OT: Fan Duel/Draft Kings

[conraddobler]

Any one hand in poker chance is a bigger factor than it is over multiple hands.

Skill comes out through playing the odds, the hand and your opponent correctly. So if you get randomly assigned to leagues that could be a problem.

The worst poker players to play in the short run are terrible players because they do dumb crap that works out for one of them.

If you are playing 9 idiots and it's all or nothing at a ten person table then you can get blown up by some knucklehead that pushes all in with pocket deuces to your pocket aces on the flop forcing you to make the right call and yet they still hit a 2 on the river.

This would be the guy who takes some rookie flyer pick and has that guy score 4 TD's. I am sure someone had Marcus Mariota on their team for instance and if they did you're dead.

That's the chance portion and I'd have to know more about the structure of how those leagues are formed to tell you what to watch out for.

If true skill keeps getting beat weekly by random ass luck then it's not a game of skill it's totally gambling.

Furthermore I don't trust things online without some kind of very good oversight. Chances are these sites are maximizing for players.

They do this by psychological factors such as switching around leagues to give you a win or two to get you hooked. They can also play around with leagues based on who you picked in so many ways that it's not funny.

Ideally you would first be placed in a league with historical knowledge of the other players previous picks to start using skill.

They show guys who make all this money well if you sit a monkey at a typewriter and have them bang away for eternity eventually by random chance they will turn out a perfect copy of War and Peace. So these dudes could be totally on some epic ride of pure luck.

You really have to study what they are doing and when to see if they are skilled or just blind squirrels landing in a nut festival.

 

[ajcardfan]

If true skill keeps getting beat weekly by random ass luck then it's not a game of skill it's totally gambling.

I think this is true for betting on sports in general. And, these fantasy games are betting on predictions of the future.

The only reason there is sports betting in America is because the casinos, bookies, and now internet betting,is because it is extremely profitable. Which means way more people lose than win every freaking week basically.

 

[conraddobler]

I think this is true for betting on sports in general. And, these fantasy games are betting on predictions of the future.

The only reason there is sports betting in America is because the casinos, bookies, and now internet betting,is because it is extremely profitable. Which means way more people lose than win every freaking week basically.

I cant believe this is legal and internet poker isn't.

Well I can actually but it's just fubar and makes no sense logically other than I agree with what you are saying completely.

I don't see the NFL as being really smart here letting this go on either or encouraging it like they are because they are making targets for hijinx out of even run of the mill players.

With billions of dollars flying around and with computers involved it isn't hard to just print out a spread sheet of the most profitable players to take a dive.

Just don't catch that TD when you are up by two TD's and we'll make it right by you etc.

I don't think that's happening yet mind you but the bigger this gets the more likely that gets.

Who's to say these sites can't put together their own teams run by bots? They have all the advantage they KNOW who you have and they KNOW who everyone else has they can make a team and let them play for free and if they win they get to KEEP all the money.

I would NOT be surprised to see that going on.

Here's a scenario I can imagine. Suppose they develop and algo that puts you in leagues seeded with their bot teams based on who you have picked?

It would be trivially easy to do this software wise and if they did this and their team wins that is a fake then not only do they get their rake they get ALL THE MONEY.

Like I said I wouldn't trust these sites personally unless I knew a lot more about how it worked and who regulated them.

Just my opinion.

 

[ajcardfan]

I agree conrad. The whole thing looks like a fraud conviction just waiting to happen.

 

[Russ Smith]

I cant believe this is legal and internet poker isn't.

Well I can actually but it's just fubar and makes no sense logically other than I agree with what you are saying completely.

I don't see the NFL as being really smart here letting this go on either or encouraging it like they are because they are making targets for hijinx out of even run of the mill players.

With billions of dollars flying around and with computers involved it isn't hard to just print out a spread sheet of the most profitable players to take a dive.

Just don't catch that TD when you are up by two TD's and we'll make it right by you etc.

I don't think that's happening yet mind you but the bigger this gets the more likely that gets.

Who's to say these sites can't put together their own teams run by bots? They have all the advantage they KNOW who you have and they KNOW who everyone else has they can make a team and let them play for free and if they win they get to KEEP all the money.

I would NOT be surprised to see that going on.

Here's a scenario I can imagine. Suppose they develop and algo that puts you in leagues seeded with their bot teams based on who you have picked?

