From what I heard on this topic from last season..they kind of do an offset - they take who you signed from other teams versus who you lost off of your teams. Players like Emmitt and Hodgins are not part of the formula - as they were cut by their teams (they were under contract) - only applies to players who went into the offseason as unrestricted free agents. So..we lost:
David Boston
Jake Plummer
Frank Sanders
Kwamie Lassiter
We signed :
Dexter Jackson
Jeff Blake
James Darling
So...in the eyes of statistics only - plummer and boston had good years...sanders did nothing and lassiter did very little. On the offset of who we signed..jackson and blake had ok years.
I speculate it will be a 4th round pick - it is always less than you think it should be.