9]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/under-pressure/2013/under-pressure-trolley-problems

Despite not starting from the beginning of the season, Bradley Sowell has made up for lost time. He's currently 8T for most sacks given up through Week 15.

But don't worry, Eric Winston and Paul Fanika are not far behind.

Ick.

 

[Broseph]

That is why we go OT with our first pick and then have Cooper come back. Will be just like drafting two 1st round lineman. I think this team is a decent line away from being a serious playoff contender.

 

[CardLogic]

That is why we go OT with our first pick and then have Cooper come back. Will be just like drafting two 1st round lineman. I think this team is a decent line away from being a serious playoff contender.

OT and SS, OLB in that order.

 

[GatorAZ]

The two worst starters on the team are both tackles. RIP Palmer on Sunday.

 

[CFLredzoned]

I heard recently that we still have the worst rated pass blocking OL in the league, if not one of the worst of all time. I think I heard this on the Revenge of the Birds podcast, referring to the Pro Football Focus OL stats. I could be wrong about the source though. Anyway, I think it says alot about the coaching staff's ability to make due with the hand they're dealt.

 

[DoTheDew]

OT and SS, OLB in that order.

Only if there's a good one sitting there. I don't want a 3rd round talent in the 1st round because we predetermined that we want an OT. That mentality got us Levi Brown.

 

[football karma]

the good news:

its a good year for offensive linemen. I think the team could get a quality left tackle prospect at #20 or so, and a quality guard or right tackle prospect at #52. Note the term "prospect".

I also heard from two different media types that the Cards "prefer to address left tackle via free agency". I think it was Jurecki and Calvisi. Say what you want about those guys -- but when two guys from different outlets say the same thing, I think it means they heard it from the Cards.

I am curious what the team thinks of Watford. Its kind of the way a lot of teams do it -- draft a promising guy later in the draft, have him learn for a year or so and then slot him in. Also curious about Massie's status. I heard a quick blurb that basically intimated his problem was mental rather than physical -- trouble picking up the offense.

 

[crisper57]

Can you write a note to yourself on a public MB, or is that an oxymoron?

 

[Cardiac]

I heard recently that we still have the worst rated pass blocking OL in the league, if not one of the worst of all time. I think I heard this on the Revenge of the Birds podcast, referring to the Pro Football Focus OL stats. I could be wrong about the source though. Anyway, I think it says alot about the coaching staff's ability to make due with the hand they're dealt.

Football Outsiders have the Cards Oline ranked 16th in pass protection using their adjusted sack rate formula. Ten teams have given up more sacks then the Cards and two other teams have given up 38 sacks, same as the Cards. The NFL avg is 36 sacks allowed.

Not saying one is a better source than the other but I don't know how we get the worst pass blocking Oline when ten teams have given up more sacks.

I hope the Cards can address the LT glaring need in FA. This would allow us to get the pass rusher we need in rd1. For all you BPA guys, I agree so trade up or back but get the friggin pass rusher.

 

[Buckybird]

But Sowell has played better than, as well as the entire Oline since #75 was sent packing!!! Less breakdowns & more production offensively
IMO the entire unit has played better since that Saints game other than the Hawks game. They're not great now, but thinking the 2 Olines this year & last year are comparable is beyond ridiculous. And the production has gotten better starting at LT unless you're blind.

Coencidence? I think not!

 

[Darkside]

BA is doing an awesome job of hiding/helping weaknesses and accentuating strengths. I'll always like Whis, but if he were still coaching and putting them on islands we'd get a truer sense of how bad they are.

 

[juza76]

colledge is certainly our best player in the offesinve line this year..maybe they can re-do his contract.
i think in the 20th spot range there will be some good tackle like lewan,antonio richradson ot tennesee,cameron erving florida state,Kouandjio alabama,grey robinson auburn that probably was the best tackle in this season.
i dont think there are safeties worth 1st and 2nd round pick.
if boyd or mccarron are available at round 2 i will consider them,if not i ll take best pass rusher available(jeffcoat).
other picks should be cornerback and defensive line depth and maybe a rb considering mendanhall wont be resigned.
a safety could be taken in free agency,i dont know who will be free agent after this season.
i think mathieu could be the next troy polamalu if he add some weight.
so a tall Fs with good cover skills safety is a need

 

[ajcardfan]

I heard recently that we still have the worst rated pass blocking OL in the league, if not one of the worst of all time. I think I heard this on the Revenge of the Birds podcast, referring to the Pro Football Focus OL stats. I could be wrong about the source though. Anyway, I think it says alot about the coaching staff's ability to make due with the hand they're dealt.

