Offensive Line

[GuernseyCard]

Why anyone thinks a contract signed a year, two, three years ago, given the rise of CAP, is relevant is beyond me.

The economics of the game change every year!

 

[slanidrac16]

No, but I do agree with the move on part if he is asking for that kind of money. At best I offer him is the Riley Reiff contract (5 yrs $58.75M) and incentive the hell out of it. If he makes a Pro Bowl then he hits a bonus, if he plays 13 games or a certain number of snaps a season that's another bonus and I put a Nick Foles / Tyrod Taylor void clause (deal voids in 2 years but team has a negotiating window prior to deal voiding deadline) in it to make sure we don't pay him for a 60ish PFF grade season, if after the second year he still sucks then boom goes the dynamite on his contract. This team needs to protect itself from the 2015 - 2018 version of DJ Humphries.

Never in a million years will Humphries go for this. Maybe he’d go for a three year with a fourth year option. Three years 39 m with 15 gauranteed. Fourth year club option @ 15m. Something like this or tag him.

 

[TheCardFan]

If you make DJ play under the tag in 2020, it is a no win scenario. Either he plays well, and you now have to pay him as one of the highest in the league or he craps the bed and you wasted 14 mil on him. Pay him the 14 mil for 5 years and move on.

That doesn't make sense. If he craps the bed you are out 30-40m vs 14m.

I am fine to pay him a big contract if he earns it and stays healthy next year.

We are not talking about a guy that has started full time for the past 3-4 years...we are talking about a guy that has only played an entire season 1 time in 5 years (almost 2/13 games in one of them).

 

[Chopper0080]

Nate Solder's contract is very important in this negotiation.

4 yrs.
62 mil.
34.8 in full guarantees.
At the age of 30.

 

[TheCardFan]

Why anyone thinks a contract signed a year, two, three years ago, given the rise of CAP, is relevant is beyond me.

The economics of the game change every year!

The economics of blowing huge contracts on under performing players is the problem. (See David Johnson)

Humphries has proven less at this point than David Johnson did to get his big contract.

 

[Chopper0080]

That doesn't make sense. If he craps the bed you are out 30-40m vs 14m.

I am fine to pay him a big contract if he earns it and stays healthy next year.

We are not talking about a guy that has started full time for the past 3-4 years...we are talking about a guy that has only played an entire season 1 time in 5 years (almost 2/13 games in one of them).

There is no win if you pay him 14 mil for one year.

He plays moderately well, and now you are paying him 18 per year with the last year a year older.

He plays poorly...you wasted 14 mil and have a hole on your roster to have to pay someone else.

If you give him 14 mil for 5 years and he plays at the same level, you at least have a bargain contract three years from now.

 

[Chopper0080]

The economics of blowing huge contracts on under performing players is the problem. (See David Johnson)

Humphries has proven less at this point than David Johnson did to get his big contract.

One bad contract doesn't ruin you...multiple bad contracts is what does it. And I really disagree with the comp between him and David Johnson. Humphries has done way more to deserve a long term contract than David Johnson.

 

[TheCardFan]

Nate Solder's contract is very important in this negotiation.

4 yrs.
62 mil.
34.8 in full guarantees.
At the age of 30.

Nate Solder sucks. He doesn't miss games but he gives up a ton of sacks. He never should have received that contract.

I would 100% franchise DJ though due to injury history.

Donavan Smith (TB) is the real contract to consider IMO (not a penny more):

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[TheCardFan]

One bad contract doesn't ruin you...multiple bad contracts is what does it. And I really disagree with the comp between him and David Johnson. Humphries has done way more to deserve a long term contract than David Johnson.

Like what?

 

[Chopper0080]

No, but I do agree with the move on part if he is asking for that kind of money. At best I offer him is the Riley Reiff contract (5 yrs $58.75M) and incentive the hell out of it. If he makes a Pro Bowl then he hits a bonus, if he plays 13 games or a certain number of snaps a season that's another bonus and I put a Nick Foles / Tyrod Taylor void clause (deal voids in 2 years but team has a negotiating window prior to deal voiding deadline) in it to make sure we don't pay him for a 60ish PFF grade season, if after the second year he still sucks then boom goes the dynamite on his contract. This team needs to protect itself from the 2015 - 2018 version of DJ Humphries.