It would be trivially easy to do this software wise and if they did this and their team wins that is a fake then not only do they get their rake they get ALL THE MONEY.

Like I said I wouldn't trust these sites personally unless I knew a lot more about how it worked and who regulated them.

Just my opinion.

With internet poker the problem was people were cheating and they were the only ones who knew. 60 Minutes did a big story on it, they were literally able to see everyone else's hands, but they were the only ones who knew that.

I'm not sure there's a way to cheat that effectively at these fantasy sites? They don't know the outcome in advance, yes they can see who you have but unless they are able to change a lineup, after the fact, not sure how they can cheat as effectively as was done with Poker. That's why I never got into online poker and still wouldn't now. I'm just not convinced there is any way to know if the other players are cheating.

 

[conraddobler]

With internet poker the problem was people were cheating and they were the only ones who knew. 60 Minutes did a big story on it, they were literally able to see everyone else's hands, but they were the only ones who knew that.

I'm not sure there's a way to cheat that effectively at these fantasy sites? They don't know the outcome in advance, yes they can see who you have but unless they are able to change a lineup, after the fact, not sure how they can cheat as effectively as was done with Poker. That's why I never got into online poker and still wouldn't now. I'm just not convinced there is any way to know if the other players are cheating.

Those cheating were all on sites that allowed American players and thus were shady to start with.

It was also primarily in the big money high roller tables where they could see good players hands and knew they had them beat and would push insane amounts of money into the pot based on what they had.

For example guy has AK suited and you have a pair of 4's if you know what they have and you know they are a good player you can crush their re-raise on the flop and they will fold most of the time they have to for it to be a good move. They also can hang in hand they shouldn't hang in knowing the other guy has hit nothing, wait for their bluff then pot commit them or crush them with a re-raise.

It wasn't really in the tourney portions of the game. The cheating there is all software based that encourages aggressive play and re-buying into the games as well as giving bad players a leg up to feel they have more of a chance than they do. An example of this is you have AA and a guy has 55 and calls your agressive raises and re-raises. Odds are they are NOT going to hit a 5 in real life however the site can and I believe they DID adjust on the fly and dealt the guy a 5 on purpose just to give him a jolt of oh boy.

That's what good players can tell is wrong that stuff does happen but it's NOT THE RULE except on these sites. That kind of thing was happening way too often to be attributed to chance. That is akin to the kind of cheating I'd be worried about in fantasy sports online.

I've played on enough sites to know when I'm being cheated. The sites based in England were the best because they are regulated. They must show their source codes and pass some tests to stay legit.

Sites that take American players were already starting off shady at best and since it's not technically legal who's going to say anything?

I have stats prior to it being banned and afterwards. It was night and day.

Mostly because immediately the best sites dumped American players and made you leave.

I was making good cash at it then the bottom dropped out and yes you can adjust your game to it but i wouldn't recommend that because if you do you're distorting your game possibly forever to be tilted in a way that means you won't win much in real games.

I only play in person now because it's harder for them to cheat. It's not impossible though there have been times I know dealers are cheating it's just not very easy to catch them unless you want to make a huge deal but there are crooked in person dealers as well.

Mostly they'll just wipe the table quickly and say you lost and a few good players will remember the hand and tell you to ask the pit boss and the tape will show you actually won.

It's done on purpose and generally they are colluding with a player at the table they know which is why they switch dealers so often in poker.

My specialty is large multi table no limit holdem and limit holdem tourneys.

Pay a little to get in and grind your way to the final table if you can. The return on that is pretty huge if you get good at it and I was making a few thousand a month at it regularly.

It's boring work though it gets very tedious and it's only exciting when you get to the final 100 or so. There are stages to it and if I were to play say sit and go's or to play just normal non-tourney holdem I'd get crushed by those that specialize in that.

If you play tons of poker you will get bad beats but if they start being the rule and not the exception it's fixed end of story.

In terms of this stuff I would guess that the advantage to the house is more of the psychology and pre-knowledge variety.

I'll give you an example of what I believe is possible.

If you put people into random leagues and you know who is picking what you can see any holes left in their collective game and devise a roster that is different from all theirs so that if your bot team hits it will clean out everyone else.

You can develop and algo that simply examines the league wide rosters and on the fly in the blink of an eye sits a bot player in that league complete with phoney profile and all and generates a roster for that bot that is specifically designed to pick players with good value that other players don't have much of.