No kidding. Sowell and Winston play from horrible to slightly below average at best. It's exciting to think what this staff could do on offense with a couple of decent OTs in those spots next year. What they have done with a guy off the street in September and a FA nobody else wanted the entire offseason.... wow.

Maybe this is what it's like to have an o-line coach that can actually coach.


Russ Grimm was just like Mean Joe Greene. I never really saw them coach much at all at practice. They just stood around like the aura of their greatness as players was enough to do the job.

 

[Garthshort]

IMO, Bradley is playing better than we should have expected. Not saying that we don't need a new LT, just saying that he's been better than I thought he'd be. Doesn't seem that our OL has been hit with as many false start penalties as last year (anyone have numbers?). I feel the same about our entire OL.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

the good news:

its a good year for offensive linemen. I think the team could get a quality left tackle prospect at #20 or so, and a quality guard or right tackle prospect at #52. Note the term "prospect".

I also heard from two different media types that the Cards "prefer to address left tackle via free agency". I think it was Jurecki and Calvisi. Say what you want about those guys -- but when two guys from different outlets say the same thing, I think it means they heard it from the Cards.

I am curious what the team thinks of Watford. Its kind of the way a lot of teams do it -- draft a promising guy later in the draft, have him learn for a year or so and then slot him in. Also curious about Massie's status. I heard a quick blurb that basically intimated his problem was mental rather than physical -- trouble picking up the offense.

Hopefully, they target Monroe. I bet they're kicking themselves for not making a run at him at the trade deadline. Other than Albert, he's the only LT worth making a run at in free agency. Albert is good but has injury concerns. I was hoping Anthony Collins may hit free agency but he's now starting at LT for Cincy and they'll likely keep him.

 

[MadCardDisease]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/under-pressure/2013/under-pressure-trolley-problems

Despite not starting from the beginning of the season, Bradley Sowell has made up for lost time. He's currently 8T for most sacks given up through Week 15.

But don't worry, Eric Winston and Paul Fanika are not far behind.

Ick.

There was a reason why he was let go by the Colts. Good OTs are not just let go.

It just goes to show how good the offensive coaching staff has been at covering up our biggest weakness. Although it's difficult to hide this weakness against teams like the Seahawks and Niners.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

They are bad, no doubt.

Scary thing ? Two out of the three are better than what we had (yes, K9 and myself DO NOT see eye to eye on that). Arrogantly, I don't put as much stock in offensive line stats as I do my own eyes, thus this is strict opinion.

Sowell, he is better than Levi Brown. Not saying much but he is.

Paul Fanaika is way better than Adam Snyder, and lets not get on Fanaika too much, he is a backup that is starting for us......that being said is he our RG next year ? I dunno.

Eric Winston is the key player in the question of "what the heck happen to Bobby Massie?"

AT LEAST, the front office has tried to do something and we are not staring at:

LT: L.Brown
LG: D.Colledge
OC: L.Sendlein
RG: A.Snyder
RT: B.Massie

again this year. They are trying, they are getting players in and as it shows in the record are making it work with what they have.

First things first is replacing Sowell. Yes, I am a fan, but it is more that he is NOT Levi Brown. Getting Sowell resulted in getting rid of Levi Brown, which is a win in my book.

Next, is figure out what the heck is going on at right tackle. If Bobby Massie is not a Arians' guy, then move him for what ever you can get for him. I have some faith in the scouting department again, so a low round pick would be fine with me. I would rather see Massie play, and succeed but if he is the square peg in the round hole, then why force it ? That is how we ended up with Levi Brown for 5 years too long.

Finally, there is no way Daryn Colledge is coming back and playing for the Cardinals at his current salary of $7,275,000. NO WAY. So, throw that into the mix too!