What is funny is that you are arguing against the exact contract that you are saying he should take.

Salary cap in 2017 when Reiff signed his contract was 167 million.

Projected salary cap in 2020 is 200 million.

That is a 19.7% increase.

Apply that increase of 19.7% to Reiff's contract of 5yrs, 58.75mil with 26.3 guaranteed (11.75 mil per season)and you get 5yrs, 70.32mil with 31.46 guaranteed (14.06 mil per season).

 

[Chopper0080]

Like what?

Play at a higher level after injury.
Play a less replaceable position.
Play a position that doesn't fall off a cliff before the end of the projected contract.

 

[Chopper0080]

Nate Solder sucks. He doesn't miss games but he gives up a ton of sacks. He never should have received that contract.

I would 100% franchise DJ though due to injury history.

Donavan Smith (TB) is the real contract to consider IMO (not a penny more):

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Honest question, have you been a part of negotiations because here is how this one goes.

You - DJ, we think you comp is the Donovan Smith contract 3yrs, 41.25 mil (13.75 per year) w/ 27 mil in guarantees.

DJ's agent - Sure, and the cap is going up by 6.2% so we can apply that to the 2019 deal Smith signed. He will sign a 3 year, 43.807 mil contract (14.6 mil per year) with 28.62 mil guaranteed. See you in 3 years when he is 29 and ready to sign another top value contract.

 

[Solar7]

I am amazed at anyone who is comfortable with this O-Line or thinks Gaillard or Cole will ever take meaningful snaps at starter. Justin Murray is nothing but a backup, but I could see re-signing him. I bet we re-sign Shipley and Humphries. There's not really an option but to pay the man at LT, and while we should desperately try to upgrade at C, I just don't anticipate us doing so.

It's disappointing, but maybe I'll be surprised.

 

[Chopper0080]

I am amazed at anyone who is comfortable with this O-Line or thinks Gaillard or Cole will ever take meaningful snaps at starter. Justin Murray is nothing but a backup, but I could see re-signing him. I bet we re-sign Shipley and Humphries. There's not really an option but to pay the man at LT, and while we should desperately try to upgrade at C, I just don't anticipate us doing so.

It's disappointing, but maybe I'll be surprised.

Here is what I am comfortable with.

I think Cole might be the best backup offensive linemen the Cardinals have had since they came to Arizona.

I think Murray would be the best backup OT we have had in that same span.

I think we have an opportunity to start developing a cheaper offensive line that does not consume so much of our cap and we can pick and choose a little who sign and keep.

I think we have a unique situation to have consistency on the unit for two consecutive years.

I think we have an opportunity to add talent without being desperate to add talent.

###

Do I want to head into next year with this same group? No.

Do I think this group could be just as good next as it was this year? Yes.

If McGovern doesn't get franchised, I think we take a run at him. If he does, I think we re-sign Shipley.

If one of the top two C's is available in round 2, I bet we select one. If not, maybe one later or roll another year with Gaillard.

The best part is that we have options that are not based on being desperate for once.

 

[DVontel]

I would be ok with Gaillard starting at Center next year.

 

[Solar7]

Here is what I am comfortable with.

I think Cole might be the best backup offensive linemen the Cardinals have had since they came to Arizona.

I think Murray would be the best backup OT we have had in that same span.

I think we have an opportunity to start developing a cheaper offensive line that does not consume so much of our cap and we can pick and choose a little who sign and keep.

I think we have a unique situation to have consistency on the unit for two consecutive years.

I think we have an opportunity to add talent without being desperate to add talent.

###

Do I want to head into next year with this same group? No.

Do I think this group could be just as good next as it was this year? Yes.

If McGovern doesn't get franchised, I think we take a run at him. If he does, I think we re-sign Shipley.

If one of the top two C's is available in round 2, I bet we select one. If not, maybe one later or roll another year with Gaillard.

The best part is that we have options that are not based on being desperate for once.

You and I still feel dramatically different about the talent at these positions, but more power to you. With three starters on the line currently unsigned, I think we're way more desperate than it seems.

As always, hoping I'm wrong. I really, really, really would love us to draft someone with a snowball's chance of making even just a Pro Bowl. Our best players are average, without a single dominant one among them.

 

[TheCardFan]

Honest question, have you been a part of negotiations because here is how this one goes.