I would also argue you could be sitting alone if the assignment is random among ALL bot players. You being the only human being really there. I have no idea that's just my opinion on what would be possible for them to do.

I would expect them actually if we're still imagining how this would go to sit the optimum number of humans by skill level and based on who they pick with some kind of recursive algo that might shift you around about to gain maximum money out of you. Including letting you win a little to start thus hooking you in so that you pay in massively more than if they just bounce you to start.

The possibilities if they are crooked are ENDLESS and all you have to do to find crooked people is to sit out huge pots of money and they will be there like flies on crap.

Bot team does not hit no harm done you pay the real winner and still collect the rake.

Bot team hits you collect ALL their money and the rake too.

Multiply this over thousands of leagues it's huge money.

What I have just described is TRIVIALLY easy to do. In fact it's so easy that if the place did not have some assurances that would specifically make it hard to impossible I personally wouldn't play because that is EXACTLY how I believe something like those sites would make TONS of extra cash over and above the rake which to any sane person should be enough.

Greed being what greed is though I don't trust them unless they are HIGHLY and EFFECTIVELY regulated.

 

[MadCardDisease]

I'm not sure there's a way to cheat that effectively at these fantasy sites? They don't know the outcome in advance, yes they can see who you have but unless they are able to change a lineup, after the fact, not sure how they can cheat as effectively as was done with Poker. That's why I never got into online poker and still wouldn't now. I'm just not convinced there is any way to know if the other players are cheating.

Yeah they would still have to field a winning team and if they did then they deserve the money. I highly doubt they would even try to play.

I think they net 5% from every game and are just rolling in the money. Clearly with the amount of comercials they are purchasing, cash flow isn't a problem.

 

[conraddobler]

Yeah they would still have to field a winning team and if they did then they deserve the money. I highly doubt they would even try to play.

I think they net 5% from every game and are just rolling in the money. Clearly with the amount of comercials they are purchasing, cash flow isn't a problem.

I would remain skeptical because it's based on software and the amount of possible cheating is vastly expanded.

 

[MadCardDisease]

The cost of them playing is that a real player isn't buying in.

They have no real buy-in cost.

So if they examine all the players in a league it would be trivially easy to assemble a roster that had x more value than any player in the league.

If they won only 10% of those times.

That ups their profit margin tremendously. Remember they have all the stats and they know what winning rosters typically look like.

It would not be hard to win in a ten person league more often than one tenth of the time.

Especially if they could identify all the bad players and pool them up.

I think you guys are dismissing a lot of the possibilities here. This is all based on percentages.

First of all you pick your league. They don't pool up players in random leagues.

As for them playing for free. Lets say it's a 10 person league at $2 each. The final payout would be like $19 no matter how many "bots" you add. How are they playing for free? If they don't win they still have to pay the winner the $19. How is that playing for free?

You can see the rosters of the other teams when the games start so they can't cheat there. There is an element of luck in fantasy football. Just because you project a player like Demarco Murry to have 12 points this week doesn't garentee he is going to even get close to that.

It makes no sense for them to even try to compete when all they have to do is sit back and collect.

 

[Beaver]

http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id...transparency-integrity-daily-fantasy-industry

 

[Rivercard]

http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id...transparency-integrity-daily-fantasy-industry

Wow. Looks like Conrad nailed it.

 

[Russ Smith]

Wow. Looks like Conrad nailed it.

exactly what he said except apparently using each others sites.

 

[Russ Smith]

I would remain skeptical because it's based on software and the amount of possible cheating is vastly expanded.

you were 100% right

 

[splitsecond]

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[MrYeahBut]

The U.S. Department of Justice and FBI are in the preliminary stage of an investigation into daily fantasy sports operators, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal.

The newspaper, citing an anonymous source, reported Wednesday night that FBI agents from the Boston office have been contacting customers of daily fantasy operator DraftKings. The Department of Justice reportedly is looking into whether daily fantasy sports is a form of gambling. Daily fantasy operators have been persistent about it being a game of skill and point to language in the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 in regards to their legality.

http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id...ary-stages-investigating-daily-fantasy-sports

 

[splitsecond]

All they had to do was not have so many damn commercials and they would have been left alone. But now they have annoyed everyone and the government wants their cut.

 

[dylanbw]

First of all you pick your league. They don't pool up players in random leagues.

As for them playing for free. Lets say it's a 10 person league at $2 each. The final payout would be like $19 no matter how many "bots" you add. How are they playing for free? If they don't win they still have to pay the winner the $19. How is that playing for free?