Next season, I would suspect this is what is penciled in:

LT: Best player they can get
LG: Jonathan Cooper
OC: Lyle Sendlein
RG: Earl Watford
RT: Winston/Massie

Backups:
Paul Fanaika
Nate Potter
[BPA]

Note I said pencilled, far from what it will be next year. Lot a work to be done.

That beings said, if the offensive line is bad, and the record is good, then the coaching must be the difference ?

 

[CFLredzoned]

Football Outsiders have the Cards Oline ranked 16th in pass protection using their adjusted sack rate formula. Ten teams have given up more sacks then the Cards and two other teams have given up 38 sacks, same as the Cards. The NFL avg is 36 sacks allowed.

Not saying one is a better source than the other but I don't know how we get the worst pass blocking Oline when ten teams have given up more sacks.

I was starting to wonder if I heard what I thought I heard. I went back and listened to the ROB podcast again. Seth Cox mentions that we're at the bottom of the Pro Football Focus Pass Blocking Efficiency rating at 69.5, which he says is the lowest in the history of the rating. Pro Football Focus mentions it here in the Cards/Hags preview article: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/12/20/3tfo-cardinals-seahawks-week-16/. But they also mention: "they have played better in recent weeks, coinciding with the Cardinals’ recent resurgence." Wow, we must have really played bad in the first half of the season, if our recent "resurgence" couldn't get us out of the cellar.

That is a huge gap between the two sources: from worst of all time to 16th in 2013. I wonder what accounts for that difference. Okay, here's Football Outsiders: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol. Yup, we're ranked 16 there in Adjusted Sack Rate at 7.3%, which is "Teams are ranked according to Adjusted Sack Rate, which gives sacks (plus intentional grounding penalties) per pass attempt adjusted for down, distance, and opponent." So it sounds like Football Outsiders adjusts for strength of schedule. And this makes sense. Look at the defensive fronts we've faced: Carolina, the Rams twice, San Francisco, Seattle, New Orleans.

Pro Football Focus's Pass Blocking Efficiency - https://www.profootballfocus.com/about/pff-signature-stats/ - "Making full use of our snap data and pressure tallies, plays spent in pass protection are compared to the total number of QB disruptions allowed by each player. The Pass Blocking Efficiency (PBE) formula weighs sacks a bit heavier than hits and hurries and produces a rating that reflects the most efficient pass blockers on a per-pass-blocking snap basis with scores closer to 100 being best." So they take into account hurries and knockdowns, without adjusting for strength of schedule and game factors. So there's the difference. But yeah, it sounds like the Football Outsiders numbers would provide a more accurate overall picture, considering that they adjust for opponent and game situation.

Funny, look at who they mention in their example: "Example: Part of the offensive line unit that finished second in Pass Blocking Efficiency (behind only the New York Jets) in 2010, former top pick Jake Long led his Dolphins teammates by working the blindside edge to a personal PBE of 97.2; allowing just 21 total pressures on over 600 pass-blocking snaps. In a similar number of snaps, Cardinals OT Levi Brown surrendered 70 (91.0 PBE)."

 

[PDXChris]

LT: Best player they can get
LG: Jonathan Cooper
OC: Lyle Sendlein
RG: Earl Watford
RT: Winston/Massie

Backups:
Paul Fanaika
Nate Potter
[BPA]

I do not think Winston or Potter is no the roster next year. I also think if we bring in a LT, Sowell could battle Massie for RT. I am interested to see if Sowell could be a decent RT after showing signs here and there at LT, but as pointed out, still a major liability there. Then we have to hope that Watford progressed otherwise it is with Fanaika or Colledge at RG. The point is, there is still a lot of work to b done there and having Palmer has hidden a lot of holes on the OL that are unchanged from last year.

 

[Mulli]

But what about his winning percentage!!!