You - DJ, we think you comp is the Donovan Smith contract 3yrs, 41.25 mil (13.75 per year) w/ 27 mil in guarantees.

DJ's agent - Sure, and the cap is going up by 6.2% so we can apply that to the 2019 deal Smith signed. He will sign a 3 year, 43.807 mil contract (14.6 mil per year) with 28.62 mil guaranteed. See you in 3 years when he is 29 and ready to sign another top value contract.

Yes sir...I negotiate for a living.

It's not just the contract...there are other variables at play.

Availability is one of those variables. Donovan Smith has it, DJ doesn't.

You also have to consider risk in the equation.

Cardinals risk:

Low - Franchise him and make him show he can do it again. 14m
Medium - Sign him to a D. Smith type deal (lower years but more guaranteed money). Works for both sides if that is their motivation. 30m
High - Long term deal with his average play and significant history of injuries going back to college. 30-40m but also top LT $

In another post, I showed you the franchise money for OL has gone down 3 years in a row.

The Cardinals have the power this year.

 

[TheCardFan]

I would be ok with Gaillard starting at Center next year.

I hope he earns it...best case scenario.

 

[AZCrazy]

Humphries at LT and a combo of Sweezy, Pugh, Cole, and another guard (maybe Garcia can come back from his injury. He started 4 yrs in Denver, including the Super Bowl, before coming here) can shore up three of the positions to acceptable levels. Our center needs to be able to run block better, whoever it is. RT ? Do you want to give Josh Miles a chance? Just drafted him a year ago and he's had a year to upgrade his game under Kugler.

We have $70MM under the cap for next year to spend on FA and the draft.
We need a couple of impact guys, not depth level guys. Go try to nab Scherff or Castonzo or Bulaga for the OL and/or Amari Cooper or AJ Green for #1 WR. Leave the draft open to kill it on defense with young cheap talent.

 

[Solar7]

I would be ok with Gaillard starting at Center next year.

Again, not sure how you say that when it's a guy who hasn't played any significant snaps and is a 6th round pick. It would be such a ridiculous Keim move to roll with that as his plan.

 

[GuernseyCard]

I would be ok with Gaillard starting at Center next year.

Why?

You've have precisely nothing to go on.

 

[DVontel]

Again, not sure how you say that when it's a guy who hasn't played any significant snaps and is a 6th round pick. It would be such a ridiculous Keim move to roll with that as his plan.

Alright.


I would hate it. I would also hate every & any non-1st rounder there because no non-1st rounder has succeeded at the center position.


Fair?

 

[DVontel]

Why?

You've have precisely nothing to go on.

His college film & traits?

 

[overseascardfan]

Never in a million years will Humphries go for this. Maybe he’d go for a three year with a fourth year option. Three years 39 m with 15 gauranteed. Fourth year club option @ 15m. Something like this or tag him.

Then transition tag him and let him see what other teams set his value at, he didn't do anything to raise his market aside from being 26 years old. He is the 40 something ranked FA, I don't see teams paying am arm and a leg for arguably the 4th best OT on market. Most of the FA money will go to the Top 20 FA's on market.

What is funny is that you are arguing against the exact contract that you are saying he should take.

Salary cap in 2017 when Reiff signed his contract was 167 million.

Projected salary cap in 2020 is 200 million.

That is a 19.7% increase.

Apply that increase of 19.7% to Reiff's contract of 5yrs, 58.75mil with 26.3 guaranteed (11.75 mil per season)and you get 5yrs, 70.32mil with 31.46 guaranteed (14.06 mil per season).

No increase, I'd offer $11M a year which is an increase from the $9.5M he got this year, if he hits all his incentives then he hits $14M, he doesn't most he'll make is the $26M then his deal gets voided if his deal isn't re-negotiated. Trade up and take Andrew Thomas, if Humphries bolts then you have your replacement.

 

[Solar7]

Alright.


I would hate it. I would also hate every & any non-1st rounder there because no non-1st rounder has succeeded at the center position.


Fair?

It doesn't have to be a first rounder, but we have nothing to go off of, like Guernsey said. Is this simply because he played well in two college starts against Quinnen Williams?

I don't know if you know something the rest of us don't, but you'd roll your eyes at me if I said that about KeeSean Johnson, and at least he looked good in preseason.