You can see the rosters of the other teams when the games start so they can't cheat there. There is an element of luck in fantasy football. Just because you project a player like Demarco Murry to have 12 points this week doesn't garentee he is going to even get close to that.

It makes no sense for them to even try to compete when all they have to do is sit back and collect.

Thus far, despite playing true season long roto for 20+ years, I have yet to dip my toes in the DFS waters. Since it sounds like you have played, what I really want to know is for the Ownership Percentage information that the employee leaked and caused a huge sh#tstorm -- why is that info not public to begin with? If DK and FD want to appear above board, why not operate just like season long leagues, which make ownership percentages visible to all players? Granted, those figures change literally every second of the day but the public really should have those real time figures available to them when setting their lineups. Its positively unconscionable that employees could see that information and simply tell their friends who the "undervalued" plays were.

And to those saying, BIG DAILY FANTASY should not have obnoxiously bought every available piece of advertising I completely agree. They should have been more discreet with their scam.

 

[NoelPHX]

Its officially illegal in Nevada now until they apply for a gaming license.

 

[NJCardFan]

The gambling loophole involves in calling it a game of skill rather than chance. You are also not betting against the house but against the other players in your "league". The house just takes a cut.

Not 100% sure of this, but I believe that in Arizona, even season long leagues that are played for money are technically illegal according to the letter of the law. That's why they say residents of Arizona are not eligible for cash leagues. It's not really enforced though on a casual level, but commercial enterprises would be a lot more problematic.

Does this include the Yahoo money leagues?

 

[Folster]

It seems that a simple remedy to the insider information issue would be to give everyone real time access to a player's usage or percentage played. That would eliminate any advantage that the game makers would have. It would also make things more interesting IMO as it would become another variable to factor.

 

[dylanbw]

It seems that a simple remedy to the insider information issue would be to give everyone real time access to a player's usage or percentage played. That would eliminate any advantage that the game makers would have. It would also make things more interesting IMO as it would become another variable to factor.

Agreed. Hopefully that move happens with the recent establishment of:


Head Of New Fantasy Sports Control Agency Seth Harris Says This Is Not A PR Stunt:

"Seth Harris, named late yesterday as the head of the newly formed Fantasy Sports Control Agency, said the new effort at self-regulation by the fantasy sports industry was not merely a public relations ploy. “If this was just a PR stunt, I wouldn’t be involved,” said Harris, the former acting U.S. Secretary of Labor who currently is with public policy group Dentons. “We have recognized the game has changed fundamentally. This is now a business with billions of dollars, tens of millions of players, and lots of high-profile partners. And there is a need to take on issues of ethics and responsibility, and I’m absolutely in this for the long haul.” The Fantasy Sports Trade Association, which has a long relationship with Dentons, announced the FSCA and Harris’ appointment following a recent spate of governmental inquires and lawsuits surrounding daily fantasy sports. The FSCA will seek to create a series of industry standards, control mechanisms and enforcement measures, and if successful, will lead the public sector to ease its current stance toward the fantasy sports business. “My hope is that government will look instead to invest in problems where there is a real need for involvement as opposed to an industry that is looking to self-regulate,” Harris said. The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), a private self-regulatory body for brokerage firms and exchange markets, represents something of a parallel to the aims of the FSCA. But Harris said he was not yet certain how similar the new fantasy sports group will be to FINRA in form and function."

 

[SoCal Cardfan]

I don't know how diehard fans can like fantasy football..I played one season years ago, I felt so conflicted needing a skill player have the game of his life vs my Cards.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

I don't know how diehard fans can like fantasy football..I played one season years ago, I felt so conflicted needing a skill player have the game of his life vs my Cards.

Just do like this guy, problem solved .

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

 

[gmabel830]

Chris Christie takes this **** seriously!!

 

[Bert]

Is this a thing? Draft Kings and Fan Duel? I had no idea. It's not like I've seen 9 BILLION commercials for it so far during football season.

I mean seriously, what is the freaking advertising budget for these companies? Do people think they are really going to get rich off this? They obviously aren't paying that much money out if they can afford to sponsor EVERY NFL GAME and the halftime show, and the instant replay and the coaches challenge, and the first timout of every quarter...

Now if you'll excuse me I have to take a bathroom break, brought to you by Draftkings.com.