JUST WIN!:number1:

 

[Cardiac]

I was starting to wonder if I heard what I thought I heard. I went back and listened to the ROB podcast again. Seth Cox mentions that we're at the bottom of the Pro Football Focus Pass Blocking Efficiency rating at 69.5, which he says is the lowest in the history of the rating. Pro Football Focus mentions it here in the Cards/Hags preview article: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/12/20/3tfo-cardinals-seahawks-week-16/. But they also mention: "they have played better in recent weeks, coinciding with the Cardinals’ recent resurgence." Wow, we must have really played bad in the first half of the season, if our recent "resurgence" couldn't get us out of the cellar.

That is a huge gap between the two sources: from worst of all time to 16th in 2013. I wonder what accounts for that difference. Okay, here's Football Outsiders: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol. Yup, we're ranked 16 there in Adjusted Sack Rate at 7.3%, which is "Teams are ranked according to Adjusted Sack Rate, which gives sacks (plus intentional grounding penalties) per pass attempt adjusted for down, distance, and opponent." So it sounds like Football Outsiders adjusts for strength of schedule. And this makes sense. Look at the defensive fronts we've faced: Carolina, the Rams twice, San Francisco, Seattle, New Orleans.

Pro Football Focus's Pass Blocking Efficiency - https://www.profootballfocus.com/about/pff-signature-stats/ - "Making full use of our snap data and pressure tallies, plays spent in pass protection are compared to the total number of QB disruptions allowed by each player. The Pass Blocking Efficiency (PBE) formula weighs sacks a bit heavier than hits and hurries and produces a rating that reflects the most efficient pass blockers on a per-pass-blocking snap basis with scores closer to 100 being best." So they take into account hurries and knockdowns, without adjusting for strength of schedule and game factors. So there's the difference. But yeah, it sounds like the Football Outsiders numbers would provide a more accurate overall picture, considering that they adjust for opponent and game situation.

Funny, look at who they mention in their example: "Example: Part of the offensive line unit that finished second in Pass Blocking Efficiency (behind only the New York Jets) in 2010, former top pick Jake Long led his Dolphins teammates by working the blindside edge to a personal PBE of 97.2; allowing just 21 total pressures on over 600 pass-blocking snaps. In a similar number of snaps, Cardinals OT Levi Brown surrendered 70 (91.0 PBE)."

That's a lot of time and effort, thanks.

Another funny thing is that the Cards have been ranked pretty much 16 or 17 on FB outsiders most of this year. I think most of us would agree that the pass blocking has improved as the year has gone on. So maybe FB outsiders should be tracking hits, hurries etc.

 

[PDXChris]

That's a lot of time and effort, thanks.

Another funny thing is that the Cards have been ranked pretty much 16 or 17 on FB outsiders most of this year. I think most of us would agree that the pass blocking has improved as the year has gone on. So maybe FB outsiders should be tracking hits, hurries etc.

The problem I have with all OL stats are that you do not know the play, so you do not know if someone else missed an assignment causing someone else to get a poor rating. The are too many unknown variables that only the coaches and players know for certain.

 

[juza76]

The problem I have with all OL stats are that you do not know the play, so you do not know if someone else missed an assignment causing someone else to get a poor rating. The are too many unknown variables that only the coaches and players know for certain.

yes this is winston defense agaisnt the grade made by profotball.
i think maybe they can use other parameters,such in 1vs 1 for how long they can keep a rusher far from qb..so then u can make a statistic with number of snaps and percentage of allowed pressure in 1vs 1 match up.

 

[PDXChris]

yes this is winston defense agaisnt the grade made by profotball.
i think maybe they can use other parameters,such in 1vs 1 for how long they can keep a rusher far from qb..so then u can make a statistic with number of snaps and percentage of allowed pressure in 1vs 1 match up

The problem is some players will not see nearly as many one on ones as others, so the percentages will be skewed. Also, it goes back to my first point, if the TE was suppose to help and the OT expected it, he could be in a bad position and get beat easily if the TE ran a route instead. I work in data for a living and there is no way I would puts those kind of stats out there and feel confident in them. It also like some of Palmer's early season INT's. We have no clue if thru WR ran the wrong route and caused the INT or not. Basing success in the NFL on numbers alone for many things is very misleading.

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

Sowell ain't good but I'm not surprised this thread was started by a guy who used to constantly defend his inferior and higher paid predecessor.